New York State (NY) Poll * April 18, 2008 * Blacks Key As Clinton Or Obama - Quinnipiac University

Home> Institutes and Centers> Quinnipiac University Polling Institute> New York State (NY)> Release Detail

April 18, 2008 - Blacks Key As Clinton Or Obama Top Mccain In New York, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Men Split In Clinton-Mccain Faceoff

Word format Black voter support is critical for Democratic presidential contenders in New York State, where Sen. Hillary Clinton tops Arizona Sen. John McCain, the likely Republican nominee, 49 - 37 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Illinois Sen. Barack Obama beats Sen. McCain 47 - 39 percent.
This compares to a 50 - 40 percent Clinton lead over McCain in a March 21 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. In that survey, Obama topped McCain 49 - 38 percent. A look at subgroups in the latest survey shows:
Clinton-McCain: White voters split with 45 percent for McCain and 42 percent for Clinton; blacks back Clinton 65 - 16 percent. Men split with 45 percent for Clinton and 44 percent for McCain; women back Clinton 53 - 31 percent. Obama-McCain: White voters back McCain 48 - 38 percent, as blacks go with Obama 83 - 8 percent. Men support Obama 47 - 42 percent and women back the Democrat 48 - 35 percent.
"In presidential politics, New York shows the same ethnic split that we've seen in other states. Sen. Hillary Clinton or Sen. Barack Obama beat Sen. John McCain by double digits - but that's because of the loyalty of black voters. She splits the white vote with McCain. Obama loses it," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
New York State voters split 48 - 45 percent in their favorable/unfavorable opinion of Clinton. Obama gets a 50 - 31 percent favorability, with 46 - 36 percent for McCain.
Clinton's favorability is down from 53 - 40 percent March 21, and at her lowest level in New York State in more than a year. But voters approve 62 - 31 percent of the job she's doing as Senator.
The economy is the most important issue in deciding how they will vote in November, 44 percent of New York State voters say, with 24 percent who list the war in Iraq and 12 percent who list health care.
The single most important quality in a candidate is leadership, 29 percent, with 26 percent looking for someone who is trustworthy and 25 percent looking for competence.
Looking at the election issues:
21 percent of voters say New York State's economy is "excellent" or "good," while 78 percent say the economy is "not so good" or "poor." Voters say 69 - 26 percent that going to war in Iraq was the wrong thing to do. Fifty percent of voters say set a timetable for U.S. troop withdrawal, while 24 percent say keep U.S. troops in Iraq as long as needed and 23 percent say withdraw all troops as soon as possible. It's the government's responsibility to make sure everyone in the U.S. has adequate health care, voters say 70 - 28 percent.
"The big issue? It's the economy, stupid," Carroll said.
"Sure, we're a true-blue state. But we divide by party on the big health-care issue. Should Washington guarantee health care for everyone? Democrats say yes 88 - 11 percent. Republicans say no 53 - 46 percent.
"And just for the record: New Yorkers still don't think much of President Bush or of the decision to go into Iraq."
From April 14 - 15, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,257 New York State voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research.
1. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Clinton 49% 10% 81% 40% 45% 53% 42% 65% McCain 37 79 10 42 44 31 45 16 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 2 1 3 1 5 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 2 4 4 3 3 5 DK/NA 9 7 5 13 7 11 9 8 UpState..... UpState Age Age Urban Othr Total NYC Sub 18-44 45+ Clinton 46% 43% 43% 58% 45% 50% 50% McCain 37 42 41 27 43 40 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 3 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 5 4 5 2 4 3 DK/NA 14 9 10 7 9 6 10
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Apr 18 Mar 21 Oct 3 Jun 20 Apr 5 Feb 14 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 Clinton 49 50 54 56 55 56 McCain 37 40 37 32 34 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 2 3 4 2 2 DK/NA 9 6 5 7 8 6
2. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 47% 13% 71% 46% 47% 48% 38% 83% McCain 39 77 17 39 42 35 48 8 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 2 1 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 3 5 3 3 4 1 DK/NA 9 6 9 9 7 11 9 7 UpState..... UpState Age Age Urban Othr Total NYC Sub 18-44 45+ Obama 46% 41% 42% 60% 38% 49% 48% McCain 42 45 44 28 46 40 38 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 2 2 1 - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 4 3 3 5 3 3 DK/NA 10 9 9 9 9 7 9
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Apr 18 Mar 21 Oct 3 Jun 20 Apr 5 Feb 14 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 Obama 47 49 47 48 47 46 McCain 39 38 39 33 36 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 3 3 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 4 4 3 3 DK/NA 9 8 8 12 12 14
3. Is your opinion of -- Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 48% 16% 73% 41% 45% 52% 45% 53% Unfavorable 45 78 21 51 51 40 49 41 Hvn't hrd enough 5 4 5 6 3 6 4 6 REFUSED 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 0 UpState..... UpState Age Age Urban Othr Total NYC Sub 18-44 45+ Favorable 48% 45% 46% 54% 44% 47% 49% Unfavorable 47 49 48 40 47 46 45 Hvn't hrd enough 4 3 3 5 6 7 3 REFUSED 1 3 3 1 3 1 2
TREND: Is your opinion of -- Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
Apr 18 Mar 21 Dec 17 Oct 3 Jun 20 Apr 5 Feb 14 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Favorable 48 53 53 58 59 58 59 Unfavorable 45 40 34 37 34 35 35 Hvn't hrd enough 5 5 9 3 5 4 4 REFUSED 2 3 3 2 2 3 2
4. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 50% 30% 60% 55% 49% 52% 46% 82% Unfavorable 31 53 18 29 33 29 37 9 Hvn't hrd enough 18 15 21 14 17 18 16 9 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 - UpState..... UpState Age Age Urban Othr Total NYC Sub 18-44 45+ Favorable 44% 46% 45% 60% 44% 54% 48% Unfavorable 34 35 35 21 39 32 30 Hvn't hrd enough 20 18 18 18 16 14 20 REFUSED 2 2 2 1 1 - 2
TREND: Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Apr 18 Mar 21 Oct 3 Jun 20 Apr 5 Feb 14 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 Favorable 50 56 54 48 48 44 Unfavorable 31 25 20 17 12 9 Hvn't hrd enough 18 17 24 33 38 46 REFUSED 1 2 3 2 1 1
5. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 46% 75% 26% 54% 51% 42% 55% 17% Unfavorable 36 10 51 33 34 37 29 59 Hvn't hrd enough 15 13 19 11 13 18 15 16 REFUSED 3 2 4 2 2 3 2 9 UpState..... UpState Age Age Urban Othr Total NYC Sub 18-44 45+ Favorable 49% 51% 51% 38% 51% 49% 44% Unfavorable 33 26 28 46 35 28 41 Hvn't hrd enough 18 20 19 14 11 22 12 REFUSED 1 3 3 3 3 1 4
TREND: Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Apr 18 Mar 21 Oct 3 Jun 20 Apr 5 Feb 14 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 Favorable 46 49 49 40 47 48 Unfavorable 36 31 28 33 23 24 Hvn't hrd enough 15 18 20 25 27 26 REFUSED 3 3 3 2 2 2
9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 22% 53% 7% 18% 25% 20% 28% 4% Disapprove 73 41 89 78 70 76 69 88 DK/NA 4 7 3 4 5 4 4 7 UpState..... UpState Age Age Urban Othr Total NYC Sub 18-44 45+ Approve 23% 25% 24% 18% 26% 23% 22% Disapprove 75 71 72 75 72 72 74 DK/NA 2 4 4 6 2 5 4
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? * also 82% on 10/2/01
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Apr 18 Mar 21 Dec 17 Jun 20 Apr 5 Nov 14 Mar 21 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 2001* 2008 Approve 22 21 22 24 26 82 21 Disapprove 73 74 73 71 72 15 74 DK/NA 4 4 5 5 3 3 4
17. Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year? (READ OPTIONS)
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Terrorism 9% 17% 4% 8% 11% 7% 10% 5% The war in Iraq 24 12 30 25 24 24 25 18 The economy 44 44 45 47 43 45 42 55 Illegal immigration 7 12 5 4 7 7 7 3 Health care 12 10 13 12 12 13 11 14 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 2 3 1 2 2 3 2 2 DK/NA 2 2 3 1 2 2 2 3 UpState..... UpState Age Age Urban Othr Total NYC Sub 18-44 45+ Terrorism 3% 9% 8% 9% 9% 10% 8% The war in Iraq 24 23 23 26 21 21 26 The economy 43 47 46 42 44 47 42 Illegal immigration 5 7 7 6 8 7 6 Health care 17 12 13 11 13 11 13 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 4 1 2 3 2 2 2 DK/NA 3 1 2 3 2 2 2
TREND: Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year - terrorism, the war in Iraq, the economy, illegal immigration, or health care?
