New Jersey (NJ) Poll * September 12, 2002 * Forrester Ahead By A Nose In N - Quinnipiac University

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September 12, 2002 - Forrester Ahead By A Nose In New Jersey Horse Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Most Vote Against Torricelli, Not For Challenger


New Jersey likely voters give Republican challenger Douglas Forrester a narrow 48 - 44 percent lead over Democratic incumbent Robert Torricelli in New Jersey's U.S. Senate race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This tally includes likely voters who are leaning toward one of the candidates.
This is the first look at likely voters. Among registered voters, without leaners, Sen. Torricelli gets 42 percent to Forrester's 38 percent. In an August 8 poll of registered voters by the independent Quinnipiac University, the candidates were tied with 37 percent each.
Democratic likely voters back Torricelli 75 - 17 percent, while Republicans back Forrester 81 - 14 percent. Independent likely voters back Forrester 54 - 36 percent.
Torricelli's approval rating is a negative 31 - 47 percent among registered voters.
"Right now, it's Torricelli versus Torricelli with Forrester on the sidelines watching. An amazing 72 percent of Forrester voters say they are really voting against Torricelli," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Fewer than one in three voters say the Senator has the honesty and integrity to be effective in his job. In the month since he was 'severely admonished' by the Senate Ethics Committee, Torricelli has done little to improve his numbers. But Forrester's low name recognition has hardly budged since he won the primary."
Only 24 percent of the likely voters backing the Republican say theirs is a pro- Forrester vote, while 72 percent say their vote is mainly against Torricelli.
Among Torricelli's backers, 66 percent say they are mainly for the Democrat, while 21 percent are mainly against Forrester.
Torricelli's favorability rating among registered voters is a negative 14 - 34 percent; 26 percent of voters have a mixed opinion of their Senator and 25 percent say they don't know enough to form an opinion.
Forrester gets a 12 - 5 percent favorability rating, with 11 percent mixed and 71 percent who say they don't know enough to form an opinion, virtually unchanged from Quinnipiac University's June 19 and August 8 polls.
By a 61 - 22 percent margin, voters say Torricelli has the "experience to serve effectively as a U.S. Senator." Forrester has the experience, voters say 33 - 18 percent, with 49 percent undecided.
Forrester has the "honesty and integrity to serve effectively as a U.S. Senator," voters say 42 - 11 percent, with 48 percent undecided. Torricelli gets a negative 30 - 46 percent score on honesty and integrity, with 24 percent undecided.
To keep Democrats from losing control of the U.S. Senate, 31 percent of New Jersey registered voters say they are more likely to vote for Torricelli, while 16 percent are less likely and 48 percent say control of the Senate has little effect on how they vote.
Senate Ethics Committee action against Torricelli leaves 5 percent more likely to vote for him, with 46 percent less likely and 44 percent saying it will have little effect.
From September 3 - 10, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,341 New Jersey registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percent, the sample includes 861 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percent.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut and nationally as a public service and for research.
For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks.
1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way James McGreevey is handling his job as Governor?
REGISTERED VOTERS .................................. Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHold Approve 41% 28% 54% 37% 44% 38% 39% Disapprove 36 54 21 40 39 35 40 DK/NA 23 18 25 23 17 28 21 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 48% 43% 42% 36% 34% Disapprove 22 33 38 42 48 DK/NA 29 24 20 22 18
2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert Torricelli is handling his job as United States Senator?
REGISTERED VOTERS .................................. Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHold Approve 31% 20% 41% 28% 31% 31% 35% Disapprove 47 63 29 55 54 41 48 DK/NA 22 17 30 17 15 28 17 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 35% 34% 30% 27% 28% Disapprove 40 46 51 43 54 DK/NA 25 21 18 30 19
3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jon Corzine is handling his job as United States Senator?
