New Jersey (NJ) Poll * August 10, 2005 * Corzine Has 10-Point Likely Vo - Quinnipiac University

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August 10, 2005 - Corzine Has 10-Point Likely Voter Lead In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Candidates Tied On Property Tax, Single Biggest Issue

Democratic U. S. Sen. Jon Corzine leads Republican Douglas Forrester 50 - 40 percent among likely voters in the race for Governor of New Jersey, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Republican likely voters back Forrester 85 - 10 percent, as Democrats back Corzine 92 - 4 percent, and independent voters split 42 - 43 percent.
Among likely voters backing Corzine, 78 percent say their mind is made up, while 79 percent of likely voters for Forrester say their mind is made up.
Corzine led 47 - 37 percent among registered voters in a June 15 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. There is no significant difference in the gap between the results from registered voters and likely voters in the most recent poll.
In an open-ended question, where voters can give any answer, 36 percent of registered voters list taxes, including 23 percent who list property taxes, as the most important issue in deciding how they will vote for governor. No other issue rises to double digits as a voter concern, but honesty/corruption is most important for 6 percent.
"While Sen. Corzine retains a comfortable lead in the race for Governor, he and Douglas Forrester are virtually deadlocked when it comes to which candidate the voters think can best handle the key issues of property taxes and corruption. The key right now is women voters who give Corzine the edge by about 20 points," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"This race is clearly polarizing New Jersey voters early on. Nearly 80 percent of voters say their mind is made up, leaving the two contenders a small pool of voters to target with their multi-million dollar ad campaigns," Richards added. Among likely voters who list the property tax as the most important issue in this campaign, Corzine and Forrester split 47 - 47 percent.
Registered voters say 34 - 32 percent, with 34 percent undecided, that Forrester would do a better job reducing property taxes.
When asked specifically about government corruption, 56 percent of New Jersey voters say it's a "very serious" problem, with 31 percent who say "somewhat serious." Voters split 32 - 32 percent on which candidate would do a better job ending corruption. By a 25 - 13 percent margin, voters have a favorable opinion of Forrester, with 22 percent mixed and 38 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.
Corzine gets a 32 - 20 percent favorability rating, with 24 percent mixed and 23 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.
Looking at Corzine, voters say:
60 - 18 percent that he has strong leadership qualities; 45 - 31 percent that he cares about their needs and problems; 45 - 25 percent that he is honest and trustworthy; 63 - 19 percent that he has the right experience to be Governor.
Looking at Forrester, voters say:
46 - 18 percent that he has strong leadership qualities; 42 - 26 percent that he cares about their needs and problems; 45 - 18 percent that he is honest and trustworthy; 48 - 21 percent that he has the right experience to be Governor.
From August 3 - 8 Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,504 New Jersey registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points. The survey included 932 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Florida and nationally as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks or call (203) 582-5201.
2. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jon Corzine the Democrat and Doug Forrester the Republican for whom would you vote? (If undecided q2)Well as of today, do you lean more towards Corzine or Forrester? Includes Leaners.
LIKELY VOTERS WITH LEANERS................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Corzine 50% 10% 92% 42% 46% 54% Forrester 40 85 4 43 46 34 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 9 5 4 13 7 12 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Corzine 77% 53% 40% 47% 36% Forrester 15 39 50 39 54 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - DK/NA 8 7 10 14 9
2. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jon Corzine the Democrat and Doug Forrester the Republican for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED VOTERS.......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Corzine 45% 8% 81% 38% 40% 49% Forrester 33 79 4 31 37 29 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 2 2 3 1 DK/NA 20 11 12 27 20 20 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Corzine 66% 48% 37% 40% 35% Forrester 12 31 45 35 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 2 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 2 1 2 1 DK/NA 18 18 15 23 24
TREND: If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jon Corzine the Democrat, and Doug Forrester the Republican, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED VOTERS..................................... Aug 10 Jun 15 Apr 28 Mar 16 Jan 26 Nov 17 Aug 25 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2004 2004 Corzine 45 47 46 50 51 51 50 Forrester 33 37 36 33 29 29 27 SMONE ELSE 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 DK/NA 20 11 14 14 17 18 19
3. (If candidate choice q2)Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................. Cand choice Tot JC DF Rep Dem Ind Made up 78% 78% 79% 80% 82% 72% Might change 21 21 20 19 17 27 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1
