New York State (NY) Poll * October 3, 2007 * Clinton Tops Giuliani By 11 Po - Quinnipiac University

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October 3, 2007 - Clinton Tops Giuliani By 11 Points In New York State, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Favorite Son And Daughter Dominate Party Primaries

Word format Sen. Hillary Clinton leads the Republican front-runner, former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani 52 - 41 percent in the 2008 New York State presidential sweepstakes, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
Sen. Clinton leads Illinois Sen. Barack Obama 47 - 15 percent in a Democratic primary, with 9 percent for former Vice President Al Gore and 7 percent for former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.
On the Republican side, Giuliani leads with 48 percent, followed by Arizona Sen. John McCain and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson, with 8 percent each, and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney with 5 percent.
In other head-to-head presidential matchups:
Clinton tops McCain 54 - 37 percent; Thompson 58 - 30 percent and Romney 59 - 30 percent; Giuliani ties Obama 45 - 45 percent, and gets 45 percent to Edwards' 44 percent; Obama beats McCain 47 - 39 percent, Thompson 53 - 29 percent and Romney 54 - 28 percent; Edwards tops McCain 48 - 37 percent, Thompson 55 - 28 percent and Romney 57 - 24 percent.
"New York State is as blue as ever. Giuliani is 'America's Mayor,' but on his home turf, he trails Sen. Clinton by 11 points," said Maurice Carroll, Director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Sen. Obama makes a splash when he comes in to New York. But Clinton trounces him among Democrats. Among Republicans, it's even more one sided. Against Giuliani there is no candidate whose support reaches double digits."
Clinton gets a 58 - 37 percent favorability rating and a 65 - 30 percent approval of the job she's doing as Senator. Favorability ratings for other contenders are:
55 - 38 percent for Giuliani; 49 - 28 percent for McCain; 54 - 20 percent for Obama; 50 - 26 percent for Edwards; 55 - 34 percent for Gore; Negative 22 - 28 percent for Romney; 25 - 24 percent for Thompson.
"To know them is not, it seems, necessarily to love them. A lot more New Yorkers like Clinton and Giuliani than dislike them, but both have high negative numbers," Carroll said.
Looking at the field of candidates, 61 percent of New York State voters are satisfied, while 35 percent are still shopping for a candidate.
Democrats say 52 - 41 percent that Clinton does not have the nomination "locked up." Republicans say 72 - 21 percent that Giuliani does not have the nomination "locked up."
And voters say 69 - 27 percent that the current presidential campaign is too long.
"Good Lord, will it never end? Almost 70 percent of New Yorkers think this presidential campaign is too long. But they don't believe the front-runners have it locked up," Carroll said. "Still, a lot of Republicans - and a lot more Democrats - are satisfied with their parties' field of candidates."
From September 24 - 30, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,504 New York State voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percent. The survey includes 476 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percent, and 637 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percent.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x271.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Al Gore, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama and Bill Richardson for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED DEMOCRATS Tot Men Wom Biden 3% 6% 1% Clinton 47 40 52 Dodd - - - Edwards 7 7 7 Gore 9 13 7 Gravel - - - Kucinich 2 2 2 Obama 15 15 15 Richardson 1 2 - SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 2 DK/NA 12 12 11
TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Al Gore, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama and Bill Richardson, for whom would you vote? na = not asked
REGISTERED DEMOCRATS.......... Oct 3 Jun 20 Apr 5 Feb 14 2007 2007 2007 2007 Biden 3 1 1 1 Clark na na - 1 Clinton 47 44 44 47 Dodd - - - 1 Edwards 7 6 9 7 Gore 9 18 14 11 Gravel - - - na Kucinich 2 1 1 1 Obama 15 14 14 16 Richardson 1 3 1 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 1 DK/NA 12 10 13 12
2. (If registered Republican) If the 2008 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Sam Brownback, Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo and Fred Thompson for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED REPUBLICANS Tot Men Wom Brownback 1% 1% -% Gingrich 5 4 6 Giuliani 48 51 44 Huckabee 1 1 1 Hunter - - - McCain 8 8 8 Paul 1 1 1 Romney 5 6 4 Tancredo 1 1 - Thompson,F. 8 10 5 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 4 DK/NA 17 13 22
TREND: (If registered Republican) If the 2008 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Sam Brownback, Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, and Fred Thompson,for whom would you vote? na = not asked
REGISTERED REPUBLICANS........ Oct 3 Jun 20 Apr 5 Feb 14 2007 2007 2007 2007 Brownback 1 1 1 - Gilmore na - - - Gingrich 5 6 3 6 Giuliani 48 46 52 51 Hagel na na 1 1 Huckabee 1 1 - 2 Hunter - - - 1 McCain 8 8 13 17 Pataki na na 6 7 Paul 1 - - na Romney 5 3 4 1 Tancredo 1 - - 1 Thompson, F. 8 14 3 na Thompson, T. na - - - SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 4 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 2 2 DK/NA 17 14 12 9
3. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Clinton 52% 7% 88% 46% 43% 59% Giuliani 41 88 9 42 49 33 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - - 4 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 2 1 DK/NA 5 3 2 6 5 4
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote? * - Hillary Rodham Clinton and Rudolph Giuliani
Oct 3 Jun 20 Apr 5 Feb 14 Dec 8 Sep 14 2007 2007 2007 2007 2004* 2004* Clinton 52 52 50 50 46 43 Giuliani 41 37 42 40 45 50 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 2 1 3 1 DK/NA 5 7 5 6 5 5
4. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 45% 7% 76% 39% 38% 51% Giuliani 45 87 17 45 52 38 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 3 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 2 4 2 2 DK/NA 6 4 4 9 5 7
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Oct 3 Jun 20 Apr 5 2007 2007 2007 Obama 45 43 44 Giuliani 45 43 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 4 2 DK/NA 6 8 9
5. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were John Edwards the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Edwards 44% 7% 73% 39% 37% 49% Giuliani 45 86 19 44 51 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 2 4 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 2 4 4 2 DK/NA 6 3 3 9 5 6
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were John Edwards the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Oct 3 Apr 5 2007 2007 Edwards 44 47 Giuliani 45 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 DK/NA 6 7
6. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Clinton 54% 9% 89% 48% 44% 62% McCain 37 82 7 38 46 29 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 - 3 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 2 4 3 3 DK/NA 5 5 2 7 6 5
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Oct 3 Jun 20 Apr 5 Feb 14 2007 2007 2007 2007 Clinton 54 56 55 56 McCain 37 32 34 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 2 2 DK/NA 5 7 8 6
7. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 47% 9% 78% 41% 40% 53% McCain 39 79 13 39 46 32 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 1 4 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 2 2 6 4 3 DK/NA 8 7 5 11 8 9
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Oct 3 Jun 20 Apr 5 Feb 14 2007 2007 2007 2007 Obama 47 48 47 46 McCain 39 33 36 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 3 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 3 3 DK/NA 8 12 12 14
8. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were John Edwards the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Edwards 48% 10% 81% 40% 39% 55% McCain 37 79 10 38 45 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 4 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 3 5 5 3 DK/NA 9 7 4 13 9 9
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were John Edwards the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Oct 3 Apr 5 Feb 14 2007 2007 2007 Edwards 48 52 48 McCain 37 34 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 3 DK/NA 9 10 12
9. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Fred Thompson the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Clinton 58% 13% 91% 55% 51% 64% Thompson 30 72 4 30 38 23 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 3 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 2 4 4 3 DK/NA 6 9 2 7 6 7
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Fred Thompson the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Oct 3 Jun 20 2007 2007 Clinton 58 56 Thompson 30 29 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 DK/NA 6 9
10. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Fred Thompson the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 53% 16% 81% 51% 47% 59% Thompson 29 67 9 26 36 23 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 4 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 5 2 8 5 4 DK/NA 10 11 6 12 9 11
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Fred Thompson the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Oct 3 Jun 20 2007 2007 Obama 53 51 Thompson 29 27 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 5 DK/NA 10 15
11. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were John Edwards the Democrat and Fred Thompson the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Edwards 55% 21% 83% 52% 48% 61% Thompson 28 65 7 26 37 20 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 2 5 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 3 6 5 4 DK/NA 9 9 5 12 8 11
12. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Clinton 59% 17% 92% 55% 50% 66% Romney 30 70 4 29 37 23 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 - 4 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 5 1 4 4 3 DK/NA 6 7 3 8 6 6
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Oct 3 Apr 5 Feb 14 2007 2007 2007 Clinton 59 61 61 Romney 30 26 25 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 3 DK/NA 6 8 9
13. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 54% 17% 83% 52% 46% 61% Romney 28 68 7 24 38 20 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 2 5 4 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 2 8 4 4 DK/NA 10 11 7 11 8 12