REGISTERED VOTERS .................................. Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHold Approve 47% 38% 53% 49% 47% 47% 52% Disapprove 19 30 10 20 26 14 19 DK/NA 33 32 36 31 27 39 29 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 42% 51% 47% 47% 45% Disapprove 19 18 23 15 23 DK/NA 39 31 30 38 32
4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
REGISTERED VOTERS .................................. Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHold Approve 64% 89% 48% 60% 64% 63% 64% Disapprove 30 9 46 32 31 30 30 DK/NA 6 1 6 9 5 7 6 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 53% 60% 74% 64% 72% Disapprove 37 35 24 27 24 DK/NA 10 5 2 9 4
5. How much attention have you been paying to the campaign for Senator? A lot, some, only a little, or none at all?
REGISTERED VOTERS .................................. Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHold A lot 15% 12% 13% 18% 20% 11% 18% Some 35 40 31 38 38 32 32 Only a little 34 34 38 29 29 37 33 None at all 16 15 17 15 13 19 16 DK/NA - - 1 - - 1 - Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore A lot 20% 12% 10% 15% 18% Some 26 36 39 33 37 Only a little 35 34 34 33 33 None at all 17 18 16 18 12 DK/NA 1 - 1 1 -
6. Is your opinion of businessman Douglas Forrester favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
REGISTERED VOTERS .................................. Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHold Favorable 12% 21% 5% 13% 16% 8% 10% Unfavorable 5 3 8 4 5 6 7 Mixed 11 12 9 13 13 10 14 Hvn't hrd enough 71 64 77 68 66 75 69 REFUSED 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Favorable 6% 13% 10% 11% 16% Unfavorable 5 5 5 6 5 Mixed 10 10 13 10 15 Hvn't hrd enough 76 71 70 72 64 REFUSED 3 1 1 1 -
7. Is your opinion of United States Senator Robert Torricelli favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
REGISTERED VOTERS .................................. Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHold Favorable 14% 7% 20% 13% 15% 13% 19% Unfavorable 34 51 16 43 41 27 33 Mixed 26 24 28 27 25 28 27 Hvn't hrd enough 25 19 36 16 18 31 21 REFUSED 1 - - 1 - 1 - Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Favorable 23% 13% 13% 12% 11% Unfavorable 22 34 38 35 39 Mixed 23 30 25 23 28 Hvn't hrd enough 32 22 22 29 22 REFUSED - 1 1 1 -
8. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Robert Torricelli the Democrat and Douglas Forrester the Republican for whom would you vote? (Registered voters)
REGISTERED VOTERS .................................. Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHold Torricelli 42% 11% 71% 33% 39% 44% 48% Forrester 38 74 13 42 45 33 33 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 2 4 3 3 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 3 3 2 4 3 DK/NA 14 9 12 18 11 17 13 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Torricelli 56% 42% 33% 37% 39% Forrester 24 38 47 43 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 4 2 2 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 2 2 4 DK/NA 15 12 16 17 13
8. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Robert Torricelli the Democrat and Douglas Forrester the Republican for whom would you vote? (Registered voters) (If undecided/wouldn't vote/someone else) As of today, do you lean more to Torricelli or Forrester? This table includes 'Leaners'
REGISTERED VOTERS (Includes Leaners)................... Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHold Torricelli 45% 12% 73% 36% 42% 47% 52% Forrester 41 79 15 45 47 36 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 3 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 DK/NA 11 7 9 14 7 14 11 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Torricelli 59% 43% 36% 44% 43% Forrester 26 42 50 44 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 3 3 - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 2 1 1 DK/NA 10 11 10 11 10
8. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Robert Torricelli the Democrat and Douglas Forrester the Republican for whom would you vote? (Likely Voters)
LIKELY VOTERS.......................................... Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHold Torricelli 41% 12% 72% 33% 38% 45% 49% Forrester 45 79 15 52 51 39 38 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 2 3 2 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 DK/NA 9 6 9 12 7 12 8 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Torricelli 58% 42% 34% 39% 36% Forrester 26 43 53 49 53 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 4 1 1 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 2 - 2 DK/NA 10 10 11 11 6
8. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Robert Torricelli the Democrat and Douglas Forrester the Republican for whom would you vote? (Likely Voters) (If undecided/wouldn't vote/someone else) As of today, do you lean more to Torricelli or Forrester? This table includes 'Leaners'
LIKELY VOTERS (Includes Leaners)....................... Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHold Torricelli 44% 14% 75% 36% 40% 48% 51% Forrester 48 81 17 54 53 43 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 2 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 - 1 DK/NA 6 3 5 8 5 7 7 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Torricelli 64% 42% 35% 44% 39% Forrester 29 47 54 51 56 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 1 - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 2 - - DK/NA 4 7 8 5 3
