New York City (NYC) Poll * October 24, 2001 * Green Leads 51 - 35 Percent In - Quinnipiac University

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October 24, 2001 - Green Leads 51 - 35 Percent In Mayoral Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Bloomberg Seen Better To Rebuild New York City


Public Advocate Mark Green has a 51 - 35 percent lead over businessman Michael Bloomberg among likely voters in the race for New York City mayor, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Thirteen percent are undecided.
Green leads 71 - 16 percent among Democratic likely voters, while Bloomberg leads 84 - 13 percent among Republican voters and 50 - 36 percent among independent voters. White voters support Green 47 - 42 percent, while black voters support Green 66 - 19 percent and Hispanic voters support Bloomberg 44 - 41 percent, a tie.
From October 16 - 22, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,042 New York City registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3 percent. The sample includes 552 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percent.
"When we first measured Michael Bloomberg against Mark Green in June, the Republican trailed 62 - 20 percent. Forty million dollars later, Bloomberg has narrowed the gap to 16 points. But Mark Green is still 16 points ahead with 13 days to go," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Both candidates get OK favorability ratings and Green gets only tepid support from his
followers, so one major blunder could decide this race," Carroll added.
By a 39 - 20 percent margin, likely voters have a favorable opinion of Green, with 34 percent mixed and 6 percent saying they haven't heard enough to form an opinion.
Bloomberg gets a 35 - 20 percent favorability rating, with 28 percent mixed and 15 percent saying they haven't heard enough to form an opinion.
Only 34 percent of Green's supporters say they "strongly favor" their candidate, while 48 percent favor him "with reservations." For Bloomberg, 46 percent of his backers "strongly favor" him, while 32 percent back him "with reservations."
Looking at key issues, New York City likely voters say:
50 - 31 percent that Green would do a better job on education; 55 - 29 percent that Bloomberg would do a better job rebuilding the city; 43 - 36 percent that Green would do a better job on crime; 61 - 25 percent that Bloomberg would do a better job on the economy.
In open-ended questions, where voters can give any answers, 29 percent say the reason Green would make a good mayor is political experience/record, while there was no strong choice on why Green would not be a good mayor.
Bloomberg's best qualification for mayor is his business experience, 36 percent say, while 31 percent say the lack of political experience is his biggest shortcoming. "The thing voters like most about Bloomberg is that he's not a politician. The thing voters dislike most about Bloomberg is that he's not a politician," Carroll said.
Mayor Rudolph Giuliani enjoys a 79 - 17 percent approval rating among all
New York City registered voters, continuing his highest ever ratings.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut as a public service and for research.
For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or call (203) 582-5201
2. Is your opinion of Mark Green favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Reg Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Favorable 34% 39% 16% 51% 24% 36% 52% 22% Unfavorable 17 20 52 11 22 22 12 27 Mixed 33 34 25 32 45 39 27 29 Hvn't hrd enough 14 6 8 5 9 3 6 18 REFUSED 2 1 - 1 - - 2 3
3. Is your opinion of Michael Bloomberg favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Reg Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Favorable 33% 35% 72% 21% 40% 40% 22% 45% Unfavorable 16 20 6 27 13 20 18 16 Mixed 26 28 18 31 30 30 28 17 Hvn't hrd enough 23 15 4 17 16 8 30 20 REFUSED 2 2 - 3 1 2 2 3
4. If the election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Mark Green the Democrat and Michael Bloomberg the Republican for whom would you vote?
Tot LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Reg Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Green 49% 51% 13% 71% 36% 47% 66% 41% Bloomberg 35 35 84 16 50 42 19 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 - 1 2 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - - - - - - - DK/NA 13 12 3 12 12 10 13 14
6. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS ......... Green Bloomberg Voters Voters Made up 69% 71% Might change 30 28 DK/NA 1 -
7. Would you describe your support for Green/Bloomberg as strongly favoring him, or do you like him but with reservations, or do you support Green/Bloomberg because you dislike the other candidate?