4. What is the most important issue to you in deciding how to vote for governor this year?
REGISTERED VOTERS Tot Taxes Total 36% Taxes general 12 Property tax 23 Income Tax 1 Pol. Corruption/Honesty 6% Political corruption 3 Honesty Integrity 3 Budget Total 4% Budget general 1 Budget deficits 1 Government too big/Gov spending 1 Budget priorities 1 Education Total 4% Education general 3 Funding education 1 Economy Total 3% Economy general 2 Unemployment/jobs 1 Healthcare Total 3% Healthcare/Costs/ Insurance/HMO's 2 Prescription costs 1 Lack of ethics/Morality 2 Abortion 1 Campaigns general 1 Crime/Violence general 1 Environment/Pollution 1 Senior issues 1 Social security 1 Security/Safety 1 War (Iraq) 1 Welfare 1 Other 9 DK/NA 18
5. Is your opinion of Doug Forrester favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 25% 55% 6% 24% 30% 20% Unfavorable 13 3 23 12 14 13 Mixed 22 19 24 23 21 22 Hvn't hrd enough 38 22 46 40 33 44 REFUSED 2 1 1 2 2 1
TREND: Is your opinion of Doug Forrester favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? (* = Is your opinion of businessman ..)
Aug 10 Jun 15 Apr 28 Mar 16 Jan 26 Sep 12 Aug 8 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2002* 2002* Favorable 25 20 19 19 14 12 11 Unfavorable 13 14 10 11 10 5 6 Mixed 22 24 20 16 18 11 8 Hvn't Heard Enough 38 41 50 53 56 71 72 REFUSED 2 1 1 1 1 1 1
6. Is your opinion of Jon Corzine favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 32% 13% 49% 29% 32% 31% Unfavorable 20 42 5 20 25 16 Mixed 24 25 22 27 22 25 Hvn't hrd enough 23 19 23 22 19 26 REFUSED 2 1 1 2 2 2
TREND: Is your opinion of Jon Corzine favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Aug 10 Jun 15 Apr 28 Mar 16 Jan 26 Dec 6 Oct 4 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2000 2000 Favorable 32 33 34 39 41 25 22 Unfavorable 20 21 21 21 16 25 21 Mixed 24 25 24 21 20 24 27 Hvn't Heard Enough 23 21 20 20 22 24 30 REFUSED 2 - 1 - 1 2 1
7. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New Jersey today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Very satisfied 4% 4% 4% 5% 4% 4% Smwht satisfied 41 31 49 42 40 43 Smwht dissatisfied 30 38 27 27 29 30 Very dissatisfied 23 27 18 25 25 21 DK/NA 2 1 2 1 2 1
TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New Jersey today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
Aug 10 Jun 15 Apr 28 Mar 17 Jan 27 Nov 17 Sep 22 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2004 2004 Very satisfied 4 3 3 3 6 4 6 Smwht satisfied 41 38 39 39 47 48 41 Smwht dissatisfied 30 33 34 31 30 30 32 Very dissatisfied 23 25 23 27 16 16 21 DK/NA 2 1 1 1 1 1 -
8. Would you say that Jon Corzine has strong leadership qualities or not?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 60% 48% 72% 61% 63% 57% No 18 34 6 19 20 16 DK/NA 22 18 23 20 17 26
9. Would you say that Jon Corzine cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 45% 27% 64% 41% 45% 45% No 31 53 14 33 34 27 DK/NA 24 20 23 25 20 28
10. Would you say that Jon Corzine is honest and trustworthy or not?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 45% 29% 60% 43% 48% 42% No 25 41 12 26 27 23 DK/NA 30 30 28 31 25 35
11. Do you think Jon Corzine has the right kind of experience to be Governor of New Jersey or not?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 63% 49% 75% 62% 65% 61% No 19 37 6 21 22 17 DK/NA 18 13 19 17 13 22
12. Would you say that Doug Forrester has strong leadership qualities or not?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 46% 73% 28% 45% 49% 42% No 18 6 26 17 19 16 DK/NA 37 20 45 38 31 42
