New Jersey (NJ) Poll * June 19, 2002 * GOP Challenger In Striking Dis - Quinnipiac University

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June 19, 2002 - GOP Challenger In Striking Distance Of Torricelli, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Senate Race Pits Unknown Vs. Unliked


Republican challenger Douglas Forrester trails Democratic incumbent Robert Torricelli 44 – 36 percent among registered voters as the New Jersey Senate race opens, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
Sen. Torricelli is limping along with a negative 35 – 37 percent approval rating, matching his low point from a July 5, 2001, poll by the independent Quinnipiac University. He also has a negative favorability rating, his first such negative this year.
Democrats back Torricelli 79 – 6 percent, while Republicans back Forrester 79 – 11 percent. New Jersey's pivotal independent voters are split 37 – 36 percent for Forrester.
A bright spot for Torricelli is his 46 – 27 percent lead among women voters; men back Forrester by a slim 46 – 41 percent margin.
"Sen. Torricelli has a comfortable lead now, but the poll shows this could become a horse race down the road. The senator is vulnerable. For the first time this year, more voters have an unfavorable opinion of him than favorable and voters are evenly split on whether he has the honesty and integrity to serve as Senator," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
Torricelli had a 37 – 34 percent approval rating in an April 24 Quinnipiac University poll, compared to his 41 – 26 percent approval in a March 6 poll.
Torricelli gets a negative 21 – 26 percent favorability rating; 23 percent of voters have a mixed opinion of their Senator and 30 percent say they don't know enough to form an opinion.
The favorability rating for Forrester is 12 – 4 percent favorable, with 10 percent mixed and 73 percent who say they don't know enough to form an opinion.
By a 63 – 17 percent margin, voters say Torricelli has the "experience to serve effectively as a U.S. Senator." Forrester has the experience, voters say 29 – 17 percent, with 54 percent undecided.
Forrester has the "honesty and integrity to serve effectively as a U.S. Senator," voters say 37 – 9 percent, with 54 percent undecided. Torricelli gets a 37 – 37 percent split on honesty and integrity, with 27 percent undecided.
"Despite spending all those millions of his own money and despite winning the Republican primary, 73 percent of the voters say they still don't know Doug Forrester. That's always the problem for a challenger in New Jersey, getting statewide name recognition," Richards said.
In Quinnipiac University's new geographical picture of New Jersey, Torricelli is ahead in Hudson and Essex counties and the curve of suburban counties from Bergen through Mercer. The regions are:
Urban – Essex and Hudson counties; Suburban – Bergen, Passaic, Union, Middlesex, Mercer; Exurban – Somerset, Morris, Warren, Sussex, Hunterdon; Phillyland – Camden, Cumberland, Salem, Gloucester, Burlington, Cape May; Shore – Monmouth, Ocean, Atlantic.
From June 11 - 17, Quinnipiac University surveyed 736 New Jersey registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percent.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut and nationally as a public service and for research.
For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu
2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert Torricelli is handling his job as United States Senator?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HouseHld Approve 35% 21% 47% 36% 37% 34% 44% Disapprove 37 53 19 45 43 31 28 DK/NA 28 27 33 20 19 35 28 Tot Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn PhllyLnd Shore Approve 35% 35% 37% 25% 41% 34% Disapprove 37 24 40 48 27 44 DK/NA 28 40 22 28 33 22
3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jon Corzine is handling his job as United States Senator?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HouseHld Approve 46% 37% 54% 49% 50% 43% 46% Disapprove 18 23 10 21 23 14 18 DK/NA 36 40 36 30 27 43 36 Tot Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn PhllyLnd Shore Approve 46% 55% 46% 43% 45% 43% Disapprove 18 9 18 27 17 21 DK/NA 36 36 36 30 38 36
4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HouseHld Approve 73% 91% 61% 71% 76% 70% 79% Disapprove 21 6 31 21 17 24 18 DK/NA 7 2 8 9 8 6 3 Tot Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn PhllyLnd Shore Approve 73% 68% 74% 83% 68% 72% Disapprove 21 24 21 10 27 18 DK/NA 7 8 5 7 4 10
7. Is your opinion of businessman Douglas Forrester favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HouseHld Favorable 12% 20% 4% 14% 16% 8% 9% Unfavorable 4 2 7 3 4 5 5 Mixed 10 9 7 12 9 10 13 Hvn't hrd enough 73 69 81 70 70 76 71 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1 - 2 Tot Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn PhllyLnd Shore Favorable 12% 6% 14% 20% 8% 10% Unfavorable 4 7 4 - 4 6 Mixed 10 9 9 12 9 11 Hvn't hrd enough 73 78 73 67 76 72 REFUSED 1 - - - 2 1
8. Is your opinion of United States Senator Robert Torricelli favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HouseHld Favorable 21% 13% 28% 20% 24% 18% 23% Unfavorable 26 45 8 32 34 19 25 Mixed 23 13 26 25 24 23 27 Hvn't hrd enough 30 28 37 23 18 41 26 REFUSED - - - - - - - Tot Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn PhllyLnd Shore Favorable 21% 24% 22% 16% 18% 22% Unfavorable 26 16 29 37 15 32 Mixed 23 17 25 23 28 19 Hvn't hrd enough 30 42 24 25 40 27 REFUSED - - - - - -
9. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Robert Torricelli the Democrat and Douglas Forrester the Republican for whom would you vote?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HouseHld Torricelli 44 11 79 36 41 46 51 Forrester 36 79 6 37 46 27 34 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 1 2 2 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 2 6 2 4 1 DK/NA 16 9 12 19 8 22 11 Tot Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn PhllyLnd Shore Torricelli 44 59 46 26 48 34 Forrester 36 17 34 56 32 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 2 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 3 3 3 2 DK/NA 16 18 15 14 15 17
19. Do you think Douglas Forrester has the experience to serve effectively as a United States Senator or not?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HouseHld Yes 29% 47% 13% 34% 39% 21% 23% No 17 8 24 17 18 16 19 DK/NA 54 44 64 49 43 63 58 Tot Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn PhllyLnd Shore Yes 29% 20% 27% 38% 28% 37% No 17 15 21 11 22 11 DK/NA 54 65 52 51 50 52
20. Do you think Robert Torricelli has the experience to serve effectively as a United States Senator or not?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HouseHld Yes 63% 53% 71% 66% 70% 57% 61% No 17 26 5 23 22 13 17 DK/NA 20 21 24 11 8 30 22 Tot Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn PhllyLnd Shore Yes 63% 62% 69% 59% 63% 56% No 17 12 16 23 13 25 DK/NA 20 27 15 18 24 19
21. Do you think Douglas Forrester has the honesty and integrity to serve effectively as a United States Senator or not?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HouseHld Yes 37% 60% 21% 39% 47% 29% 35% No 9 4 14 5 9 9 7 DK/NA 54 36 65 56 44 62 58 Tot Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn PhllyLnd Shore Yes 37% 31% 37% 44% 31% 44% No 9 7 9 4 15 8 DK/NA 54 62 53 52 54 49
22. Do you think Robert Torricelli has the honesty and integrity to serve effectively as a United States Senator or not?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HouseHld Yes 37% 22% 55% 32% 40% 34% 41% No 37 56 17 44 43 31 34 DK/NA 27 22 28 25 17 35 24 Tot Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn PhllyLnd Shore Yes 37% 42% 42% 25% 37% 32% No 37 25 37 53 28 44 DK/NA 27 33 22 22 35 24