9. Are you very sure about voting for (candidate choice) or might you change your mind before the election?
REGISTERED............ LIKELY................ Torricelli Forrester Torricelli Forrester supporters supporters supporters supporters Very sure 49% 58% 58% 66% Might change 49 41 40 33 DK/NA 2 2 2 2
10. Would you say that your choice is more a vote for (candidate choice), or more a vote against (other candidate)?
REGISTERED............ LIKELY................ Torricelli Forrester Torricelli Forrester supporters supporters supporters supporters For your candidate 65% 26% 66% 24% Against other candidate 19 69 21 72 DK/NA 16 5 14 4
11. Do you think Douglas Forrester has the experience to serve effectively as a United States Senator or not?
REGISTERED VOTERS .................................. Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHold Yes 33% 55% 21% 31% 40% 27% 31% No 18 7 24 18 20 15 22 DK/NA 49 39 55 52 40 58 47 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Yes 25% 33% 34% 36% 37% No 24 16 16 14 20 DK/NA 51 51 50 51 43
12. Do you think Robert Torricelli has the experience to serve effectively as a United States Senator or not?
REGISTERED VOTERS .................................. Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHold Yes 61% 53% 69% 59% 63% 59% 65% No 22 33 12 25 26 19 22 DK/NA 17 14 19 16 11 22 13 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Yes 60% 66% 58% 58% 56% No 19 20 25 19 30 DK/NA 21 14 17 23 14
13. Do you think Douglas Forrester has the honesty and integrity to serve effectively as a United States Senator or not?
REGISTERED VOTERS .................................. Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHold Yes 42% 62% 28% 44% 51% 34% 39% No 11 4 14 11 11 11 18 DK/NA 48 34 58 45 39 55 44 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Yes 35% 42% 42% 43% 46% No 14 11 11 7 11 DK/NA 51 48 46 50 43
14. Do you think Robert Torricelli has the honesty and integrity to serve effectively as a United States Senator or not?
REGISTERED VOTERS .................................. Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHold Yes 30% 18% 41% 24% 29% 30% 31% No 46 64 29 54 53 40 50 DK/NA 24 18 30 21 18 30 19 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Yes 37% 30% 24% 34% 24% No 35 49 52 39 53 DK/NA 28 22 24 27 22
15. Douglas Forrester made his fortune as a CEO in the pharmaceutical industry. Does this make you more likely to vote for Forrester, less likely to vote for Forrester, or doesn't it have much effect one way or the other?
REGISTERED VOTERS .................................. Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHold More likely 8% 13% 4% 9% 9% 6% 5% Less likely 15 6 20 18 16 15 19 Not much effect 72 79 69 68 70 73 72 DK/NA 5 2 7 5 5 5 4 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore More likely 8% 6% 9% 9% 8% Less likely 17 16 14 15 14 Not much effect 70 72 76 71 72 DK/NA 5 6 2 5 6
16. If Robert Torricelli loses the election, the Democrats could lose control of the Senate. Does this make you more likely to vote for Torricelli, less likely to vote for Torricelli, or doesn't it have much effect one way or the other?
REGISTERED VOTERS .................................. Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHold More likely 31% 9% 58% 20% 31% 31% 35% Less likely 16 39 3 13 17 15 16 Not much effect 48 50 34 62 49 48 47 DK/NA 4 2 5 4 3 5 2 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore More likely 43% 34% 26% 24% 28% Less likely 13 15 18 17 19 Not much effect 38 47 54 56 49 DK/NA 7 4 3 3 4
17. The Senate Ethics committee severely admonished Senator Torricelli for his dealings with convicted businessman David Chang. Does this make you more likely to vote for Torricelli, less likely to vote for Torricelli, or doesn't it have much effect one way or the other?
REGISTERED VOTERS .................................. Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHold More likely 5% 1% 9% 3% 6% 4% 6% Less likely 46 66 29 52 49 44 45 Not much effect 44 31 54 41 41 46 45 DK/NA 5 2 8 4 4 6 4 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore More likely 9% 3% 5% 2% 6% Less likely 38 48 48 46 49 Not much effect 46 45 43 48 37 DK/NA 7 4 4 5 8