New York State (NY) Poll * October 4, 2006 * Spitzer Buries Unknown Faso Mo - Quinnipiac University

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October 4, 2006 - Spitzer Buries Unknown Faso More Than 3-1 In Gov Race, Quinnipiac University New York State Poll Finds; Hevesi Little Known, But Tops GOP Challenger 3-1

In their race for New York Governor, State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer leads Republican candidate John Faso 73 - 21 percent among likely voters, including leaners, with 5 percent undecided, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
Among registered voters, Spitzer leads 69 - 18 percent. This compares to a 65 -17 percent Spitzer lead in an August 23 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe- ack) University.
In this latest survey, Republican likely voters back Faso 54 - 40 percent, as Democrats back Spitzer 94 - 3 percent and independent voters line up with the Democrat 75 - 18 percent.
New York State voters approve 65 - 18 percent of the job Spitzer is doing as Attorney General and give him a 49 - 9 percent favorability, with 17 percent mixed and 24 percent who don't know enough to form an opinion.
For Faso, 73 percent don't know enough to form an opinion.
"The big number in Spitzer vs. Faso isn't really the wipe-out depicted in the vote - it's Faso's Anonymity Quotient. Voters don't dislike him. Three out of four voters just don't know much about him," said Maurice Carroll, Director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
Spitzer's eight years as Attorney General give him the experience needed to fix New York State government, 63 percent of voters say, while 17 percent say his time in Albany makes him part of the problem.
"New Yorkers apparently identify Spitzer as the sheriff of Wall Street, not as part of the dysfunctional Albany government. Almost two-thirds of them think his AG experience qualifies him to be governor," Carroll said. State Comptroller's Race
New York State Comptroller Alan Hevesi, a Democrat, leads Republican challenger J. Christopher Callaghan 59 - 21 percent among likely voters.
Hevesi gets only a 37 - 23 percent job approval rating and a 23 - 8 percent favorability, with 21 percent mixed and 47 percent who haven't heard enough about him to form an opinion.
But Callaghan is virtually unknown, with 88 percent of voters saying they don't know enough about him to form an opinion.
"If the news about Comptroller Hevesi charging his wife's chauffeur to the state had come earlier, it might have made for an interesting race, but Callaghan is about as anonymous as a state candidate can be," Carroll said.
From September 26 - October 1, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,627 New York State registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. The survey includes 1,263 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research.
For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or call (203) 582-5201
1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Pataki is handling his job as Governor?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 44% 61% 33% 46% 43% 44% Disapprove 43 30 53 42 45 42 DK/NA 13 9 14 13 12 14 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 32% 38% 37% 41% 61% Disapprove 60 51 53 43 26 DK/NA 8 11 10 16 13
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Pataki is handling his job as Governor?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Oct 4 Aug 23 Jun 21 May 17 Mar 29 Oct 2 May 17 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2001 2006 Approve 44 39 39 33 45 81 33 Disapprove 43 46 45 55 44 12 55 DK/NA 13 15 15 12 12 7 12
5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Eliot Spitzer is handling his job as State Attorney General?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 65% 55% 71% 65% 70% 61% Disapprove 18 28 15 16 18 19 DK/NA 17 17 15 19 12 20 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 75% 64% 66% 64% 64% Disapprove 19 20 20 18 18 DK/NA 6 16 14 18 18
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Eliot Spitzer is handling his job as State Attorney General?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Oct 4 Aug 23 Jun 21 May 17 Mar 29 Jun 21 Apr 6 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2000 Approve 65 63 69 66 66 69 51 Disapprove 18 17 17 21 18 17 14 DK/NA 17 20 14 14 16 14 35
6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Alan Hevesi is handling his job as State Comptroller?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 37% 34% 42% 33% 37% 37% Disapprove 23 26 19 24 25 20 DK/NA 40 40 39 44 37 43 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 44% 29% 32% 43% 38% Disapprove 27 25 26 22 18 DK/NA 29 45 43 36 44
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Alan Hevesi is handling his job as State Comptroller?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Oct 4 Jun 21 May 17 Mar 29 Dec 8 Mar 29 Oct 4 2006 2006 2006 2006 2004 2006 2006 Approve 37 45 46 47 41 47 37 Disapprove 23 18 17 15 17 15 23 DK/NA 40 37 36 38 42 38 40
7. Is your opinion of State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Likely Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Voters Favorable 49% 39% 59% 49% 55% 45% 57% Unfavorable 9 19 3 7 10 8 10 Mixed 17 19 14 18 16 19 17 Hvn't hrd enough 24 23 23 25 19 27 16 REFUSED 1 - - - 1 - - UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Favorable 51% 49% 49% 51% 48% Unfavorable 11 12 12 6 8 Mixed 6 20 17 17 18 Hvn't hrd enough 31 19 21 26 26 REFUSED 2 1 1 - 1
TREND: Is your opinion of State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Oct 4 Aug 23 Jun 21 May 17 Mar 29 Jan 19 May 5 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 Favorable 49 50 52 51 51 52 41 Unfavorable 9 8 11 11 11 10 8 Mixed 17 16 16 17 16 16 20 Hvn't heard enough 24 26 20 21 22 21 30 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 - 1 1