Apr 18 Mar 21 2008 2008 Terrorism 9 9 The war in Iraq 24 22 The economy 44 47 Illegal immigration 7 4 Health care 12 13 SOMETHING ELSE (VOL) 2 2 DK/NA 2 3
18. When you decide how to vote for president, which of the following is the single most important quality you look for in a candidate - Trustworthy, shares your values, a strong leader, competent or inspiring?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Trustworthy 26% 26% 27% 28% 30% 23% 27% 25% Shares your values 16 17 11 19 15 16 16 14 A strong leader 29 35 29 24 27 31 27 33 Competent 25 21 27 24 24 25 26 24 Inspiring 3 1 5 3 3 3 3 4 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 - UpState..... UpState Age Age Urban Othr Total NYC Sub 18-44 45+ Trustworthy 28% 29% 28% 24% 26% 21% 30% Shares your values 14 16 16 15 16 14 16 A strong leader 30 24 26 31 33 36 25 Competent 20 27 25 26 21 25 24 Inspiring 7 2 3 3 3 3 3 DK/NA - 2 2 1 1 1 1
19. Do you think it's the government's responsibility to make sure that everyone in the United States has adequate health-care, or don't you think so?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 70% 46% 88% 67% 62% 77% 64% 88% No 28 53 11 29 35 22 33 10 DK/NA 2 2 1 3 3 1 2 2 UpState..... UpState Age Age Urban Othr Total NYC Sub 18-44 45+ Yes 67% 66% 66% 77% 65% 71% 70% No 32 33 33 21 30 29 27 DK/NA 1 1 1 2 5 1 3
20. Which best describes your family's financial situation - Getting ahead, falling behind or holding steady?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Getting ahead 15% 12% 20% 11% 18% 12% 13% 23% Falling behind 19 15 20 19 18 20 19 15 Holding steady 65 70 59 70 63 66 67 61 DK/NA 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 UpState..... UpState Age Age Urban Othr Total NYC Sub 18-44 45+ Getting ahead 5% 11% 9% 22% 14% 18% 14% Falling behind 26 18 20 16 20 21 19 Holding steady 63 70 69 61 65 60 67 DK/NA 6 1 2 1 1 2 1
TREND: Which best describes your family's financial situation - Getting ahead, falling behind or holding steady?
Apr 18 Mar 21 2008 2008 Getting ahead 15 18% Falling behind 19 17 Holding steady 65 64 DK/NA 1 1
22. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Right thing 26% 58% 9% 23% 31% 22% 32% 6% Wrong thing 69 37 88 71 65 74 62 93 DK/NA 4 5 3 6 4 4 6 0
TREND: Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing? (* also 26 Mar 21, 2008)
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Apr 18 Mar 21 Jun 20 Apr 5 Feb 14 Apr 5 Apr 17 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 Right thing 26 26 30 31 30 31 26 Wrong thing 69 69 65 64 66 64 69 DK/NA 4 5 5 5 5 5 4
23. What should the United States do in Iraq? Withdraw all troops as soon as possible, OR Set a timetable to withdraw troops gradually OR Keep troops in Iraq as long as needed?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Withdraw all troops 23% 6% 36% 18% 20% 26% 18% 35% Set a timetable 50 44 51 54 47 52 49 58 Keep as needed 24 46 10 24 30 18 29 4 DK/NA 4 4 2 4 3 4 4 4
TREND: What should the United States do in Iraq? A) Withdraw all troops as soon as possible, OR B) Set a timetable to withdraw troops gradually OR C) Keep troops in Iraq as long as needed?
Apr 18 Mar 21 2008 2008 Withdraw all troops 23 23% Set a timetable 50 49 Keep as needed 24 25 DK/NA 4 3