New York State (NY) Poll * July 7, 2009 * Obama's Approval Drops In Ohio - Quinnipiac University

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July 7, 2009 - Obama's Approval Drops In Ohio - Critical Swing State, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; 2010 Senate Race Tips Slightly To Democrats

Word format President Barack Obama gets a lackluster 49 - 44 percent approval rating in Ohio, considered by many to be the most important swing state in a presidential election, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This is President Obama's lowest approval rating in any national or statewide Quinnipiac University poll since he was inaugurated and is down from 62 - 31 percent in a May 6 survey.
By a small 48 - 46 percent margin, voters disapprove of the way Obama is handling the economy, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. This is down from a 57 - 36 percent approval May 6. A total of 66 percent of Ohio voters are "somewhat dissatisfied" or "very dissatisfied" with the way things are going in the state, while 33 percent are "very satisfied" or "somewhat satisfied," numbers that haven't changed since Obama was elected.
In the race for Ohio's U.S. Senate seat being vacated by retiring George Voinovich in 2010, Lee Fisher and Jennifer Brunner remain neck-and-neck for the Democratic nomination and both would defeat any of the GOP candidates if the election were today.
"The economy in Ohio is as bad as anywhere in America. These numbers indicate that for the first time voters have decided that President Barack Obama bears some responsibility for their problems," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Until now voters have given President Obama high ratings on the economy, blaming former President George W. Bush for their problems. They might be taking out their frustration on President Obama, possibly deciding that the change he promised has not come as quickly as they expected."
"Ohio historically has been the prototypical swing state. One of the reasons Barack Obama won the presidency by such a wide margin is that he carried Ohio with 52 percent of the vote and captured the lion's share of independent votes," Brown added.
"Now, by a 48 - 46 percent margin, Ohio independent voters give the President a failing grade on the economy. These numbers indicate that he may be losing, at least for now, some of those who voted for him in November and should be an indication to the White House that his honeymoon with the voters may be ending."
In the Senate race, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher holds a 24 - 21 percent lead over Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner in the race for the Democratic nomination, with 51 percent undecided.
Former U.S. Rep. Rob Portman holds a 33 - 10 percent lead over car dealer Tom Ganley on the Republican side, with 55 percent undecided.
In general election trial heats, Brunner would defeat Ganley 35 - 31 percent and get 35 percent to Portman's 34 percent. Fisher leads Ganley 36 - 30 percent and Portman 37 - 33 percent.
From June 26 - July 1, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,259 Ohio voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points. The survey includes 483 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points and 445 Republicans with a margin of error of +/-4.7 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data and RSS feed - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or (203) 582-5201.
2. (If registered Republican) As you may know, Ohio Senator George Voinovich will not be running for reelection in 2010. Thinking about the 2010 Republican primary for United States Senator, if the 2010 Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Rob Portman and Tom Ganley, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED REPS.. Tot Men Wom Portman 33% 39% 25% Ganley 10 11 9 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 - DK/NA 55 46 65
TREND: (If registered Republican) As you may know, Ohio Senator George Voinovich will not be running for reelection in 2010. Thinking about the 2010 Republican primary for United States Senator, if the 2010 Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Rob Portman and Tom Ganley, for whom would you vote? (*Someone Else & Wouldn't Vote volunteered options not in option list)
REGISTERED REPUBLICANS....... Jul 7 May 6 Mar 18 Feb 4 2009 2009 2009 2009* Portman 33 29 31 33 Ganley 10 8 na na Taylor na 8 14 11 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 - DK/NA 55 54 52 56
3. (If registered Democrat) Thinking about the 2010 Democratic primary for United States Senator, if the 2010 Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Lee Fisher and Jennifer Brunner, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED DEMS.. Tot Men Wom Fisher 24% 31% 20% Brunner 21 26 18 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 4 DK/NA 51 42 56
TREND: (If registered Democrat) Thinking about the 2010 Democratic primary for United States Senator, if the 2010 Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Lee Fisher and Jennifer Brunner, for whom would you vote? (*Someone Else & Wouldn't Vote volunteered options not in option list / na=not asked)
REGISTERED DEMOCRATS......... Jul 7 May 6 Mar 18 Feb 4 2009 2009 2009 2009* Fisher 24 20 18 18 Brunner 21 16 14 16 Yates na 4 6 na Ryan na na 12 14 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 2 - DK/NA 51 59 46 53
6. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Lee Fisher the Democrat and Rob Portman the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Fisher 37% 5% 76% 28% 33% 40% 28% Portman 33 72 4 31 41 27 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - - 3 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 1 3 2 1 1 DK/NA 26 22 19 35 21 31 27 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Fisher 35% 43% 30% 40% 24% 39% Portman 32 28 25 26 53 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 5 - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 4 - 2 3 DK/NA 29 28 36 34 19 17
