New York State (NY) Poll * August 23, 2006 * Cuomo Tops Green By 13 Points - Quinnipiac University

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August 23, 2006 - Cuomo Tops Green By 13 Points Among Likely Dem Voters, Quinnipiac University New York State Poll Finds; Spitzer Has 4-1 Lead In Primary, General Election

Former Federal Housing Secretary Andrew Cuomo leads former New York City Public Advocate Mark Green 48 - 35 percent among New York State likely Democratic primary voters, including leaners, in the race for State Attorney General, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. No other candidate gets more than 5 percent.
Among registered voters, Cuomo is ahead 43 - 28 percent, compared to a 45 - 27 percent Cuomo lead in a June 22 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.
In this latest survey, 10 percent of likely voters are undecided and 50 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind before the September 12 primary.
Either Democrat leads former Westchester District Attorney Jeanine Pirro, the Republican candidate, among registered voters in a general election matchup: Cuomo leads Pirro 52 - 29 percent, while Green tops the Republican 47 - 31 percent.
"Andrew Cuomo has held his ground, while Mark Green's New York City support has helped him gain some ground. But can Green close an unlucky 13-point gap in three weeks?" asked Maurice Carroll, Director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"During the Democratic debate last week, there were warnings that a nasty primary could throw the November election to Republican Jeanine Pirro. But so far, she hasn't moved. Against either Cuomo or Green, she gets only the generic Republican one-third. But she must be storing up what the Democrats are saying about each other."
By a 32 - 19 percent margin, New York voters have a favorable opinion of Cuomo, with 26 percent mixed and 23 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion. Voters say 49 - 24 percent that Cuomo has the experience to be Attorney General.
Green gets a 24 - 13 percent favorability, with 18 percent mixed and 44 percent who haven't formed an opinion. Voters say 38 - 18 percent, with 44 percent undecided, that Green has the experience to be Attorney General.
Pirro has a split 19 - 18 percent favorability, with 16 percent mixed and 47 percent who haven't formed an opinion. She has the experience to be Attorney General, voters say 46 - 17 percent.
Governor's Race
In the Governor's race, Attorney General Eliot Spitzer has a 78 -15 percent lead over Nassau County Executive Thomas Suozzi among likely Democratic primary voters, including leaners. Among registered Democrats, Spitzer leads 72 - 13 percent, compared to 76 - 13 percent June 21.
In this latest survey, 7 percent of likely voters are undecided and 28 percent of voters who choose a candidate say they might change their mind by September 12.
In a general election matchup, Spitzer tops Republican candidate John Faso 65 - 17 percent among registered voters, compared to 66 - 20 percent June 21.
Suozzi also tops Faso 40 - 22 percent with 30 percent undecided.
"Ho hum. Attorney General Eliot Spitzer's bandwagon shows no signs of running out of gas. It's rolling along in both the September and November measures," Carroll said. "Faso is almost anonymous at this point, unknown to 78 percent of the voters."
From August 15 - 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,556 New York State registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points. The survey includes 464 likely Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percent.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida and nationwide as a public service and for research.
1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Pataki is handling his job as Governor?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 39% 55% 30% 41% 40% 37% Disapprove 46 29 58 44 47 46 DK/NA 15 16 12 15 14 17 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 31% 40% 38% 33% 48% Disapprove 59 44 46 52 37 DK/NA 10 16 15 15 15
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Pataki is handling his job as Governor?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Aug 23 Jun 21 May 17 Mar 29 Jan 20 Oct 2 May 17 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2001 2006 Approve 39 39 33 45 43 81 33 Disapprove 46 45 55 44 40 12 55 DK/NA 15 15 12 12 17 7 12
