New York State (NY) Poll * October 21, 2009 * Blacks Back Cuomo Over Paterso - Quinnipiac University

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October 21, 2009 - Blacks Back Cuomo Over Paterson 2-1, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Governor's Approval Continues To Inch Up

Word format New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo leads Gov. David Paterson 51 - 24 percent among black Democrats in a primary contest for the 2010 governor's race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today, and does better than Gov. Paterson among black voters in job approval and favorability.
Among all Democrats, Cuomo tops Paterson 61 - 19 percent, compared to 61 - 15 percent in an August 16 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.
In a Republican primary for Governor, former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani tops former U.S. Rep. Rick Lazio 74 - 9 percent. Looking at possible general election matchups:
Giuliani leads Paterson 54 - 32 percent; Cuomo tops Giuliani 50 - 40 percent; Paterson ties Lazio 38 - 38 percent; Cuomo leads Lazio 61 - 22 percent.
In the Cuomo-Giuliani matchup, independent voters split with 44 percent for Cuomo and 43 percent for Giuliani. White voters back Giuliani 47 - 42 percent. Black voters go to Cuomo 78 - 14 percent.
In a Paterson-Giuliani face-off, black voters back the Governor 72 - 13 percent.
"If there's a racial issue in a matchup between Gov. David Paterson and Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, these numbers don't show it. Black Democrats back Cuomo hands down, and black voters in general give Cuomo better grades than the Governor on every measure - even in a race against Mayor Rudolph Giuliani," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"The only good news for Gov. Paterson is that he doesn't lose to Rick Lazio."
New York State voters disapprove 57 - 30 percent of the job Paterson is doing, compared to 59 - 30 percent disapproval August 16. He gets a negative 28 - 52 percent favorability rating.
Cuomo gets a 71 - 11 percent approval rating and a 61 - 13 percent favorability score.
Looking at how black voters rate Paterson and Cuomo:
75 - 9 percent job approval for Cuomo; 46 - 38 percent job approval for Paterson; 70 - 3 percent favorability for Cuomo; 53 - 26 percent favorability for Paterson.
"Nothing seems to help the Governor's job approval numbers. He made news by calling for big cuts to balance the state budget, but voters still turn thumbs down," Carroll said.
"Nothing seems to hurt Attorney General Cuomo whose job performance is still stratospheric. He remains the man to beat in 2010."
President Barack Obama's administration did the "wrong thing" in asking Paterson not to run for election to a full term next year, voters say 52 - 34 percent. Black voters seem less offended than white voters as blacks say 43 - 35 percent the stop-Paterson move was wrong, compared to 57 - 31 percent among whites.
"Voters don't approve of the way messengers from President Barack Obama suggested that Paterson should not run," Carroll said. "Many politicians thought it was a clumsy tactic and, asked if it was right or wrong, most New Yorkers said 'wrong.'"
President Obama's Approval
New York State voters approve 62 - 32 percent of the job President Obama is doing, compared to 60 - 35 percent August 16, before his stop-Paterson move became public. In today's survey, Obama wins 89 - 7 percent approval from Democrats and 56 - 38 percent support from independent voters. Republicans disapprove 70 - 22 percent.
From October 14 - 19, Quinnipiac University surveyed 2,367 New York State registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points. The survey includes 1,089 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points and 659 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points. There are 299 black voters with a margin of error of +/- 5.7 percent.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.