TREND: If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Lee Fisher the Democrat and Rob Portman the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Jul 7 May 6 Mar 18 Feb 4 2009 2009 2009 2009 Fisher 37 42 41 42 Portman 33 31 33 27 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 2 1 DK/NA 26 26 24 29
7. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Lee Fisher the Democrat and Tom Ganley the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Fisher 36% 5% 73% 26% 32% 39% 26% Ganley 30 65 4 29 38 24 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 2 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 DK/NA 31 28 22 42 26 36 29 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Fisher 36% 41% 31% 36% 21% 37% Ganley 26 31 23 33 34 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 2 - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 4 1 2 3 DK/NA 35 26 40 29 41 24
8. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Jennifer Brunner the Democrat and Tom Ganley the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Brunner 35% 6% 71% 23% 31% 38% 27% Ganley 31 67 4 30 38 25 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 2 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 3 1 1 DK/NA 31 25 23 44 26 35 31 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Brunner 35% 37% 40% 31% 24% 37% Ganley 32 30 23 35 34 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 5 - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 3 2 - 3 3 DK/NA 32 30 31 34 38 24
9. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Jennifer Brunner the Democrat and Rob Portman the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Brunner 35% 5% 71% 26% 31% 39% 25% Portman 34 72 5 32 42 27 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 2 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - - 1 2 1 - DK/NA 29 23 23 39 24 33 28 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Brunner 31% 39% 41% 32% 24% 38% Portman 36 28 22 29 54 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 4 - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 2 - 1 3 DK/NA 31 32 31 38 21 20
TREND: If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Jennifer Brunner the Democrat and Rob Portman the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Jul 7 May 6 Mar 18 Feb 4 2009 2009 2009 2009 Brunner 35 40 39 38 Portman 34 32 34 28 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 2 1 DK/NA 29 27 25 31
14. Is your opinion of - Lee Fisher favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 29% 14% 49% 24% 30% 28% 26% Unfavorable 17 32 6 15 23 11 20 Hvn't hrd enough 53 53 45 59 45 60 53 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 2 1 1
TREND: Is your opinion of - Lee Fisher favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Jul 7 May 6 Mar 18 Feb 4 Dec 10 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 Favorable 29 37 32 33 23 Unfavorable 17 13 13 10 10 Hvn't hrd enough 53 48 54 55 66 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 1
15. Is your opinion of - Jennifer Brunner favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 27% 9% 46% 24% 27% 27% 22% Unfavorable 16 31 4 14 21 11 20 Hvn't hrd enough 56 59 50 60 50 61 57 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 2 1 1
TREND: Is your opinion of - Jennifer Brunner favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
Jul 7 May 6 Mar 18 Feb 4 Dec 10 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 Favorable 27 31 31 34 26 Unfavorable 16 12 14 10 24 Hvn't hrd enough 56 55 55 55 49 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1
16. Is your opinion of - Rob Portman favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 21% 35% 8% 23% 27% 16% 24% Unfavorable 6 1 9 6 5 6 3 Hvn't hrd enough 72 63 82 70 67 77 71 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
TREND: Is your opinion of - Rob Portman favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Jul 7 May 6 Mar 18 Feb 4 Dec 10 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 Favorable 21 22 25 21 12 Unfavorable 6 9 7 6 7 Hvn't hrd enough 72 68 67 72 80 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1
17. Is your opinion of - Tom Ganley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 12% 19% 6% 11% 14% 10% 14% Unfavorable 4 2 7 3 5 3 3 Hvn't hrd enough 83 78 86 84 79 86 82 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 2 1 1
TREND: Is your opinion of - Tom Ganley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Jul 7 May 6 2009 2009 Favorable 12 6 Unfavorable 4 4 Hvn't hrd enough 83 89 REFUSED 1 1
19. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Voinovich is handling his job as United States Senator?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 52% 60% 53% 46% 49% 55% 53% Disapprove 29 28 23 35 39 21 30 DK/NA 19 13 24 18 13 24 17 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Approve 45% 60% 45% 48% 44% 56% Disapprove 29 25 31 36 37 28 DK/NA 26 15 24 16 19 15
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Voinovich is handling his job as United States Senator? (*Also 55% on 2/4/2009)
APPROVE....... High Low Jul 7 May 6 Mar 18 Feb 4 Dec 10 May 6 Dec 13 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 2009* 2006 Approve 52 55 52 55 51 55 41 Disapprove 29 30 32 29 31 30 33 DK/NA 19 15 16 16 17 15 26
20. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Sherrod Brown is handling his job as United States Senator?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 41% 29% 58% 37% 36% 46% 35% Disapprove 29 43 12 32 39 19 34 DK/NA 30 28 30 31 24 35 32 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Approve 37% 51% 36% 48% 25% 37% Disapprove 29 27 22 20 36 32 DK/NA 33 22 41 33 39 30
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Sherrod Brown is handling his job as United States Senator?
