New York State (NY) Poll * March 21, 2008 * Clinton Or Obama Top McCain In - Quinnipiac University

Home> Institutes and Centers> Quinnipiac University Polling Institute> New York State (NY)> Release Detail

March 21, 2008 - Clinton Or Obama Top McCain In New York State, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; White Voters Prefer Mccain Over Obama

Word format By almost identical margins, New York Sen. Hillary Clinton and Illinois Sen. Barack Obama top Arizona Sen. John McCain in the New York State presidential race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Clinton tops Sen. McCain 50 - 40 percent, while Obama is ahead 49 - 38 percent.
But there is a huge racial split in the Obama-McCain matchup. The Republican is ahead 47 - 40 percent among white New York State voters, while black voters back the Democrat 86 - 6 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Men back Obama 48 - 42 percent and women back him 50 - 35 percent.
White voters split in a Clinton-McCain face-off, with 46 percent for him and 45 percent for her. Blacks back Clinton 70 - 16 percent. Men also split, with 47 percent for McCain and 43 percent for Clinton. Women back Clinton 57 - 34 percent.
"It's a blue state, remember. Sen. McCain would lose to either Sen. Clinton or Sen. Obama by almost the same double-digit margin," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"But those racial and gender breakdowns are troubling for the Democrats. If Obama trails among white voters in New York, one of the most liberal states in the nation, what does that say about his chances in other states? And Clinton also must rely on a big turnout by women and blacks if she wants to win in November."
By a 53 - 40 percent margin, New York State voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton, compared to 56 - 25 percent for Obama and 49 - 31 percent for McCain.
Among registered Democrats, 32 percent would like to see a Clinton-Obama "Dream Ticket" in the November election, while 21 percent prefer an Obama-Clinton ticket and 39 percent don't want to see the Democratic contenders running together.
The most important quality New York State voters look for when they vote for President is:
28 percent, a strong leader; 27 percent, trustworthy; 21 percent, someone who shares their values; 14 percent, experienced.
The economy is the most important issue in how they will vote in November, 47 percent of voters say, followed by 22 percent who list the war in Iraq, 13 percent who list healthcare and 9 percent who list terrorism.
Describing their family's financial situation, 18 percent of voters say they are getting ahead, with 17 percent who say they are falling behind and 64 percent who say they are holding steady.
Despite the small showing for terrorism as an election issue, 70 percent of New York State voters are "very worried" or "somewhat worried" that there will be another major terrorist attack in the U.S.
Going to war in Iraq was the wrong thing to do, voters say 69 - 26 percent. The U.S. should withdraw all troops from Iraq as soon as possible, 23 percent say, with 49 percent who support a timetable for gradual troop withdrawal and 25 percent who say keep U.S. troops in Iraq as long as needed.
"Biggest issue: The economy. Most important trait: A toss-up between trustworthiness and leadership," Carroll said.
"It could be a standing sentence: President George W. Bush's job approval is, yet again, minute, 21 - 74 percent."
"On Iraq, half of all New Yorkers, and more than half of Democrats, favor a timed withdrawal. About a quarter of New Yorkers overall, and half of Republicans, would stay until the job is done."
From March 16 - 18, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,528 New York State registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data --http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
1. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Clinton 50% 10% 82% 39% 43% 57% 45% 70% McCain 40 82 11 45 47 34 46 16 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 2 2 2 1 1 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 3 3 3 2 2 6 DK/NA 6 6 3 11 6 6 7 6 UpState..... UpState Age Age Urban Othr Total NYC Sub 18-44 45+ Clinton 48% 44% 44% 59% 47% 52% 51% McCain 37 46 45 31 43 37 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 1 2 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 3 2 3 2 DK/NA 10 7 8 5 6 6 6
