Ohio (OH) Poll * January 30, 2007 * Clinton Inches Ahead Of Giulia - Quinnipiac University

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January 30, 2007 - Clinton Inches Ahead Of Giuliani, McCain In Ohio, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; But She Has Higher Negative Ratings

Sen. Hillary Clinton holds a three-to-one lead over any Democrat and has a razor-thin lead over leading Republican presidential candidates in the key state of Ohio, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
In general election matchups, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds:
Sen. Clinton squeaks by Arizona Sen. John McCain 46 - 42 percent; Clinton inches by former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani 46 - 43 percent; Clinton tops former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney 52 - 31 percent; McCain edges Illinois Sen. Barack Obama 41 - 38 percent; Former Vice Presidential candidate John Edwards edges McCain 44 - 41 percent.
Giuliani leads McCain 30 - 22 percent among Ohio Republicans. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich gets 11 percent and Romney gets 4 percent.
Among Ohio Democrats, 38 percent pick Clinton, followed by 13 percent for Obama, 11 percent for Edwards and 6 percent for former Vice President Al Gore.
"Those who say Sen. Hillary Clinton can't win the White House because she can't win a key swing state like Ohio might rethink their assumption," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "While it's a long way - 21 months - to Election Day, these numbers indicate that at this point she is very competitive in Ohio."
Among the top contenders, Sen. Clinton has by far the largest bloc of voters who don't like her, with a 49 - 38 percent favorability. By comparison, Obama's favorability is 35 - 12 percent, but 52 percent say they don't know enough to form an opinion. Edwards gets a 46 - 24 percent favorability.
Among the Republicans, Giuliani gets a 53 - 19 percent favorability, while McCain has a 47 - 21 percent rating. Gingrich has twice as many voters, 50 percent, who view him unfavorably, as the 24 percent who view him favorably. For Romney, 80 percent don't know enough to form an opinion.
"Given their stronger overall image, Mayor Giuliani and Sen. McCain would seem to have the potential to improve their standing. That might be much more difficult for Sen. Clinton because of the larger number of voters who don't like her," said Brown. "Nevertheless, her showing in Ohio at this point is likely to be seen as a boon for her campaign in convincing the 'Hillary can't win' crowd that they are wrong."
Ohio's own Dennis Kucinich, a congressman who represents a Cleveland district and is considered a long-shot for the Democratic nomination, gets 2 percent in a primary contest and overall is viewed negatively by more than twice as many Ohioans as positively, 37 - 18 percent.
New Jersey Results
A January 25 Quinnipiac University poll of New Jersey voters showed Giuliani beating Clinton 48 - 41 percent and McCain with 44 percent to Clinton's 43 percent.
From January 23 - 28, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,305 Ohio voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. The survey includes 455 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points and 496 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and click on Institutes and Centers, or call (203) 582-5201.
1. If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Al Gore, John Kerry, Joe Biden, John Edwards, Bill Richardson, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Chris Dodd, Wesley Clark, Tom Vilsack and Dennis Kucinich for whom would you vote?
Tot Men Wom Gore 6% 7% 6% Kerry 6 6 6 Biden 2 3 1 Edwards 11 14 10 Richardson 1 2 1 Clinton 38 31 43 Obama 13 17 11 Dodd - - - Clark 1 2 - Vilsack - - - Kucinich 2 3 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 DK/NA 17 12 21
2. If the 2008 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Duncan Hunter, Sam Brownback, Tommy Thompson, Jim Gilmore, Chuck Hagel, Mike Huckabee, George Pataki and Tom Tancredo for whom would you vote?
