New Jersey (NJ) Poll * October 12, 2006 * Menendez Up 49 - 45 Percent In - Quinnipiac University

Home> Institutes and Centers> Quinnipiac University Polling Institute> New Jersey (NJ)> Release Detail

October 12, 2006 - Menendez Up 49 - 45 Percent In Senate Race, Quinnipiac University New Jersey Poll Finds; Kean Seen As More Ethical

Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez has pulled ahead in the New Jersey Senate race, with a 49 - 45 percent likely voter lead over Republican State Sen. Tom Kean, Jr., according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Six percent remain undecided and 18 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind before Election Day.
This compares to a 48 - 45 percent Kean lead in a September 20 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.
In this latest survey, Republican likely voters back Kean 89 - 8 percent, while Democrats back Menendez 86 - 11 percent. Independent voters split with 45 percent for Menendez and 44 percent for Kean. Women back the Democrat 51 - 42 percent, while men split with 48 percent for Kean and 46 percent for Menendez. Men backed Kean 53 - 41 percent in the September 20 survey.
By a 51 - 18 percent margin, New Jersey voters say Kean is "honest and trustworthy," with 30 percent undecided, compared to 50 - 13 percent September 20.
Voters split 38 - 39 percent on whether Menendez is "honest and trustworthy," with 24 percent undecided, compared to 39 - 29 percent September 20.
"Sen. Menendez seems to be beating back the ethical questions facing his campaign and in fact has improved his standing, particularly among male voters," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"The important thing at this point is that the barrage of negative ads is not making things any worse for the Democratic incumbent. At the same time, the Menendez ads attacking Sen. Tom Kean Jr., may be neutralizing the ethics issue. But even though the lead has shifted in this race, it looks like the two will be neck and neck down the stretch to Election Day," Richards added.
New Jersey voters give Menendez a split 32 - 32 percent favorability rating, with 22 percent mixed and 13 percent who don't know enough to form an opinion.
Kean gets a 34 - 18 percent favorability rating, with 25 percent mixed and 22 percent who don't know enough to form an opinion.
Among New Jersey likely voters, 76 percent have read or heard something about ethical issues concerning Menendez. Of that group, 49 percent say they are less likely to vote for the incumbent because of the ethics question, while 44 percent say it won't influence their vote.
The ethical questions raised about Menendez are "serious," 57 percent of voters say, while 33 percent say they are part of a "smear campaign."
If Kean is elected, he will vote to support President George W. Bush "too often," 39 percent of voters say, while 9 percent say "not often enough," and 42 percent say "about right."
New Jersey voters disapprove 57 - 38 percent of the job President Bush is doing and disapprove 63 - 32 percent of Bush's handling of the war in Iraq.
The U.S. is losing the war in Iraq, voters say 55 - 27 percent, but winning the war on worldwide terrorism, voters say 43 - 39 percent.
From October 4 - 10, Quinnipiac University surveyed 761 New Jersey likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and nationally as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks or call (203) 582-5201.
1. If the 2006 election for senator were being held today and the candidates were Robert Menendez the Democrat and Tom Kean Jr. the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Menendez or Kean? This table includes Leaners.
LIKELY VOTERS............................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Menendez 49% 8% 86% 45% 46% 51% Kean 45 89 11 44 48 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 6 3 2 10 6 6 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Menendez 67% 57% 32% 40% 41% Kean 23 35 66 57 52 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - DK/NA 9 7 2 3 7
TREND: If the 2006 election for United States senator were being held today and the candidates were Robert Menendez the Democrat and Tom Kean Jr. the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Menendez or Kean? This table includes Leaners.
LIKELY VOTERS Oct 12 Sep 20 2006 2006 Menendez 49 45 Kean Jr. 45 48 SMONE ELSE - 1 WLDN'T VOTE - - DK/NA 6 6
1a. (If candidate choice q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY CHOOSING CAND Q1................... CAND CHOICE Q1 Tot RM TK Rep Dem Ind Made up 81% 80% 83% 93% 80% 73% Might change 18 20 17 7 20 26 DK/NA - - - - - 1
TREND: (If candidate choice) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS Oct 12 Sep 20 2006 2006 Made up 81 70 Might change 18 29 DK/NA - 1
2. (If Menendez supporter) Is your vote more for Menendez or more against Kean Jr.?
