New York City (NYC) Poll * July 28, 2009 * Thompson Cuts Bloomberg's Lead - Quinnipiac University

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July 28, 2009 - Thompson Cuts Bloomberg's Lead In Half In Mayoral Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Green And 'Don't Know' Lead In Other Races

Word format New York City Comptroller William Thompson, the top Democratic challenger, trails Mayor Michael Bloomberg 47 - 37 percent among New York City voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This 10-point gap is less than half of Mayor Bloomberg's 54 - 32 percent lead June 16.
Thompson's biggest gains are among black voters, who back him 56 - 30 percent, compared to 43 - 42 percent for Bloomberg June 16. Democrats shift from 49 - 40 for Bloomberg to a 45 - 42 percent for Thompson today. Bloomberg's 70 - 14 percent Republican backing is virtually unchanged while independents shift from 59 - 26 percent for Bloomberg to 49 - 27 percent today, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.
In the June 16 survey, New York City voters were asked to choose between "Thompson the Democrat" and "Bloomberg the independent." In today's survey, Bloomberg is identified as "running as both a Republican and an independent."
By a 51 - 28 percent margin, Bloomberg tops Queens City Council member Tony Avella, compared to 57 - 27 percent June 16, before the label change. Thompson tops Avella in a Democratic primary 44 - 11 percent, with 39 percent undecided.
"It was starting to look as if they might hold an election and no one would come. But now there's a little life in the mayoral race as Comptroller Bill Thompson gains some ground on Mayor Michael Bloomberg," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "It could be Thompson's increased attacks on the Mayor; it could be that more voters, 61 percent, say Bloomberg's campaign spending is overkill, but Thompson is closer than Democrat Fernando Ferrer was at this point in 2005, when he lost by 19 points."
"Mayor Mike's approval is down a bit, but still better than most elected officials in states Quinnipiac University surveys," Carroll said. "And 59 percent of New York City voters are satisfied with the way things are going, not bad in a recession and a budget crisis."
New York City voters approve 63 - 29 percent of the job Bloomberg is doing, compared to 66 - 27 percent June 16. This is his lowest approval since his second term began in 2005.
New York City voters give the Mayor a 59 - 34 percent favorability. Thompson gets a 38 - 9 percent favorability, but 52 percent don't know enough about him to form an opinion. For Avella, 78 percent don't know enough about him to form an opinion.
Voters approve 53 - 10 percent, with 37 percent undecided, of the way Thompson is handling his job as Comptroller.
Comptroller, Public Advocate Races
With 55 percent, "undecided" is the winner in the Democratic primary for New York City Comptroller. Among the City Council members vying for the job, John Liu has 17 percent, with 10 percent for Melinda Katz, 8 percent for David Yassky and 5 percent for David Weprin.
Former Public Advocate Mark Green leads the Democratic primary pack for his old position with 37 percent, followed by 13 percent for Norman Siegal, 10 percent for City Council member Bill de Blasio and 7 percent for Council member Eric Gioia.
Green is the only candidate in the Comptroller or Public Advocate field with any name recognition, getting a 48 - 19 percent favorability.
For each of the other candidates, 63 to 85 percent of New York City voters say they don't know enough about them to form an opinion.
"Except for the only familiar name, Mark Green, the big winner is 'don't know' for Comptroller and Public Advocate," Carroll said. "Can Green get 40 percent and avoid a runoff in the Public Advocate race? In the Comptroller's race, it's anybody and everybody's guess."
