New York State (NY) Poll * August 16, 2009 * Cuomo Tops Paterson 4 - 1 In N - Quinnipiac University

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August 16, 2009 - Cuomo Tops Paterson 4 - 1 In New York Dem Primary, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Governor's Approval Up Slightly

Word format New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo leads Gov. David Paterson 61 - 15 percent among Democrats in a primary contest for the 2010 governor's race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
This compares to a 57 - 20 percent Cuomo lead in a June 24 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.
In this latest poll, former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani leads Gov. Paterson 53 - 33 percent in a 2010 general election, while Cuomo tops Giuliani 48 - 39 percent.
In the Cuomo-Giuliani matchup, independent voters split 43 - 43 percent, while Republicans go to the former mayor 82 - 9 percent. Democrats back Cuomo 76 - 12 percent. White voters split with 46 percent for Giuliani and 44 percent for Cuomo, while black voters go Democratic 85 - 5 percent.
New York State voters disapprove 59 - 30 percent of the job Paterson is doing, a slight improvement on his 61 - 28 percent disapproval in May 13 and June 24 surveys, his lowest scores ever. This is the first uptick in Paterson's approval in months.
"Pols and pollsters never say never. But it's sure getting hard to stay even-handed about Gov. David Paterson vs. Attorney General Andrew Cuomo. The question is: How one-sided can it get? " said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Voters disagree 49 - 37 percent with the argument that a Democratic primary is divisive and helps the Republicans. And black support for Cuomo, even against Paterson, seems to be strong.
"Suburbia likes Giuliani, giving him a five-point edge, but Cuomo is up 22 points in the former mayor's home town."
New York State voters give Gov. Paterson a negative 26 - 53 percent favorability, but black voters give him a positive 49 - 37 percent rating. Cuomo gets a 52 - 12 percent favorability, including 62 - 2 percent among blacks. Giuliani gets a 53 - 33 percent positive score.
Cuomo also gets a 74 - 10 percent approval rating. This is the fourth Quinnipiac University poll since February 17 showing Cuomo's job approval over 70 percent.
"Cuomo's job approval rating is stratospheric and a plus 64 points to Paterson's minus 29 points," Carroll said.
President Obama's Approval
New York State voters approve 60 - 35 percent of the job President Barack Obama is doing, down from 67 - 26 percent June 24. In today's survey, Obama wins 92 - 7 percent approval from Democrats and 50 - 42 percent support from independent voters, while Republicans turn thumbs down 73 - 20 percent.
Voters approve 58 - 38 percent of the way President Obama is handling the economy and say 55 - 29 percent that his policies will help the economy.
By a smaller 37 - 32 percent margin, voters expect Obama's policies will improve their personal financial situation, while 28 percent say they will make no difference.
"President Barack Obama is losing support in every state we poll, including true-blue New York. Of course he started from a much higher base in New York," Carroll said.
Sen. Charles Schumer has a 58 - 27 percent approval, his lowest overall approval score since a 58 - 28 percent rating January 20, 2006.
Junior Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand has a 33 - 19 percent approval rating, with 48 percent undecided. This compares to a 37 - 15 percent job approval rating, also with 48 percent undecided, June 24.
From August 10 - 13, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,667 New York State registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. The survey includes 708 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for Governor were being held today and the candidates were David Paterson and Andrew Cuomo, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED DEMOCRAT............ Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Paterson 15% 17% 14% 14% 24% Cuomo 61 58 62 69 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 - DK/NA 22 22 23 15 31
TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for governor were being held today and the candidates were David Paterson and Andrew Cuomo, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED DEMOCRAT................... Aug 16 Jun 24 May 13 Apr 6 Feb 17 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Paterson 15 20 17 18 23 Cuomo 61 57 62 61 55 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 3 1 DK/NA 22 20 18 17 20
2. If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were David Paterson the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Paterson 33% 4% 62% 21% 31% 35% 25% 69% Giuliani 53 90 26 60 57 50 60 19 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 1 4 2 2 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 1 3 6 3 4 4 3 DK/NA 8 5 8 10 7 9 8 9 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Paterson 31% 23% 24% 47% 25% Giuliani 50 60 58 41 64 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 3 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 8 4 4 4 2 DK/NA 9 10 10 7 8
TREND: If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were David Paterson the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Aug 16 Jun 24 May 13 Apr 6 Feb 17 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Paterson 33 34 32 32 43 Giuliani 53 52 54 53 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 3 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 3 4 2 DK/NA 8 7 8 9 10
