New Jersey (NJ) Poll * June 15, 2006 * Kean Gains No Ground On Menend - Quinnipiac University

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June 15, 2006 - Kean Gains No Ground On Menendez In NJ Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Independent Voters Remain Volatile

While half of New Jersey independent voters say they still might change their mind, Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez has a 43 - 36 percent lead over State Sen. Tom Kean, Jr., his Republican challenger, with 17 percent undecided, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
This compares to a 40 - 34 percent lead for Sen. Menendez, with 20 percent undecided, in an April 27 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.
In this latest survey, Republicans back Kean 75 - 12 percent, while Democrats back Menendez 74 - 11 percent. Among independent voters, 37 percent back the Democrat and 35 percent back Kean. In this pivotal independent voter group, 23 percent are undecided and 52 percent of those who currently back a candidate say they might change their mind.
"As shown in the primary, State Sen. Kean is having problems with conservatives in his own party who think he is too liberal. This and the Democratic registration edge in New Jersey continue to give Sen. Menendez a lead in his bid for a full six-year term," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"But at least half the voters say they do not know enough about the candidates to have an opinion - and half of the critical independent voters say they could change their mind before Election Day. With millions to be spent, this race has barely begun."
Kean is "too liberal," 8 percent of New Jersey voters, including 13 percent of Republicans, say, while 18 percent of all voters say he is "too conservative," and 33 percent say he is "about right," with 41 percent undecided.
Menendez is "too liberal," 22 percent of voters say, with 7 percent who say he's "too conservative," and 34 percent who say he's "about right," with 37 percent undecided.
Looking at the ethics issue, New Jersey voters say:
42 - 14 percent that Kean is honest and trustworthy, compared to 38 - 21 percent for Menendez; 34 - 22 percent that Kean is part of the solution, rather than part of the problem, compared to 32 - 28 percent for Menendez; Disagree 41 - 23 percent with Kean's claim that Menendez is an unethical party boss.
By a 49 - 24 percent margin, voters agree with Menendez' claim that Kean is a "George Bush Republican" who would support Bush Administration policies. President Bush's Approval
New Jersey voters disapprove 69 - 28 percent of the job President George W. Bush is doing, compared to 69 - 26 percent April 27. Voters disapprove 68 - 28 percent of President Bush's handling of the war in Iraq and say 62 - 33 percent that going to war in Iraq was the wrong thing to do.
The U.S. should remove all troops from Iraq, 33 percent of New Jersey voters say, while 28 percent want to decrease the level of U.S. troops; 23 percent want to keep troop levels the same and 12 percent want to increase troop levels.
"At this point, Menendez' charge that Kean is a Bush Republican who would vote the Administration line seems to be having some sway among independent voters. To a lesser degree, independents are somewhat concerned about Kean's charge about Menendez being a party boss with ethical problems," Richards said.
From June 7 - 13, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,099 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Florida and nationally as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks or call (203) 582-5201.
3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Frank Lautenberg is handling his job as United States Senator?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 44% 32% 54% 47% 46% 43% Disapprove 34 52 20 36 39 30 DK/NA 21 16 26 18 15 27 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 53% 45% 38% 41% 44% Disapprove 28 35 38 35 35 DK/NA 19 20 24 24 21
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Frank Lautenberg is handling his job as United States Senator? * - also hit 55% on 9/23/1999 & 7/22/1999
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Jun 15 Apr 27 Mar 20 Jan 25 Jun 15 Jul 27 Jun 18 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 2000 * 2003 Approve 44 43 47 44 49 55 41 Disapprove 34 32 30 34 34 22 34 DK/NA 21 25 23 22 18 23 25
4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert Menendez is handling his job as United States Senator?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 37% 23% 48% 37% 38% 36% Disapprove 29 43 19 29 33 25 DK/NA 34 35 34 33 29 39 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 54% 34% 26% 35% 35% Disapprove 23 30 31 28 30 DK/NA 23 36 42 36 35
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert Menendez is handling his job as United States Senator?
