New York State (NY) Poll * June 11, 2008 * Obama Gains Among Whites To Bu - Quinnipiac University

Home> Institutes and Centers> Quinnipiac University Polling Institute> New York State (NY)> Release Detail

June 11, 2008 - Obama Gains Among Whites To Bury McCain In New York, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; More Oppose Clinton As Obama Running Mate

Word format Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, the likely Democratic presidential nominee, has pulled even among white voters with Arizona Sen. John McCain, the likely Republican contender, and now tops Sen. McCain 50 - 36 percent in New York State, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
Sen. Obama gets 42 percent of white votes, to 43 percent for Sen. McCain. Black voters back the Democrat 87 - 6 percent. Obama leads 59 - 29 percent among voters under age 45 and 45 - 40 among voters over 45; 45 - 40 percent among men and 53 - 32 percent among women.
This compares to a 47 - 39 percent Obama lead over McCain in an April 18 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, when New York Sen. Hillary Clinton still was in the race. In that survey, white voters backed McCain 48 - 38 percent.
In this latest survey, New York State voters say 48 - 42 percent that Obama should not pick Sen. Clinton as his running mate. Democrats support the idea 53 - 35 percent, while Republicans oppose it 62 - 27 percent and independent voters oppose it 53 - 41 percent.
Clinton on the Democratic ticket would help Obama, voters say 46 - 27 percent. Republicans split 34 - 33 percent, while Democrats say 61 - 19 percent and independent voters say 37 - 33 percent that Clinton helps.
"Our favorite daughter, Sen. Hillary Clinton, won't be on top of the ballot, but New York is still solidly blue. Sen. Barack Obama wins in a walk. He pulls even with Sen. John McCain among white voters. And he mesmerizes the young. In the 18-to-44 age bracket, he blows McCain away," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
New York State voters give Obama a 55 - 28 percent favorability, compared to 44 - 38 percent for McCain.
Obama cares about their needs and problems voters say 62 - 28 percent. They split on McCain, with 46 percent saying he doesn't care and 44 percent saying he does.
McCain's age will not affect their vote, 70 percent say, while 25 percent say it makes them less likely to vote for the Republican.
Obama's race won't affect their vote, 85 percent say, while 10 percent say it makes them more likely to vote for the Democrat.
"Some Republicans call Obama 'elitist,' but New Yorkers find him sympathetic. McCain, with a lifetime in government - first the Navy, then Congress - comes up narrowly negative on that measure," Carroll said.
"You have to be careful when you ask about prejudices. Do people tell the truth? Still, New Yorkers tell us, heavily, they're not prejudiced because of McCain's age, and, overwhelmingly, they're not prejudiced because of Obama's race."
The economy is the single most important issue in their presidential vote, 46 percent of voters say, while 24 percent list the war in Iraq and 12 percent list health care.
In fact, 76 percent of New York State voters describe the state's economy as "not so good" or "poor." That includes 84 percent of upstate voters, 66 percent of New York City voters and 75 percent of suburban voters. The economy will get worse in the next year, 46 percent of voters say, while 14 percent say it will get better and 36 percent say it will stay the same.
"No change. On issues, the old slogan holds: It's the economy, stupid," Carroll said. Bush Approval
New York State voters disapprove 76 - 20 percent of the job President George W. Bush is doing. Even Republicans split 47 - 47 percent. This ties the findings in a March 27 Connecticut survey as the lowest mark for President Bush in any Quinnipiac University poll since he became President.
From June 3 - 8, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,388 New York State voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research.
