New Jersey (NJ) Poll * August 24, 2000 * Gore Gets Convention Bounce To - Quinnipiac University

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August 24, 2000 - Gore Gets Convention Bounce To Lead In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Shift In Corzine-Franks Race Shows Soft Support


Vice President Al Gore has bounced back to a 52 - 38 percent lead over Texas Gov. George W. Bush among New Jersey voters, pulling ahead in what had become a close race, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today.
In June 28 and July 26 polls by the independent Quinnipiac University, Bush had closed to within five points of Gore. Earlier polls showed Gore with double-digit leads.
If the Reform Party's Pat Buchanan and the Green Party's Ralph Nader are in the race, Gore gets 49 percent to 37 percent for Bush, with 1 percent for Buchanan and 4 percent for Nader.
From August 18 - 22, Quinnipiac University surveyed 802 New Jersey registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percent.
"Vice President Gore got just what he needed from the convention -- decent viewership, a more unified Democratic party, a whopping 16-point bounce in favorability among women voters, and another 10 points in favorability among independents. For the moment, he's even drawn a few Republicans from Gov. Bush," said Quinnipiac University Political Science Professor Scott McLean.
"But post-convention bounces are by nature temporary. If Bush ever had the New Jersey bounce, we can't see it now. Gore has to hope that his convention creates a new issue-based dynamic in the race, and not just a temporary spike in favorability."
Gore's favorability among New Jersey voters is 51 - 27 percent, with 20 percent mixed and 2 percent saying they haven't heard enough to form an opinion, a big jump from Gore's 39 - 34 percent favorability rating in the July 26 Quinnipiac University poll.
Bush's favorability is 36 - 38 percent, with 22 percent mixed and 4 percent saying they haven't heard enough to form an opinion, virtually unchanged from July 26.
Democratic running mate Joseph Lieberman's favorability is 45 - 8 percent, with 19 percent mixed and 27 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.
By a 23 - 8 percent margin, New Jersey voters say Gore's selection of Lieberman improves their opinion of Gore, while 67 percent say it does not affect their opinion. Senate Race
In New Jersey's U.S. Senate race, Democrat Jon Corzine leads Republican Bob Franks 43 - 35 percent, with 19 percent undecided. Previous polls had shown Corzine with larger leads, but voters said they were paying little or no attention to the race so far.
Corzine's favorability is 19 - 17 percent, with 24 percent mixed and 39 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.
Franks has a 13 - 6 percent favorability, with 11 percent mixed and 70 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.
"The decrease in Corzine's lead has to be encouraging for Franks. But there really hasn't been any shift in the fundamental facts of the campaign: Voters, especially independents, are still not paying much attention to the race, and they don't know much about Franks," Dr. McLean said.
"The difference now is that more independents are saying they don't know enough about Corzine, either. The luster of Corzine's big June primary win is wearing off among independents, and now his support is getting as soft as Franks'."
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut as a public service and for research.
For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu
1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Christine Whitman is handling her job as Governor of New Jersey?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 56% 70% 47% 55% 52% 59% Disapprove 33 22 43 31 38 28 DK/NA 12 8 10 14 9 14
2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton is handling his job as President?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 63% 31% 89% 60% 57% 68% Disapprove 35 65 10 38 41 29 DK/NA 2 3 1 2 2 3
3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert Torricelli is handling his job as United States Senator?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 38% 26% 50% 37% 32% 43% Disapprove 28 44 15 29 39 18 DK/NA 34 30 35 34 29 39
4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Frank Lautenberg is handling his job as United States Senator?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 51% 41% 64% 47% 46% 56% Disapprove 21 33 10 23 30 13 DK/NA 28 26 26 30 24 32
5. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for United States Senator -- a lot, some, only a little, or none at all?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom A lot 19% 22% 19% 17% 21% 17% Some 31 36 29 31 34 28 Only a little 35 30 38 35 31 39 None at all 15 12 15 17 13 16 DK/NA - - - - 1 -
6. Is your opinion of Bob Franks favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 13% 24% 8% 11% 17% 10% Unfavorable 6 1 9 6 8 3 Mixed 11 12 10 13 11 11 Hvn't hrd enough 70 63 73 70 63 75 REFUSED 1 - - 1 1 -
7. Is your opinion of Jon Corzine favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 19% 12% 25% 17% 21% 16% Unfavorable 17 28 11 18 24 12 Mixed 24 25 26 21 19 28 Hvn't hrd enough 39 35 37 45 36 43 REFUSED 1 1 - - 1 1
8. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Jon Corzine the Democrat and Bob Franks the Republican for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Corzine 43% 12% 74% 34% 41% 44% Franks 35 73 8 34 41 29 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 3 4 4 4 DK/NA 19 11 15 28 14 23
9. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for President -- a lot, some, only a little, or none at all?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom A lot 53% 56% 54% 52% 55% 52% Some 34 35 32 37 32 37 Only a little 10 7 12 9 11 9 None at all 3 2 2 2 3 3 DK/NA - - - - - -
10. Is your opinion of Al Gore favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 51% 20% 83% 44% 42% 59% Unfavorable 27 55 6 28 37 18 Mixed 20 22 10 25 20 21 Haven't hrd enough 2 2 1 2 2 2 REFUSED - - - - - -
11. Is your opinion of George W. Bush favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 36% 71% 12% 35% 43% 31% Unfavorable 38 10 63 35 34 41 Mixed 22 17 20 26 20 23 Haven't hrd enough 4 2 5 3 3 4 REFUSED - - - - - 1
12. Is your opinion of Pat Buchanan favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 7% 10% 4% 10% 10% 6% Unfavorable 57 49 65 57 57 57 Mixed 19 25 12 20 20 17 Haven't hrd enough 16 16 19 13 12 20 REFUSED 1 - 1 - 1 1
13. Is your opinion of Ralph Nader favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 20% 12% 21% 22% 19% 20% Unfavorable 27 35 23 27 32 22 Mixed 23 22 23 25 23 24 Haven't hrd enough 30 31 31 25 26 34 REFUSED - - 1 - - 1
14. If the election for President were being held today and the candidates were Al Gore the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Gore 52% 15% 87% 46% 45% 58% Bush 38 81 6 38 46 30 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 3 3 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 3 1 1 DK/NA 7 3 5 11 5 9
15. If the election for President were being held today and the candidates were Al Gore the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, Pat Buchanan the Reform Party candidate and Ralph Nader the Green Party candidate for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Gore 49% 13% 85% 42% 42% 56% Bush 37 80 6 36 45 30 Buchanan 1 2 - 3 2 1 Nader 4 2 4 6 4 4 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 1 1 DK/NA 7 3 3 10 5 8
17. Is your opinion of Dick Cheney favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 37% 63% 13% 42% 43% 31% Unfavorable 14 1 26 11 15 12 Mixed 22 16 28 19 20 24 Hvn't hrd enough 27 20 32 27 21 33 REFUSED - - 1 - - -
18. Is your opinion of Joseph Lieberman favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 45% 29% 59% 44% 43% 47% Unfavorable 8 12 4 10 13 4 Mixed 19 29 12 19 21 18 Hvn't hrd enough 27 29 24 27 23 31 REFUSED - - - - - -
19. Does Gore's selection of Joseph Lieberman as his running mate affect your opinion of Gore or not? Does it make your opinion of Gore more favorable or less favorable?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes/More favorable 23% 14% 34% 21% 19% 27% Yes/Less favorable 8 10 5 8 10 5 No/Doesn't affect opinion 67 74 60 68 70 64 DK/NA 2 2 1 2 1 3
20. How much attention did you pay to the Democratic National Convention? A lot, some, only a little, or none at all?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom A lot 26% 19% 37% 23% 24% 29% Some 33 31 34 32 32 33 Only a little 24 29 18 27 27 22 None at all 17 22 11 17 18 16 DK/NA - - - - - -
21. Did you watch Al Gore's nomination acceptance speech on television?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 57% 47% 70% 52% 54% 60% No 42 52 29 47 45 39 DK/NA - 1 - - 1 -
22. Did Gore's speech affect your opinion of Gore or not? Did it make your opinion of Gore more favorable or less favorable?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes/More favorable 42% 18% 57% 40% 35% 47% Yes/Less favorable 4 13 1 4 6 3 No/Didn't affect opinion 53 69 42 56 58 49 DK/NA - - 1 1 - 1