New York State (NY) Poll * June 24, 2009 * New York Governor's Disapprova - Quinnipiac University

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June 24, 2009 - New York Governor's Disapproval Bottoms Out At 2 - 1, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Cuomo Holds 3 - 1 Lead In Dem Primary Race For Gov.

Word format New York Gov. David Paterson's approval rating, in free fall for a year, may have bottomed out with voters disapproving 61 - 28 percent of the job he's doing, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
This is the exact same disapproval rating in a May 13 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN- uh-pe-ack) University.
In this latest poll, disapproval of Gov. Paterson ranges from 76 - 16 percent among Republicans to 64 - 24 percent among independent voters to 52 - 36 percent among Democrats. Black voters approve 52 - 35 percent while white voters disapprove 66 - 23 percent. Hispanic voters disapprove 54 - 33 percent.
In the 2010 Democratic primary for Governor, Attorney General Andrew Cuomo tops Paterson 57 - 20 percent, with 20 percent undecided.
Turning to the general election, former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani leads Paterson 52 - 34 percent, including 90 - 3 percent among Republicans and 57 - 25 percent among independent voters. Paterson leads 60 - 28 percent among Democrats.
Cuomo tops Giuliani 51 - 39 percent, as independent voters switch to 45 - 40 percent for the Democrat. Republicans stay with Giuliani 78 - 12 percent. Democrats back Cuomo 79 - 16 percent, 19 percentage points greater than their support for Paterson.
"Gov. David Paterson's job approval holds negative among every demographic group except his fellow black New Yorkers. The only good news is that, like the economy, Paterson may have hit bottom, with nowhere to go but up," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
New York State voters say 64 - 22 percent that Paterson does not deserve to be elected to a full four-year term, virtually unchanged from April and May Quinnipiac University polls.
Voters approve 73 - 12 percent of the job Cuomo is doing. Even Republicans approve 58 - 24 percent. By a 63 - 15 percent margin, voters have a favorable opinion of Cuomo.
Paterson gets a negative 54 - 28 percent favorability while Giuliani gets a positive 55 - 36 percent score.
U.S. Senate Race
The 2010 Democratic primary for U.S. Senator remains in play as 27 percent back U.S. Rep. Carolyn Maloney and 23 percent back U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, with 4 percent for Jonathan Tasini and 44 percent undecided.
Sen. Gillibrand leads U.S. Rep. Peter King, a possible Republican challenger 44 - 28 percent, with 26 percent undecided. Maloney leads King 42 - 26 percent, with 30 percent undecided.
After five months in office, Gillibrand gets a 37 - 15 percent job approval rating from New York State voters, with 48 percent undecided.
Voters know little about the possible Senate candidates: 63 percent don't know enough about Gillibrand to form an opinion; 67 percent don't know enough about Maloney and 66 percent don't know enough about King.
"The New York clich‚, that a liberal wins a Democratic primary, looks like it holds true in this poll. Congresswoman Carolyn Maloney, a city liberal, edges Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, an upstate moderate, but almost half are undecided. They each beat Congressman Peter King, a Long Island Republican, by about the same," Carroll said.
