New Jersey (NJ) Poll * January 26, 2005 * Codey Has Strong Start In New - Quinnipiac University

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January 26, 2005 - Codey Has Strong Start In New Jersey Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; He Narrows Gap With Corzine And Tops GOP Contenders

New Jersey Acting Governor Richard Codey is off to a strong start, with a 59 - 9 percent approval rating and a strong position in this year's governor's race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
In a Democratic primary, Gov. Codey trails U.S. Sen. Jon Corzine 43 - 33 percent, compared to a 60 - 20 percent gap in a Nov. 17, 2004, poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.
Codey beats two possible Republican challengers 2 - 1:
54 - 26 percent over Bret Schundler; 53 - 25 percent over Douglas Forrester.
Corzine also runs well against the Republicans:
52 - 28 percent over Bret Schundler; 51 - 29 percent over Douglas Forrester.
Among Republican voters, Schundler and Forrester are tied at 32 percent each with 29 percent undecided.
"If Acting Governor Richard Codey decides to seek a full term, he could give multi-millionaire Sen. Jon Corzine a real run for his money," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Since stepping into the top job two months ago, Codey has shot out of the box like a sprinter, making a favorable impression on New Jersey voters. Despite his political and financial clout, Corzine no longer holds an overwhelming lead over Codey. While Corzine still holds a 10 point lead, a primary matchup could become a real horse race since nearly a quarter of the Democrats are undecided at this point," Richards added.
"Codey and Corzine would do equally well in turning back either of the Republican frontrunners, Bret Schundler and Doug Forrester, by a 2 - 1 margin. Among Republicans, Schundler and Forrester are in a dead heat, each grabbing about a third of the vote, while almost 30 percent haven't picked a favorite."
New Jersey voters give Corzine a 59 - 26 percent approval rating, his highest ever, and a 41 - 16 percent favorability rating, with 20 percent mixed and 22 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.
Codey gets a 35 - 5 percent favorability rating, with 18 percent mixed and 41 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.
Forrester's favorability is 14 - 10 percent, with 18 percent mixed and 56 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.
Schundler has an 18 - 13 percent favorability rating, with 16 percent mixed and 52 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.
From January 18 - 24, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,215 New Jersey registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points. The survey includes 433 registered Democrats, with a margin of error of +/- 4.7 percentage points, and 329 registered Republicans, with a margin of error of +/- 5.4 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Florida and nationally as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks or call (203) 582-5201.
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
App Dis DK/NA Jan 26, 2005 44 31 25 Nov 17, 2004 41 41 19 Sep 22, 2004 37 47 17 Aug 25, 2004 38 44 19 Aug 4, 2004 32 45 23 Jun 22, 2004 36 44 20 May 19, 2004 38 39 23 Mar 9, 2004 34 47 19 Nov 12, 2003 30 51 19 Sep 24, 2003 33 49 18 Jul 17, 2003 32 48 20 Jun 18, 2003 30 46 24 Apr 2, 2003 38 39 24
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jon Corzine is handling his job as United States Senator?
App Dis DK/NA Jan 26, 2005 59 26 15 Nov 17, 2004 58 23 20 Sep 22, 2004 54 25 21 Aug 25, 2004 54 24 21 Aug 4, 2004 46 28 26 Jun 22, 2004 46 29 25 May 19, 2004 49 27 23 Mar 9, 2004 47 28 25 Nov 12, 2003 44 30 26 Sep 24, 2003 48 30 22 Jul 17, 2003 48 27 26 Jun 18, 2003 44 30 26 Apr 2, 2003 46 29 25 Jan 29, 2003 47 23 30 Dec 11, 2002 47 22 30 Oct 7, 2002 52 26 22 Sep 12, 2002 47 19 33 Aug 8, 2002 49 19 31 Jun 19, 2002 46 18 36 Apr 24, 2002 48 20 32 Mar 6, 2002 51 20 29 Jan 30, 2002 51 15 33 Oct 18, 2001 51 19 29 Aug 7, 2001 50 21 29 Jul 5, 2001 48 22 30 May 14, 2001 49 20 31 Apr 11, 2001 46 21 33 Mar 8, 2001 43 21 36 Feb 8, 2001 35 18 47
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Frank Lautenberg is handling his job as United States Senator?