MENENDEZ SUPPORTERS................ LIKELY VOTERS ..................... Tot Dem Ind Men Wom For Menendez 65% 70% 55% 67% 62% Against Kean Jr. 28 22 37 25 30 DK/NA 8 8 8 8 8
3. (If Kean supporter) Is your vote more for Kean Jr. or more against Menendez?
KEAN SUPPORTERS.................... LIKELY VOTERS ..................... Tot Rep Ind Men Wom For Kean Jr. 50% 59% 39% 45% 57% Against Menendez 43 35 56 51 33 DK/NA 7 7 6 5 9
5. (If Menendez supporter) What is the main reason you support Menendez? A) Because of his experience, B) Because of his personal qualities, or C) Because of his stand on the issues?
MENENDEZ SUPPORTERS................ LIKELY VOTERS ..................... Tot Dem Ind Men Wom A) Experience 19% 18% 23% 18% 19% B) Personal qualities 3 5 - 3 4 C) Stand on issues 56 57 49 52 61 OTHER(VOL) 17 16 22 23 11 DK/NA 4 4 5 4 4
TREND: (If Menendez voter) What is the main reason you support Menendez? A) Because of his experience, B) Because of his personal qualities, or C) Because of his stand on the issues?
LIKELY VOTERS...... Menendez Supporters Oct 12 Sep 20 2006 2006 A) Experience 19 15 B) Personal qualities 3 4 C) Stand on issues 56 52 OTHER(VOL) 17 20 DK/NA 4 8
6. (If Kean Jr. supporter) What is the main reason you support Kean Jr.? A) Because of his personal qualities, B) Because he is the son of former Governor Tom Kean, or C) Because of his stand on the issues?
KEAN SUPPORTERS.................... LIKELY VOTERS...................... Tot Rep Ind Men Wom A) Personal qualities 10 8 12 8 13 B) Son of Gov Tom Kean 10 7 11 8 12 C) Stand on the issues 55 63 48 58 53 OTHER(VOL) 20 18 27 22 18 DK/NA 4 3 3 5 4
TREND:(If Kean voter) What is the main reason you support Kean Jr.? A) Because of his personal qualities, B) Because he is the son of former Governor Tom Kean, or C) Because of his stand on the issues?
LIKELY VOTERS.. Kean Supporters Oct 12 Sep 20 2006 2006 A) Personal qualities 10 9 B) Son of Gov Tom Kean 10 18 C) Stand on issues 55 52 OTHER(VOL) 20 15 DK/NA 4 6
7. Is your opinion of Robert Menendez favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 32% 8% 56% 26% 32% 32% Unfavorable 32 62 8 31 38 25 Mixed 22 14 23 29 19 25 Hvn't hrd enough 13 16 12 12 10 17 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 2 1 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Favorable 37% 38% 24% 30% 25% Unfavorable 23 27 41 33 39 Mixed 28 24 17 20 18 Hvn't hrd enough 12 9 16 17 18 REFUSED 1 2 2 1 0
TREND: Is your opinion of Robert Menendez favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS Oct 12 Sep 20 2006 2006 Favorable 32 24 Unfavorable 32 26 Mixed 22 20 Hvn't hrd enough 13 29 REFUSED 1 2
8. Is your opinion of Tom Kean Jr. favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 34% 63% 15% 31% 37% 30% Unfavorable 18 6 30 16 16 21 Mixed 25 21 22 31 25 25 Hvn't hrd enough 22 10 32 20 21 22 REFUSED 2 1 1 2 1 2 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Favorable 21% 26% 41% 46% 41% Unfavorable 28 18 8 19 19 Mixed 26 25 29 19 24 Hvn't hrd enough 25 27 22 13 16 REFUSED - 3 - 2 -
TREND: Is your opinion of Tom Kean Jr. favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS Oct 12 Sep 20 2006 2006 Favorable 34 26 Unfavorable 18 14 Mixed 25 22 Hvn't hrd enough 22 37 REFUSED 2 1
9. Would you say that Tom Kean Jr. is honest and trustworthy or not?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 51% 75% 38% 46% 53% 49% No 18 10 22 22 19 18 DK/NA 30 15 40 32 28 33 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Yes 40% 44% 67% 57% 56% No 23 21 14 18 16 DK/NA 37 36 19 26 28
TREND: Would you say that Tom Kean Jr. is honest and trustworthy or not?