From June 16 - 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed 2,477 New York State registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points. The survey includes 1,048 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for Governor were being held today and the candidates were David Paterson and Andrew Cuomo, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED DEMOCRAT Tot Men Wom Paterson 20% 25% 17% Cuomo 57 57 57 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 1 DK/NA 20 14 23
TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for governor were being held today and the candidates were David Paterson and Andrew Cuomo, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED DEMOCRAT........... Jun 24 May 13 Apr 06 Feb 17 2009 2009 2009 2009 Paterson 20 17 18 23 Cuomo 57 62 61 55 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 3 1 DK/NA 20 18 17 20
2. (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Kirsten Gillibrand, Carolyn Maloney and Jonathan Tasini, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED DEMOCRAT Tot Men Wom Gillibrand 23% 25% 22% Maloney 27 26 28 Tasini 4 5 3 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 2 DK/NA 44 41 46
TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Kirsten Gillibrand, Carolyn Maloney, and Jonathan Tasini, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED DEMOCRAT... Jun 24 Apr 06 Feb 17 2009 2009 2009 Gillibrand 23 29 24 Maloney 27 na na Tasini 4 na na McCarthy na 33 34 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 3 2 DK/NA 44 33 39
3. If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were David Paterson the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Paterson 34% 3% 60% 25% 34% 34% 25% 77% 48% Giuliani 52 90 28 57 55 50 62 6 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 2 5 3 3 3 3 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 1 4 5 3 4 3 4 3 DK/NA 7 4 6 9 5 10 7 10 6 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Paterson 32% 24% 25% 49% 27% Giuliani 51 62 60 37 61 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 4 3 3 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 3 5 4 DK/NA 10 8 8 7 6
TREND: If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were David Paterson the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Jun 24 May 13 Apr 06 Feb 17 2009 2009 2009 2009 Paterson 34 32 32 43 Giuliani 52 54 53 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 3 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 4 2 DK/NA 7 8 9 10
4. If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were Andrew Cuomo the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Cuomo 51% 12% 79% 45% 49% 52% 45% 83% 52% Giuliani 39 78 16 40 43 35 45 8 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 3 2 1 1 2 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 1 - DK/NA 8 9 4 10 5 11 8 7 8 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Cuomo 55% 41% 43% 65% 43% Giuliani 26 46 43 28 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 1 - DK/NA 15 10 11 5 7
TREND: If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were Andrew Cuomo the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Jun 24 May 13 Apr 06 Feb 17 2009 2009 2009 2009 Cuomo 51 47 53 51 Giuliani 39 41 36 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 2 2 DK/NA 8 9 9 9
5. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Kirsten Gillibrand the Democrat and Peter King the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Gillibrand 44% 13% 67% 38% 41% 46% 39% 68% 53% King 28 63 8 31 34 22 32 6 20 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 DK/NA 26 24 23 28 21 30 26 23 25 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Gillibrand 48% 46% 46% 49% 29% King 16 26 24 20 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 0 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 2 3 1 DK/NA 32 26 26 27 24
TREND: If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Kirsten Gillibrand the Democrat and Peter King the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Jun 24 Apr 06 Feb 17 2009 2009 2009 Gillibrand 44 40 42 King 28 28 26 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 2 DK/NA 26 28 28
6. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Carolyn Maloney the Democrat and Peter King the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Maloney 42% 8% 67% 36% 38% 45% 35% 72% 56% King 26 64 5 28 33 19 31 7 16 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 2 2 3 2 2 1 2 DK/NA 30 28 25 34 25 34 31 19 26 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Maloney 39% 31% 32% 54% 41% King 18 26 25 18 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 3 2 1 DK/NA 38 39 39 25 18
7. Is your opinion of - Andrew Cuomo favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Favorable 63% 47% 75% 63% 61% 65% 63% 68% 59% Unfavorable 15 33 4 16 21 10 17 5 11 Hvn't hrd enough 20 17 19 19 16 23 17 25 27 REFUSED 2 3 2 2 1 3 2 3 3 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Favorable 66% 58% 59% 68% 64% Unfavorable 14 19 18 11 17 Hvn't hrd enough 20 21 21 20 17 REFUSED 1 2 2 2 2