1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for governor were being held today and the candidates were David Paterson and Andrew Cuomo, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED DEMOCRATS........... Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Paterson 19% 23% 16% 12% 24% Cuomo 61 60 62 70 51 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 2 2 1 DK/NA 17 14 18 16 22
TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for governor were being held today and the candidates were David Paterson and Andrew Cuomo, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED DEMOCRATS.......................... Oct 21 Aug 16 Jun 24 May 13 Apr 6 Feb 17 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Paterson 19 15 20 17 18 23 Cuomo 61 61 57 62 61 55 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 1 3 1 DK/NA 17 22 20 18 17 20
2. (If registered Republican) If the 2010 Republican primary for governor were being held today and the candidates were Rick Lazio and Rudy Giuliani, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED REPS.. Tot Men Wom Lazio 9% 12% 5% Giuliani 74 73 76 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 1 DK/NA 14 12 17
3. If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were David Paterson the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Paterson 32% 3% 56% 24% 32% 32% 21% 72% 46% Giuliani 54 90 31 58 56 51 65 13 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 1 4 6 5 4 4 5 1 DK/NA 9 5 8 9 6 11 8 8 15 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Paterson 44% 21% 24% 46% 24% Giuliani 38 62 59 40 65 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 5 4 3 DK/NA 11 11 11 8 7
TREND: If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were David Paterson the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Oct 21 Aug 16 Jun 24 May 13 Apr 6 Feb 17 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Paterson 32 33 34 32 32 43 Giuliani 54 53 52 54 53 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 3 3 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 4 3 4 2 DK/NA 9 8 7 8 9 10
4. If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were Andrew Cuomo the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Cuomo 50% 14% 76% 44% 44% 56% 42% 78% 63% Giuliani 40 79 17 43 47 33 47 14 28 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 - 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 8 7 6 10 6 10 9 7 8 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Cuomo 61% 42% 45% 61% 44% Giuliani 30 45 43 31 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 2 1 1 DK/NA 8 10 10 6 7
TREND: If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were Andrew Cuomo the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Oct 21 Aug 16 Jun 24 May 13 Apr 6 Feb 17 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Cuomo 50 48 51 47 53 51 Giuliani 40 39 39 41 36 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 1 2 2 DK/NA 8 10 8 9 9 9
5. If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were David Paterson the Democrat and Rick Lazio the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Paterson 38% 9% 63% 30% 38% 39% 28% 70% 61% Lazio 38 76 16 40 43 33 47 13 19 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 5 3 2 3 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 6 3 6 6 6 6 6 3 3 DK/NA 16 12 13 19 11 20 17 14 15 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Paterson 53% 28% 31% 52% 30% Lazio 26 47 44 25 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 3 3 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 6 6 7 7 3 DK/NA 13 15 15 14 20
6. If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were Andrew Cuomo the Democrat and Rick Lazio the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Cuomo 61% 27% 83% 57% 57% 64% 55% 80% 69% Lazio 22 60 4 21 28 16 27 5 9 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 3 3 1 2 - 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 - 2 DK/NA 13 11 10 16 9 17 13 14 18 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Cuomo 69% 54% 56% 69% 56% Lazio 13 27 25 15 28 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 3 3 2 1 DK/NA 13 14 14 13 15