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Mar 21 Oct 3 Jun 20 Apr 5 Feb 14 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 Clinton 50 54 56 55 56 McCain 40 37 32 34 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 4 2 2 DK/NA 6 5 7 8 6
2. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 49% 13% 75% 44% 48% 50% 40% 86% McCain 38 79 12 43 42 35 47 6 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 3 1 1 3 1 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 3 3 2 3 3 1 DK/NA 8 6 6 10 7 9 9 5 UpState..... UpState Age Age Urban Othr Total NYC Sub 18-44 45+ Obama 54% 41% 42% 60% 45% 57% 45% McCain 32 45 43 29 45 32 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 3 1 - 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 4 3 2 1 2 3 DK/NA 13 9 10 6 8 9 7
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Mar 21 Oct 3 Jun 20 Apr 5 Feb 14 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 Obama 49 47 48 47 46 McCain 38 39 33 36 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 3 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 4 3 3 DK/NA 8 8 12 12 14
3. Is your opinion of -- Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 53% 25% 77% 44% 48% 57% 50% 67% Unfavorable 40 68 18 46 46 35 44 27 Hvn't hrd enough 5 3 4 6 4 5 4 4 REFUSED 3 3 2 3 3 3 2 2 UpState..... UpState Age Age Urban Othr Total NYC Sub 18-44 45+ Favorable 51% 48% 48% 55% 57% 51% 55% Unfavorable 36 45 44 36 37 38 40 Hvn't hrd enough 12 4 5 4 4 8 3 REFUSED 1 2 2 4 2 3 3
TREND: Is your opinion of -- Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
Mar 21 Dec 17 Oct 3 Jun 20 Apr 5 Feb 14 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Favorable 53 53 58 59 58 59 Unfavorable 40 34 37 34 35 35 Hvn't hrd enough 5 9 3 5 4 4 REFUSED 3 3 2 2 3 2
4. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 56% 35% 70% 56% 56% 56% 50% 82% Unfavorable 25 45 14 25 26 24 30 5 Hvn't hrd enough 17 18 15 17 16 18 18 11 REFUSED 2 2 1 2 1 2 2 1 UpState..... UpState Age Age Urban Othr Total NYC Sub 18-44 45+ Favorable 64% 51% 53% 62% 52% 61% 53% Unfavorable 18 29 28 22 25 24 25 Hvn't hrd enough 16 18 18 14 22 14 19 REFUSED 2 1 1 3 1 1 2
TREND: Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Mar 21 Oct 3 Jun 20 Apr 5 Feb 14 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 Favorable 56 54 48 48 44 Unfavorable 25 20 17 12 9 Hvn't hrd enough 17 24 33 38 46 REFUSED 2 3 2 1 1
5. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 49% 77% 28% 54% 59% 41% 56% 22% Unfavorable 31 10 47 26 27 34 26 58 Hvn't hrd enough 18 10 22 18 11 23 16 20 REFUSED 3 2 3 2 3 3 3 1 UpState..... UpState Age Age Urban Othr Total NYC Sub 18-44 45+ Favorable 46% 51% 50% 40% 60% 42% 52% Unfavorable 36 26 28 38 24 29 32 Hvn't hrd enough 14 20 19 19 13 26 13 REFUSED 4 3 3 2 3 3 3
TREND: Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Mar 21 Oct 3 Jun 20 Apr 5 Feb 14 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 Favorable 49 49 40 47 48 Unfavorable 31 28 33 23 24 Hvn't hrd enough 18 20 25 27 26 REFUSED 3 3 2 2 2
10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 21% 55% 5% 17% 23% 20% 24% 8% Disapprove 74 38 94 76 72 76 71 88 DK/NA 4 6 1 7 4 5 4 4 UpState..... UpState Age Age Urban Othr Total NYC Sub 18-44 45+ Approve 12% 27% 25% 16% 23% 20% 22% Disapprove 86 67 70 79 74 76 73 DK/NA 2 6 6 5 2 3 4
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? * also 82% on 10/2/01
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Mar 21 Dec 17 Jun 20 Apr 5 Feb 14 Nov 14 Mar 21 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 2001* 2008 Approve 21 22 24 26 24 82 21 Disapprove 74 73 71 72 72 15 74 DK/NA 4 5 5 3 4 3 4
12. Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year - terrorism, the war in Iraq, the economy, illegal immigration, or health care?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Terrorism 9% 21% 3% 8% 9% 9% 11% 7% The war in Iraq 22 16 27 21 19 25 22 20 The economy 47 42 47 53 53 42 47 46 Illegal immigration 4 9 2 3 4 5 4 1 Health care 13 8 17 10 11 15 11 22 SOMETHING ELSE (VOL) 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 1 DK/NA 3 2 2 3 2 3 3 2 UpState..... UpState Age Age Urban Othr Total NYC Sub 18-44 45+ Terrorism 6% 8% 8% 8% 12% 8% 10% The war in Iraq 23 20 20 21 26 20 22 The economy 51 48 49 47 46 51 46 Illegal immigration 2 3 3 4 7 3 5 Health care 13 15 14 16 5 15 11 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 DK/NA 4 4 4 2 1 1 3
