New York State (NY) Poll * June 21, 2006 * Faso Convention Bubble Goes Fl - Quinnipiac University

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June 21, 2006 - Faso Convention Bubble Goes Flat In Gov Race, Quinnipiac University New York State Poll Finds; Spitzer Still Has 40-Point Lead Over Faso, Suozzi

Republican John Faso has gained almost no ground on Democratic State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer in their race for New York Governor and now trails 66 - 20 percent, with 11 percent undecided, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
This compares to a 67 -16 percent Spitzer lead in a May 17 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.
In this latest survey, Republicans back Faso 46 - 35 percent, as Democrats back Spitzer 88 - 6 percent and independent voters line up with the Democrats 64 - 19 percent.
In a Democratic primary for Governor, Spitzer leads Nassau County Executive Thomas Suozzi 76 - 13 percent, compared to 73 - 13 percent May 17.
"John Faso's Republican Convention win and William Weld's decision to drop out of the Governor's race were supposed to give the Republican a bounce. But the GOP ball barely moved as Attorney General Spitzer keeps rolling along," said Maurice Carroll, Director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Faso has a hard time winning a majority of his fellow Republicans. About a third of them prefer Spitzer. Spitzer, meanwhile, is backed by 88 percent of his fellow Democrats. Just about everybody knows Spitzer and they like him. Just about nobody knows Suozzi or Faso. It's not that they're unpopular. It's that they're about as anonymous as a supposedly major candidate can be."
New York State voters approve 69 - 17 percent of the job Spitzer is doing as Attorney General and give him a 52 - 11 percent favorability rating, with 16 percent mixed and 20 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.
For Faso, 73 percent haven't heard enough to form an opinion. For Suozzi, 65 percent haven't heard enough.
New York State voters agree 28 - 23 percent with Democrats' claim that Faso is "out of the mainstream," while 49 percent are undecided. Republicans disagree 30 - 24 percent, with 46 percent undecided.
By a narrow 41 - 38 percent margin, voters disagree with a Republican charge that Spitzer will raise state taxes, with 21 percent undecided. But Republican and independent voters agree that Spitzer will raise taxes.
"To some extent, each candidate's main charge against the other guy is sticking: Republicans and independents believe Spitzer will raise taxes. Even a lot of Democrats think so. The charge that Faso is 'out of the mainstream' persuades a number of voters. But almost half don't know enough about him to agree or disagree," Carroll said.
Gov. George Pataki gets a negative 39- 45 percent approval rating, compared to 33 -55 percent May 17, his lowest ever.
Voters disapprove 51 - 30 percent of the way the State Legislature is doing its job. Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver gets a split 32 - 35 percent approval, with 33 percent undecided, while State Senate Majority Leader Joseph Bruno gets a negative 29 - 35 percent approval rating, with 36 percent undecided.
From June 12 - 19, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,204 New York State registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points. The survey includes 517 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percent.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida and nationwide as a public service and for research.