LIKELY VOTERS Oct 12 Sep 20 2006 2006 Yes 51 50 No 18 13 DK/NA 30 37
10. Would you say that Robert Menendez is honest and trustworthy or not?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 38% 19% 61% 29% 35% 41% No 39 56 18 45 46 31 DK/NA 24 25 21 26 19 28 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Yes 42% 41% 34% 38% 31% No 34 38 43 37 44 DK/NA 24 22 24 26 25
TREND: Would you say that Robert Menendez is honest and trustworthy or not?
LIKELY VOTERS Oct 12 Sep 20 2006 2006 Yes 38 39 No 39 29 DK/NA 24 32
11. Have you read or heard anything about ethical issues raised concerning Senator Robert Menendez?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 76% 78% 72% 78% 83% 68% No 24 21 28 22 17 31 DK/NA - 1 - - - 1 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Yes 70% 79% 79% 70% 77% No 29 21 20 30 23 DK/NA 1 - 1 - -
12. (If heard or read q11) Do the ethical issues raised concerning Senator Robert Menendez make you more likely to vote for him, less likely to vote for him, or don't they make a difference?
LIKELY VOTERS "HEARD" Q11 ................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom More likely 4% 1% 8% 3% 4% 4% Less likely 49 72 23 57 52 46 No difference 44 25 67 36 41 47 DK/NA 3 2 2 4 3 4 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore More likely 8% 1% 4% 6% 5% Less likely 40 48 57 47 53 No difference 49 48 36 41 40 DK/NA 3 3 3 5 2
13. (If heard or read q11) Which statement comes closer to what you believe - A) The ethical issues raised about Senator Robert Menendez are serious, or B) The ethical issues raised about Senator Robert Menendezare a smear campaign
LIKELY VOTERS "HEARD" Q11 ................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom A) Serious 57% 83% 32% 59% 61% 51% B) Smear campaign 33 11 56 31 31 37 DK/NA 10 6 12 10 8 12 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore A) Serious 49% 51% 63% 62% 63% B) Smear campaign 42 37 29 26 29 DK/NA 8 11 8 12 9
14. If Tom Kean Jr. is elected to the United States Senate, do you think he will vote to support President Bush too often, not often enough, or about right?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Too often 39% 10% 60% 39% 36% 41% Not enough 9 13 9 7 9 9 About right 42 68 23 40 46 37 DK/NA 11 9 8 14 9 12 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Too often 47% 45% 27% 37% 31% Not enough 7 7 12 7 13 About right 36 37 49 45 46 DK/NA 9 11 12 11 9
15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 38% 77% 11% 35% 40% 36% Disapprove 57 16 87 60 55 60 DK/NA 4 7 2 6 5 4
16. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 32% 73% 6% 27% 37% 27% Disapprove 63 22 93 64 59 66 DK/NA 5 6 1 8 4 6
17. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Right thing 39% 72% 13% 39% 41% 36% Wrong thing 56 18 84 57 54 58 DK/NA 5 10 3 4 5 6
18. From what you have seen or heard about the situation in Iraq, what should the United States do? A) Should the U.S. increase the number of U.S. troops in Iraq, B) keep the same number of U.S. troops in Iraq as there are now, C) decrease the number of U.S. troops in Iraq, or D) remove all its troops from Iraq?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom A) Increase troops 24% 37% 11% 27% 30% 17% B) Keep same amount 18 38 6 16 20 16 C) Decrease troops 21 10 30 20 19 23 D) Remove all troops 29 6 46 27 24 34 DK/NA 9 9 8 11 8 10
19. Is the United States winning or losing the war in Iraq?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Winning 27% 52% 7% 26% 28% 25% Losing 55 18 81 58 51 59 DK/NA 19 30 12 16 20 17
20. Is the United States winning or losing the war on worldwide terrorism?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Winning 43% 71% 23% 40% 46% 39% Losing 39 14 59 38 36 43 DK/NA 18 15 18 22 18 18