13. When you decide how to vote for President, which of the following is the single most important quality you look for in a candidate - trustworthy, shares your values, a strong leader, experienced, or inspiring?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Trustworthy 27% 26% 25% 33% 28% 27% 29% 28% Shares your values 21 25 19 21 20 23 24 15 A strong leader 28 30 30 25 27 30 27 32 Experienced 14 14 15 12 13 15 14 15 Inspiring 5 2 8 5 8 3 4 9 DK/NA 3 2 3 4 5 3 3 2 UpState..... UpState Age Age Urban Othr Total NYC Sub 18-44 45+ Trustworthy 31% 30% 30% 24% 28% 24% 30% Shares your values 18 25 24 20 17 26 18 A strong leader 28 23 24 29 37 30 28 Experienced 17 13 14 16 10 11 16 Inspiring 3 5 5 6 5 7 4 DK/NA 3 4 3 4 2 3 3
14. Which best describes your family's financial situation - Getting ahead, falling behind or holding steady?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Getting ahead 18% 17% 19% 18% 23% 14% 17% 23% Falling behind 17 15 17 18 13 19 16 18 Holding steady 64 67 63 63 62 66 67 59 DK/NA 1 2 - 1 1 1 1 - UpState..... UpState Age Age Urban Othr Total NYC Sub 18-44 45+ Getting ahead 17% 15% 15% 18% 25% 24% 15% Falling behind 18 18 18 16 14 16 16 Holding steady 62 66 66 64 60 58 67 DK/NA 3 1 1 1 1 2 1
15. What do you think should happen to most illegal immigrants working in the United States - A) Should they be offered a chance to apply for citizenship, OR B) Should they be allowed to stay as temporary workers, OR C) Should they be deported to the country they came from?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Citizenship 47% 34% 57% 46% 48% 46% 42% 68% Temporary workers 25 24 25 26 22 27 23 18 Deported 22 34 13 24 26 19 27 9 DK/NA 6 8 5 4 4 8 7 5 UpState..... UpState Age Age Urban Othr Total NYC Sub 18-44 45+ Citizenship 29% 43% 41% 55% 46% 53% 45% Temporary workers 36 21 23 26 26 23 26 Deported 30 30 30 13 21 21 23 DK/NA 5 6 5 7 6 4 7
16. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Right thing 26% 57% 6% 29% 29% 23% 31% 6% Wrong thing 69 35 90 67 68 70 64 89 DK/NA 5 8 4 4 4 7 5 4 UpState..... UpState Age Age Urban Othr Total NYC Sub 18-44 45+ Right thing 23% 31% 30% 18% 28% 27% 25% Wrong thing 73 61 63 77 68 67 70 DK/NA 3 7 7 5 4 6 4
TREND: Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
Mar 21 Jun 20 Apr 5 Feb 14 Oct 5 May 18 Mar 30 2008 2007 2007 2007 2006 2006 2006 Right thing 26 30 31 30 30 27 34 Wrong thing 69 65 64 66 63 67 61 DK/NA 5 5 5 5 7 6 6
17. What should the United States do in Iraq? A) Withdraw all troops as soon as possible, OR B) Set a timetable to withdraw troops gradually OR C) Keep troops in Iraq as long as needed?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Withdraw all troops 23% 7% 34% 20% 20% 26% 18% 37% Set a timetable 49 39 55 52 44 54 50 54 Keep troops as needed 25 52 9 24 33 18 28 7 DK/NA 3 1 2 4 2 3 3 2 UpState..... UpState Age Age Urban Othr Total NYC Sub 18-44 45+ Withdraw all troops 19% 19% 19% 28% 22% 25% 22% Set a timetable 58 48 50 49 50 49 49 Keep troops as needed 19 30 28 20 27 23 26 DK/NA 3 3 3 3 1 2 2
18. How worried are you that there will be another major terrorist attack in the United States? Very worried, somewhat worried, not too worried, or not at all worried?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Very worried 23% 30% 22% 20% 18% 27% 22% 26% Smwht worried 47 50 43 51 47 47 50 37 Not too worried 19 14 24 18 20 18 20 19 Not at all worried 10 5 11 10 13 7 7 18 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 UpState..... UpState Age Age Urban Othr Total NYC Sub 18-44 45+ Very worried 24% 20% 21% 26% 23% 21% 24% Smwht worried 37 53 51 45 43 43 50 Not too worried 31 18 20 19 19 23 17 Not at all worried 7 8 8 10 13 13 8 DK/NA - 2 1 1 2 1 1
19. (If registered Democrat) Some people have suggested that Senator Obama and Senator Clinton should run together in the general election for President in November. It could be a Clinton-Obama ticket, with Clinton running for President and Obama for Vice-President, or it could be an Obama-Clinton ticket, with Obama running for President and Clinton for Vice-President. Which would you rather see - A Clinton-Obama ticket or an Obama-Clinton ticket, or would you rather they not run together?
REGISTERED DEMOCRATS............... Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Clinton-Obama ticket 32% 24% 37% 36% 22% Obama-Clinton ticket 21 24 20 13 39 Not run together 39 44 35 44 29 DK/NA 8 9 7 7 10 UpState Age Age Total NYC Sub 18-44 45+ Clinton-Obama ticket 37% 27% 36% 34% 32% Obama-Clinton ticket 22 22 20 28 18 Not run together 34 41 41 34 40 DK/NA 8 10 3 4 11