New Jersey (NJ) Poll * September 20, 2006 * Kean Inches Ahead Of Menendez - Quinnipiac University

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September 20, 2006 - Kean Inches Ahead Of Menendez In Senate Race, Quinnipiac University New Jersey Poll Finds; Ethics Issue Takes Small Toll On Democrat

New Jersey State Sen. Tom Kean, Jr., the Republican challenger, leads Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez 48 - 45 percent among New Jersey likely voters, including leaners, in the U.S. Senate race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Another 6 percent remain undecided.
Among registered voters, Sen. Menendez leads 41 - 38 percent each, compared to a slim 40 - 38 Kean lead in a July 17 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe- ack) University.
In this latest survey, Republican likely voters back Kean 92 - 5 percent, while Democrats back Menendez 85 - 9 percent and independent voters split, with 46 percent for Kean and 44 percent for Menendez.
By a 40 - 13 percent margin, New Jersey voters say Kean is "honest and trustworthy," with 47 percent undecided. By a 33 - 24 percent margin, voters say Menendez is "honest and trustworthy," with 43 percent undecided.
"This is an extremely close race and it is clear that independent voters hold the key to deciding who will be elected Senator in New Jersey. In recent history, these independents have swung to the Democratic candidate, often providing the margin of victory. Right now, they are divided evenly between Sen. Kean and Sen. Menendez, and just as importantly, 37 percent say they could change their mind before Election Day," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
New Jersey voters give Menendez a 34 - 31 percent approval rating, with 35 percent undecided. He gets a split 17 - 18 percent favorability rating, with 17 percent mixed and 47 percent who don't know enough to form an opinion.
Kean gets a 19 - 10 percent favorability rating, with 19 percent mixed and 50 percent who don't know enough to form an opinion.
Menendez is part of the ethics problem, 31 percent of voters say, while 28 percent say he is part of the solution, with 42 percent undecided.
Kean is part of the solution to the problem of ethics in government, 36 percent of voters say, while only 18 percent say he is part of the problem, with 46 percent undecided.
Of the 42 percent of New Jersey voters who have heard or read anything about a federal investigation of Menendez, 41 percent say the investigation is "politically motivated" while 42 percent say it is a "serious issue." Of this group, 46 percent say they are less likely to vote for Menendez because of the investigation, while 46 percent say it won't affect their vote.
By a 48 - 25 percent margin, voters agree with Menendez' claim that Kean is a "George Bush Republican" who would support administration policies.
New Jersey voters disapprove 64 - 33 percent of the job President George W. Bush is doing.
"The recent ethical questions raised about Sen. Menendez have hurt him slightly, but the jury is still out. More than four in 10 voters say they don't know if Menendez - or Kean for that matter - can be described as honest and trustworthy. Independents are the key on the ethics issue, too. Independent voters who say they have heard about the investigation into Menendez are divided right down the middle on whether the matter is serious or politically motivated," Richards said.
From September 13 - 18, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,233 New Jersey registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points. The survey includes 688 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and nationally as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks or call (203) 582-5201.
1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jon Corzine is handling his job as Governor?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 45% 26% 60% 46% 46% 43% Disapprove 36 55 21 38 38 35 DK/NA 19 19 19 16 15 22 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 51% 46% 42% 42% 44% Disapprove 30 33 43 40 38 DK/NA 19 21 15 18 19
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jon Corzine is handling his job as Governor?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Sep 20 Jul 14 Jun 16 Apr 26 Mar 16 Sep 20 Apr 26 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 Approve 45 44 39 35 43 45 35 Disapprove 36 43 41 42 21 36 42 DK/NA 19 13 20 23 36 19 23
2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 27% 17% 36% 24% 30% 24% Disapprove 55 68 42 59 58 53 DK/NA 18 15 22 17 12 23 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 35% 27% 25% 24% 24% Disapprove 46 59 57 55 56 DK/NA 20 15 18 21 20
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Sep 20 Jul 14 Jun 16 Apr 26 Mar 16 Jan 26 Jul 14 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 2006 Approve 27 20 27 26 35 44 20 Disapprove 55 71 53 55 41 31 71 DK/NA 18 10 19 20 24 25 10
3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert Menendez is handling his job as United States Senator?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 34% 20% 47% 33% 38% 31% Disapprove 31 46 20 30 34 28 DK/NA 35 34 33 37 28 41 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 44% 34% 30% 34% 33% Disapprove 29 30 37 28 31 DK/NA 27 37 34 38 36
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert Menendez is handling his job as United States Senator?