LIKELY VOTERS ......... Green Bloomberg Voters Voters Strongly favor 34% 46% Like with reservations 48 32 Dislike other candidate 14 21 DK/NA 4 -
12. Is there anything in particular about Mark Green that makes you think that he would make a good Mayor? (Up to 3 responses allowed, may total >100%)
Tot LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Reg Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Leadership qualities 1% 1% - 1% 1% 1% 1% - Intelligent/ Knowledgeable 2 4 - 5 4 6 - - Good speaker 2 2 - 2 4 2 3 - Political exp. 25 31 20 35 33 35 25 26 Good political record 4 5 1 7 5 4 8 3 Stand on issues (general) 2 2 - 3 3 3 2 2 Stand on education 8 9 3 12 7 9 11 5 Stand on economy 1 1 - 1 - 1 2 - Stand on health care 1 1 - 1 - - 1 2 Honesty/Integrity/ Character/Trust 3 3 - 5 1 3 5 2 Compassionate/ Cares for people 2 2 - 3 - 2 1 1 Personality/ Style/Charisma 1 1 - 1 1 1 2 - Aggressive/Strong/ Fights for what he believes in 2 2 - 3 2 3 2 - Supports/Fights for poor 1 - 1 - - - 1 2 Party 6 6 3 9 - 6 6 7 Political Philosophy 2 2 - 4 - 3 1 - Good endorsements 1 1 - 1 2 2 1 - Knows NYC 1 2 1 2 3 1 3 - Not like Guiliani 1 1 - 1 1 1 2 - Lead rebuilding of NYC 1 2 - 3 - 3 1 - Other 16 19 8 21 16 17 23 13 DK/NA 43 37 66 25 39 36 27 55
13. Is there anything in particular about Mark Green that makes you think that he would not make a good Mayor? (Up to 3 responses allowed, may total >100%)
Tot LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Reg Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Lack of leadership qualities 1% 2% 1% 2% 1% 3% 1% 1% Not intelligent/ Not knowledgeable 1 1 3 - 1 1 1 - Weak on issues/ vague/indecisive 1 1 - - 1 - 2 3 Flip-flops on issues 1 2 3 1 2 2 2 2 Lacking exp./ Political record 3 4 5 3 6 6 2 3 Poor record 1 1 2 - 1 1 1 1 Insider/Typical pol 2 3 3 1 8 4 2 3 Stand on issues(gen) 1 1 - - 1 1 - - Stand on education 1 2 1 2 2 2 1 1 Stand on crime 1 1 1 - 2 1 1 - Stand on race rel 1 1 - - 2 1 1 - Lack of support for NYPD 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 - Lacking honesty/ Integrity/Trust 3 4 5 2 6 3 1 9 Personality/Style 2 3 - 4 3 4 1 3 Arrogant/Smug 3 5 1 6 6 8 1 - Racialy divisive 1 1 - 1 1 - - 2 Party 1 1 3 - 1 1 1 - Political philosophy 4 6 17 2 10 10 - 3 Campaign style 2 3 1 4 1 2 4 1 Campaign vs Ferrer 2 2 2 2 3 1 3 1 Not like Guiliani 1 1 3 1 - 2 - 2 Support of Guiliani extension 2 2 - 3 2 2 5 - Just don't like him 1 1 5 - 1 1 1 2 Other 17 23 29 18 26 23 15 23 DK/NA 58 47 31 56 35 37 65 54
4. Is there anything in particular about Michael Bloomberg that makes you think that he would make a good Mayor? (Up to 3 responses allowed, may total >100%)
Tot LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Reg Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Leadership qualities 4% 4% 11% 2% 4% 3% 2% 9% Intelligent/ Knowledgeable 2 2 7 1 1 3 1 1 Good speaker 1 1 - 1 - 1 1 - Independent/Not insider pol/ fresh face 5 6 8 3 10 7 3 6 Doesn't owe favors/ Can't be bribed 2 3 5 2 2 3 3 - Stand on education 2 1 - 1 1 - 2 5 Stand on economy 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 - Stand on crime 1 1 3 - 1 1 - - Honesty/Integrity/ Character/Trust 2 3 4 2 4 2 2 6 Compassionate/Cares for people 1 1 1 - 1 - 3 - Personality/ Style/Charisma 1 1 - 1 1 - 1 4 Aggressive/Strong/ Fights for what he believes in 1 1 - 1 1 1 2 - Selfmade man/ Hard-worker 2 2 4 2 2 3 2 4 Party 1 1 - 1 1 - 2 - Political Phil 1 - 1 - 1 1 - - Business exp/ Management skills 36 40 47 35 53 44 34 40 Background good for NYC economy 10 11 13 10 12 12 10 16 Wealthy 2 2 4 2 2 1 2 3 Knows NYC 1 1 1 - - - 2 - More like Guiliani 3 2 9 - 2 3 - 2 Will rebuild NYC 2 2 3 1 3 2 2 2 Other 11 13 16 9 17 16 9 8 DK/NA 40 34 20 43 21 29 43 36
15. Is there anything in particular about Michael Bloomberg that makes you think that he would not make a good Mayor? (Up to 3 responses allowed, may total >100%)
Tot LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Reg Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Uncooperative/ Not team-player/ Dictator 1% 2% 3% 1% 2% 2% - 1% Lacking exp/ Political record 31 37 27 39 40 47 21 17 Stand on education 1 1 - 1 - - 2 - Stand on race rel 1 1 - - 2 - 2 - Lacking honesty/ Integrity/Trust 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 - Not compassionate/ Doesn't care about people 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 - Arrogant/Smug 1 2 - 3 1 2 2 1 Party 3 4 3 6 1 4 3 3 Political phil 1 1 - 1 1 1 - 2 Too rich/wealthy/ spoiled 3 3 1 4 2 4 2 3 Out of touch with average New Yorker 1 2 1 1 3 2 1 1 Policies will favor rich over middle/ lower classes 2 2 - 3 1 2 1 1 Represents big business 1 2 - 2 2 2 2 2 Buying election 1 1 - 2 1 2 - 3 More like Guiliani 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 - Other 10 11 11 11 11 12 10 10 DK/NA 49 41 59 36 40 33 55 57
16. Which is more important to you when voting for Mayor, the experience and personal qualities of the candidate or the candidate's positions on specific issues?