For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
1. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama 50% 17% 74% 48% 45% 53% 42% 87% McCain 36 73 14 34 40 32 43 6 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 2 3 2 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 2 4 5 5 4 4 1 DK/NA 8 7 6 11 8 9 8 6 UpState..... UpState Age Age Urban Othr Total NYC Sub 18-44 45+ Obama 44% 40% 40% 65% 43% 59% 45% McCain 35 42 40 25 43 29 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 4 3 3 1 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 7 6 3 4 4 5 DK/NA 14 9 10 6 8 5 9
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Jun 11 Apr 18 Mar 21 Oct 3 Jun 20 Apr 5 Feb 14 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 Obama 50 47 49 47 48 47 46 McCain 36 39 38 39 33 36 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 3 3 4 4 3 3 DK/NA 8 9 8 8 12 12 14
2. Is your opinion of -- Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 53% 28% 77% 44% 41% 64% 51% 61% Unfavorable 40 62 18 48 52 29 43 30 Hvn't hrd enough 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 2 REFUSED 3 5 2 4 3 4 2 7 UpState..... UpState Age Age Urban Othr Total NYC Sub 18-44 45+ Favorable 58% 51% 52% 58% 49% 50% 56% Unfavorable 31 44 41 33 47 41 39 Hvn't hrd enough 8 4 5 3 2 5 3 REFUSED 3 2 2 6 2 4 2
TREND: Is your opinion of -- Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
Jun 11 Apr 18 Mar 21 Dec 17 Oct 3 Jun 20 Apr 5 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 Favorable 53 48 53 53 58 59 58 Unfavorable 40 45 40 34 37 34 35 Hvn't hrd enough 4 5 5 9 3 5 4 REFUSED 3 2 3 3 2 2 3
3. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 55% 30% 73% 57% 56% 54% 47% 84% Unfavorable 28 49 14 24 31 26 34 2 Hvn't hrd enough 14 20 10 16 11 17 16 12 REFUSED 3 1 3 3 2 3 3 2 UpState..... UpState Age Age Urban Othr Total NYC Sub 18-44 45+ Favorable 56% 46% 47% 69% 48% 66% 49% Unfavorable 24 35 32 18 35 22 31 Hvn't hrd enough 19 18 18 10 15 9 18 REFUSED 2 2 2 3 2 2 2
TREND: Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Jun 11 Apr 18 Mar 21 Oct 3 Jun 20 Apr 5 Feb 14 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 Favorable 55 50 56 54 48 48 44 Unfavorable 28 31 25 20 17 12 9 Hvn't hrd enough 14 18 17 24 33 38 46 REFUSED 3 1 2 3 2 1 1
4. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 44% 76% 24% 46% 52% 37% 49% 25% Unfavorable 38 11 58 34 33 42 34 51 Hvn't hrd enough 15 12 16 16 13 17 13 20 REFUSED 3 1 2 3 3 3 3 3 UpState..... UpState Age Age Urban Othr Total NYC Sub 18-44 45+ Favorable 43% 44% 44% 38% 53% 42% 46% Unfavorable 35 39 38 43 30 39 38 Hvn't hrd enough 18 14 15 15 15 17 13 REFUSED 4 2 3 3 3 1 3
TREND: Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Jun 11 Apr 18 Mar 21 Oct 3 Jun 20 Apr 5 Feb 14 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 Favorable 44 46 49 49 40 47 48 Unfavorable 38 36 31 28 33 23 24 Hvn't hrd enough 15 15 18 20 25 27 26 REFUSED 3 3 3 3 2 2 2
5. Do you think that Barack Obama should choose Hillary Clinton to be his vice- presidential running mate or not?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 42% 27% 53% 41% 32% 51% 38% 58% No 48 62 35 53 57 39 51 33 DK/NA 11 11 12 6 11 10 12 9 UpState..... UpState Age Age Urban Othr Total NYC Sub 18-44 45+ Yes 36% 40% 39% 50% 34% 54% 34% No 46 53 52 42 49 40 53 DK/NA 18 7 9 7 17 6 13
6. Do you think having Hillary Clinton on the Democratic ticket for vice-president would help or hurt Obama's chances of winning the presidential election, or wouldn't it make a difference?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Help 46% 34% 61% 37% 38% 53% 45% 46% Hurt 27 33 19 33 33 21 31 16 Wldnt make a diff 21 28 15 23 22 21 17 30 DK/NA 6 6 5 7 7 4 7 7 UpState..... UpState Age Age Urban Othr Total NYC Sub 18-44 45+ Help 42% 47% 46% 53% 35% 46% 46% Hurt 21 33 31 20 31 26 27 Wldnt make a diff 35 14 18 20 28 25 19 DK/NA 2 6 5 6 5 4 7
8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Hillary Clinton is handling her job as United States Senator?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 66% 43% 87% 63% 58% 73% 62% 80% Disapprove 28 51 9 32 37 21 33 8 DK/NA 5 6 4 5 5 5 5 11 UpState..... UpState Age Age Urban Othr Total NYC Sub 18-44 45+ Approve 61% 60% 60% 76% 63% 71% 63% Disapprove 32 36 35 18 32 25 31 DK/NA 7 5 5 5 6 3 6