TREND: Is your opinion of Andrew Cuomo favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Jun 24 May 13 Apr 06 Feb 17 Jan 14 Dec 23 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 Favorable 63 51 63 63 57 55 Unfavorable 15 13 17 15 10 11 Hvn't hrd enough 20 34 18 20 32 32 REFUSED 2 2 2 2 2 2
8. Is your opinion of - David Paterson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Favorable 28% 13% 40% 22% 27% 28% 22% 57% 38% Unfavorable 54 72 43 57 58 50 62 25 39 Hvn't hrd enough 14 12 13 16 10 18 12 17 17 REFUSED 4 3 4 5 5 4 4 2 6 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Favorable 23% 22% 22% 37% 24% Unfavorable 57 61 61 43 59 Hvn't hrd enough 15 13 13 15 13 REFUSED 5 4 4 5 4
TREND: Is your opinion of David Paterson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Jun 24 May 13 Apr 06 Feb 17 Jan 26 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Favorable 28 24 27 41 48 Unfavorable 54 55 55 35 25 Hvn't hrd enough 14 18 14 20 24 REFUSED 4 3 4 4 3
9. Is your opinion of - Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Favorable 55% 87% 33% 56% 55% 54% 62% 16% 48% Unfavorable 36 7 56 34 38 35 29 72 42 Hvn't hrd enough 6 6 8 5 5 8 6 7 8 REFUSED 3 1 3 4 2 3 2 5 2 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Favorable 55% 64% 63% 40% 60% Unfavorable 34 23 25 52 34 Hvn't hrd enough 10 10 10 4 4 REFUSED 1 3 3 3 2
TREND: Is your opinion of Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? (*High also 56% Feb 2009 and Feb 2007)
FAVORABLE..... High Low Jun 24 May 13 Apr 06 Feb 17 Dec 17 May 13 Dec 17 2009 2009 2009 2009 2007 2009* 2007 Favorable 55 56 55 56 41 56 41 Unfavorable 36 32 35 35 40 32 40 Hvn't hrd enough 6 10 7 7 16 10 16 REFUSED 3 2 4 2 3 2 3
10. Is your opinion of - Kirsten Gillibrand favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Favorable 25% 18% 29% 27% 26% 25% 26% 22% 19% Unfavorable 10 16 8 11 13 9 11 4 10 Hvn't hrd enough 63 65 62 60 60 65 62 72 71 REFUSED 2 1 1 3 2 2 1 2 - UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Favorable 34% 37% 36% 19% 13% Unfavorable 6 10 10 10 13 Hvn't hrd enough 59 52 53 68 73 REFUSED - 1 1 3 1
TREND: Is your opinion of Kirsten Gillibrand favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
Jun 24 Apr 06 Feb 17 Jan 26 2009 2009 2009 2009 Favorable 25 24 24 25 Unfavorable 10 11 9 10 Hvn't hrd enough 63 64 65 63 REFUSED 2 1 1 1
11. Is your opinion of - Carolyn Maloney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Favorable 24% 9% 34% 23% 23% 25% 20% 38% 26% Unfavorable 8 15 2 9 11 5 9 4 6 Hvn't hrd enough 67 75 63 67 65 69 70 57 68 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 - UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Favorable 13% 13% 13% 36% 26% Unfavorable 2 5 4 8 15 Hvn't hrd enough 85 81 82 54 59 REFUSED - 1 1 2 1
12. Is your opinion of - Peter King favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Favorable 22% 44% 11% 24% 29% 16% 24% 11% 22% Unfavorable 11 2 15 11 13 9 9 16 13 Hvn't hrd enough 66 53 73 64 57 74 66 71 65 REFUSED 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 3 - UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Favorable 15% 13% 13% 22% 40% Unfavorable 4 5 5 17 14 Hvn't hrd enough 80 81 81 60 46 REFUSED - 1 1 2 1
TREND: Is your opinion of Peter King favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Jun 24 Apr 06 Feb 17 2009 2009 2009 Favorable 22 22 21 Unfavorable 11 11 10 Hvn't hrd enough 66 67 68 REFUSED 1 1 1
13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way David Paterson is handling his job as Governor?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Approve 28% 16% 36% 24% 29% 27% 23% 52% 33% Disapprove 61 76 52 64 64 58 66 35 54 DK/NA 12 9 12 12 8 15 10 14 13 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 25% 24% 24% 33% 26% Disapprove 64 67 66 53 62 DK/NA 12 9 9 14 13
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way David Paterson is handling his job as Governor? (Low app also 28% Apr 2009 & May 13 2009 / * High Dis also 61% May 13 2009)
APPROVE....... DIS... High Low High Jun 24 May 13 Apr 06 Feb 17 Aug 06 Jun 24 Jun 24 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 2009* 2009** Approve 28 28 28 45 64 28 28 Disapprove 61 61 60 41 14 61 61 DK/NA 12 10 13 14 22 12 12
14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Kirsten Gillibrand is handling her job as United States Senator?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Approve 37% 26% 45% 39% 37% 37% 37% 37% 41% Disapprove 15 23 10 15 19 11 15 9 16 DK/NA 48 51 46 46 44 52 49 54 44 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 37% 48% 46% 35% 23% Disapprove 12 14 14 14 17 DK/NA 51 38 40 51 60
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Kirsten Gillibrand is handling her job as United States Senator?
