New York State (NY) Poll * January 14, 2009 * Kennedy Fades As New Yorkers B - Quinnipiac University

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January 14, 2009 - Kennedy Fades As New Yorkers Back Cuomo For Senate, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; More Voters Don't Think Kennedy Is Qualified

Word format New York State voters have cooled on Caroline Kennedy and more voters now prefer State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo 31 - 24 percent for Hillary Clinton's U.S. Senate seat, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. U.S. Rep. Carolyn Maloney gets 6 percent, with 5 percent for U.S. Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand, 2 percent for U.S. Rep. Steve Israel, 18 percent for someone else and 14 percent undecided.
Still, voters say 38 - 33 percent that Gov. David Paterson will appoint Ms. Kennedy to the U.S. Senate.
Cuomo leads Kennedy 31 - 20 percent among upstate voters and 36 - 22 percent in the suburbs, while Kennedy gets 31 percent of New York City voters to Cuomo's 29 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Men back Cuomo 32 - 23 percent while women back him 31 - 25 percent.
New York State voters say 48 - 37 percent that Kennedy is not qualified to be a U.S. Senator and 40 - 37 percent that she would not be a good Senator. Democrats say 47 - 35 percent that she is qualified, while Republicans say 65 - 24 percent that she is not qualified. Independent voters say 51 - 34 percent that she is not qualified.
"Caroline Kennedy's stumbling start in her first interviews may have cost her the lead," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "It's close, but Attorney General Andrew Cuomo is No. 1 among voters in the race for Hillary Clinton's Senate seat."
"There's only one New Yorker whose opinion counts, of course, Gov. David Paterson. And a plurality of the rest of us still think that Paterson will pick Kennedy. So far, at least, Reps. Gillibrand, Maloney and Israel have no more than local recognition. All three get just a smattering of support."
New York State voters approve 69 - 16 percent of the job Cuomo is doing, compared to a 72 - 14 percent approval rating December 23, 2008. Cuomo gets a 57 - 10 percent favorability rating, with 32 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.
Kennedy gets a 39 - 29 percent favorability, with 31 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion. This compares to a 46 - 17 percent favorability December 23.
By a 48 - 35 percent margin, New York State voters say they were not surprised by Kennedy's widely reported verbal tics, such as the use of 'you know,' in conversation. And by a 58 - 32 percent margin, voters were not surprised that news stories focused on these tics.
"You know, New Yorkers weren't particularly surprised at Kennedy's verbal tics. And they sort of expected the media to, you know, emphasize them," Carroll said.
New York State voters approve 68 - 26 percent of the way Hillary Clinton handled her job as U.S. Senator. Democrats approve 89 - 8 percent, as do independent voters, 60 - 29 percent, while Republicans disapprove 54 - 39 percent.
U.S. Sen. Charles Schumer gets a 57 - 24 percent approval rating.
"As she gets ready to be Secretary of State, Clinton gets high marks from New Yorkers on how she did her Senate job," Carroll said.
From January 8 - 12, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,664 New York State registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 57% 42% 71% 52% 55% 59% Disapprove 24 41 10 27 29 19 DK/NA 19 17 19 20 16 22 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 50% 54% 53% 63% 56% Disapprove 27 25 25 18 30 DK/NA 23 21 22 20 14
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator? (* also 69% on 10/02/01)
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Jan 14 Dec 23 Aug 6 Jun 12 Apr 17 Dec 8 Apr 15 2009 2008 2008 2008 2008 2004* 1999 Approve 57 63 61 66 65 69 51 Disapprove 24 22 23 21 18 16 22 DK/NA 19 15 16 14 17 15 28
3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Hillary Clinton handled her job as United States Senator?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 68% 39% 89% 60% 61% 73% Disapprove 26 54 8 29 31 22 DK/NA 6 7 3 11 8 5 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 59% 63% 62% 78% 63% Disapprove 34 30 31 18 29 DK/NA 7 7 7 4 9
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Hillary Clinton is handling her job as United States Senator? (* handled her job)
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Jan 14 Dec 23 Aug 6 Jun 12 Apr 17 Dec 14 Feb 14 2009* 2008 2008 2008 2008 2006 2001 Approve 68 70 66 66 62 72 38 Disapprove 26 25 29 28 31 23 30 DK/NA 6 5 5 5 8 5 33
7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Andrew Cuomo is handling his job as State Attorney General?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 69% 65% 73% 69% 68% 70% Disapprove 16 20 12 16 17 14 DK/NA 15 16 15 15 15 16 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 70% 67% 68% 70% 72% Disapprove 11 18 16 15 15 DK/NA 20 15 16 15 14