From July 21 - 27, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,290 New York City registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. The survey includes 793 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2009 Democratic primary for Mayor were being held today and the candidates were Tony Avella and William Thompson, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED DEMS Avella 11% Thompson 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 DK/NA 39
TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the 2009 Democratic primary for Mayor were being held today and the candidates were Tony Avella and William Thompson, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED DEMS Jul 28 Jun 16 2009 2009 Avella 11 8 Thompson 44 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 5 DK/NA 39 46
2. (If registered Democrat) If the 2009 Democratic primary for Public Advocate were being held today and the candidates were Mark Green, Norman Siegal, Bill de Blasio, and Eric Gioia, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED DEMS Green 37% Siegal 13 de Blasio 10 Gioia 7 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 DK/NA 30
TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the 2009 Democratic primary for Public Advocate were being held today and the candidates were Mark Green, Norman Siegal, Bill de Blasio and Eric Gioia, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED DEMS Jul 28 Jun 17 2009 2009 Green 37 35 Siegal 13 14 de Blasio 10 10 Gioia 7 5 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 DK/NA 30 34
3. (If registered Democrat) Is your opinion of - Mark Green favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
REGISTERED DEMS Favorable 48% Unfavorable 19 Hvn't hrd enough 31 REFUSED 2
4. (If registered Democrat) Is your opinion of - Norman Siegal favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
REGISTERED DEMS Favorable 27% Unfavorable 9 Hvn't hrd enough 63 REFUSED 1
5. (If registered Democrat) Is your opinion of - Bill de Blasio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
REGISTERED DEMS Favorable 17% Unfavorable 6 Hvn't hrd enough 76 REFUSED 1
6. (If registered Democrat) Is your opinion of - Eric Gioia favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
REGISTERED DEMS Favorable 12% Unfavorable 3 Hvn't hrd enough 84 REFUSED 1
7. (If registered Democrat) If the 2009 Democratic primary for Comptroller were being held today and the candidates were Melinda Katz, David Weprin, John Liu, and David Yassky, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED DEMS Katz 10% Weprin 5 Liu 17 Yassky 8 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 DK/NA 55
TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the 2009 Democratic primary for Comptroller were being held today and the candidates were Melinda Katz, David Weprin, John Liu and David Yassky, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED DEMS Jul 28 Jun 17 2009 2009 Katz 10 13 Weprin 5 5 Liu 17 19 Yassky 8 10 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 DK/NA 55 50
8. (If registered Democrat) Is your opinion of - Melinda Katz favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
REGISTERED DEMS Favorable 14% Unfavorable 4 Hvn't hrd enough 81 REFUSED 1
9. (If registered Democrat) Is your opinion of - David Weprin favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
REGISTERED DEMS Favorable 10% Unfavorable 4 Hvn't hrd enough 85 REFUSED 1
10. (If registered Democrat) Is your opinion of - John Liu favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
REGISTERED DEMS Favorable 25% Unfavorable 4 Hvn't hrd enough 70 REFUSED 1
11. (If registered Democrat) Is your opinion of - David Yassky favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
REGISTERED DEMS Favorable 12% Unfavorable 5 Hvn't hrd enough 82 REFUSED 1
