New York State (NY) Poll * May 13, 2009 * New York Gov. Paterson Gets Lo - Quinnipiac University

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May 13, 2009 - New York Gov. Paterson Gets Low Scores From All Races, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Giuliani Narrows Gap With Cuomo In Governor's Race

Word format New York Gov. David Paterson's approval rating is hovering at historic lows, with a disapproval of 61 - 28 percent among all voters, including 49 - 37 percent among black voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
In a Democratic primary for the 2010 Governor's race, Attorney General Andrew Cuomo tops Gov. Paterson 62 - 17 percent, including 48 - 26 percent among blacks, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh- pe-ack) University poll of more than 2,800 New York State voters finds.
Paterson's 61 - 28 percent disapproval compares to a 60 - 28 percent disapproval April 6, the lowest ever for a New York State Governor.
In the latest survey, white voters disapprove 66 - 24 percent and Hispanic voters disapprove 47 - 43 percent.
In contrast, voters approve 68 - 12 percent of the job Attorney General Cuomo is doing, with approval ratings of 78 - 8 percent among black voters, 68 - 12 percent among white voters and 63 - 12 percent among Hispanics. Even Republicans approve 55 - 22 percent.
"Black New Yorkers give the black Governor a negative job approval rating, not as bad as his overall rating but still on the downside," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"With support in every demographic sub-group, including a 22-point lead among black voters, Attorney General Andrew Cuomo trounces Gov. Paterson in a Democratic primary. Paterson has time to turn things around before the 2010 election, of course, but there's not a hint of good news for him in this poll."
In an early look at the 2010 Governor's race, former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani leads Paterson 54 - 32 percent. Giuliani leads 86 - 6 percent among Republicans and 60 - 21 percent among independent voters, while Democrats back Paterson 56 - 30 percent. Giuliani leads 62 - 25 percent among white voters and 51 - 42 percent among Hispanics, while black voters back Paterson 64 - 18 percent.
Cuomo-Giuliani
Cuomo leads Giuliani 47 - 41 percent in a head-to-head matchup, down from a 53 - 36 percent lead April 6. Independent voters have shifted from 49 - 38 percent for Cuomo April 8 to 44 - 40 percent for Giuliani today. In this latest survey, Giuliani leads 80 - 9 percent among Republicans while Democrats back Cuomo 78 - 16 percent. Cuomo leads 76 - 13 percent among black voters and 52 - 40 percent among Hispanics, as white voters go to Giuliani 47 - 42 percent.
"If the Republicans nominate Mayor Giuliani, he beats Paterson by a lot. Cuomo beats Giuliani but that lead is shrinking as independent voters shift to the Republican. That's a trend to watch," Carroll said.
New York State voters say 64 - 21 percent, including 46 - 33 percent among black voters, that Paterson does not deserve to be reelected.
A total of 33 percent of voters say it is "very likely" or "somewhat likely" that Paterson will run next year for a full four-year term as Governor, while 62 percent say it is "not too likely" or "not likely at all."
If Paterson runs, it will be bad for other Democrats running in the state, voters say 48 - 29 percent. Black voters split 40 - 39 percent on this question.
"A lot of politicians think that the torrent of bad news will persuade Paterson not to run. Voters think so, too," Carroll said.
"If the Governor does what he says he will, and runs in 2010, voters think he'll be bad news for other Democrats on the ballot."
From May 5 - 11, Quinnipiac University surveyed 2,828 New York State registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 1.8 percentage points. The survey includes 1,238 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for governor were being held today and the candidates were David Paterson and Andrew Cuomo, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED DEMS................ Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Paterson 17% 17% 18% 12% 26% Cuomo 62 60 64 70 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 18 20 17 17 23
TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for governor were being held today and the candidates were David Paterson and Andrew Cuomo, for whom would you vote?
May 13 Apr 06 Feb 17 2009 2009 2009 Paterson 17 18 23 Cuomo 62 61 55 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 3 1 DK/NA 18 17 20
2. If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were David Paterson the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Paterson 32% 6% 56% 21% 32% 32% 25% 64% 42% Giuliani 54 86 30 60 55 53 62 18 51 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 2 5 3 3 3 3 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 4 3 3 3 3 5 5 DK/NA 8 5 7 10 6 10 8 10 3 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Paterson 32% 24% 25% 44% 25% Giuliani 52 60 58 45 60 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 3 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 3 3 4 DK/NA 10 10 10 5 9
TREND: If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were David Paterson the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
May 13 Apr 06 Feb 17 2009 2009 2009 Paterson 32 32 43 Giuliani 54 53 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 2 DK/NA 8 9 10
3. If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were Andrew Cuomo the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Cuomo 47% 9% 78% 40% 44% 50% 42% 76% 52% Giuliani 41 80 16 44 45 38 47 13 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 1 1 1 2 4 DK/NA 9 9 5 13 8 11 9 8 4 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Cuomo 48% 41% 42% 57% 41% Giuliani 37 46 44 34 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 2 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 1 1 - DK/NA 9 11 10 7 11