Sep 20 Jul 17 Jun 15 Apr 27 Mar 20 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 Approve 34 31 37 34 39 Disapprove 31 30 29 25 19 DK/NA 35 39 34 41 42
4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 33% 70% 9% 28% 36% 30% Disapprove 64 27 89 66 60 66 DK/NA 4 4 2 6 4 3 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 22% 29% 42% 29% 43% Disapprove 71 66 56 69 55 DK/NA 8 5 2 2 2
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Sep 20 Jul 17 Jun 15 Apr 27 Mar 20 Oct 18 Apr 27 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2001 2006 Approve 33 34 28 26 31 90 26 Disapprove 64 61 69 69 65 7 69 DK/NA 4 5 3 5 4 3 5
5. Is your opinion of United States Senator Robert Menendez favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Likely Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Voters Favorable 17% 9% 25% 15% 20% 14% 24% Unfavorable 18 30 9 16 22 14 26 Mixed 17 16 18 17 17 17 20 Hvn't hrd enough 47 43 47 49 39 54 29 REFUSED 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Favorable 22% 19% 16% 13% 14% Unfavorable 15 17 23 13 21 Mixed 16 15 17 19 19 Hvn't hrd enough 45 47 42 55 45 REFUSED 3 3 2 1 -
TREND: Is your opinion of United States Senator Robert Menendez favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? (* opinion of Congressman Robert Menendez)
Sep 20 Jul 17 Jun 15 Apr 27 Mar 20 Jan 25 Dec 15 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 * Favorable 17 18 20 20 21 16 22 Unfavorable 18 15 13 12 10 7 10 Mixed 17 18 16 13 10 12 12 Hvn't hrd enough 47 47 50 55 57 64 56 REFUSED 2 1 1 1 2 1 1
6. Is your opinion of State Senator Tom Kean Jr. favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Likely Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Voters Favorable 19% 30% 13% 16% 23% 15% 26% Unfavorable 10 6 14 11 14 7 14 Mixed 19 18 18 20 20 17 22 Hvn't hrd enough 50 43 54 51 41 59 37 REFUSED 2 3 1 1 2 2 1 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Favorable 16% 21% 20% 16% 18% Unfavorable 13 10 9 11 9 Mixed 17 16 23 15 25 Hvn't hrd enough 50 50 46 57 49 REFUSED 3 2 3 2 -
TREND: Is your opinion of State Senator Tom Kean Jr. favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Sep 20 Jul 17 Jun 15 Apr 27 Mar 20 Jan 25 Dec 15 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 Favorable 19 18 20 16 18 17 20 Unfavorable 10 11 10 7 6 5 8 Mixed 19 16 13 14 11 15 9 Hvn't hrd enough 50 54 56 63 64 64 61 REFUSED 2 1 1 - 1 1 2
7. If the 2006 election for senator were being held today, and the candidates were Robert Menendez the Democrat and Tom Kean Jr. the Republican for whom would you vote?(If undecided q7) As of today, do you lean more toward Menendez or Kean? This table includes Leaners.
LIKELY VOTERS............................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Menendez 45% 5% 85% 44% 41% 52% Kean 48 92 9 46 53 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 6 3 6 8 5 6 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Menendez 58% 44% 40% 55% 34% Kean 39 48 55 37 60 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 4 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - DK/NA 3 8 5 3 6
7. If the 2006 election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Robert Menendez the Democrat and Tom Kean Jr. the Republican for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Menendez 41% 7% 74% 36% 37% 44% Kean Jr. 38 75 10 36 44 33 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 - 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 2 2 1 2 DK/NA 18 14 14 24 16 19 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Menendez 51% 41% 37% 42% 33% Kean Jr. 29 35 49 37 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 - 3 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 1 1 3 DK/NA 17 20 13 18 20
TREND: If the 2006 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Robert Menendez the Democrat and Tom Kean Jr. the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Sep 20 Jul 17 Jun 15 Apr 27 Mar 20 Jan 25 Dec 15 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 Menendez 41 38 43 40 40 38 44 Kean Jr. 38 40 36 34 36 36 38 SMONE ELSE 2 2 2 2 3 1 - WLDN'T VOTE 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 DK/NA 18 18 17 20 19 22 16
7b. (If candidate choice on q7) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS CHOOSING CANDIDATE Q7........ CAND CHOICE.... Tot RM TK Rep Dem Ind Made up 70% 72% 67% 72% 74% 62% Might change 29 26 32 28 24 37 DK/NA 1 2 1 1 1 2
8. (If Menendez q7) What is the main reason you support Menendez -- A) Because of his experience, B) Because of his personal qualities, or C) Because of his stand on the issues?
