New York State (NY) Poll * October 19, 2006 * Cuomo Leads Pirro 55 - 34% Amo - Quinnipiac University

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October 19, 2006 - Cuomo Leads Pirro 55 - 34% Among Likely Voters, Quinnipiac University New York State Poll Finds; Gop Challenger Gains No Ground On Clinton

Former Federal Housing Secretary Andrew Cuomo, the Democrat, leads former Westchester District Attorney Jeanine Pirro, the Republican, 55 - 34 percent among likely voters in the New York State Attorney General's race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Ten percent of voters remain undecided and 21 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind.
This compares to a 56 - 37 percent Cuomo lead in an October 5 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.
In today's survey, Cuomo leads 57 - 31 percent among women voters, compared to 60 - 33 percent October 5, and 53 - 38 percent among men, compared to 51 - 42 percent.
"You have to give Jeanine Pirro credit for being a battler, but Andrew Cuomo seems to be unstoppable in his march to the Attorney General's office," said Maurice Carroll, Director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Pirro's domestic difficulties seem to have no impact on how men and women voters look at this race. Men tend to be more Republican than women, or in this case, slightly less Democratic.
"New Yorkers like their Attorney General to be the sheriff of Wall Street: 80 percent of likely voters want Eliot Spitzer's successor to stay on the attack."
In the U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Republican challenger John Spencer 65 - 30 percent, with 5 percent undecided and 9 percent of those naming a candidate who might change their mind before Election Day.
This is virtually unchanged from a 66 - 31 percent Clinton lead October 5.
"John Spencer gets the standard Republican one-third in his bid to unseat Sen. Hillary Clinton. But barring some cataclysmic reversal, Clinton-for-President can start cranking up for real on November 8," Carroll said.
President Bush's Approval
New York State voters disapprove 64 - 29 percent of the job President George W. Bush is doing.
Because of the Bush Administration record, 45 percent of voters are less likely to back Republican candidates in New York races, with 11 percent who say they are more likely and 42 percent who say this won't affect their vote.
Looking at the controversy involving former U.S. Rep. Mark Foley, 64 percent of voters say this won't affect how they vote for candidates in New York.
"Will New York have the standard 29 Congressional elections or one big referendum on President Bush? The President's job approval remains abysmal in this oh- so-blue state and a sizable plurality of voters, mostly Democrats, of course, say they'll take it into account," Carroll said.
"The Mark Foley scandal doesn't seem as likely to spill over to other elections - except maybe, politicians wonder, in Buffalo."
From October 11 - 16, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,053 New York State likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percent.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research.
For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or call (203) 582-5201
4. If the 2006 election for senator were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat and John Spencer the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided q4) As of today, do you lean more toward Clinton or Spencer? This table includes Leaners.
LIKELY VOTERS............................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Clinton 65% 18% 94% 67% 60% 70% Spencer 30 77 4 25 36 25 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 5 5 2 7 4 5 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Clinton 74% 57% 61% 76% 56% Spencer 22 36 33 20 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - DK/NA 4 6 6 3 5
TREND: If the 2006 election for senator were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat and John Spencer the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Clinton or Spencer? This table includes Leaners.
LIKELY VOTERS Oct 19 Oct 5 2006 2006 Clinton 65 66 Spencer 30 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - DK/NA 5 3
4a. (If candidate chosen q4) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY CHOOSING CAND Q4.. CAND OF CHOICE Q4 Tot HC JS Made up 91% 91% 92% Might change 9 9 8 DK/NA - - -
TREND: (If candidate choice) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS Oct 19 Oct 5 2006 2006 Made up 91 85 Might change 9 14 DK/NA - 1
5. If the election for State Attorney General were being held today and the candidates were Andrew Cuomo the Democrat and Jeanine Pirro the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q5) As of today, do you lean more toward Cuomo or Pirro? This table includes Leaners.
LIKELY VOTERS............................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Cuomo 55% 21% 80% 53% 53% 57% Pirro 34 69 13 34 38 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 10 10 6 12 8 11 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Cuomo 66% 48% 52% 67% 44% Pirro 21 39 35 23 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - DK/NA 13 13 13 8 7
TREND: If the election for State Attorney General were being held today and the candidates were Andrew Cuomo the Democrat and Jeanine Pirro the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Cuomo or Pirro? This table includes Leaners.
LIKELY VOTERS Oct 19 Oct 5 2006 2006 Cuomo 55 56 Pirro 34 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - DK/NA 10 6
5a. (If candidate chosen q5) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY CHOOSING CAND Q5.. CAND OF CHOICE Q5 Tot AC JP Made up 77% 77% 78% Might change 21 21 22 DK/NA 2 2 1
TREND: (If candidate choice) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS Oct 19 Oct 5 2006 2006 Made up 77 74 Might change 21 25 DK/NA 2 1
7. Regardless of how you intend to vote for State Attorney General this year; would you like to see the investigations of Wall Street activities that Spitzer started, continued by the new Attorney General or not?
LIKELY VOTERS............................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 80% 69% 87% 80% 82% 77% No 12 20 6 12 12 12 DK/NA 9 11 7 8 5 11 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Yes 75% 81% 80% 80% 79% No 17 12 13 11 12 DK/NA 8 7 7 9 9
9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
LIKELY VOTERS............................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 29% 64% 11% 23% 34% 25% Disapprove 64 28 85 69 60 67 DK/NA 7 8 5 8 6 7 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub Approve 27% 34% 33% 22% 35% Disapprove 70 59 61 69 60 DK/NA 3 7 6 8 5
10. Does the record of the Bush administration make you more likely to vote for Republican candidates in New York, less likely, or doesn't it make a difference?
LIKELY VOTERS............................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom More likely 11% 28% 2% 6% 12% 10% Less likely 45 8 69 48 44 46 Doesn't make dif 42 61 27 44 42 41 DK/NA 2 2 2 1 2 3 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub More likely 7% 12% 11% 9% 13% Less likely 47 39 41 55 37 Doesn't make dif 45 46 46 33 48 DK/NA 2 2 2 3 2
11. Does the controversy over former Representative Mark Foley make you more likely to vote for Republican candidates in New York, less likely, or doesn't it make a difference?
LIKELY VOTERS............................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom More likely 3% 5% 1% 3% 2% 3% Less likely 30 6 44 32 29 30 Doesn't make dif 64 85 50 63 65 62 DK/NA 4 3 5 2 3 4 UpState..... UpState Urban Othr Total NYC Sub More likely 6% 4% 5% 2% 1% Less likely 28 27 27 32 31 Doesn't make dif 58 67 65 61 66 DK/NA 7 3 4 5 2