New York City (NYC) Poll * July 25, 2007 * Mayor's Presidential Musings A - Quinnipiac University

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July 25, 2007 - Mayor's Presidential Musings Are Good For City, New Yorkers Tell Quinnipiac University Poll; But Most Probably Won't Vote For Him

Word format Speculation about New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg running for President is good for the City, voters say 53 - 26 percent in a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Republican voters say 64 - 19 percent that these presidential rumblings are good for New York, while Democrats agree 49 - 30 percent and independent voters agree 59 - 20 percent.
New York City voters approve 73 -19 percent of the job Mayor Bloomberg is doing, just short of his record 75 - 16 percent approval in a January 16 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.
While a total of 56 percent of voters say it is "very likely" or "somewhat likely" Bloomberg will run for President, only 34 percent say they "definitely" or "probably" would vote for him, with 57 percent who say they "probably" or "definitely" won't vote for him.
Bloomberg's businessman's approach to government would help him in a national campaign, New York City voters say 55 - 15 percent, with 25 percent who say it won't make a difference. By a smaller 28 - 23 percent margin, voters say Bloomberg's independent lifestyle will help him in a national presidential effort, with 41 percent who say it won't matter.
"New Yorkers like all that talk about Mayor Mike for President, but talk is cheap and they're not ready to promote him out of City Hall," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"While they give their Democrat/turned Republican/turned independent Mayor consistently high approval ratings, New York City voters are deep blue when it comes to electing a President."
"Bloomberg's 'businessman's approach' to government will play in Peoria, New Yorkers think. They're less sure, but still positive, that the rest of the nation will like his 'independent life style' - stuff like those weekend jet flights to Bermuda - that they're now familiar with. Mostly, they think, it won't matter," Carroll added.
Only 24 percent of voters say Public Advocate Betsy Gotbaum would be a good Mayor if Bloomberg leaves office early. Another 40 percent say she would not be a good Mayor, with 36 percent undecided. Voters approve 40 - 17 percent of the job Gotbaum is doing. Approval ratings for other New York City leaders are:
43 - 12 percent for Comptroller William Thompson; 45 - 15 percent for Council Speaker Christine Quinn; 64 - 26 percent for Police Commissioner Ray Kelly, including 49 - 42 percent among black voters.
"Skepticism about Public Advocate Betsy Gotbaum's probable performance as Mayor if Bloomberg should leave has risen a bit since Quinnipiac University asked in May," Carroll said.
A total of 64 percent of New York City voters are "very satisfied" or "somewhat satisfied" with the way things are going in the City, while 35 percent are "somewhat dissatisfied" or "very dissatisfied."
"It's a standard poll question - how are things going? - but it's an indication of how people feel about their elected officials, and City Hall ought to be pleased with these numbers," Carroll said.
From July 18 - 23, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,194 New York City registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x271.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Michael Bloomberg is handling his job as Mayor?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Approve 73% 74% 72% 73% 79% 65% 68% Disapprove 19 22 20 18 15 22 26 DK/NA 8 4 8 9 5 12 6 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Approve 69% 69% 78% 74% 77% 73% 73% Disapprove 24 20 17 17 21 20 19 DK/NA 7 10 5 9 3 7 8
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Michael Bloomberg is handling his job as Mayor? * - also 75% on 11/17/2005
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Jul 25 May 23 Mar 14 Jan 16 Nov 14 Jan 16 Jul 2 2007 2007 2007 2007 2006 2007* 2003 Approve 73 74 73 75 72 75 31 Disapprove 19 19 19 16 20 16 60 DK/NA 8 7 8 9 8 9 8
2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ray Kelly is handling his job as Police Commissioner?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Approve 64% 80% 59% 64% 76% 49% 57% Disapprove 26 17 29 25 14 42 32 DK/NA 11 3 12 11 10 8 11 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Approve 57% 61% 62% 69% 78% 66% 61% Disapprove 35 26 27 20 19 25 26 DK/NA 8 13 11 11 4 8 12
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ray Kelly is handling his job as Police Commissioner? * - also 70% on 2/3/06
