New York State (NY) Poll * February 4, 2008 * Obama Closes On Clinton In New - Quinnipiac University

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February 4, 2008 - Obama Closes On Clinton In New York, New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Likely Voter Polls Find; Mccain Has Big Leads In Both States --- NEW YORK: Clinton 53 - Obama 39; McCain 54 - Romney 22 NEW JERSEY: Clinton 48 - Obama 43; McCain 52 - Romney 30

Word format Illinois Sen. Barack Obama could make it a fourth quarter surprise for Sen. Hillary Clinton among Democratic likely presidential primary voters in New Jersey and has gained ground on Sen. Clinton in New York, according to two separate Quinnipiac University polls released today. Arizona Sen. John McCain has commanding leads over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney among likely Republican primary voters in both states.
In New York, Sen. Clinton leads Illinois Sen. Barack Obama 53 - 39 percent among likely Democratic primary voters, compared to 51 - 25 percent January 22.
McCain leads Romney 54 - 22 percent among likely Republican voters, up from 30 - 9 percent in a January 22 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee gets 9 percent.
In New Jersey, Clinton edges Obama 48 - 43 percent among likely Democratic voters, compared to 49 - 32 percent January 23.
McCain tops Romney 52 - 30 percent among likely Republican voters, compared to 29 - 14 percent January 23. Huckabee and Texas Congressman Ron Paul get 6 percent each.
"Sen. Obama has put together a coalition of blacks and independents to dramatically narrow the gap in just the last few days in New Jersey, but the big question remains: Will there be enough of these new, young, first time voters showing up to pull a surprise on Super Tuesday?" said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Sen. Obama has gained yardage in New York, but the clock is running out and Sen. Clinton still has the home field advantage," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
New York
A total of 80 percent of Clinton's Democratic backers say they are "not too likely" or "not likely at all" to change their minds, compared to 72 percent of Obama supporters.
Among Republicans, 67 percent of McCain supporters and 57 percent of Romney backers say they are not likely to change their minds.
"Sen. McCain, once written off for dead, is poised for a big win in New York, while Gov. Romney could be going home early," Carroll said.
New Jersey
For Clinton's Democratic voters, 78 percent say they are not likely to change their minds. Obama loyalty is at 78 percent also.
Among Republicans, 78 percent of McCain supporters and 68 percent of Romney backers say they are not likely to change their minds.
"New Jersey Democratic Party organizations are famous for getting out their vote in primary elections. When added to Sen. Clinton's strength among women, this could bring home the victory for the Senator next door. Three things will decide this race, turnout, turnout and turnout," Richards said.
"With Rudy Giuliani out of the race, New Jersey Republicans have flocked to John McCain as their candidate for president. There was never much talk about Mitt Romney among New Jersey Republicans as the Garden State prepares to join in what could be a party coronation for war hero senator from Arizona on Super Tuesday."
From January 30 - February 3, Quinnipiac University surveyed: New York: 370 likely Republican primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 5.1 percent, and 517 likely Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percent. New Jersey: 350 likely Republican primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 5.2 percent, and 463 likely Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percent. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x271.xml, or call (203) 582-5201. New York
1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama, for whom would you vote?(If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Clinton or Obama? This table includes "Leaners".
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS.......... Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Clinton 53% 51% 55% 58% 27% Obama 39 42 37 34 68 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - DK/NA 7 6 8 7 5
1a. (If express choice in Democratic Primary) How likely is it that you could change your mind? Very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, not likely at all?
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Clinton Obama Very likely 4% 3% 6% Smwht likely 18 16 20 Not too likely 19 18 21 Not likely at all 58 62 51 DK/NA 1 - 2
2. (If registered Rep) If the 2008 Republican primary for President were being held today and the candidates were Mike Huckabee, John McCain, Ron Paul, and Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q2) As of today, do you lean more toward Huckabee, McCain, Paul or Romney? This table includes "Leaners".
LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Huckabee 9% 9% 10% McCain 54 51 57 Paul 5 10 1 Romney 22 22 23 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 8 8 8
2a. (If express choice in Republican primary) How likely is it that you could change your mind? Very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, not likely at all?
LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot McCain Romney Very likely 4% 3% 3% Smwht likely 33 28 40 Not too likely 22 23 17 Not likely at all 40 44 40 DK/NA 2 3 - New Jersey
1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama, for whom would you vote?(If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Clinton or Obama? "This table includes "Leaners"
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS.......... Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Clinton 48% 40% 54% 56% 22% Obama 43 51 36 36 67 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - DK/NA 9 8 9 7 11
1a. (If express choice in Democratic Primary) How likely is it that you could change your mind? Very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, not likely at all?
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Clinton Obama Very likely 2% 2% 2% Smwht likely 18 18 18 Not too likely 21 21 21 Not likely at all 57 57 57 DK/NA 2 2 2
2. (If registered Republican) If the 2008 Republican primary for President were being held today and the candidates were Mike Huckabee, John McCain, Ron Paul, and Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q2) As of today, do you lean more toward Huckabee, McCain, Paul or Romney? *This table includes "Leaners"
LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Men Wom Huckabee 6% 5% 7% McCain 52 54 51 Paul 6 3 9 Romney 30 34 26 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 5 4 5
2a. (If express choice in Republican primary) How likely is it that you could change your mind? Very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, not likely at all?
LIKELY REP PRIMARY VOTERS Tot McCain Romney Very likely 5% 4% 6% Smwht likely 21 17 25 Not too likely 23 26 21 Not likely at all 50 52 47 DK/NA 2 1 2