For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or call (203) 582-5201
1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Pataki is handling his job as Governor?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 39% 58% 32% 34% 41% 38% Disapprove 45 30 52 48 47 44 DK/NA 15 12 15 19 12 19 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 27% 38% 35% 38% 49% Disapprove 58 47 49 44 39 DK/NA 15 15 15 18 12
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Pataki is handling his job as Governor?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Jun 21 May 17 Mar 29 Jan 20 Dec 14 Oct 2 May 17 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 2001 2006 Approve 39 33 45 43 49 81 33 Disapprove 45 55 44 40 38 12 55 DK/NA 15 12 12 17 14 7 12
5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 30% 34% 29% 28% 28% 31% Disapprove 51 51 51 53 58 45 DK/NA 19 15 20 19 13 24 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 28% 27% 27% 28% 37% Disapprove 58 55 55 53 40 DK/NA 14 18 17 19 23
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
Jun 21 May 17 Mar 29 Jan 20 Dec 20 Dec 8 Sep 14 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 2004 2004 Approve 30 31 31 31 33 29 31 Disapprove 51 53 51 50 47 54 54 DK/NA 19 17 18 20 20 17 15
6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Eliot Spitzer is handling his job as State Attorney General?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 69% 56% 76% 68% 71% 67% Disapprove 17 26 13 17 18 16 DK/NA 14 19 11 16 11 18 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 75% 67% 69% 75% 58% Disapprove 14 16 15 12 27 DK/NA 11 17 16 13 14
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Eliot Spitzer is handling his job as State Attorney General?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Jun 21 May 17 Mar 29 Jan 19 Dec 14 Jun 21 Apr 6 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 2006 2000 Approve 69 66 66 64 68 69 51 Disapprove 17 21 18 18 13 17 14 DK/NA 14 14 16 18 19 14 35
7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Alan Hevesi is handling his job as State Comptroller?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 45% 41% 49% 44% 49% 41% Disapprove 18 18 18 19 20 17 DK/NA 37 41 33 37 32 42 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 40% 36% 37% 57% 42% Disapprove 18 15 15 19 22 DK/NA 42 50 48 24 37
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Alan Hevesi is handling his job as State Comptroller? * also 39% 4/23/2003
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Jun 21 May 17 Mar 29 Dec 8 Sep 14 Mar 29 Aug 11 2006 2006 2006 2004 2004 2006 2004 * Approve 45 46 47 41 42 47 39 Disapprove 18 17 15 17 18 15 19 DK/NA 37 36 38 42 39 38 42
8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Sheldon Silver is handling his job as State Assembly Speaker?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 32% 27% 40% 25% 34% 31% Disapprove 35 38 28 40 42 27 DK/NA 33 35 32 35 24 42 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 34% 27% 29% 38% 29% Disapprove 38 35 36 33 35 DK/NA 28 37 35 29 36
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Sheldon Silver is handling his job as State Assembly Speaker?
Jun 21 May 17 Mar 29 Dec 8 Sep 14 Aug 11 Jun 17 2006 2006 2006 2004 2004 2004 2004 Approve 32 30 33 31 29 26 30 Disapprove 35 37 33 31 33 33 31 DK/NA 33 33 34 38 38 41 38
9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joseph Bruno is handling his job as State Senate Majority Leader?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 29% 35% 25% 28% 28% 30% Disapprove 35 30 38 36 43 27 DK/NA 36 35 36 36 29 43 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 25% 31% 29% 29% 28% Disapprove 38 30 32 39 35 DK/NA 38 39 39 32 37
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joseph Bruno is handling his job as State Senate Majority Leader?
Jun 21 May 17 Mar 29 Dec 8 Sep 14 Aug 11 Jun 17 2006 2006 2006 2004 2004 2004 2004 Approve 29 30 31 26 30 27 29 Disapprove 35 38 35 32 30 32 32 DK/NA 36 33 35 41 40 41 40
10. Is your opinion of State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 52% 40% 62% 50% 55% 49% Unfavorable 11 18 6 9 14 8 Mixed 16 17 13 19 17 15 Hvn't hrd enough 20 24 18 21 13 27 REFUSED 1 1 1 - - 1 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Favorable 51% 46% 48% 60% 48% Unfavorable 7 12 11 8 16 Mixed 19 18 18 12 18 Hvn't hrd enough 22 24 23 19 16 REFUSED - - - 1 1
TREND: Is your opinion of State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? * did not include title "State Attorney General"
Jun 21 May 17 Mar 29 Jan 19 May 5 Jan 20 Oct 28 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 2000 1998 * Favorable 52 51 51 52 41 26 10 Unfavorable 11 11 11 10 8 7 8 Mixed 16 17 16 16 20 19 15 Hvn't heard enough 20 21 22 21 30 46 66 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 1 2 1