3. If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were Andrew Cuomo the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Cuomo 48% 9% 76% 43% 43% 53% 44% 85% Giuliani 39 82 12 43 44 35 46 5 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 DK/NA 10 7 9 12 10 10 8 7 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Cuomo 60% 44% 46% 55% 41% Giuliani 29 43 41 33 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 2 2 - DK/NA 10 10 10 9 12
TREND: If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were Andrew Cuomo the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Aug 16 Jun 24 May 13 Apr 6 Feb 17 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Cuomo 48 51 47 53 51 Giuliani 39 39 41 36 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 2 DK/NA 10 8 9 9 9
4. Is your opinion of Andrew Cuomo favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 52% 41% 65% 45% 48% 55% 51% 62% Unfavorable 12 21 4 14 16 9 14 2 Hvn't hrd enough 34 35 29 38 34 33 33 32 REFUSED 2 3 2 3 2 3 2 4 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Favorable 53% 48% 48% 55% 53% Unfavorable 9 13 12 10 17 Hvn't hrd enough 37 38 38 33 27 REFUSED 1 1 1 3 4
TREND: Is your opinion of Andrew Cuomo favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Aug 16 Jun 24 May 13 Apr 6 Feb 17 Jan 14 Dec 23 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 Favorable 52 63 51 63 63 57 55 Unfavorable 12 15 13 17 15 10 11 Hvn't hrd enough 34 20 34 18 20 32 32 REFUSED 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
5. Is your opinion of David Paterson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 26% 12% 40% 21% 25% 27% 22% 49% Unfavorable 53 67 38 59 54 51 58 37 Hvn't hrd enough 18 19 19 17 18 18 17 12 REFUSED 3 2 3 3 3 4 4 1 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Favorable 25% 21% 21% 32% 25% Unfavorable 53 62 61 43 54 Hvn't hrd enough 19 14 14 23 17 REFUSED 3 3 3 3 4
TREND: Is your opinion of David Paterson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Aug 16 Jun 24 May 13 Apr 6 Feb 17 Jan 26 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Favorable 26 28 24 27 41 48 Unfavorable 53 54 55 55 35 25 Hvn't hrd enough 18 14 18 14 20 24 REFUSED 3 4 3 4 4 3
6. Is your opinion of Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable 53% 86% 31% 58% 56% 50% 59% 21% Unfavorable 33 3 52 31 32 34 27 65 Hvn't hrd enough 11 8 14 7 9 12 10 11 REFUSED 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Favorable 56% 55% 55% 44% 64% Unfavorable 31 24 25 45 28 Hvn't hrd enough 13 17 16 8 6 REFUSED - 5 4 4 2
TREND: Is your opinion of Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? (*High also 56% Feb 2009 and Feb 2007)
FAVORABLE..... High Low Aug 16 Jun 24 May 13 Apr 6 Feb 17 May 13 Dec 17 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009* 2007 Favorable 53 55 56 55 56 56 41 Unfavorable 33 36 32 35 35 32 40 Hvn't hrd enough 11 6 10 7 7 10 16 REFUSED 4 3 2 4 2 2 3
7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way David Paterson is handling his job as governor?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 30% 18% 43% 24% 30% 29% 25% 44% Disapprove 59 70 43 66 60 57 63 47 DK/NA 12 12 14 10 10 14 12 9 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 26% 23% 23% 36% 32% Disapprove 68 66 66 49 59 DK/NA 6 11 10 15 9
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way David Paterson is handling his job as governor? (Low App also 28% Apr 2009 & May 13 2009 / * High Dis also 61% May 13 2009)
APPROVE....... DIS... High Low High Aug 16 Jun 24 May 13 Apr 6 Aug 6 Jun 24 Jun 24 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 2009* 2009** Approve 30 28 28 28 64 28 28 Disapprove 59 61 61 60 14 61 61 DK/NA 12 12 10 13 22 12 12
8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Kirsten Gillibrand is handling her job as United States Senator?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 33% 23% 44% 27% 35% 30% 29% 50% Disapprove 19 28 13 21 21 17 20 14 DK/NA 48 50 44 52 43 53 50 37 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 37% 35% 35% 34% 27% Disapprove 18 18 18 18 23 DK/NA 46 47 47 49 51
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Kirsten Gillibrand is handling her job as United States Senator?
Aug 16 Jun 24 Apr 6 Feb 17 2009 2009 2009 2009 Approve 33 37 33 28 Disapprove 19 15 13 10 DK/NA 48 48 54 62
9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 58% 39% 79% 47% 52% 64% 55% 79% Disapprove 27 46 9 35 34 21 30 7 DK/NA 15 15 12 18 14 15 15 14 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 54% 51% 51% 65% 58% Disapprove 31 29 29 20 34 DK/NA 15 20 19 14 8
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator? (*High app also 69% Oct 2001)
APPROVE....... DIS... High Low High Aug 16 Jun 24 Apr 6 Feb 17 Dec 8 Apr 15 Jan 20 2009 2009 2009 2009 2004* 1999 2006 Approve 58 63 61 64 69 51 58 Disapprove 27 23 25 24 16 22 28 DK/NA 15 14 14 12 15 28 14
10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 60% 20% 92% 50% 55% 64% 51% 96% Disapprove 35 73 7 42 40 30 43 3 DK/NA 6 8 1 8 6 5 6 1 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 65% 54% 56% 73% 45% Disapprove 29 40 38 22 49 DK/NA 6 6 6 5 6
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
Aug 16 Jun 24 Apr 6 Feb 19 2009 2009 2009 2009 Approve 60 67 71 72 Disapprove 35 26 21 17 DK/NA 6 7 7 10
13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Andrew Cuomo is handling his job as State Attorney General?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 74% 64% 83% 71% 74% 73% 72% 81% Disapprove 10 18 7 7 11 8 10 10 DK/NA 17 18 10 22 15 18 18 9 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 66% 72% 72% 76% 73% Disapprove 13 9 9 9 10 DK/NA 22 19 19 15 17
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Andrew Cuomo is handling his job as State Attorney General?