Jun 15 Apr 27 Mar 20 2006 2006 2006 Approve 37 34 39 Disapprove 29 25 19 DK/NA 34 41 42
5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 28% 64% 7% 26% 30% 26% Disapprove 69 32 93 70 67 70 DK/NA 3 4 1 5 2 4 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 18% 27% 34% 26% 37% Disapprove 78 69 62 73 59 DK/NA 4 3 3 1 4
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Jun 15 Apr 27 Mar 20 Jan 25 Jun 15 Oct 18 Apr 27 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 2001 2006 Approve 28 26 31 36 40 90 26 Disapprove 69 69 65 59 55 7 69 DK/NA 3 5 4 5 5 3 5
6. Is your opinion of United States Senator Robert Menendez favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 20% 13% 31% 18% 23% 18% Unfavorable 13 23 6 12 15 11 Mixed 16 17 12 17 17 15 Hvn't hrd enough 50 47 50 52 45 55 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 - 1 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Favorable 37% 20% 11% 18% 16% Unfavorable 9 15 15 12 12 Mixed 16 16 18 14 16 Hvn't hrd enough 38 48 57 55 56 REFUSED - 1 - 1 -
TREND: Is your opinion of United States Senator Robert Menendez favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? (* opinion of Congressman Robert Menendez)
Jun 15 Apr 27 Mar 20 Jan 25 Dec 15 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 * Favorable 20 20 21 16 22 Unfavorable 13 12 10 7 10 Mixed 16 13 10 12 12 Hvn't hrd enough 50 55 57 64 56 REFUSED 1 1 2 1 1
7. Is your opinion of State Senator Tom Kean Jr. favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 20% 37% 13% 18% 20% 21% Unfavorable 10 8 14 8 12 8 Mixed 13 14 16 10 12 14 Hvn't hrd enough 56 40 57 64 55 57 REFUSED 1 - - 1 1 - Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Favorable 18% 21% 22% 15% 24% Unfavorable 9 13 7 6 12 Mixed 14 13 12 12 15 Hvn't hrd enough 58 53 59 66 49 REFUSED 2 - - 1 -
TREND: Is your opinion of State Senator Tom Kean Jr. favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Jun 15 Apr 27 Mar 20 Jan 25 Dec 15 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 Favorable 20 16 18 17 20 Unfavorable 10 7 6 5 8 Mixed 13 14 11 15 9 Hvn't hrd enough 56 63 64 64 61 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 2
8. If the 2006 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Robert Menendez the Democrat and Tom Kean Jr. the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Menendez 43% 12% 74% 37% 43% 42% Kean 36 75 11 35 35 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 - 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 3 4 1 DK/NA 17 10 14 23 15 19 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Menendez 59% 40% 32% 50% 36% Kean 25 35 40 34 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 4 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 4 1 2 DK/NA 13 21 20 15 14
TREND: If the 2006 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Robert Menendez the Democrat and Tom Kean Jr. the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Jun 15 Apr 27 Mar 20 Jan 25 Dec 15 Nov 22 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 Menendez 43 40 40 38 44 41 Kean Jr. 36 34 36 36 38 39 SMONE ELSE 2 2 3 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE 2 3 2 2 2 1 DK/NA 17 20 19 22 16 18
9. (If candidate choice q8) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
CHOSE CANDIDATE Q8......................... CAND OF CHOICE Tot RM TK Rep Dem Ind Made up 60% 64% 55 67% 68% 46% Might change 40 36 44 33 32 52 DK/NA 1 - 1 - - 1
10. Do you think Tom Kean Jr. is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Too liberal 8% 13% 6% 7% 10% 6% Too conservative 18 5 29 17 19 17 About right 33 54 19 33 32 33 DK/NA 41 29 47 43 39 43 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Too liberal 6% 9% 5% 7% 11% Too conservative 25 17 12 22 17 About right 24 32 34 30 41 DK/NA 45 42 49 41 31
11. Do you think Robert Menendez is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Too liberal 22% 46% 8% 20% 27% 17% Too conservative 7 4 6 10 8 5 About right 34 14 51 32 35 33 DK/NA 37 36 36 38 29 45 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Too liberal 13% 26% 24% 19% 24% Too conservative 10 4 3 13 7 About right 52 33 24 30 30 DK/NA 25 37 48 38 39
12. Would you say that Tom Kean Jr. is honest and trustworthy or not?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 42% 65% 34% 36% 43% 41% No 14 5 20 15 16 13 DK/NA 44 30 46 49 41 46 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Yes 40% 44% 45% 34% 46% No 10 15 7 20 17 DK/NA 50 41 48 45 38
13. Would you say that Robert Menendez is honest and trustworthy or not?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 38% 32% 51% 32% 43% 34% No 21 26 14 24 21 21 DK/NA 41 43 35 44 37 46 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Yes 53% 36% 29% 35% 38% No 16 23 20 24 19 DK/NA 31 41 52 41 43
14. When thinking about the problem of ethics in government, do you think Tom Kean Jr. is part of the problem or part of the solution?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Part of problem 22% 14% 30% 21% 25% 20% Part of solution 34 53 22 33 34 34 DK/NA 44 32 48 46 41 47 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Part of problem 26% 21% 13% 24% 25% Part of solution 31 32 42 28 38 DK/NA 42 47 45 48 36
15. When thinking about the problem of ethics in government, do you think Robert Menendez is part of the problem or part of the solution?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Part of problem 28% 46% 16% 26% 32% 24% Part of solution 32 16 47 30 34 30 DK/NA 40 38 36 44 34 46 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Part of problem 22% 27% 38% 27% 27% Part of solution 49 33 17 27 30 DK/NA 30 39 44 45 43
16. Robert Menendez has said that Tom Kean Jr. is a George Bush Republican who would support the Bush administration policies. Do you agree or disagree?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Agree 49% 55% 55% 42% 51% 47% Disagree 24 26 19 27 26 23 DK/NA 27 19 26 31 23 30 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Agree 54% 48% 44% 43% 56% Disagree 19 25 23 28 26 DK/NA 27 28 33 29 19
16a. (If 'agree' q16) Does that make you more likely to vote for Tom Kean Jr., less likely to vote for Tom Kean Jr., or doesn't it make a difference?