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Hillary Clinton is handling her job as United States Senator?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Jun 11 Apr 17 Mar 24 Dec 12 Oct 2 Dec 14 Feb 14 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 2006 2001 Approve 66 62 64 64 65 72 38 Disapprove 28 31 29 29 30 23 30 DK/NA 5 8 7 7 5 5 33
10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 20% 47% 6% 13% 21% 19% 23% 12% Disapprove 76 47 92 81 74 78 74 83 DK/NA 4 6 2 7 6 3 4 5 UpState..... UpState Age Age Urban Othr Total NYC Sub 18-44 45+ Approve 17% 21% 20% 17% 23% 19% 21% Disapprove 78 74 75 78 75 79 74 DK/NA 5 5 5 5 2 3 5
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? * also 82% on 10/2/01
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Jun 11 Apr 18 Mar 21 Dec 17 Jun 20 Nov 14 Jun 11 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 2001 * 2008 Approve 20 22 21 22 24 82 20 Disapprove 76 73 74 73 71 15 76 DK/NA 4 4 4 5 5 3 4
19. Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year? (READ OPTIONS)
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Terrorism 8% 17% 4% 7% 9% 8% 9% 5% The war in Iraq 24 19 28 20 23 24 23 25 The economy 46 44 47 48 47 45 47 41 Illegal immigration 5 9 1 6 7 4 6 2 Health care 12 7 14 13 9 15 10 20 SOMETHING ELSE (VOL) 3 3 3 3 4 2 3 3 DK/NA 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 UpState..... UpState Age Age Urban Othr Total NYC Sub 18-44 45+ Terrorism 7% 7% 7% 9% 9% 8% 9% The war in Iraq 18 23 22 28 21 21 25 The economy 54 47 48 46 40 49 43 Illegal immigration 2 7 6 4 7 4 6 Health care 14 12 12 9 16 13 11 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 2 3 2 3 5 2 4 DK/NA 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
TREND: Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year - terrorism, the war in Iraq, the economy, illegal immigration, or health care?
Jun 11 Apr 18 Mar 21 2008 2008 2008 Terrorism 8 9 9 The war in Iraq 24 24 22 The economy 46 44 47 Illegal immigration 5 7 4 Health care 12 12 13 SOMETHING ELSE (VOL) 3 2 2 DK/NA 2 2 3
20. Would you say that Barack Obama cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 62% 44% 79% 59% 59% 64% 56% 91% No 28 47 11 29 31 24 33 1 DK/NA 10 9 10 12 9 11 11 8 UpState..... UpState Age Age Urban Othr Total NYC Sub 18-44 45+ Yes 62% 53% 54% 76% 55% 72% 57% No 29 34 33 17 35 22 30 DK/NA 10 14 13 7 11 6 13
21. Would you say that John McCain cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 44% 69% 28% 44% 50% 39% 50% 25% No 46 22 64 42 41 49 39 65 DK/NA 10 8 8 14 9 12 11 10 UpState..... UpState Age Age Urban Othr Total NYC Sub 18-44 45+ Yes 47% 47% 47% 39% 45% 44% 44% No 47 40 42 51 46 49 44 DK/NA 6 13 11 10 9 7 12
22. If elected, John McCain would be the first person to become President at age 72 . Does that make you more likely to vote for McCain, less likely to vote for McCain, or doesn't it make a difference?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk More likely 4% 5% 1% 4% 6% 2% 4% - Less likely 25 12 36 25 24 27 22 42 Doesn't make diff 70 83 62 71 70 71 73 58 DK/NA - - - - - 1 - - UpState..... UpState Age Age Urban Othr Total NYC Sub 18-44 45+ More likely 3% 5% 5% 2% 4% 3% 4% Less likely 40 22 26 29 19 27 25 Doesn't make diff 57 72 69 69 77 70 70 DK/NA - 1 1 1 - - 1
23. If elected, Barack Obama would be the first African-American President. Does that make you more likely to vote for Obama, less likely to vote for Obama, or doesn't it make a difference?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk More likely 10% 10% 14% 5% 8% 11% 4% 28% Less likely 3 6 2 2 4 3 4 - Doesn't make diff 85 82 83 92 86 85 90 69 DK/NA 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 UpState..... UpState Age Age Urban Othr Total NYC Sub 18-44 45+ More likely 10% 4% 5% 18% 5% 13% 8% Less likely 6 6 6 1 2 1 5 Doesn't make diff 82 90 88 79 90 85 86 DK/NA 2 1 1 2 2 1 2
24. Do you think it's the government's responsibility to make sure that everyone in the United States has adequate health care, or don't you think so?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 74% 54% 90% 71% 65% 81% 69% 87% No 23 42 8 25 32 15 27 12 DK/NA 3 4 2 4 2 3 3 1 UpState..... UpState Age Age Urban Othr Total NYC Sub 18-44 45+ Yes 78% 69% 71% 79% 74% 78% 71% No 18 28 27 18 23 20 25 DK/NA 4 3 3 3 3 1 4
TREND: Do you think it's the government's responsibility to make sure that everyone in the United States has adequate health care, or don't you think so?