13. Would you say that Doug Forrester cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 42% 70% 24% 41% 46% 38% No 26 12 38 25 27 25 DK/NA 32 18 38 34 28 36
14. Would you say that Doug Forrester is honest and trustworthy or not?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 45% 74% 32% 39% 50% 41% No 18 6 25 21 18 18 DK/NA 37 20 43 40 32 41
15. Do you think Doug Forrester has the right kind of experience to be Governor of New Jersey or not?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 48% 73% 29% 52% 51% 46% No 21 9 34 18 23 19 DK/NA 31 18 37 30 26 35
18. Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate for Governor, Jon Corzine or Doug Forrester do you think would do a better job reducing property taxes?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Corzine 32% 12% 55% 26% 31% 33% Forrester 34 65 12 36 39 28 DK/NA 34 23 34 38 30 38
TREND: Which candidate for Governor, -- Doug Forrester or Jon Corzine do you think would do a better job reducing property taxes?
Aug 10 Jun 15 2005 2005 Forrester 34 37 Corzine 32 35 DK/NA 34 28
19. How much of a problem, if at all, is government corruption in New Jersey today? Is it a very serious problem, a somewhat serious problem, a not too serious problem, or not a problem at all?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Very serious problem 56% 61% 47% 62% 61% 52% Smwht serious 31 28 38 28 27 36 Not too serious 8 7 10 6 7 8 Not a problem at all 1 1 1 1 2 1 DK/NA 3 2 4 3 4 3
20. Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate for Governor, Jon Corzine or Doug Forrester do you think would do a better job ending corruption in government?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Corzine 32% 9% 57% 25% 33% 32% Forrester 32 68 9 32 36 29 DK/NA 35 23 34 43 31 40
21. In general, if a wealthy candidate relies on his or her own money to fund their political campaign, does that make you more likely to vote for that candidate, less likely to vote for that candidate, or doesn't it make a difference?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom More likely 13% 8% 14% 15% 13% 13% Less likely 12 19 9 9 12 11 No difference 74 72 75 73 74 73 DK/NA 2 1 2 3 2 2
22. If wealthy candidates like Jon Corzine and Doug Forrester spend their own money to fund their political campaigns, do you think that they will be more influenced by special interests, less influenced by special interests, or doesn't it make a difference?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom More influenced 17% 15% 16% 17% 16% 18% Less influenced 30 31 28 30 35 25 No difference 49 48 52 49 46 52 DK/NA 4 5 4 4 4 5
23. If wealthy candidates like Doug Forrester and Jon Corzine spend their own money to fund their political campaigns, do you think that they will be more in touch with average people, less in touch with average people, or doesn't it make a difference?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom More in touch 17% 13% 21% 18% 15% 20% Less in touch 26 29 22 28 24 27 No difference 53 54 52 51 58 49 DK/NA 4 4 4 4 4 4
24. While both Jon Corzine and Doug Forrester are expected to spend millions of dollars of their own money in the race for governor, it is expected that Corzine will outspend Forrester. Does this make you more likely to vote for Corzine, less likely to vote for Corzine, or doesn't it make a difference?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom More likely 4% 2% 7% 3% 3% 5% Less likely 12 26 3 10 12 11 Doesn't make diff 82 70 87 84 83 80 DK/NA 3 1 3 3 2 3