MENENDEZ SUPPORTERS Q7.................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom A) Experience 15% 21% 14% 14% 24% 9% B) Personal qualities 4 16 5 2 2 6 C) Stand on issues 52 33 50 61 44 58 OTHER(VOL) 20 26 22 15 27 16 DK/NA 8 5 8 8 4 11
9. (If Kean q7) What is the main reason you support Kean Jr. -- A) Because of his personal qualities, B) Because he is the son of former Governor Tom Kean, or C) Because of his stand on the issues?
KEAN SUPPORTERS Q7......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom A) Personal qualities 9% 6% 11% 14% 9% 9% B) Son of former Gov Kean 18 13 21 22 15 21 C) Stand on issues 52 60 43 48 56 49 OTHER(VOL) 15 15 21 12 17 13 DK/NA 6 6 4 5 4 7
10. Would you say that Tom Kean Jr. is honest and trustworthy or not?
Likely Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Voters Yes 40% 56% 29% 39% 46% 34% 50% No 13 7 16 14 13 12 13 DK/NA 47 38 55 47 41 53 37 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Yes 35% 40% 42% 39% 42% No 12 12 11 13 16 DK/NA 53 47 48 48 42
TREND: Would you say that Tom Kean Jr. is honest and trustworthy or not?
Sep 20 Jun 15 2006 2006 Yes 40 42 No 13 14 DK/NA 47 44
11. Would you say that Robert Menendez is honest and trustworthy or not?
Likely Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Voters Yes 33% 23% 40% 35% 34% 31% 39% No 24 34 15 24 29 20 29 DK/NA 43 44 45 41 37 48 32 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Yes 35% 33% 31% 38% 27% No 21 23 28 15 34 DK/NA 43 44 41 47 40
TREND: Would you say that Robert Menendez is honest and trustworthy or not?
Sep 20 Jun 15 2006 2006 Yes 33 38 No 24 21 DK/NA 43 41
12. When thinking about the problem of ethics in government, do you think Tom Kean Jr. is part of the problem or part of the solution?
Likely Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Voters Part of problem 18% 6% 27% 20% 20% 17% 20% Part of solution 36 55 24 32 41 31 44 DK/NA 46 38 49 48 39 52 36 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Part of problem 18% 18% 16% 21% 20% Part of solution 41 36 36 33 33 DK/NA 41 46 48 46 47
TREND: When thinking about the problem of ethics in government, do you think Tom Kean Jr. is part of the problem or part of the solution?
Sep 20 Jun 15 2006 2006 Part of problem 18 22 Part of solution 36 34 DK/NA 46 44
13. When thinking about the problem of ethics in government, do you think Robert Menendez is part of the problem or part of the solution?
Likely Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Voters Part of problem 31% 43% 19% 32% 38% 24% 41% Part of solution 28 14 40 27 26 29 30 DK/NA 42 43 41 41 36 47 29 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Part of problem 27% 32% 35% 25% 32% Part of solution 41 28 18 29 24 DK/NA 32 40 47 46 43
TREND: When thinking about the problem of ethics in government, do you think Robert Menendez is part of the problem or part of the solution?
Sep 20 Jun 15 2006 2006 Part of problem 31 28 Part of solution 28 32 DK/NA 42 40
14. Have you heard or read anything recently about a federal investigation of Senator Robert Menendez?
Likely Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Voters Yes 42% 45% 38% 45% 47% 38% 54% No 57 54 62 53 52 61 45 DK/NA 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Yes 47% 43% 47% 31% 43% No 52 55 53 69 55 DK/NA 1 2 - 1 2
15. (If heard or read) Does this investigation of Senator Robert Menendez make you more likely to vote for him, less likely to vote for him, or doesn't it make a difference?
IF HEARD OR READ ABOUT INVESTIGATION........ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom More likely 1% 1% 2% 1% 2% 1% Less likely 46 74 29 39 46 45 Doesn't make a difference 46 21 60 52 46 45 DK/NA 7 4 10 8 6 9 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore More likely 3% 2% 1% - - Less likely 37 50 50 40 46 Doesn't make a difference 55 41 41 49 49 DK/NA 6 8 8 11 5
16. (If heard or read) Do you think this investigation is a serious issue or is it politically motivated?