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Oct 3 Apr 5 2007 2007 Obama 54 53 Romney 28 23 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 DK/NA 10 17
14. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were John Edwards the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Edwards 57% 21% 87% 53% 50% 64% Romney 24 61 3 21 32 17 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 4 2 2 7 5 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 6 3 7 6 4 DK/NA 10 11 6 11 8 12
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were John Edwards the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Oct 3 Apr 5 2007 2007 Edwards 57 59 Romney 24 21 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 4 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 4 DK/NA 10 13
TREND: Is your opinion of -- favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him/her? Score = %Favorable (%Haven't Heard Enough)
Oct 3 Jun 20 Apr 5 Feb 14 2007 2007 2007 2007 Clinton, Hillary 58( 3) 59( 5) 58( 4) 59( 4) Edwards, John 50(21) 40(29) 58(25) 44(33) Giuliani, Rudy 55( 5) 55( 7) 55( 8) 56(11) Gore, Al 55( 9) 57( 9) na 52( 5) McCain, John 49(20) 40(25) 47(27) 48(26) Obama, Barack 54(24) 48(33) 48(38) 44(46) Romney, Mitt 22(48) 17(60) 14(69) 13(72) Thompson, Fred 25(50) 22(57) 12(78) na
15. Is your opinion of -- Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 58% 19% 88% 55% 50% 66% Unfavorable 37 77 8 39 46 29 Hvn't hrd enough 3 2 2 4 3 4 REFUSED 2 2 2 2 2 2
TREND: Is your opinion of -- Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
Oct 3 Jun 20 Apr 5 Feb 14 2007 2007 2007 2007 Favorable 58 59 58 59 Unfavorable 37 34 35 35 Hvn't hrd enough 3 5 4 4 REFUSED 2 2 3 2
16. Is your opinion of -- John Edwards favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 50% 27% 69% 48% 48% 51% Unfavorable 26 53 11 24 32 21 Hvn't hrd enough 21 19 17 26 17 25 REFUSED 3 1 3 3 3 3
TREND: Is your opinion of -- John Edwards favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Oct 3 Jun 20 Apr 5 Feb 14 2007 2007 2007 2007 Favorable 50 40 58 44 Unfavorable 26 30 14 21 Hvn't hrd enough 21 29 25 33 REFUSED 3 2 3 1
17. Is your opinion of -- Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 55% 88% 31% 57% 61% 49% Unfavorable 38 5 61 37 35 40 Hvn't hrd enough 5 5 5 5 3 7 REFUSED 2 1 3 1 1 3
TREND: Is your opinion of -- Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Oct 3 Jun 20 Apr 5 Feb 14 2007 2007 2007 2007 Favorable 55 55 55 56 Unfavorable 38 36 35 30 Hvn't hrd enough 5 7 8 11 REFUSED 2 3 2 3
18. Is your opinion of -- Al Gore favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 55% 21% 76% 56% 51% 57% Unfavorable 34 70 11 34 40 29 Hvn't hrd enough 9 8 10 9 7 11 REFUSED 2 1 2 2 2 2
TREND: Is your opinion of -- Al Gore favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Oct 3 Jun 20 Feb 14 2007 2007 2007 Favorable 55 57 52 Unfavorable 34 32 40 Hvn't hrd enough 9 9 5 REFUSED 2 1 2
19. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 49% 72% 31% 52% 56% 42% Unfavorable 28 12 40 26 29 26 Hvn't hrd enough 20 15 23 20 11 29 REFUSED 3 1 5 3 4 3
TREND: Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Oct 3 Jun 20 Apr 5 Feb 14 2007 2007 2007 2007 Favorable 49 40 47 48 Unfavorable 28 33 23 24 Hvn't hrd enough 20 25 27 26 REFUSED 3 2 2 2
20. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 54% 29% 73% 54% 50% 58% Unfavorable 20 44 8 15 25 15 Hvn't hrd enough 24 25 16 30 22 25 REFUSED 3 3 3 1 2 3
TREND: Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Oct 3 Jun 20 Apr 5 Feb 14 2007 2007 2007 2007 Favorable 54 48 48 44 Unfavorable 20 17 12 9 Hvn't hrd enough 24 33 38 46 REFUSED 3 2 1 1
21. Is your opinion of -- Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 22% 46% 7% 20% 29% 15% Unfavorable 28 13 41 27 30 27 Hvn't hrd enough 48 40 49 52 38 56 REFUSED 2 1 2 2 2 2
TREND: Is your opinion of -- Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Oct 3 Jun 20 Apr 5 Feb 14 2007 2007 2007 2007 Favorable 22 17 14 13 Unfavorable 28 22 16 14 Hvn't hrd enough 48 60 69 72 REFUSED 2 2 1 1
22. Is your opinion of -- Fred Thompson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 25% 48% 10% 24% 35% 16% Unfavorable 24 10 34 22 23 24 Hvn't hrd enough 50 42 53 52 39 59 REFUSED 2 1 3 3 3 2
TREND: Is your opinion of -- Fred Thompson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Oct 3 Jun 20 Apr 5 2007 2007 2007 Favorable 25 22 12 Unfavorable 24 18 10 Hvn't hrd enough 50 57 78 REFUSED 2 2 1
23. Are you satisfied with the field of candidates running for President or are you still shopping for a candidate?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Satisfied 61% 57% 75% 50% 59% 62% Still shopping 35 40 21 44 37 33 DK/NA 5 3 4 6 4 5
24. (If registered Democrat) Do you think Hillary Clinton has the Democratic nomination for President locked up?
REGISTERED DEMOCRATS Tot Men Wom Yes 41% 37% 44% No 52 57 48 DK/NA 7 6 8
25. (If registered Republican) Do you think Rudy Giuliani has the Republican nomination for President locked up?
REGISTERED REPUBLICANS Tot Men Wom Yes 21% 23% 20% No 72 73 71 DK/NA 7 4 9
26. Do you think the current Presidential campaign is too long?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 69% 74% 66% 72% 71% 68% No 27 23 30 25 26 27 DK/NA 4 3 4 2 3 5