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Andrew Cuomo is handling his job as State Attorney General?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Jan 14 Dec 23 Aug 6 Jun 12 Apr 17 Dec 23 Feb 13 2009 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2007 Approve 69 72 68 69 65 72 42 Disapprove 16 14 13 15 13 14 16 DK/NA 15 14 19 17 21 14 42
10. As you may know, Senator Hillary Clinton has been nominated to be Secretary of State and Governor Paterson will pick her replacement in the Senate. Who do you think Governor Paterson should pick to replace Hillary Clinton in the United States Senate - Caroline Kennedy, Andrew Cuomo, Kirsten Gillibrand, Carolyn Maloney, Steve Israel or Someone else?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Kennedy 24% 16% 31% 21% 23% 25% Cuomo 31 32 32 30 32 31 Gillibrand 5 6 4 6 5 5 Maloney 6 3 6 8 4 7 Israel 2 2 1 3 3 1 Someone else 18 26 11 21 21 15 DK/NA 14 15 15 10 12 16 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Kennedy 22% 20% 20% 31% 22% Cuomo 30 32 31 29 36 Gillibrand 5 11 10 2 1 Maloney 2 2 2 10 5 Israel - 1 - 1 6 Someone else 28 20 22 13 17 DK/NA 14 15 14 15 12
TREND: As you may know, Senator Hillary Clinton has been nominated to be Secretary of State and Governor Paterson will pick her replacement in the Senate. Who do you think Governor Paterson should pick to replace Hillary Clinton in the United States Senate - Caroline Kennedy, Andrew Cuomo, Kirsten Gillibrand, Carolyn Maloney, Steve Israel or someone else? (* na = Not Asked)
Jan 14 Dec 23 2009 2008* Kennedy 24 33 Cuomo 31 29 Gillibrand 5 4 Maloney 6 na Israel 2 na Someone else 18 24 DK/NA 14 10
11. Is your opinion of Andrew Cuomo favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 57% 53% 61% 55% 57% 56% Unfavorable 10 14 8 9 12 8 Hvn't hrd enough 32 31 30 34 28 35 REFUSED 2 2 2 3 3 1 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Favorable 49% 54% 53% 56% 65% Unfavorable 5 12 10 9 10 Hvn't hrd enough 45 32 35 32 23 REFUSED 1 2 2 2 2
TREND: Is your opinion of Andrew Cuomo favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Jan 14 Dec 23 2009 2008 Favorable 57 55 Unfavorable 10 11 Hvn't hrd enough 32 32 REFUSED 2 2
12. Is your opinion of Caroline Kennedy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 39% 24% 53% 33% 35% 42% Unfavorable 29 46 16 31 34 25 Hvn't hrd enough 31 29 29 34 29 32 REFUSED 2 2 2 1 2 1 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Favorable 33% 31% 31% 49% 38% Unfavorable 41 33 35 18 33 Hvn't hrd enough 24 35 32 31 27 REFUSED 2 2 2 2 1
TREND: Is your opinion of Caroline Kennedy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
Jan 14 Dec 23 2009 2008 Favorable 39 46 Unfavorable 29 17 Hvn't hrd enough 31 36 REFUSED 2 1
13. Do you think Caroline Kennedy would be a good United States Senator or not?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 37% 24% 50% 31% 34% 40% No 40 55 27 45 45 37 DK/NA 22 21 23 24 22 23 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Yes 34% 31% 32% 46% 34% No 48 44 45 32 46 DK/NA 17 25 23 22 21
TREND: Do you think Caroline Kennedy would be a good United States Senator or not?
Jan 14 Dec 23 2009 2008 Yes 37 46 No 40 30 DK/NA 22 24
14. Do you think Caroline Kennedy is qualified to be a United States Senator or not?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 37% 24% 47% 34% 35% 38% No 48 65 35 51 51 45 DK/NA 15 11 18 15 14 17 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Yes 31% 31% 31% 45% 33% No 51 53 53 38 55 DK/NA 18 15 16 17 12
TREND: Do you think Caroline Kennedy is qualified to be a United States Senator or not?
Jan 14 Dec 23 2009 2008 Yes 37 40 No 48 41 DK/NA 15 19
15. Do you think Governor Paterson will pick Caroline Kennedy to replace Hillary Clinton in the Senate or not?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 38% 47% 36% 36% 43% 35% No 33 33 30 36 31 34 DK/NA 29 21 34 28 26 31 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Yes 32% 36% 35% 38% 46% No 34 37 36 32 27 DK/NA 34 27 29 30 27
TREND: Do you think Governor Paterson will pick Caroline Kennedy to replace Hillary Clinton in the Senate or not?
Jan 14 Dec 23 2009 2008 Yes 38 48 No 33 25 DK/NA 29 27
16. Stories about Caroline Kennedy emphasized her repeated use of 'you know' in answers. Were you surprised at her use of 'you know'?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 35% 42% 33% 35% 34% 37% No 48 42 50 49 49 47 DK/NA 17 16 17 16 17 16 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Yes 33% 36% 35% 31% 41% No 42 47 46 52 46 DK/NA 25 17 19 17 12
17. Were you surprised that news stories focused on this?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 32% 30% 33% 32% 30% 33% No 58 59 58 59 59 58 DK/NA 10 11 9 9 10 9 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Yes 36% 32% 33% 31% 31% No 51 60 58 57 61 DK/NA 13 8 9 11 8