8. Is your opinion of former state Assembly Minority Leader John Faso favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Likely Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Voters Favorable 9% 11% 7% 9% 12% 6% 11% Unfavorable 7 2 12 6 10 6 9 Mixed 9 8 9 9 8 10 10 Hvn't hrd enough 73 77 71 75 68 78 70 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Favorable 7% 10% 9% 7% 10% Unfavorable 5 8 8 8 6 Mixed 17 9 10 8 8 Hvn't hrd enough 71 72 72 75 74 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1
TREND: Is your opinion of former state Assembly Minority Leader John Faso favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Oct 4 Aug 23 Jun 21 May 17 Mar 29 Jan 19 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 Favorable 9 7 8 6 6 7 Unfavorable 7 6 7 6 4 6 Mixed 9 8 11 13 10 10 Hvn't heard enough 73 78 73 74 78 76 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 1 1
8. If the 2006 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Eliot Spitzer the Democrat and John Faso the Republican for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Spitzer 69% 41% 90% 67% 68% 70% Faso 18 47 2 14 21 15 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 4 3 1 DK/NA 10 11 6 14 7 13 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Spitzer 73% 64% 65% 76% 64% Faso 15 21 20 11 23 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 3 1 DK/NA 8 12 11 9 11
TREND: If the 2006 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Eliot Spitzer the Democrat and John Faso the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Oct 4 Aug 23 Jun 21 May 17 Mar 29 Jan 19 Dec 14 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 Spitzer 69 65 66 67 66 61 64 Faso 18 17 20 16 18 19 14 SMONE ELSE 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 DK/NA 10 15 11 14 13 18 21
8. If the 2006 election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Eliot Spitzer the Democrat and John Faso the Republican for whom would you vote?(If undecided q8) As of today, do you lean more toward Spitzer or Faso? This table includes Leaners.
LIKELY VOTERS............................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Spitzer 73% 40% 94% 75% 71% 75% Faso 21 54 3 18 25 19 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 5 6 3 7 4 6 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Spitzer 78% 69% 71% 80% 67% Faso 20 25 24 14 27 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - DK/NA 3 5 5 5 6
8b. (If candidate choice q8) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY CHOOSING CAND Q8.. CAND OF CHOICE Q8 Tot ES JF Made up 69% 71% 59% Might change 30 27 40 DK/NA 1 1 1
15. Is your opinion of State Comptroller Alan Hevesi favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Likely Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Voters Favorable 23% 17% 29% 22% 26% 22% 27% Unfavorable 8 12 5 9 10 7 10 Mixed 21 18 20 23 20 21 22 Hvn't hrd enough 47 53 45 46 43 50 41 REFUSED - - 1 - 1 - - UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Favorable 17% 16% 16% 31% 26% Unfavorable 8 9 9 8 7 Mixed 20 19 19 22 21 Hvn't hrd enough 55 55 55 39 45 REFUSED - 1 1 - 1
16. Is your opinion of former Saratoga County treasurer Christopher Callaghan favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Likely Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Voters Favorable 4% 6% 4% 4% 6% 3% 5% Unfavorable 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 Mixed 6 4 7 4 6 6 6 Hvn't hrd enough 88 87 86 90 85 89 87 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 2 - 1 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Favorable 6% 4% 4% 5% 3% Unfavorable 3 1 1 2 1 Mixed 6 5 5 7 3 Hvn't hrd enough 85 89 89 84 92 REFUSED - 1 - 2 0
17. If the election for State Comptroller were being held today, and the candidates were Alan Hevesi the Democrat and Christopher Callaghan the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Hevesi 51% 24% 74% 44% 51% 51% Callaghan 18 42 3 18 20 16 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 3 5 4 4 DK/NA 26 29 20 32 24 28 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Hevesi 45% 41% 42% 62% 51% Callaghan 19 22 21 12 20 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 8 5 5 4 1 DK/NA 28 31 31 22 26
17. If the election for State Comptroller were being held today, and the candidates were Alan Hevesi Democrat and Christopher Callaghan the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided q17) As of today, do you lean more toward Hevesi or Callaghan? This table includes Leaners.
LIKELY VOTERS............................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Hevesi 59% 29% 80% 56% 60% 59% Callaghan 21 50 4 21 21 21 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 - 1 1 DK/NA 18 19 14 22 18 18 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Hevesi 55% 49% 50% 72% 58% Callaghan 24 26 26 14 23 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 - - DK/NA 19 23 22 13 19
17b. (If candidate choice q17) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY CHOOSING CAND Q17.. CAND OF CHOICE Q17 Tot AH CC Made up 58% 59% 53% Might change 41 40 45 DK/NA 1 1 1
18. Which comes closer to your point of view -- A) Elliot Spitzer's years as Attorney General give him the experience necessary to fix New York State government. OR B) Elliot Spitzer's years as Attorney General make him part of the problem in New York State government.
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom A) ES can fix NY gov problem 63% 49% 74% 63% 65% 61% B) ES is part of NY gov problem 17 24 11 20 19 16 NO PROBLEMS(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 1 DK/NA 19 26 15 16 15 22 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub A) ES can fix NY gov problem 63% 59% 60% 66% 63% B) ES is part of NY gov problem 17 23 22 15 13 NO PROBLEMS(VOL) - 2 1 1 - DK/NA 20 16 17 19 23