APPROVE....... High Low Jul 7 May 6 Mar 18 Feb 4 Dec 10 May 6 Jul 7 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 2009 2009 Approve 41 52 48 51 48 52 41 Disapprove 29 24 25 22 26 24 29 DK/NA 30 24 27 27 26 24 30
22. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Lee Fisher is handling his job as Ohio's lieutenant governor?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 39% 26% 58% 32% 38% 40% 35% Disapprove 24 36 10 23 30 18 30 DK/NA 38 38 32 45 32 42 34 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Approve 35% 42% 31% 59% 30% 42% Disapprove 23 21 27 14 26 30 DK/NA 42 36 42 27 44 28
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Lee Fisher is handling his job as Ohio's lieutenant governor?
Jul 7 May 6 2009 2009 Approve 39 49 Disapprove 24 17 DK/NA 38 33
23. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jennifer Brunner is handling her job as Ohio's Secretary of State?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 38% 22% 60% 32% 37% 39% 34% Disapprove 25 42 7 27 32 18 30 DK/NA 37 36 33 41 30 43 36 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Approve 36% 44% 44% 40% 28% 33% Disapprove 29 21 13 21 31 31 DK/NA 36 35 43 39 41 35
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jennifer Brunner is handling her job as Ohio's Secretary of State?
Jul 7 May 6 Mar 18 Feb 4 Dec 10 Aug 14 Jun 4 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 2008 2008 Approve 38 45 41 44 39 38 38 Disapprove 25 20 19 16 28 12 13 DK/NA 37 34 39 41 33 50 48
24. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 49% 19% 85% 38% 39% 57% 33% Disapprove 44 75 11 48 53 36 59 DK/NA 8 6 3 14 8 7 8 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Approve 50% 52% 55% 46% 36% 47% Disapprove 43 39 40 44 60 47 DK/NA 6 10 6 10 4 6
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
Jul 7 May 6 Mar 18 Feb 6 2009 2009 2009 2009 Approve 49 62 57 67 Disapprove 44 31 33 16 DK/NA 8 7 11 17
25. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Ohio today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Very satisfied 2% 1% 4% 1% 3% 2% 3% Smwht satisfied 31 22 46 27 28 35 26 Smwht dissatisfied 36 40 31 36 34 38 36 Very dissatisfied 30 36 19 36 34 25 35 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 - 1 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Very satisfied 3% 3% - 2% 3% 1% Smwht satisfied 29 33 32 49 25 28 Smwht dissatisfied 39 35 39 27 39 36 Very dissatisfied 29 29 28 22 33 34 DK/NA - 1 1 - - 1
TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Ohio today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
VERY+SMWHT.... High Low Jul 7 May 6 Mar 17 Feb 5 Dec 11 Mar 21 Mar 17 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 2007 2009 Very satisfied 2 4 2 2 3 5 2 Smwht satisfied 31 39 30 31 30 49 30 Smwht dissatisfied 36 32 39 37 35 28 39 Very dissatisfied 30 24 28 28 31 16 28 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
28. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the economy?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 46% 19% 81% 33% 37% 53% 31% Disapprove 48 79 13 56 58 40 64 DK/NA 6 2 5 11 4 8 5 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Approve 43% 49% 51% 47% 37% 45% Disapprove 52 43 47 43 59 51 DK/NA 5 8 2 10 4 5
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the economy?
Jul 7 May 6 Mar 18 Feb 6 2009 2009 2009 2009 Approve 46 57 53 58 Disapprove 48 36 36 21 DK/NA 6 7 11 21