TREND: If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were Andrew Cuomo the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
May 13 Apr 06 Feb 17 2009 2009 2009 Cuomo 47 53 51 Giuliani 41 36 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 2 DK/NA 9 9 9
4. Is your opinion of Andrew Cuomo favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Favorable 51% 32% 66% 49% 48% 53% 48% 70% 45% Unfavorable 13 24 4 11 18 8 15 2 10 Hvn't hrd enough 34 42 28 37 31 37 35 28 43 REFUSED 2 2 1 3 2 2 2 - 1 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Favorable 55% 44% 46% 57% 51% Unfavorable 8 15 14 9 17 Hvn't hrd enough 37 39 39 32 29 REFUSED - 2 2 2 3
TREND: Is your opinion of Andrew Cuomo favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
May 13 Apr 06 Feb 17 Jan 14 Dec 23 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 Favorable 51 63 63 57 55 Unfavorable 13 17 15 10 11 Hvn't hrd enough 34 18 20 32 32 REFUSED 2 2 2 2 2
5. Is your opinion of David Paterson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Favorable 24% 17% 33% 20% 26% 22% 20% 38% 35% Unfavorable 55 66 44 57 56 54 60 36 39 Hvn't hrd enough 18 15 20 19 15 21 16 22 25 REFUSED 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 - UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Favorable 27% 22% 22% 29% 21% Unfavorable 54 60 59 47 58 Hvn't hrd enough 18 16 16 21 18 REFUSED 1 3 3 3 3
TREND: Is your opinion of David Paterson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
May 13 Apr 06 Feb 17 Jan 26 2009 2009 2009 2009 Favorable 24 27 41 48 Unfavorable 55 55 35 25 Hvn't hrd enough 18 14 20 24 REFUSED 3 4 4 3
6. Is your opinion of Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Favorable 56% 85% 35% 62% 57% 55% 62% 23% 53% Unfavorable 32 5 52 26 32 32 25 68 34 Hvn't hrd enough 10 9 10 10 9 10 11 8 9 REFUSED 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 1 3 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Favorable 61% 58% 58% 48% 62% Unfavorable 19 23 23 45 30 Hvn't hrd enough 18 16 17 4 6 REFUSED 1 2 2 2 2
TREND: Is your opinion of - Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?(*High also 56% Feb 2009 and Feb 2007 )
FAVORABLE..... High Low May 13 Apr 06 Feb 17 Dec 17 Oct 3 May 13 Dec 17 2009 2009 2009 2007 2007 2009* 2007 Favorable 56 55 56 41 55 56 41 Unfavorable 32 35 35 40 38 32 40 Hvn't hrd enough 10 7 7 16 5 10 16 REFUSED 2 4 2 3 2 2 3
7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way David Paterson is handling his job as Governor?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Approve 28% 20% 35% 27% 30% 26% 24% 37% 43% Disapprove 61 73 54 62 61 61 66 49 47 DK/NA 10 7 11 11 8 12 10 14 10 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 27% 26% 26% 33% 26% Disapprove 65 65 65 56 62 DK/NA 7 9 9 11 12
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way David Paterson is handling his job as Governor? (*Low also 28% Apr 2009)
APPROVE....... High Low May 13 Apr 06 Feb 17 Jan 26 Jan 15 Aug 06 May 13 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 2009* Approve 28 28 45 50 53 64 28 Disapprove 61 60 41 30 25 14 61 DK/NA 10 13 14 20 22 22 10
8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Andrew Cuomo is handling his job as State Attorney General?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Approve 68% 55% 79% 69% 68% 68% 68% 78% 63% Disapprove 12 22 5 10 15 8 12 8 12 DK/NA 20 22 16 21 17 23 20 14 25 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 68% 67% 67% 69% 70% Disapprove 8 12 11 12 13 DK/NA 24 21 22 20 17
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Andrew Cuomo is handling his job as State Attorney General?
APPROVE....... High Low May 13 Apr 06 Feb 17 Jan 14 Dec 23 Feb 17 Feb 13 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 2009 2007 Approve 68 75 76 69 72 76 42 Disapprove 12 14 11 16 14 11 16 DK/NA 20 11 13 15 14 13 42
9. Looking ahead to the 2010 election for governor, do you feel that David Paterson deserves to be elected to a full 4-year term, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be elected to a full 4-year term?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Yes/Deserves 21% 12% 28% 19% 22% 20% 17% 33% 31% No/Does not 64 75 56 67 64 64 69 46 50 DK/NA 15 14 16 14 13 16 13 21 19 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Yes/Deserves 22% 19% 20% 24% 18% No/Does not 64 67 67 59 68 DK/NA 14 14 14 17 15
TREND: Looking ahead to the 2010 election for governor, do you feel that David Paterson deserves to be elected to a full 4-year term, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be elected to a full 4-year term?
May 13 Apr 06 2009 2009 Yes/Deserves 21 22 No/Does Not 64 63 DK/NA 15 16
10. Governor Paterson says he'll run for governor in 2010. How likely do you think it is that he would win - very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not likely at all?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Very likely 5% 4% 7% 5% 5% 6% 3% 17% 9% Smwht likely 28 24 34 25 26 30 26 30 32 Not too likely 33 29 34 37 32 34 35 28 32 Not likely at all 29 39 21 30 33 26 32 18 23 DK/NA 4 3 4 3 4 5 4 6 4 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Very likely 10% 3% 4% 7% 5% Smwht likely 25 27 27 31 25 Not too likely 32 32 32 32 37 Not likely at all 28 33 32 25 30 DK/NA 5 5 5 5 3
11. Do you think Governor Paterson running for governor in 2010 would be good or bad for other Democrats running for election in New York State?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Good 29% 24% 37% 25% 28% 30% 26% 40% 40% Bad 48 53 45 50 52 46 52 39 39 DK/NA 22 23 18 25 20 24 22 21 22 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Good 33% 25% 26% 35% 26% Bad 49 52 51 44 49 DK/NA 18 23 22 21 25
12. Democrats took control of the state senate this year for the first time in decades. Would you like to see them continue control in 2010?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Yes 56% 10% 93% 46% 50% 61% 46% 92% 75% No 35 82 4 37 42 29 43 6 16 DK/NA 9 8 4 17 8 10 11 2 9 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Yes 52% 47% 48% 71% 47% No 35 41 40 21 45 DK/NA 13 12 12 7 7