App Dis DK/NA Jan 26, 2005 53 28 20 Nov 17, 2004 52 28 20 Sep 22, 2004 49 32 19 Aug 25, 2004 50 28 22 Aug 4, 2004 48 31 22 Jun 22, 2004 47 31 22 May 19, 2004 48 33 19 Mar 9, 2004 44 33 23 Nov 12, 2003 45 33 23 Sep 24, 2003 48 34 18 Jul 17, 2003 43 33 24 Jun 18, 2003 41 34 25 Apr 2, 2003 44 32 24 Jan 29, 2003 42 27 32 Dec 6, 2000 52 20 27 Aug 24, 2000 51 21 28 Jul 27, 2000 55 22 23 Mar 29, 2000 53 22 25 Feb 23, 2000 52 23 25 Sep 23, 1999 55 25 20 Jul 22, 1999 55 25 20 Mar 31, 1999 54 25 21 Feb 12, 1999 52 29 19 Nov 12, 1998 52 26 22 Aug 10, 1998 50 24 26 Apr 23, 1998 51 25 23 Mar 4, 1998 52 23 25 Oct 22, 1997 51 26 23 Sep 16, 1997 53 26 22 Jul 29, 1997 50 25 26 Apr 10, 1997 52 25 23 Feb 8, 1996 43 32 26
TREND: If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jon Corzine the Democrat, and Bret Schundler the Republican, for whom would you vote?
SMONE WLDN'T JC BS ELSE VOTE DK/NA Jan 26, 2005 52 28 1 1 17 Nov 17, 2004 51 30 1 1 17 Aug 25, 2004 48 32 1 1 18
TREND: If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jon Corzine the Democrat, and Douglas Forrester the Republican, for whom would you vote?
SMONE WLDN'T JC DF ELSE VOTE DK/NA Jan 26, 2005 51 29 1 2 17 Nov 17, 2004 51 29 1 1 18 Aug 25, 2004 50 27 2 2 19
TREND: If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Richard Codey the Democrat, and Bret Schundler the Republican, for whom would you vote?
SMONE WLDN'T RC BS ELSE VOTE DK/NA Jan 26, 2005 54 26 1 2 18 Nov 17, 2004 40 34 1 1 24
TREND: If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Richard Codey the Democrat, and Douglas Forrester the Republican, for whom would you vote?
SMONE WLDN'T RC DF ELSE VOTE DK/NA Jan 26, 2005 53 25 1 1 21 Nov 17, 2004 39 32 1 1 26
TREND: (If registered Democrat)If the Democratic primary for governor were being held today and the candidates were Richard Codey and Jon Corzine for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED DEMOCRATS ............................... SMONE WLDN'T RC JC ELSE VOTE DK/NA Jan 26, 2005 33 43 - 1 22 Nov 17, 2004 20 60 1 1 18
1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Richard Codey is handling his job as acting Governor?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 59% 50% 69% 60% 62% 57% Disapprove 9 16 5 5 10 7 DK/NA 32 34 26 35 28 36 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 54% 58% 59% 59% 64% Disapprove 10 7 13 8 8 DK/NA 36 35 28 33 28
2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 44% 37% 53% 41% 42% 46% Disapprove 31 43 24 30 36 26 DK/NA 25 20 23 29 22 28 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 51% 43% 37% 49% 41% Disapprove 21 28 43 26 39 DK/NA 28 29 20 25 20
3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jon Corzine is handling his job as United States Senator?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 59% 41% 73% 58% 57% 60% Disapprove 26 44 12 27 32 20 DK/NA 15 15 15 15 11 20 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 61% 57% 55% 63% 61% Disapprove 19 27 33 22 26 DK/NA 20 16 12 16 14
4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Frank Lautenberg is handling his job as United States Senator?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 53% 32% 68% 52% 51% 54% Disapprove 28 50 13 27 34 23 DK/NA 20 18 19 21 16 23 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 54% 53% 51% 57% 50% Disapprove 20 25 36 24 35 DK/NA 26 22 13 19 15
6. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jon Corzine the Democrat, and Bret Schundler the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Corzine 52% 12% 81% 50% 51% 52% Schundler 28 71 4 24 32 24 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 3 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 - 4 2 1 DK/NA 17 15 14 21 14 21 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Corzine 56% 51% 49% 58% 46% Schundler 22 30 34 22 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 3 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 - - 3 DK/NA 18 17 14 19 20
7. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jon Corzine the Democrat, and Douglas Forrester the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Corzine 51% 12% 82% 48% 49% 53% Forrester 29 74 6 24 35 24 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 3 - 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 - 4 2 1 DK/NA 17 11 12 22 12 21 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Corzine 57% 51% 47% 56% 46% Forrester 21 28 38 25 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 - - 3 DK/NA 18 18 13 18 15
8. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Richard Codey the Democrat, and Bret Schundler the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Codey 54% 19% 82% 51% 54% 55% Schundler 26 63 5 21 29 23 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 - 4 2 1 DK/NA 18 16 13 22 14 21 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Codey 54% 54% 49% 58% 56% Schundler 22 25 35 21 26 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 2 DK/NA 21 18 15 19 16
9. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Richard Codey the Democrat, and Douglas Forrester the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Codey 53% 17% 83% 48% 51% 54% Forrester 25 66 2 21 29 21 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - - 3 2 1 DK/NA 21 16 15 26 17 24 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Codey 59% 51% 49% 53% 53% Forrester 17 26 30 25 25 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 1 - 2 DK/NA 22 20 19 22 20
10. (If registered Democrat)If the Democratic primary for governor were being held today and the candidates were Richard Codey and Jon Corzine for whom would you vote?
Reg Dem Codey 33% Corzine 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 DK/NA 22
11. (If registered Republican)If the Republican primary for governor were being held today would you vote for Douglas Forrester, or Bret Schundler, or one of the other announced Republican candidates? IF OTHER: Who might that be?
Reg Rep Forrester 32% Schundler 32 CALIGUIRE(VOL) - DI GAETANO(VOL) 1 LONEGAN(VOL) - MURPHY(VOL) 2 SCHROEDER(VOL) - SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 DK/NA 29
12. Is your opinion of Douglas Forrester favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 14% 34% 3% 12% 17% 12% Unfavorable 10 4 15 8 11 8 Mixed 18 22 14 21 18 19 Hvn't hrd enough 56 40 65 59 53 60 REFUSED 1 - 3 - 1 2
13. Is your opinion of Bret Schundler favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 18% 35% 7% 18% 22% 15% Unfavorable 13 6 19 12 13 12 Mixed 16 16 14 20 15 18 Hvn't hrd enough 52 44 58 50 49 55 REFUSED 1 - 2 - 1 1
14. Is your opinion of Jon Corzine favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 41% 18% 59% 38% 41% 41% Unfavorable 16 36 4 16 21 12 Mixed 20 24 18 21 21 20 Hvn't hrd enough 22 21 18 25 17 26 REFUSED 1 1 1 - 1 1
15. Is your opinion of Richard Codey favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 35% 23% 46% 34% 37% 33% Unfavorable 5 11 2 3 7 4 Mixed 18 21 15 16 16 19 Hvn't hrd enough 41 44 35 45 39 43 REFUSED 1 1 2 1 2 1
17. Would you say Richard Codey is doing a better job as acting governor than you expected, a worse job, or about what you expected?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Better than expected 27% 28% 29% 28% 28% 26% Worse than expected 2 4 1 2 2 2 About as expected 55 52 56 55 56 54 DK/NA 16 16 14 15 14 17
18. Would you like to see Richard Codey run for governor this year, or not?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 57% 46% 64% 56% 56% 57% No 22 35 17 19 24 19 DK/NA 22 19 19 26 19 24