7. Is your opinion of Andrew Cuomo favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Favorable 61% 45% 73% 59% 58% 64% 60% 70% 61% Unfavorable 13 25 5 15 18 9 16 3 5 Hvn't hrd enough 23 27 20 25 22 24 23 21 31 REFUSED 3 3 2 1 2 3 2 5 2 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Favorable 68% 57% 58% 66% 59% Unfavorable 11 16 15 10 13 Hvn't hrd enough 17 24 24 20 26 REFUSED 4 3 3 3 1
TREND: Is your opinion of Andrew Cuomo favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? (*High also 63% Apr 2009 and Feb 2009)
FAVORABLE..... High Low Oct 21 Aug 16 Jun 24 May 13 Apr 6 Jun 24 May 13 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009* 2009 Favorable 61 52 63 51 63 63 51 Unfavorable 13 12 15 13 17 15 13 Hvn't hrd enough 23 34 20 34 18 20 34 REFUSED 3 2 2 2 2 2 2
8. Is your opinion of David Paterson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Favorable 28% 12% 40% 25% 30% 27% 21% 53% 41% Unfavorable 52 68 40 55 55 49 61 26 28 Hvn't hrd enough 15 16 15 16 12 18 14 16 27 REFUSED 5 3 6 4 3 6 4 5 4 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Favorable 39% 21% 24% 36% 23% Unfavorable 45 62 60 41 55 Hvn't hrd enough 13 13 13 17 16 REFUSED 4 3 3 5 6
TREND: Is your opinion of David Paterson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Oct 21 Aug 16 Jun 24 May 13 Apr 6 Feb 17 Jan 26 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Favorable 28 26 28 24 27 41 48 Unfavorable 52 53 54 55 55 35 25 Hvn't hrd enough 15 18 14 18 14 20 24 REFUSED 5 3 4 3 4 4 3
9. Is your opinion of Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Favorable 57% 87% 39% 60% 60% 54% 65% 26% 52% Unfavorable 32 7 49 30 31 34 26 61 29 Hvn't hrd enough 8 5 9 9 7 9 8 10 13 REFUSED 2 1 3 1 2 3 2 4 5 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Favorable 53% 60% 59% 47% 69% Unfavorable 28 24 25 44 28 Hvn't hrd enough 17 14 14 5 2 REFUSED 3 2 2 4 1
TREND: Is your opinion of Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
FAVORABLE..... High Low Oct 21 Aug 16 Jun 24 May 13 Apr 6 Oct 21 Dec 17 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2007 Favorable 57 53 55 56 55 57 41 Unfavorable 32 33 36 32 35 32 40 Hvn't hrd enough 8 11 6 10 7 8 16 REFUSED 2 4 3 2 4 2 3
10. Is your opinion of Rick Lazio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Favorable 15% 34% 7% 16% 18% 13% 18% 6% 9% Unfavorable 13 6 21 9 15 11 13 10 18 Hvn't hrd enough 70 59 70 75 64 75 67 81 72 REFUSED 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 4 - UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Favorable 12% 13% 13% 13% 23% Unfavorable 19 12 12 14 12 Hvn't hrd enough 67 73 73 71 64 REFUSED 2 2 2 2 1
11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way David Paterson is handling his job as governor?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Approve 30% 14% 38% 28% 32% 27% 25% 46% 37% Disapprove 57 74 46 59 57 56 63 38 41 DK/NA 14 11 16 13 10 17 12 15 21 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 41% 24% 26% 36% 26% Disapprove 46 65 62 47 61 DK/NA 13 11 11 17 13
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way David Paterson is handling his job as governor? (Low App also 28% Apr 2009 & May 2009 / * High Dis also 61% May 2009)
APPROVE....... DIS... High Low High Oct 21 Aug 16 Jun 24 May 13 Aug 6 Jun 24 Jun 24 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 2009* 2009** Approve 30 30 28 28 64 28 28 Disapprove 57 59 61 61 14 61 61 DK/NA 14 12 12 10 22 12 12
12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Kirsten Gillibrand is handling her job as United States Senator?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Approve 32% 22% 41% 30% 31% 33% 31% 37% 34% Disapprove 20 36 11 19 24 16 23 11 10 DK/NA 48 42 48 51 45 51 46 52 56 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 40% 39% 39% 31% 20% Disapprove 14 23 22 16 23 DK/NA 46 38 39 53 57
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Kirsten Gillibrand is handling her job as United States Senator?