APPROVE....... DIS... High Low High Aug 16 Jun 24 May 13 Apr 6 Feb 17 Feb 13 Jul 31 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2007 2007 Approve 74 73 68 75 76 42 68 Disapprove 10 12 12 14 11 16 19 DK/NA 17 14 20 11 13 42 24
15. Looking ahead to the 2010 election for governor, do you feel that David Paterson deserves to be elected to a full 4-year term, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be elected to a full 4-year term?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes/Deserves 20% 11% 30% 17% 20% 21% 17% 34% No/Does not 67 77 57 69 67 66 70 53 DK/NA 13 12 13 14 13 13 13 14 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Yes/Deserves 20% 19% 19% 25% 15% No/Does not 70 69 69 60 72 DK/NA 10 12 11 15 13
TREND: Looking ahead to the 2010 election for governor, do you feel that David Paterson deserves to be elected to a full 4-year term, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be elected to a full 4-year term?
Aug 16 Jun 24 May 13 Apr 6 2009 2009 2009 2009 Yes/Deserves 20 22 21 22 No/Does not 67 64 64 63 DK/NA 13 13 15 16
16. Some people say that a Democratic primary for governor would be divisive and help the Republicans in the general election for governor. Do you agree or disagree?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Agree 37% 38% 38% 35% 35% 38% 35% 39% Disagree 49 43 52 50 53 44 49 52 DK/NA 14 20 10 15 11 17 17 9 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Agree 34% 36% 36% 37% 39% Disagree 52 46 47 51 47 DK/NA 14 18 17 11 14
26. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling - the economy?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve 58% 21% 89% 49% 54% 62% 49% 95% Disapprove 38 78 9 44 43 33 46 3 DK/NA 4 1 2 7 3 6 5 2 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 64% 51% 53% 72% 45% Disapprove 33 43 41 25 52 DK/NA 3 6 6 3 4
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the economy?
Aug 16 Apr 7 Feb 19 2009 2009 2009 Approve 58 67 66 Disapprove 38 25 22 DK/NA 4 8 13
27. Do you think President Obama's policies have helped the economy, hurt the economy, or haven't made a difference?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Helped 47% 18% 75% 37% 46% 48% 39% 84% Hurt 19 40 4 21 24 14 24 - No difference 30 39 19 35 26 34 33 16 DK/NA 4 3 2 6 3 4 4 - UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Helped 49% 40% 41% 59% 39% Hurt 18 24 23 11 24 No difference 31 32 32 26 33 DK/NA 2 4 4 4 3
28. Looking forward, do you think President Obama's policies will help the economy, will hurt the economy, or won't make a difference?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Will help 55% 16% 88% 46% 51% 60% 47% 93% Will hurt 29 65 4 35 36 23 36 3 No difference 12 17 6 13 10 13 14 2 DK/NA 4 2 2 6 3 5 3 2 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Will help 63% 48% 50% 69% 43% Will hurt 22 34 32 19 41 No difference 13 13 13 10 13 DK/NA 2 5 4 3 4
29. Do you think President Obama's policies have helped your personal financial situation, hurt your personal financial situation, or haven't made a difference?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Helped 19% 4% 33% 12% 20% 17% 13% 46% Hurt 18 37 3 22 22 15 21 - No difference 63 59 64 65 58 68 66 54 DK/NA - - - 1 1 - - - UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Helped 17% 15% 16% 26% 12% Hurt 24 21 21 14 19 No difference 58 63 63 60 68 DK/NA 1 - 1 - 1
30. Looking forward, do you think President Obama's policies will help your personal financial situation, will hurt your personal financial situation, or won't make a difference?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Will help 37% 9% 63% 27% 36% 38% 28% 81% Will hurt 32 60 8 41 37 26 39 - No difference 28 28 26 27 24 31 29 17 DK/NA 4 2 3 5 2 5 4 1 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Will help 37% 31% 32% 48% 28% Will hurt 27 36 35 20 46 No difference 32 29 29 29 22 DK/NA 4 4 4 4 3