5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Eliot Spitzer is handling his job as State Attorney General?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 63% 54% 68% 67% 70% 56% Disapprove 17 21 15 17 17 17 DK/NA 20 26 18 16 13 27 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 61% 65% 64% 60% 66% Disapprove 11 16 15 18 20 DK/NA 27 19 20 23 15
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Eliot Spitzer is handling his job as State Attorney General?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Aug 23 Jun 21 May 17 Mar 29 Jan 19 Jun 21 Apr 6 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2000 Approve 63 69 66 66 64 69 51 Disapprove 17 17 21 18 18 17 14 DK/NA 20 14 14 16 18 14 35
6. Is your opinion of -- State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 50% 36% 57% 54% 56% 46% Unfavorable 8 13 5 9 10 6 Mixed 16 16 13 19 15 16 Hvn't hrd enough 26 34 26 18 19 32 REFUSED - - - - - - UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Favorable 42% 51% 49% 53% 48% Unfavorable 6 10 9 7 9 Mixed 14 15 15 15 18 Hvn't hrd enough 37 24 26 25 24 REFUSED - - - - -
TREND: Is your opinion of -- State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Aug 23 Jun 21 May 17 Mar 29 Jan 19 May 5 Jan 20 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 2000 Favorable 50 52 51 51 52 41 26 Unfavorable 8 11 11 11 10 8 7 Mixed 16 16 17 16 16 20 19 Hvn't heard enough 26 20 21 22 21 30 46 REFUSED - 1 1 - 1 1 2
7. Is your opinion of -- former state Assembly Minority Leader John Faso favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 7% 9% 7% 3% 9% 4% Unfavorable 6 3 7 8 8 4 Mixed 8 9 6 11 8 9 Hvn't hrd enough 78 78 79 78 74 82 REFUSED 1 1 2 - 1 1 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Favorable 11% 5% 6% 7% 6% Unfavorable 9 6 6 8 2 Mixed 7 10 9 9 4 Hvn't hrd enough 73 79 78 74 86 REFUSED - - - 1 1
TREND: Is your opinion of -- former state Assembly Minority Leader John Faso favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Aug 23 Jun 21 May 17 Mar 29 Jan 19 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 Favorable 7 8 6 6 7 Unfavorable 6 7 6 4 6 Mixed 8 11 13 10 10 Hvn't heard enough 78 73 74 78 76 REFUSED 1 1 2 1 1
8. Is your opinion of -- Nassau County Executive Thomas Suozzi favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 12% 10% 11% 12% 14% 9% Unfavorable 10 9 11 7 12 8 Mixed 10 12 10 10 9 11 Hvn't hrd enough 67 67 67 69 63 70 REFUSED 2 1 2 2 2 1 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Favorable 13% 6% 7% 11% 22% Unfavorable 5 5 5 10 17 Mixed 9 5 6 9 21 Hvn't hrd enough 72 83 81 68 38 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 3
TREND: Is your opinion of -- Nassau County Executive Thomas Suozzi favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Aug 23 Jun 21 May 17 Mar 29 Jan 19 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 Favorable 12 15 15 19 11 Unfavorable 10 10 10 7 6 Mixed 10 9 12 12 8 Hvn't heard enough 67 65 62 61 73 REFUSED 2 2 1 1 1
9. If the 2006 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Eliot Spitzer the Democrat and John Faso the Republican for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Spitzer 65% 33% 87% 65% 67% 64% Faso 17 42 4 14 18 15 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 3 2 2 DK/NA 15 23 7 16 12 18 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Spitzer 59% 62% 62% 74% 59% Faso 22 19 20 12 19 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 2 1 4 DK/NA 15 16 16 13 17
TREND: If the 2006 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Eliot Spitzer the Democrat and John Faso the Republican for whom would you vote?
Aug 23 Jun 21 May 17 Mar 29 Jan 19 Dec 14 Oct 4 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 Spitzer 65 66 67 66 61 64 60 Faso 17 20 16 18 19 14 14 SMONE ELSE 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 DK/NA 15 11 14 13 18 21 23
10. If the 2006 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Thomas Suozzi the Democrat and John Faso the Republican for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Suozzi 40% 13% 63% 33% 38% 41% Faso 22 54 7 18 24 19 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 3 3 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 3 5 8 6 4 DK/NA 30 29 23 37 28 33 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Suozzi 46% 29% 32% 48% 43% Faso 18 30 28 15 21 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 3 2 3 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 7 4 4 5 7 DK/NA 28 36 34 29 26
TREND: If the 2006 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Thomas Suozzi the Democrat and John Faso the Republican for whom would you vote?