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Jul 25 May 23 Mar 15 Jan 16 Jul 12 Mar 9 Jan 16 2007 2007 2007 2007 2006 2006 * 2007 Approve 64 58 56 52 66 70 52 Disapprove 26 27 30 34 20 17 34 DK/NA 11 14 14 14 14 13 14
4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Betsy Gotbaum is handling her job as Public Advocate?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Approve 40% 36% 44% 40% 39% 48% 39% Disapprove 17 21 15 18 17 15 15 DK/NA 43 43 41 42 44 37 45 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Approve 49% 41% 38% 34% 44% 39% 41% Disapprove 15 15 15 21 23 20 14 DK/NA 36 44 47 45 34 40 45
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Betsy Gotbaum is handling her job as Public Advocate?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Jul 25 May 23 Mar 14 Nov 14 Nov 25 Jul 2 Feb 26 2007 2007 2007 2006 2003 2003 2003 Approve 40 42 41 38 41 43 34 Disapprove 17 15 19 18 19 22 17 DK/NA 43 44 40 44 40 35 49
5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Christine Quinn is handling her job as City Council Speaker?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Approve 45% 41% 48% 43% 47% 44% 42% Disapprove 15 22 12 18 13 19 15 DK/NA 40 36 40 39 40 37 43 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Approve 45% 43% 44% 46% 51% 47% 42% Disapprove 18 16 13 15 12 17 13 DK/NA 37 41 43 39 37 36 44
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Christine Quinn is handling her job as City Council Speaker?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Jul 25 May 23 Mar 14 Nov 14 Mar 14 Jul 25 2007 2007 2007 2006 2007 2007 Approve 45 47 51 47 51 45 Disapprove 15 13 12 12 12 15 DK/NA 40 40 37 41 37 40
6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way William Thompson is handling his job as City Comptroller?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Approve 43% 44% 43% 44% 39% 56% 40% Disapprove 12 16 12 10 8 17 13 DK/NA 45 41 45 46 53 27 47 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Approve 43% 47% 35% 44% 46% 47% 39% Disapprove 14 13 10 12 13 13 11 DK/NA 44 41 54 44 41 41 49
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way William Thompson is handling his job as City Comptroller?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Jul 25 May 23 Mar 14 Nov 14 Nov 25 May 23 Feb 26 2007 2007 2007 2006 2003 2007 2003 Approve 43 46 43 45 37 46 35 Disapprove 12 12 15 12 14 12 13 DK/NA 45 42 42 43 49 42 52
7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the city council is handling its job?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Approve 48% 46% 51% 47% 48% 47% 50% Disapprove 32 36 30 33 28 39 35 DK/NA 20 19 19 20 23 14 15 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Approve 44% 46% 51% 48% 53% 51% 46% Disapprove 34 34 28 32 34 34 31 DK/NA 22 19 21 20 13 15 23
8. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New York City today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Very satisfied 10% 15% 8% 14% 15% 4% 7% Smwht satisfied 54 56 57 50 59 47 56 Smwht dissatisfied 23 18 22 25 19 29 24 Very dissatisfied 12 11 12 12 6 20 13 DK/NA 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Very satisfied 7% 10% 16% 8% 7% 13% 8% Smwht satisfied 51 53 50 61 61 58 51 Smwht dissatisfied 25 19 25 23 21 17 27 Very dissatisfied 16 18 7 7 10 10 13 DK/NA - - 2 1 - 1 1
TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New York City today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
Jul 25 Jul 12 Apr 12 Mar 8 Feb 2 Nov 17 Sep 22 2007 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 Very satisfied 10 16 12 14 13 19 12 Smwht satisfied 54 51 56 54 59 56 51 Smwht dissatisfied 23 22 22 20 19 16 22 Very dissatisfied 12 10 9 12 7 8 13 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 2
10. There has been a lot of talk about the possibility that Mayor Bloomberg might run for President. How likely do you think it is that he will run for President? Very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not likely at all?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Very likely 16% 16% 16% 16% 13% 20% 12% Smwht likely 40 41 40 40 40 40 42 Not too likely 26 26 26 28 31 22 28 Not likely at all 15 12 16 13 13 16 14 DK/NA 3 4 2 3 3 2 3 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Very likely 14% 19% 14% 16% 13% 14% 18% Smwht likely 48 38 36 39 39 39 40 Not too likely 22 24 33 26 26 27 26 Not likely at all 13 17 14 16 18 18 13 DK/NA 3 3 3 2 4 2 4
TREND: There has been a lot of talk about the possibility that Mayor Bloomberg might run for President. How likely do you think it is that he will run for President? Very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not likely at all?