11. Is your opinion of former State Assembly Minority Leader John Faso favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 8% 11% 7% 8% 11% 5% Unfavorable 7 4 10 7 10 5 Mixed 11 10 11 9 10 11 Hvn't hrd enough 73 74 71 75 69 77 REFUSED 1 1 2 1 1 2 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Favorable 8% 5% 6% 10% 10% Unfavorable 12 4 6 10 7 Mixed 9 13 12 10 10 Hvn't hrd enough 71 79 77 68 73 REFUSED - - - 3 -
TREND: Is your opinion of former State Assembly Minority Leader John Faso favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Jun 21 May 17 Mar 29 Jan 19 2006 2006 2006 2006 Favorable 8 6 6 7 Unfavorable 7 6 4 6 Mixed 11 13 10 10 Hvn't heard enough 73 74 78 76 REFUSED 1 2 1 1
12. Is your opinion of Nassau County Executive Thomas Suozzi favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 15% 17% 14% 14% 21% 9% Unfavorable 10 10 12 9 11 9 Mixed 9 11 8 6 9 8 Hvn't hrd enough 65 61 65 69 57 72 REFUSED 2 1 2 2 1 2 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Favorable 12% 6% 8% 14% 30% Unfavorable 4 3 3 12 22 Mixed 7 5 5 8 15 Hvn't hrd enough 76 86 83 62 32 REFUSED 1 1 1 3 2
TREND: Is your opinion of Nassau County Executive Thomas Suozzi favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Jun 21 May 17 Mar 29 Jan 19 2006 2006 2006 2006 Favorable 15 15 19 11 Unfavorable 10 10 7 6 Mixed 9 12 12 8 Hvn't heard enough 65 62 61 73 REFUSED 2 1 1 1
13. If the 2006 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Eliot Spitzer the Democrat and John Faso the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Spitzer 66% 35% 88% 64% 65% 68% Faso 20 46 6 19 21 19 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 1 1 2 1 DK/NA 11 15 4 15 11 11 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Spitzer 75% 62% 65% 72% 59% Faso 10 20 18 19 26 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 1 2 2 DK/NA 13 15 15 6 11
TREND: If the 2006 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Eliot Spitzer the Democrat and John Faso the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Jun 21 May 17 Mar 29 Jan 19 Dec 14 Oct 4 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 Spitzer 66 67 66 61 64 60 Faso 20 16 18 19 14 14 SMONE ELSE 1 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE 2 2 2 2 1 1 DK/NA 11 14 13 18 21 23
14. If the 2006 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Thomas Suozzi the Democrat and John Faso the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Suozzi 41% 15% 64% 35% 41% 41% Faso 23 55 8 20 26 21 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 4 4 3 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 2 3 4 2 DK/NA 29 26 22 37 26 32 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Suozzi 52% 32% 37% 47% 39% Faso 16 26 24 17 33 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 3 3 5 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 3 3 1 DK/NA 25 36 33 27 25
TREND: If the 2006 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Thomas Suozzi and the Democrat and John Faso the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Jun 21 May 17 Mar 29 2006 2006 2006 Suozzi 41 46 47 Faso 23 19 19 SMONE ELSE 3 3 3 WLDN'T VOTE 3 5 4 DK/NA 29 28 27
32. (If registered Democrat) If the 2006 Democratic primary for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Thomas Suozzi and Eliot Spitzer, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED DEMOCRATS Suozzi 13% 14% 12% Spitzer 76 76 75 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - 1 DK/NA 10 9 11
TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the 2006 Democratic primary for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Tom Suozzi and Eliot Spitzer, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED DEMOCRATS.................. Jun 21 May 17 Mar 29 Jan 19 Dec 14 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 Suozzi 13 13 14 8 11 Spitzer 76 73 69 72 69 SMONE ELSE 1 - 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE - - 1 3 1 DK/NA 10 13 15 16 19
33. (If registered Democrat) When the Democratic party nominates its candidate for Governor, which quality do you think should be more important? - The candidate's ability to win the general election or the candidate's views on the issues?
REGISTERED DEMOCRATS Tot Men Wom Ability to win 15% 19% 11% Views on issues 82 77 86 DK/NA 3 4 3
TREND: (If registered Democrat) When the Democratic party nominates its candidate for Governor, which quality do you think should be more important? - The candidate's ability to win the general election, or the candidate's views on the issues?