Tot LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Reg Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Experience and qualities 43% 41% 53% 40% 39% 38% 44% 48% Positions on issues 47 47 41 46 49 50 44 44 DK/NA 10 12 7 14 12 12 12 8
17. I'm going to read off some personal characteristics and qualities. As I read each one, tell me if you think it applies to Mark Green or not. Would you say that Mark Green - Is honest and trustworthy or not?
Tot LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Reg Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Yes 58% 62% 55% 72% 51% 65% 71% 45% No 22 24 37 15 30 24 18 33 DK/NA 20 14 8 13 19 11 11 22
18. Would you say that Mark Green - has a likable personality or not?
Tot LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Reg Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Yes 60% 59% 52% 64% 53% 51% 78% 61% No 28 32 39 27 36 39 15 23 DK/NA 12 10 9 9 11 10 7 16
19. Would you say that Mark Green - cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
Tot LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Reg Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Yes 64% 66% 37% 81% 53% 66% 68% 60% No 21 25 55 10 36 27 19 24 DK/NA 15 10 8 9 11 7 13 17
20. Would you say that Mark Green - has the right kind of experience
Tot LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Reg Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Yes 69% 71% 41% 84% 64% 70% 80% 56% No 18 22 53 10 28 25 16 28 DK/NA 13 6 5 6 7 6 5 16
21. Would you say that Mark Green - has strong leadership qualities or not?
Tot LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Reg Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Yes 51% 52% 32% 64% 43% 45% 66% 48% No 27 31 58 19 38 37 20 32 DK/NA 22 17 10 17 19 18 14 20
22. Would you say that Mark Green - shares your views on issues that you care about or not?
Tot LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Reg Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Yes 55% 59% 17% 77% 50% 57% 69% 50% No 30 33 76 15 42 37 19 34 DK/NA 16 8 8 8 9 6 12 16
23. Would you say that Michael Bloomberg - Is honest and trustworthy or not?
Tot LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Reg Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Yes 59% 62% 85% 54% 68% 67% 54% 65% No 13 13 9 16 10 11 15 17 DK/NA 28 24 6 30 22 22 31 18
24. Would you say that Michael Bloomberg - has a likable personality or not?
Tot LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Reg Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Yes 59% 59% 79% 53% 60% 56% 61% 69% No 20 21 6 24 24 25 17 15 DK/NA 21 20 14 22 17 19 22 16
25. Would you say that Michael Bloomberg - cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
Tot LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Reg Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Yes 47% 47% 77% 36% 54% 52% 39% 48% No 29 31 13 39 24 30 35 23 DK/NA 24 22 10 26 22 19 26 29
26. Would you say that Michael Bloomberg - has the right kind of experience to be Mayor of New York City or not?
Tot LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Reg Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Yes 41% 42% 72% 29% 50% 39% 46% 44% No 40 44 18 57 35 49 41 32 DK/NA 20 14 10 14 15 12 13 23
27. Would you say that Michael Bloomberg - has strong leadership qualities or not?
Tot LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Reg Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Yes 73% 77% 86% 68% 90% 78% 72% 84% No 12 12 8 17 3 11 15 8 DK/NA 15 12 7 15 7 11 13 7
28. Would you say that Michael Bloomberg - shares your views on issues that you care about or not?
Tot LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Reg Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Yes 44% 48% 86% 33% 59% 52% 41% 46% No 32 33 6 43 24 30 37 30 DK/NA 24 20 8 24 17 18 22 24
29. Regardless of how you intend to vote for Mayor, who do you think would do a better job on education - Michael Bloomberg or Mark Green?
Tot LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Reg Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Bloomberg 31% 34% 65% 19% 45% 35% 29% 43% Green 50 50 23 67 35 50 56 39 DK/NA 19 16 12 14 20 16 16 18
30. Regardless of how you intend to vote for Mayor, who do you think would do a better job on rebuilding New York City - Michael Bloomberg or Mark Green?
Tot LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Reg Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Bloomberg 55% 57% 85% 42% 71% 60% 48% 62% Green 29 28 10 40 15 25 35 24 DK/NA 17 15 4 18 14 15 17 13
31. Regardless of how you intend to vote for Mayor, who do you think would do a better job on crime - Michael Bloomberg or Mark Green?
Tot LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Reg Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Bloomberg 36% 37% 68% 22% 52% 42% 21% 46% Green 43 44 23 59 28 39 61 39 DK/NA 21 18 9 19 20 19 17 14
32. Regardless of how you intend to vote for Mayor, who do you think would do a better job on the economy - Michael Bloomberg or Mark Green?
Tot LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Reg Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Bloomberg 61% 62% 84% 49% 74% 65% 54% 72% Green 25 24 9 35 15 21 37 19 DK/NA 14 13 7 16 10 15 10 8
33. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rudolph Giuliani is handling his job as Mayor?
Tot LIKELY VOTERS....................................... Reg Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Approve 79% 78% 94% 74% 78% 86% 60% 85% Disapprove 17 20 6 23 19 13 35 12 DK/NA 4 3 - 3 4 1 5 3