AGREE Q16.......... Tot Men Wom More likely 19% 19% 20% Less likely 50 51 50 Doesn't make a diff 29 29 29 DK/NA 1 1 2
16b. (If 'disagree' q16) Does that make you more likely to vote for Tom Kean Jr., less likely to vote for Tom Kean Jr., or doesn't it make a difference?
DISAGREE Q16....... Tot Men Wom More likely 29% 33% 26% Less likely 10 10 9 Doesn't make a diff 53 52 55 DK/NA 7 5 10
17. Tom Kean Jr. recently said that he thinks Robert Menendez is a political party boss who is unethical. Do you agree or disagree?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Agree 23% 37% 11% 24% 27% 19% Disagree 41 22 57 41 44 39 DK/NA 36 41 32 35 29 42 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Agree 21% 23% 28% 21% 22% Disagree 49 42 30 41 44 DK/NA 30 35 42 39 34
17a. (If 'agree' q17) Does that make you more likely to vote for Robert Menendez, less likely to vote for Robert Menendez, or doesn't it make a difference?
AGREE Q17.......... Tot Men Wom More likely 7% 10% 2% Less likely 61 61 62 Doesn't make a diff 31 28 34 DK/NA 1 1 2
17b. (If 'disagree' q17) Does that make you more likely to vote for Robert Menendez, less likely to vote for Robert Menendez, or doesn't it make a difference?
DISAGREE Q17....... Tot Men Wom More likely 29% 27% 30% Less likely 3 3 2 Doesn't make a diff 65 66 64 DK/NA 3 4 3
32. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 28% 64% 6% 27% 32% 26% Disapprove 68 33 92 69 66 71 DK/NA 3 3 2 4 3 4
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?
Jun 15 Apr 27 Mar 20 Jan 25 2006 2006 2006 2006 Approve 28 25 27 34 Disapprove 68 71 69 62 DK/NA 3 5 4 4
33. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Right thing 33% 70% 12% 28% 38% 28% Wrong thing 62 27 83 66 57 67 DK/NA 5 3 5 6 5 5
TREND: Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
Jun 15 Apr 27 Mar 20 Jan 25 Oct 19 Oct 6 Sep 21 2006 2006 2006 2006 2004 2004 2004 Right thing 33 31 33 38 44 40 40 Wrong thing 62 63 62 58 51 52 55 DK/NA 5 6 6 4 5 7 5
34. From what you have seen or heard about the situation in Iraq, what should the United States do? Should the U.S. -- A) increase the number of U.S. troops in Iraq, B) keep the same number of U.S. troops in Iraq as there are now, C) decrease the number of U.S. troops in Iraq, or D) remove all its troops from Iraq?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom A)Increase troops 12% 17% 7% 13% 16% 8% B)Keep same amount 23 36 12 24 25 21 C)Decrease troops 28 24 27 33 28 29 D)Remove all troops 33 17 50 27 28 37 DK/NA 4 6 4 3 4 5
TREND: From what you have seen or heard about the situation in Iraq, what should the United States do? A) Should the U.S. increase the number of U.S. troops in Iraq, B) keep the same number of U.S. troops in Iraq as there are now, C) decrease the number of U.S. troops in Iraq, or D) remove all its troops from Iraq?
Jun 15 Apr 27 2006 2006 A) Increase troops 12 10 B) Keep same amount 23 20 C) Decrease troops 28 23 D) Remove all troops 33 39 DK/NA 4 8