REGISTERED DEMOCRATS Jun 21 May 17 2006 2006 Ability to win 15 9 Views on issues 82 88 DK/NA 3 3
34. (INTRO Q34a-34f ROTATED) How important are each of the following issues to your vote for Governor in the general election in November - Very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not important at all? 34a. How important is the New York state tax level to your vote for Governor in the general election in November - Very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not important at all?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Very important 73% 74% 70% 77% 71% 75% Smwht important 20 22 23 16 21 19 Not too important 3 1 4 4 4 3 Not important 2 2 1 2 2 2 DK/NA 2 2 2 1 2 2 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Very important 84% 75% 77% 67% 73% Smwht important 11 20 18 22 21 Not too important 3 2 2 4 4 Not important - 1 1 3 2 DK/NA 1 2 2 4 -
34b. How important is the budget impact of Medicaid to your vote for Governor in the general election in November - Very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not important at all?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Very important 62% 55% 69% 62% 58% 66% Smwht important 28 36 21 29 31 26 Not too important 5 6 6 5 7 4 Not important 2 1 2 2 3 1 DK/NA 3 3 2 3 2 3 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Very important 73% 62% 64% 64% 55% Smwht important 23 31 29 24 32 Not too important 3 5 5 5 8 Not important - - - 2 3 DK/NA 1 2 1 4 2
34c. How important is the structure of state school aid to your vote for Governor in the general election in November - Very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not important at all?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Very important 69% 63% 75% 65% 64% 73% Smwht important 22 25 19 26 26 19 Not too important 5 9 4 5 7 4 Not important 1 2 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 2 1 1 2 2 2 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Very important 68% 66% 67% 72% 67% Smwht important 23 26 26 18 23 Not too important 7 3 4 6 7 Not important 1 1 1 2 1 DK/NA 1 3 2 2 2
34d. How important is the way legislative district lines are drawn to your vote for Governor in the general election in November - Very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not important at all?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Very important 35% 30% 41% 32% 33% 36% Smwht important 33 32 32 35 31 34 Not too important 18 23 16 17 20 16 Not important 8 8 6 10 11 6 DK/NA 7 8 5 7 5 8 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Very important 36% 27% 29% 44% 31% Smwht important 35 35 35 34 26 Not too important 15 22 20 11 25 Not important 9 10 10 4 11 DK/NA 6 7 7 7 7
34e. How important is the perception Albany is dysfunctional to your vote for Governor in the general election in November - Very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not important at all?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Very important 49% 48% 52% 46% 50% 48% Smwht important 29 29 26 34 28 30 Not too important 10 13 9 9 11 10 Not important 7 6 7 7 8 6 DK/NA 4 4 5 3 2 6 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Very important 55% 49% 50% 51% 45% Smwht important 27 30 29 29 29 Not too important 13 9 10 10 12 Not important 5 7 7 7 8 DK/NA 1 5 4 4 5
34f. How important is abortion to your vote for Governor in the general election in November - Very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not important at all?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Very important 48% 43% 53% 44% 35% 59% Smwht important 22 27 18 24 25 20 Not too important 15 16 16 12 19 11 Not important 13 11 11 17 18 9 DK/NA 2 2 2 3 2 3 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Very important 42% 42% 42% 55% 47% Smwht important 17 26 24 19 24 Not too important 26 15 17 13 12 Not important 14 16 16 9 15 DK/NA 2 1 1 3 2
36. Democrats say John Faso is "out of the mainstream". Do you agree or disagree?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Agree 28% 24% 36% 24% 33% 25% Disagree 23 30 19 24 25 21 DK/NA 49 46 46 53 42 54 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Agree 26% 26% 26% 32% 27% Disagree 28 24 25 20 23 DK/NA 45 50 49 48 50
37. Republicans say Eliot Spitzer will raise state taxes. Do you agree or disagree?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Agree 38% 46% 31% 40% 44% 33% Disagree 41 31 52 36 39 43 DK/NA 21 23 17 24 17 24 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Agree 40% 37% 37% 37% 42% Disagree 44 40 41 45 34 DK/NA 16 24 22 18 24