Oct 21 Aug 16 Jun 24 Apr 6 Feb 17 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Approve 32 33 37 33 28 Disapprove 20 19 15 13 10 DK/NA 48 48 48 54 62
13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Approve 62% 44% 78% 56% 61% 63% 59% 74% 63% Disapprove 24 45 9 29 29 20 29 11 13 DK/NA 14 11 13 15 11 17 12 15 24 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 61% 55% 56% 68% 62% Disapprove 17 29 27 19 27 DK/NA 22 16 17 12 11
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator? (*High app also 69% Oct 2001)
APPROVE....... DIS... High Low High Oct 21 Aug 16 Jun 24 Apr 6 Dec 8 Apr 15 Jan 20 2009 2009 2009 2009 2004* 1999 2006 Approve 62 58 63 61 69 51 58 Disapprove 24 27 23 25 16 22 28 DK/NA 14 15 14 14 15 28 14
14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Approve 62% 22% 89% 56% 59% 65% 54% 89% 81% Disapprove 32 70 7 38 36 28 40 7 17 DK/NA 6 8 3 6 4 7 6 3 2 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 74% 55% 57% 75% 51% Disapprove 21 39 37 20 41 DK/NA 5 6 6 5 7
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
Oct 21 Aug 16 Jun 24 Apr 6 Feb 19 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Approve 62 60 67 71 72 Disapprove 32 35 26 21 17 DK/NA 6 6 7 7 10
15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Approve 19% 13% 26% 13% 18% 19% 14% 35% 28% Disapprove 67 76 57 75 74 62 74 48 44 DK/NA 14 10 17 11 8 19 12 16 28 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 25% 13% 15% 24% 17% Disapprove 61 76 74 59 70 DK/NA 14 11 11 17 13
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job? (*Low app also 18% Jun 2009)
APPROVE...... DIS... High Low High Oct 21 Aug 18 Jun 22 Apr 6 Apr 4 Aug 18 Aug 18 2009 2009 2009 2009 2007 2009* 2009 Approve 19 18 18 26 34 18 18 Disapprove 67 72 69 58 43 72 72 DK/NA 14 10 13 16 23 10 10
16. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Andrew Cuomo is handling his job as State Attorney General?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Approve 71% 65% 80% 68% 73% 69% 72% 75% 61% Disapprove 11 17 5 13 14 8 12 9 7 DK/NA 18 18 15 19 12 23 16 16 32 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 78% 71% 72% 72% 68% Disapprove 9 11 11 10 11 DK/NA 13 18 17 18 21
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Andrew Cuomo is handling his job as State Attorney General?
APPROVE....... DIS... High Low High Oct 21 Aug 16 Jun 24 May 13 Feb 17 Feb 13 Jul 31 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2007 2007 Approve 71 74 73 68 76 42 68 Disapprove 11 10 12 12 11 16 19 DK/NA 18 17 14 20 13 42 14
17. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New York State today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Very satisfied 2% 2% 3% 2% 3% 2% 2% 4% 4% Smwht satisfied 28 15 42 19 25 31 23 39 41 Smwht dissatisfied 37 37 37 41 34 41 38 38 44 Very dissatisfied 31 45 17 37 39 25 37 17 11 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 - 2 1 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Very satisfied 3% 1% 2% 4% 1% Smwht satisfied 26 18 19 39 27 Smwht dissatisfied 33 37 36 35 43 Very dissatisfied 34 43 43 20 29 DK/NA 4 - 1 1 -
TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New York State today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
VERY+SMWHT SAT High Low Oct 21 Aug 18 Jun 22 Apr 7 Feb 18 Feb 25 Apr 7 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 1998 2009 Very satisfied 2 3 2 1 2 13 1 Smwht satisfied 28 25 26 24 29 60 24 Smwht dissatisfied 37 37 34 34 37 20 34 Very dissatisfied 31 34 37 40 31 7 40 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
18. Looking ahead to the 2010 election for governor, do you feel that David Paterson deserves to be elected to a full 4-year term, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be elected to a full 4-year term?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Yes/Deserves 23% 11% 32% 21% 27% 20% 17% 40% 37% No/Does not 63 81 53 66 63 64 71 43 47 DK/NA 13 7 15 13 11 16 12 17 15 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Yes/Deserves 33% 19% 20% 29% 20% No/Does not 53 70 68 56 68 DK/NA 14 11 12 15 12
TREND: Looking ahead to the 2010 election for governor, do you feel that David Paterson deserves to be elected to a full 4-year term, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be elected to a full 4-year term?
Oct 21 Aug 16 Jun 24 May 13 Apr 6 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Yes/Deserves 23 20 22 21 22 No/Does not 63 67 64 64 63 DK/NA 13 13 13 15 16
19. Do you think the Obama administration did the right thing or the wrong thing by asking Governor Paterson not to run for election next year?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk His Right thing 34% 27% 38% 33% 33% 35% 31% 35% 48% Wrong thing 52 65 45 53 54 50 57 43 36 DK/NA 15 8 17 14 13 16 13 22 16 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Right thing 34% 34% 34% 36% 29% Wrong thing 52 54 53 47 56 DK/NA 15 12 13 17 15