12. If the 2009 election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were William Thompson the Democrat and Michael Bloomberg running as both a Republican and an Independent, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Thompson 37% 14% 45% 27% 26% 56% 34% Bloomberg 47 70 42 49 58 30 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 3 - 1 1 - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 1 3 2 3 2 DK/NA 14 10 11 18 12 12 18 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Thompson 44% 42% 32% 32% 28% 35% 38% Bloomberg 39 42 55 47 54 48 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 1 2 3 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 2 1 3 5 2 2 DK/NA 16 14 11 15 10 14 14
TREND: If the 2009 election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were William Thompson the Democrat and Michael Bloomberg running as both a Republican and an Independent, for whom would you vote?(*Michael Bloomberg the Independent)
Jul 28 Jun 16 Mar 24 Feb 24 Jan 27 Nov 25 2009 2009* 2009* 2009* 2009* 2008* Thompson 37 32 35 33 34 34 Bloomberg 47 54 49 50 50 49 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 2 1 2 DK/NA 14 12 14 13 13 14
13. If the 2009 election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Tony Avella the Democrat and Michael Bloomberg running as both a Republican and an Independent, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Avella 28% 17% 34% 19% 20% 38% 32% Bloomberg 51 63 49 56 61 38 49 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 3 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 2 4 2 6 4 DK/NA 17 15 15 18 15 17 14 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Avella 34% 29% 21% 30% 21% 27% 29% Bloomberg 43 49 57 50 61 54 49 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 2 5 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 4 3 3 4 2 4 DK/NA 20 17 17 15 10 15 18
TREND: If the 2009 election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Tony Avella the Democrat and Michael Bloomberg running as both a Republican and an Independent, for whom would you vote?(*Michael Bloomberg the Independent)
Jul 28 Jun 16 2009 2009* Avella 28 27 Bloomberg 51 57 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 DK/NA 17 12
14. Is your opinion of - Tony Avella favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Favorable 16% 11% 20% 10% 13% 17% 19% Unfavorable 6 8 5 7 6 5 6 Hvn't hrd enough 78 80 75 83 80 77 75 REFUSED 1 1 - - 1 1 - Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Favorable 28% 11% 12% 19% 8% 16% 16% Unfavorable 4 5 6 7 2 8 4 Hvn't hrd enough 68 83 81 73 89 76 80 REFUSED - 1 1 1 1 - 1
TREND: Is your opinion of - Tony Avella favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Jul 28 Jun 16 2009 2009 Favorable 16 9 Unfavorable 6 4 Hvn't hrd enough 78 87 REFUSED 1 1
15. Is your opinion of - William Thompson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Favorable 38% 14% 49% 27% 34% 56% 32% Unfavorable 9 19 6 11 11 4 10 Hvn't hrd enough 52 62 44 62 54 39 56 REFUSED 1 5 1 1 1 1 1 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Favorable 41% 40% 42% 33% 31% 38% 38% Unfavorable 6 8 11 11 7 11 7 Hvn't hrd enough 51 52 46 54 60 49 53 REFUSED 2 1 1 2 1 1 2
TREND: Is your opinion of - William Thompson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Jul 28 Jun 16 Mar 24 Feb 24 Jan 27 Nov 25 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 Favorable 38 29 25 22 25 25 Unfavorable 9 6 5 5 5 4 Hvn't hrd enough 52 63 68 71 69 70 REFUSED 1 2 2 1 2 1
16. Is your opinion of - Michael Bloomberg favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Favorable 59% 67% 58% 62% 66% 47% 57% Unfavorable 34 27 35 31 29 46 31 Hvn't hrd enough 3 1 3 3 1 4 6 REFUSED 4 5 4 4 4 3 6 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Favorable 48% 56% 68% 61% 62% 59% 59% Unfavorable 44 37 26 31 31 35 33 Hvn't hrd enough 6 4 1 2 1 2 3 REFUSED 3 4 5 6 6 4 5
TREND: Is your opinion of - Michael Bloomberg favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Jul 28 Jun 16 Mar 24 Feb 24 Jan 27 Nov 25 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 Favorable 59 64 62 62 66 61 Unfavorable 34 30 31 32 28 31 Hvn't hrd enough 3 3 3 2 3 4 REFUSED 4 3 4 4 3 3
17. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Michael Bloomberg is handling his job as Mayor?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Approve 63% 67% 64% 65% 69% 54% 62% Disapprove 29 27 29 29 26 36 29 DK/NA 8 6 8 6 5 10 9 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Approve 55% 54% 73% 68% 70% 65% 62% Disapprove 37 35 21 26 23 29 30 DK/NA 8 11 5 6 8 7 8
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Michael Bloomberg is handling his job as Mayor? (*High also 75% on 10/03/08, 3/12/08, 1/16/07 & 11/17/05)
APPROVE....... DIS.. High Low High Jul 28 Jun 16 Mar 24 Feb 24 Oct 21 Jul 2 Jul 2 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008* 2003 2003 Approve 63 66 64 65 75 31 31 Disapprove 29 27 28 29 20 60 60 DK/NA 8 7 8 6 6 8 8
18. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ray Kelly is handling his job as Police Commissioner?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Approve 67% 83% 62% 73% 80% 50% 64% Disapprove 20 9 23 19 10 34 20 DK/NA 13 8 15 8 10 16 16 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Approve 64% 65% 66% 71% 77% 67% 67% Disapprove 23 22 22 15 14 23 17 DK/NA 13 14 11 14 9 10 15
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ray Kelly is handling his job as Police Commissioner? (*High also 70% on 2/3/06)
APPROVE....... DIS.. High Low High Jul 28 Jun 17 Feb 24 Jan 27 Mar 9 Jan 16 Jan 16 2009 2009 2009 2009 2006* 2007 2007 Approve 67 63 64 67 70 52 52 Disapprove 20 22 20 19 17 34 34 DK/NA 13 14 16 14 13 14 14
19. Do you approve or disapprove of the way William Thompson is handling his job as City Comptroller?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Approve 53% 35% 60% 48% 51% 65% 48% Disapprove 10 17 9 9 9 9 12 DK/NA 37 47 31 43 40 26 40 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Approve 56% 49% 53% 54% 57% 53% 52% Disapprove 11 12 8 11 7 13 9 DK/NA 33 39 39 35 36 34 39
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way William Thompson is handling his job as City Comptroller? (* High also 53% Oct 3 2008)
APPROVE....... DIS.. High Low High Jul 28 Jun 16 Mar 24 Feb 24 Jul 28 Feb 26 Jul 2 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2003 2003 Approve 53 50 41 46 53 35 38 Disapprove 10 10 12 11 10 13 20 DK/NA 37 40 47 44 37 52 42
20. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Approve 74% 30% 91% 61% 63% 92% 80% Disapprove 20 61 6 28 32 3 14 DK/NA 6 10 3 11 5 5 6 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Approve 84% 70% 80% 71% 59% 67% 79% Disapprove 12 22 14 23 38 27 14 DK/NA 4 9 6 6 3 6 6
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
Jul 28 Jun 16 Feb 25 2009 2009 2009 Approve 74 79 78 Disapprove 20 16 13 DK/NA 6 6 9
21. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New York City today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Very satisfied 8% 8% 7% 7% 9% 4% 10% Smwht satisfied 51 50 53 51 54 50 46 Smwht dissatisfied 26 24 27 25 24 29 25 Very dissatisfied 14 15 11 17 12 16 18 DK/NA 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Very satisfied 4% 6% 13% 8% 2% 7% 8% Smwht satisfied 54 47 53 53 49 52 50 Smwht dissatisfied 27 30 22 25 30 25 27 Very dissatisfied 15 16 10 14 18 15 13 DK/NA - 2 2 - 1 1 1
TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New York City today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
VERY+SMWHT... High Low Jul 28 Jun 16 Mar 24 Feb 24 Jan 28 Feb 11 Jul 2 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 1998 2003 Very satisfied 8 8 8 5 8 18 7 Smwht satisfied 51 51 45 44 47 58 23 Smwht dissatisfied 26 27 31 33 30 18 32 Very dissatisfied 14 13 14 17 15 5 38 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
22. Some people say that Mayor Bloomberg's campaign spending is a case of overkill. Do you agree or disagree?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Agree 61% 57% 62% 61% 65% 58% 54% Disagree 30 35 29 29 28 32 37 DK/NA 9 8 8 10 7 10 9 Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom Agree 60% 60% 63% 62% 63% 63% 60% Disagree 28 29 30 31 32 28 31 DK/NA 11 11 7 7 5 9 9
TREND: Some people say that Mayor Bloomberg's campaign spending is a case of overkill. Do you agree or disagree?
Jul 28 Jun 16 2009 2009 Agree 61 56 Disagree 30 36 DK/NA 9 9