Aug 23 Jun 21 May 17 Mar 29 2006 2006 2006 2006 Suozzi 40 41 46 47 Faso 22 23 19 19 SMONE ELSE 3 3 3 3 WLDN'T VOTE 5 3 5 4 DK/NA 30 29 28 27
16. Is your opinion of -- former Westchester County District Attorney Jeanine Pirro favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about her?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 19% 30% 12% 22% 19% 18% Unfavorable 18 9 22 19 22 14 Mixed 16 13 17 18 17 16 Hvn't hrd enough 47 48 48 41 41 52 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1 1 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Favorable 13% 18% 17% 15% 28% Unfavorable 9 13 12 27 15 Mixed 13 12 12 19 20 Hvn't hrd enough 66 57 58 39 36 REFUSED - 1 - 1 1
TREND: Is your opinion of -- former Westchester County District Attorney Jeanine Pirro favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about her? (* did not include "former")
Aug 23 Jun 22 May 18 Mar 30 Jan 20 May 5 2006 2006 2006 2006* 2006* 2005* Favorable 19 18 15 16 18 17 Unfavorable 18 17 17 18 17 4 Mixed 16 13 13 14 16 10 Hvn't heard enough 47 52 53 52 48 68 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1
17. Is your opinion of -- former New York City Public Advocate Mark Green favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 24% 11% 34% 20% 29% 20% Unfavorable 13 22 7 16 17 10 Mixed 18 13 21 19 16 20 Hvn't hrd enough 44 53 38 44 38 49 REFUSED 1 - - 1 - 1 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Favorable 7% 13% 12% 37% 27% Unfavorable 3 8 7 17 20 Mixed 10 10 10 26 20 Hvn't hrd enough 79 68 70 19 33 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1
TREND: Is your opinion of -- former New York City Public Advocate Mark Green favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him? (* did not include "former")
Aug 23 Jun 22 May 18 Mar 30 Jan 20 Jun 18 Mar 26 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 1998* 1998* Favorable 24 22 21 22 21 28 29 Unfavorable 13 12 12 11 12 6 7 Mixed 18 19 18 16 19 14 9 Hvn't heard enough 44 47 48 51 47 51 54 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 - 1
18. Is your opinion of -- former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Andrew Cuomo favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 32% 25% 41% 25% 32% 31% Unfavorable 19 31 10 23 23 15 Mixed 26 22 26 31 25 27 Hvn't hrd enough 23 21 23 22 19 26 REFUSED 1 1 - - - 1 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Favorable 25% 28% 27% 38% 31% Unfavorable 14 21 20 16 22 Mixed 30 28 28 26 21 Hvn't hrd enough 31 23 24 19 25 REFUSED - - - 1 1
TREND: Is your opinion of -- former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Andrew Cuomo favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Aug 24 Jun 22 May 18 Mar 30 Jan 20 Jul 2 May 1 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2002 2002 Favorable 32 27 27 24 24 16 15 Unfavorable 19 19 20 18 21 24 28 Mixed 26 24 23 23 26 22 17 Hvn't heard enough 23 30 30 34 28 37 39 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 1 1 1
19. If the election for State Attorney General were being held today, and the candidates were Andrew Cuomo the Democrat and Jeanine Pirro the Republican for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Cuomo 52% 22% 77% 43% 50% 54% Pirro 29 57 11 36 33 25 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 3 3 2 3 DK/NA 15 19 8 17 13 17 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Cuomo 43% 46% 45% 63% 49% Pirro 30 35 34 21 32 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 2 2 2 5 DK/NA 23 17 18 12 13
TREND: If the election for State Attorney General were being held today and the candidates were Andrew Cuomo the Democrat and Jeanine Pirro the Republican for whom would you vote?
Aug 23 Jun 22 May 18 Mar 30 Jan 20 Dec 14 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 Cuomo 52 51 49 51 48 49 Pirro 29 31 33 31 33 32 SMONE ELSE 1 1 2 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE 3 4 2 2 3 2 DK/NA 15 13 14 14 13 16
20. If the election for State Attorney General were being held today, and the candidates were Mark Green the Democrat and Jeanine Pirro the Republican for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Green 47% 12% 73% 39% 48% 46% Pirro 31 66 12 34 32 29 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 3 4 3 4 DK/NA 18 19 12 21 16 20 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Green 39% 34% 35% 67% 40% Pirro 32 37 36 19 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 6 2 3 3 4 DK/NA 22 26 26 10 16
TREND: If the election for State Attorney General were being held today, and the candidates were Mark Green the Democrat and Jeanine Pirro the Republican for whom would you vote?