Jun 11 Apr 18 2008 2008 Yes 74 70 No 23 28 DK/NA 3 2
25. Which best describes your family's financial situation - Getting ahead, falling behind or holding steady?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Getting ahead 15% 19% 16% 11% 18% 14% 16% 10% Falling behind 22 15 27 23 19 25 22 24 Holding steady 62 64 57 65 63 60 62 66 DK/NA 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 - UpState..... UpState Age Age Urban Othr Total NYC Sub 18-44 45+ Getting ahead 9% 14% 13% 17% 17% 19% 13% Falling behind 22 27 26 19 19 23 22 Holding steady 68 58 60 63 63 58 64 DK/NA - 1 1 1 1 1 1
TREND: Which best describes your family's financial situation - Getting ahead, falling behind or holding steady?
Jun 11 Apr 17 Mar 21 2008 2008 2008 Getting ahead 15 15 18 Falling behind 22 19 17 Holding steady 62 65 64 DK/NA 1 1 1
28. As you think about your own financial situation, which of the following economic issues worries you the most right now -- a) Declining retirement fund values b) Declining real estate values c) Rising health care costs d) Rising gasoline prices e) Rising food prices
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Retirement funds 10% 10% 11% 11% 9% 11% 10% 21% Real estate values 9 12 8 8 11 7 9 10 Health care costs 18 12 23 17 13 22 17 20 Gasoline prices 41 45 35 44 47 37 45 29 Food prices 18 17 21 15 17 19 16 17 DK/NA 4 4 3 5 3 4 4 3 UpState..... UpState Age Age Urban Othr Total NYC Sub 18-44 45+ Retirement funds 11% 8% 9% 11% 12% 7% 13% Real estate values 2 4 4 11 16 11 7 Health care costs 17 14 15 24 15 16 19 Gasoline prices 59 54 55 24 42 43 41 Food prices 10 16 15 27 9 21 16 DK/NA 2 3 3 3 5 2 4
29. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Right thing 24% 56% 5% 22% 31% 19% 29% 6% Wrong thing 71 38 93 72 66 75 66 90 DK/NA 5 6 2 6 3 6 5 4 UpState..... UpState Age Age Urban Othr Total NYC Sub 18-44 45+ Right thing 23% 29% 28% 17% 29% 22% 26% Wrong thing 74 66 67 79 67 74 69 DK/NA 3 6 5 4 4 4 5
TREND: Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
Jun 11 Apr 18 Mar 21 Jun 20 Apr 5 Feb 14 Oct 5 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 2006 Right thing 24 26 26 30 31 30 30 Wrong thing 71 69 69 65 64 66 63 DK/NA 5 4 5 5 5 5 7
30. What should the United States do in Iraq? a) Withdraw all troops as soon as possible, OR b) Set a timetable to withdraw troops gradually OR c) Keep troops in Iraq as long as needed?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Withdraw all troops 22% 14% 29% 20% 21% 24% 19% 36% Set a timetable 52 36 62 53 47 56 52 48 Keep troops as needed 23 47 7 22 29 17 26 10 DK/NA 3 3 2 4 3 3 3 6 UpState..... UpState Age Age Urban Othr Total NYC Sub 18-44 45+ Withdraw all troops 20% 21% 21% 27% 18% 22% 22% Set a timetable 58 50 52 51 52 55 50 Keep troops as needed 20 25 24 18 28 21 24 DK/NA 2 4 3 3 3 2 4
TREND: What should the United States do in Iraq? a) Withdraw all troops as soon as possible, OR b) Set a timetable to withdraw troops gradually OR c) Keep troops in Iraq as long as needed?
Jun 11 Apr 18 Mar 21 2008 2008 2008 Withdraw all troops 22 23 23 Set a timetable 52 50 49 Keep troops as needed 23 24 25 DK/NA 3 4 3