New Jersey (NJ) Poll * October 31, 2006 * Menendez Up 49 - 44 Percent In - Quinnipiac University

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October 31, 2006 - Menendez Up 49 - 44 Percent In Senate Race, Quinnipiac University New Jersey Poll Finds; Voters Say 5 - 1 That The Campaign Is Dirty

In the New Jersey Senate race, Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez has a 49 - 44 percent likely voter lead over Republican State Sen. Tom Kean, Jr., according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Six percent remain undecided and 12 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind before Election Day.
This compares to a 49 - 45 percent Sen. Menendez lead in an October 12 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.
In this latest survey, Republican likely voters back Kean 88 - 8 percent, while Democrats back Menendez 87 - 9 percent.
Independent voters back Menendez 47 - 43 percent, compared to a 45 - 44 percent split, tipped to Menendez, October 12.
Women back the Democrat 57 - 34 percent, up from 51 - 42 percent, while men back Kean 54 - 40 percent, compared to 48 - 46 percent for Kean.
"Hold onto your hats! This is New Jersey, folks, which means that the election is close, volatile and subject to yo-yo like swings as the TV ads howl in during the final week," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"The sub-groups to look at? Political independents and suburbanites usually hold the key and Sen. Menendez leads, although not overwhelmingly, among both groups.
"This last week will be critical since New Jersey is usually late making up its mind"
"Women, who tend to favor Democrats, prefer Menendez. Men, who tend to favor Republicans, prefer Kean. But, if you're reading political tea leaves, the Menendez gender edge is higher," Carroll added. Dirty Campaign
This year's Senate campaign is "dirty," New Jersey voters say 74 - 14 percent.
Among Republicans who think the campaign is dirty, 40 percent say Menendez is more responsible; 9 percent blame Kean and 44 percent blame both candidates.
Among Democrats, 60 percent blame Kean; 4 percent blame Menendez and 30 percent blame both candidates.
Independent voters split, with 24 percent who blame Kean; 19 percent who blame Menendez and 52 percent who blame both candidates.
"Even by New Jersey's demanding standards, this has been a particularly nasty campaign, voters say. Most Democrats blame Kean, but Republicans seem more balanced in pointing fingers," Carroll said.
"And the independent voters point their fingers both ways."
From October 23 - 29, Quinnipiac University surveyed 887 New Jersey likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and nationally as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks or call (203) 582-5201.
1. If the 2006 election for senator were being held today and the candidates were Robert Menendez the Democrat and Tom Kean Jr. the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Menendez or Kean? This table includes Leaners.
LIKELY VOTERS............................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Menendez 49% 8% 87% 47% 40% 57% Kean 44 88 9 43 54 34 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 0 2 3 0 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 6 3 4 8 4 9 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Menendez 50% 51% 49% 50% 41% Kean 38 41 50 44 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 0 - 1 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - DK/NA 9 7 2 5 8
TREND: If the 2006 election for senator were being held today and the candidates were Robert Menendez the Democrat and Tom Kean Jr. the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Menendez or Kean? This table includes Leaners.
LIKELY VOTERS......... Oct 31 Oct 12 Sep 20 2006 2006 2006 Menendez 49 49 45 Kean 44 45 48 SMONE ELSE 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE - - - DK/NA 6 6 6
1a. (If candidate choice q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY CHOOSING CAND Q1 CAND CHOICE Q1 Tot RM TK Made up 87% 87% 88% Might change 12 12 12 DK/NA 1 1 -
TREND: (If candidate choice) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS......... Oct 31 Oct 12 Sep 20 2006 2006 2006 Made up 87 81 70 Might change 12 18 29 DK/NA 1 - 1
2. Would you be more likely to describe this year's Senate campaign as dirty or clean?
LIKELY VOTERS............................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Dirty 74% 72% 70% 83% 76% 72% Clean 14 17 14 9 14 13 DK/NA 12 11 15 8 10 15 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Dirty 70% 71% 78% 71% 82% Clean 10 15 11 19 10 DK/NA 19 14 11 10 9
2a. (If "dirty" q2) Who do you think is more responsible for the dirty campaign - Robert Menendez or Tom Kean Jr.?
IF "DIRTY" Q2 LIKELY VOTERS............................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Menendez 20% 40% 4% 19% 22% 18% Kean 32 9 60 24 28 36 BOTH(VOL) 41 44 30 52 43 40 DK/NA 7 7 6 5 7 7 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Menendez 18% 22% 21% 17% 19% Kean 38 35 25 24 36 BOTH(VOL) 35 39 47 47 41 DK/NA 9 4 7 12 4