Aug 23 Jun 22 May 18 Mar 30 Jan 20 Dec 14 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 Green 47 46 46 47 42 43 Pirro 31 32 33 31 35 35 SMONE ELSE 1 2 1 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE 3 4 2 3 3 2 DK/NA 18 17 18 18 19 18
22. (If registered democrat) If the 2006 Democratic primary for state Attorney General were being held today and the candidates were Mark Green, Andrew Cuomo, Charlie King, and Sean Patrick Maloney for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED DEMOCRATS....................... Tot Men Wom UpState NYC Sub Green 28% 31% 26% 13% 38% 32% Cuomo 43 42 43 53 37 38 King 1 1 2 - 2 1 Maloney 4 5 3 8 2 4 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 2 3 3 1 DK/NA 20 17 23 22 17 24
TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the 2006 Democratic primary for State Attorney General were being held today and the candidates were Mark Green, Andrew Cuomo, Charlie King, Denise O'Donnell, Richard Brodsky and Sean Patrick Maloney for whom would you vote? (na = not asked)
REGISTERED DEMOCRATS.......... Aug 23 Jun 22 May 18 Mar 30 2006 2006 2006 2006 Green 28 27 26 25 Cuomo 43 45 34 37 King 1 1 2 1 Maloney 4 5 3 3 O'Donnell na na 2 3 Brodsky na na 2 2 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 1 DK/NA 20 20 28 26
22. (If registered democrat) If the 2006 Democratic primary for state Attorney General were being held today and the candidates were Mark Green, Andrew Cuomo, Charlie King and Sean Patrick Maloney for whom would you vote? (If undecided q22) As of today, do you lean more toward Green, Cuomo, King or Maloney? This table includes Leaners.
LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS........... Tot Men Wom UpState NYC Sub Green 35% 39% 31% 17% 42% 41% Cuomo 48 46 50 64 43 39 King 2 1 2 1 3 - Maloney 5 4 5 8 3 6 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 10 9 10 8 10 13
22a. (If candidate choice on q22) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?
LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS CAND OF CHOICE Q22 Tot MG AC Made up 49% 50% 49% Might change 50 50 49 DK/NA 1 - 2
23. (If registered democrat) If the 2006 Democratic primary for governor were being held today and the candidates were Thomas Suozzi and Eliot Spitzer for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED DEMOCRATS....................... Tot Men Wom UpState NYC Sub Suozzi 13% 12% 13% 10% 12% 17% Spitzer 72 78 68 74 73 68 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 1 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 - - - - DK/NA 14 9 19 14 14 15
TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the 2006 Democratic primary for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Thomas Suozzi and Eliot Spitzer for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED DEMOCRATS.......................... Aug 23 Jun 21 May 17 Mar 29 Jan 19 Dec 14 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 Suozzi 13 13 13 14 8 11 Spitzer 72 76 73 69 72 69 SMONE ELSE - 1 - 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE - - - 1 3 1 DK/NA 14 10 13 15 16 19
23. (If registered democrat) If the 2006 Democratic primary for governor were being held today and the candidates were Thomas Suozzi and Eliot Spitzer for whom would you vote? (If undecided q23) As of today, do you lean more toward Suozzi or Spitzer? This table includes Leaners.
LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS........... Tot Men Wom UpState NYC Sub Suozzi 15% 14% 16% 13% 17% 15% Spitzer 78 82 74 82 74 80 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 7 4 10 5 9 6
23a. (If candidate choice on q23) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?
LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS CAND OF CHOICE Q23 Tot TS ES Made up 71% 54% 74% Might change 28 39 26 DK/NA 1 7 -
25. Do you think -- Andrew Cuomo has the right kind of experience to be Attorney General or not?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 49% 37% 61% 44% 51% 47% No 24 34 13 32 28 20 DK/NA 27 30 26 23 21 33 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Yes 43% 44% 44% 54% 50% No 20 28 27 19 25 DK/NA 36 27 29 27 25
26. Do you think -- Mark Green has the right kind of experience to be Attorney General or not?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 38% 23% 49% 33% 42% 34% No 18 25 12 22 20 17 DK/NA 44 52 38 45 39 49 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Yes 16% 26% 24% 53% 39% No 17 13 14 19 25 DK/NA 67 61 62 28 36
27. Do you think -- Charlie King has the right kind of experience to be Attorney General or not?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 9% 7% 10% 8% 11% 7% No 15 13 18 13 16 14 DK/NA 76 80 71 79 73 79 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Yes 11% 7% 8% 10% 9% No 16 14 14 17 13 DK/NA 73 79 78 72 78
28. Do you think -- Sean Patrick Maloney has the right kind of experience to be Attorney General or not?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 10% 8% 13% 11% 13% 8% No 15 11 18 13 16 13 DK/NA 75 81 70 76 71 79 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Yes 13% 10% 10% 11% 9% No 13 13 13 19 11 DK/NA 74 78 77 70 80
29. Do you think -- Jeanine Pirro has the right kind of experience to be Attorney General or not?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 46% 55% 40% 52% 49% 43% No 17 9 23 14 20 14 DK/NA 37 35 38 35 31 43 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Yes 35% 42% 41% 45% 56% No 18 15 16 20 15 DK/NA 47 42 43 35 29