Jul 25 May 23 Nov 14 Jul 12 2007 2007 2006 2006 Very likely 16 11 10 11 Smwht likely 40 35 29 25 Not too likely 26 29 32 35 Not likely at all 15 21 26 27 DK/NA 3 3 4 2
11. If Mayor Bloomberg ran for President as an independent, how likely is it that you would vote for him? Would you definitely vote for him, probably vote for him, probably not vote for him, or definitely not vote for him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Definitely 12% 19% 9% 16% 12% 10% 10% Probably 22 21 19 28 23 21 23 Probably not 26 17 31 25 28 25 27 Definitely not 31 35 35 20 27 39 34 DK/NA 9 7 6 11 10 6 6 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Definitely 14% 9% 13% 11% 12% 12% 11% Probably 20 22 22 24 24 23 22 Probably not 23 28 26 27 25 27 26 Definitely not 33 31 30 31 30 30 32 DK/NA 9 10 9 7 9 8 9
TREND: If Mayor Bloomberg ran for President as an independent, how likely is it that you would vote for him? Would you definitely vote for him, probably vote for him, probably not vote for him, or definitely not vote for him?
Jul 25 Nov 14 2007 2006 Definitely 12 10 Probably 22 25 Probably not 26 25 Definitely not 31 31 DK/NA 9 8
12. Do you think Michael Bloomberg's businessman's approach to government would help him in a national presidential campaign, hurt him or have no effect.
Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Help 55% 60% 51% 59% 62% 45% 49% Hurt 15 14 16 13 14 18 13 No effect 25 25 26 25 20 33 29 DK/NA 5 1 7 4 4 4 8 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Help 51% 51% 59% 57% 57% 57% 52% Hurt 15 15 12 17 22 13 16 No effect 28 30 23 22 18 26 25 DK/NA 6 4 6 5 3 3 7
13. Do you think Michael Bloomberg's independent life style would help him in a presidential campaign, hurt him or have no effect.
Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Help 28% 29% 28% 30% 26% 27% 29% Hurt 23 26 23 20 27 22 19 No effect 41 40 40 44 40 42 45 DK/NA 8 6 9 5 7 8 7 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Help 30% 28% 28% 27% 19% 28% 28% Hurt 16 23 27 26 18 24 23 No effect 43 41 38 41 51 43 40 DK/NA 10 9 7 6 12 6 10
14. Do you think that the speculation about Michael Bloomberg possibly running for President in 2008 is good or bad for New York City?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Good for NYC 53% 64% 49% 59% 57% 49% 54% Bad for NYC 26 19 30 20 19 34 29 DK/NA 21 17 20 21 24 17 16 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Good for NYC 54% 50% 58% 49% 61% 60% 47% Bad for NYC 30 25 22 28 21 23 28 DK/NA 16 24 20 22 18 17 25
15. If Mayor Bloomberg leaves before his term expires, Public Advocate Betsy Gotbaum would become the Mayor. Do you think Betsy Gotbaum would make a good mayor or not?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Yes/Good Mayor 24% 16% 30% 22% 21% 26% 30% No/Not a good Mayor 40 54 35 41 42 40 34 DK/NA 36 30 34 37 37 34 37 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Yes/Good Mayor 30% 24% 27% 20% 18% 25% 24% No/Not a good mayor 37 39 34 47 50 46 36 DK/NA 33 38 38 33 31 29 41
TREND: If Mayor Bloomberg leaves before his term expires, Public Advocate Betsy Gotbaum would become the Mayor. Do you think Betsy Gotbaum would make a good mayor or not?
Jul 25 May 23 2007 2007 Yes/Good Mayor 24 30 No/Not a good Mayor 40 34 DK/NA 36 36
16. Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: Michael Bloomberg is in office to get things done and is doing that a lot better than anyone in Washington, D.C.?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Agree 63% 66% 61% 68% 71% 58% 56% Disagree 26 25 29 23 21 34 30 DK/NA 10 8 10 9 8 8 14 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Agree 60% 61% 66% 67% 64% 69% 59% Disagree 29 29 24 25 26 24 28 DK/NA 11 10 10 9 11 7 13