IF HEARD OR READ ABOUT INVESTIGATION........ Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Serious issue 42% 57% 24% 44% 47% 35% Politically motivated 41 19 64 38 35 47 DK/NA 18 24 12 17 18 18 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Serious issue 38% 40% 46% 29% 51% Politically motivated 43 48 37 41 29 DK/NA 20 12 16 30 19
17. Robert Menendez has said that Tom Kean Jr. is a George Bush Republican who would support the Bush administration policies. Do you agree or disagree?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Agree 48% 49% 54% 44% 52% 45% Disagree 25 27 22 26 27 23 DK/NA 27 23 25 31 20 32 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Agree 42% 48% 42% 55% 54% Disagree 35 24 28 21 20 DK/NA 23 28 30 24 27
TREND: Robert Menendez has said that Tom Kean Jr. is a George Bush Republican who would support the Bush administration policies. Do you agree or disagree?
Sep 20 Jul 17 Jun 15 2006 2006 2006 Agree 48 46 49 Disagree 25 26 24 DK/NA 27 28 27
18. Does that make you more likely to vote for Tom Kean Jr., less likely to vote for Tom Kean Jr., or doesn't it make a difference?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom More likely 21% 43% 8% 18% 22% 21% Less likely 30 8 50 30 30 31 Doesn't make a difference 41 41 35 45 43 39 DK/NA 8 8 7 7 6 9 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore More likely 19% 19% 23% 20% 26% Less likely 29 30 24 38 29 Doesn't make a difference 44 43 44 36 39 DK/NA 8 8 9 7 5
19. Do you think Tom Kean Jr. has the right kind of experience to be a United States Senator or not?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 41% 58% 29% 40% 46% 36% No 24 12 34 23 26 22 DK/NA 35 30 37 36 27 42 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Yes 36% 37% 42% 45% 47% No 31 27 20 18 22 DK/NA 33 36 37 36 31
20. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 30% 63% 8% 27% 36% 25% Disapprove 66 32 89 70 62 70 DK/NA 4 4 3 3 2 5 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Approve 20% 29% 38% 27% 38% Disapprove 75 67 60 71 59 DK/NA 5 4 3 2 3
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?
Sep 20 Jun 15 Apr 27 Mar 20 Jan 25 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 Approve 30 28 25 27 34 Disapprove 66 68 71 69 62 DK/NA 4 3 5 4 4
21. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Right thing 36% 72% 11% 31% 39% 33% Wrong thing 59 23 84 63 56 61 DK/NA 5 4 5 5 5 6 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Right thing 26% 36% 41% 32% 44% Wrong thing 69 60 55 61 50 DK/NA 6 5 4 6 6
TREND: Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
Sep 20 Jun 15 Apr 27 Mar 20 Jan 25 Oct 19 Oct 6 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2004 2004 Right thing 36 33 31 33 38 44 40 Wrong thing 59 62 63 62 58 51 52 DK/NA 5 5 6 6 4 5 7
22. From what you have seen or heard about the situation in Iraq, what should the United States do? A) Should the U.S. increase the number of U.S. troops in Iraq, B) keep the same number of U.S. troops in Iraq as there are now, C) decrease the number of U.S. troops in Iraq, or D) remove all its troops from Iraq?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom A) Increase troops 17% 28% 11% 14% 24% 12% B) Keep same amount 19 32 9 18 18 19 C) Decrease troops 25 22 28 26 25 25 D) Remove all troops 30 11 45 29 23 36 DK/NA 9 8 7 14 10 9 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore A) Increase troops 14% 16% 19% 16% 22% B) Keep same amount 10 17 25 18 23 C) Decrease troops 27 27 22 23 24 D) Remove all troops 36 31 28 33 22 DK/NA 13 9 6 9 10
TREND: From what you have seen or heard about the situation in Iraq, what should the United States do? A) Should the U.S. increase the number of U.S. troops in Iraq, B) keep the same number of U.S. troops in Iraq as there are now, C) decrease the number of U.S. troops in Iraq, or D) remove all its troops from Iraq?
Sep 20 Jun 15 Apr 27 2006 2006 2006 A) Increase troops 17 12 10 B) Keep same amount 19 23 20 C) Decrease troops 25 28 23 D) Remove all troops 30 33 39 DK/NA 9 4 8
23. Is the United States winning or losing the war in Iraq?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Winning 29% 56% 11% 27% 35% 24% Losing 50 23 68 53 45 56 DK/NA 20 21 21 20 20 20 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Winning 18% 30% 38% 26% 32% Losing 51 52 45 58 44 DK/NA 32 18 17 15 23
24. Is the United States winning or losing the war on worldwide terrorism?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Winning 44% 71% 27% 42% 54% 36% Losing 37 12 52 42 31 43 DK/NA 18 17 21 16 16 21 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Winning 40% 43% 51% 38% 49% Losing 38 39 31 48 29 DK/NA 22 18 18 14 22