Jun 24 Apr 06 Feb 17 2009 2009 2009 Approve 37 33 28 Disapprove 15 13 10 DK/NA 48 54 62
15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Approve 63% 43% 78% 62% 64% 63% 62% 79% 65% Disapprove 23 44 9 26 30 17 27 7 13 DK/NA 14 13 12 13 6 20 12 13 22 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 59% 58% 58% 73% 57% Disapprove 20 28 27 16 28 DK/NA 21 14 14 12 15
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator? (*High app also 69% Oct 2001)
APPROVE....... DIS... High Low High Jun 24 Apr 06 Feb 17 Jan 14 Dec 8 Apr 15 Jan 20 2009 2009 2009 2009 2004* 1999 2006 Approve 63 61 64 57 69 51 58 Disapprove 23 25 24 24 16 22 28 DK/NA 14 14 12 19 15 28 14
16. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Approve 67% 31% 94% 63% 63% 71% 61% 96% 84% Disapprove 26 60 4 28 31 22 31 3 13 DK/NA 7 9 2 9 7 7 8 2 3 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 68% 60% 61% 82% 58% Disapprove 23 33 32 14 34 DK/NA 9 7 8 5 8
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
Jun 24 Apr 06 Feb 19 2009 2009 2009 Approve 67 71 72 Disapprove 26 21 17 DK/NA 7 7 10
19. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Andrew Cuomo is handling his job as State Attorney General?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Approve 73% 58% 82% 77% 74% 73% 74% 79% 65% Disapprove 12 24 6 11 16 10 12 8 17 DK/NA 14 18 12 12 10 18 14 13 19 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 76% 71% 72% 75% 74% Disapprove 7 13 12 11 14 DK/NA 17 16 16 13 12
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Andrew Cuomo is handling his job as State Attorney General?
APPROVE....... DIS... High Low High Jun 24 May 13 Apr 06 Feb 17 Feb 17 Feb 13 Jul 31 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2007 2007 Approve 73 68 75 76 76 42 68 Disapprove 12 12 14 11 11 16 19 DK/NA 14 20 11 13 13 42 24
21. Looking ahead to the 2010 election for Governor, do you feel that David Paterson deserves to be elected to a full 4 year term, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be elected to a full 4 year term?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Yes/Deserves 22% 11% 31% 19% 23% 22% 17% 47% 32% No/Does not 64 79 56 67 67 62 70 37 57 DK/NA 13 10 13 14 9 17 13 16 11 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Yes/Deserves 23% 18% 19% 29% 18% No/Does not 64 70 69 56 67 DK/NA 14 12 12 14 14
TREND: Looking ahead to the 2010 election for governor, do you feel that David Paterson deserves to be elected to a full 4-year term, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be elected to a full 4-year term?
Jun 24 May 13 Apr 06 2009 2009 2009 Yes/Deserves 22 21 22 No/Does Not 64 64 63 DK/NA 13 15 16