Tot Men Wom Giuliani 30% 35% 27% McCain 22 23 21 Romney 4 3 5 Gingrich 11 15 7 Hunter - - - Brownback 1 1 2 Thompson 1 1 1 Gilmore - 1 - Hagel 1 1 1 Huckabee 1 1 1 Pataki 1 3 - Tancredo 1 1 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 5 5 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 DK/NA 19 9 28
3. If the 2008 election for President were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Clinton 46% 5% 85% 38% 41% 50% 35% Giuliani 43 89 8 43 47 39 55 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 3 3 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 4 2 2 2 DK/NA 8 4 5 13 7 8 7 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Clinton 38% 52% 41% 54% 42% 42% Giuliani 49 37 48 31 47 51 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 3 2 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 4 1 1 DK/NA 8 7 8 10 9 6 VOTED 2004.. Kerry Bush Clinton 80% 11% Giuliani 10 80 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 3 DK/NA 7 5
4. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Clinton 52% 10% 89% 47% 47% 56% 42% Romney 31 76 3 24 36 28 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 5 3 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 2 4 3 4 4 DK/NA 12 9 5 20 12 12 12 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Clinton 50% 57% 48% 57% 46% 44% Romney 29 28 34 27 33 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 4 2 1 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 3 1 4 4 2 DK/NA 13 11 16 11 14 9 VOTED 2004.. Kerry Bush Clinton 85% 17% Romney 4 65 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 5 DK/NA 7 12
5. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Clinton 46% 7% 85% 37% 41% 51% 38% McCain 42 85 9 41 47 37 52 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 4 3 1 0 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 4 2 2 3 DK/NA 8 5 4 15 7 9 7 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Clinton 43% 51% 41% 54% 41% 40% McCain 42 37 42 31 46 53 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 4 3 3 3 DK/NA 10 7 12 11 10 3 VOTED 2004.. Kerry Bush Clinton 78% 13% McCain 12 77 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 3 DK/NA 7 7
6. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Obama 38% 7% 66% 35% 37% 39% 28% McCain 41 77 15 39 44 38 50 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 3 4 4 2 1 DK/NA 18 13 15 22 15 20 20 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Obama 36% 42% 35% 42% 32% 37% McCain 44 37 40 35 44 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - - 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 2 - 3 3 DK/NA 17 18 22 22 19 12 VOTED 2004.. Kerry Bush Obama 67% 13% McCain 16 67 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 DK/NA 15 17
7. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were John Edwards the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Edwards 44% 6% 77% 43% 40% 48% 34% McCain 41 84 13 34 46 36 53 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 3 3 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 3 3 1 2 DK/NA 11 8 7 17 9 13 11 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Edwards 38% 50% 40% 53% 41% 38% McCain 43 39 47 26 41 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 2 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 1 1 2 2 4 DK/NA 12 9 10 16 13 12 VOTED 2004.. Kerry Bush Edwards 77% 13% McCain 12 72 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 DK/NA 8 11
8. Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 49% 12% 83% 43% 43% 54% 39% Unfavorable 38 77 7 40 44 33 49 Hvn't hrd enough 10 9 8 13 10 10 11 REFUSED 3 2 2 4 2 3 1
9. Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 35% 21% 50% 31% 37% 34% 25% Unfavorable 12 25 5 8 14 10 15 Hvn't hrd enough 52 54 44 60 49 55 59 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 - 1 1
10. Is your opinion of John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 47% 67% 33% 48% 53% 43% 54% Unfavorable 21 13 32 17 22 20 18 Hvn't hrd enough 29 19 32 32 23 34 27 REFUSED 2 1 3 2 2 2 2
11. Is your opinion of Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 53% 77% 36% 51% 55% 51% 58% Unfavorable 19 6 30 16 21 17 15 Hvn't hrd enough 27 17 32 32 23 31 26 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 2 1 1
12. Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 9% 16% 5% 8% 12% 7% 8% Unfavorable 10 4 17 9 13 8 10 Hvn't hrd enough 80 79 78 82 74 85 82 REFUSED 1 - - 1 1 - -
13. Is your opinion of John Edwards favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 46% 21% 67% 46% 45% 46% 40% Unfavorable 24 50 7 21 28 21 29 Hvn't hrd enough 28 27 24 31 24 32 29 REFUSED 2 2 1 2 3 1 2
14. Is your opinion of Al Gore favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 41% 12% 66% 39% 40% 41% 28% Unfavorable 50 83 26 47 54 46 62 Hvn't hrd enough 8 5 8 10 4 11 9 REFUSED 2 1 1 4 2 2 1
15. Is your opinion of Bill Richardson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 12% 9% 17% 10% 16% 9% 9% Unfavorable 9 9 7 11 11 7 8 Hvn't hrd enough 77 81 75 76 71 82 81 REFUSED 2 1 1 3 1 2 2
16. Is your opinion of Chris Dodd favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 7% 4% 13% 5% 11% 4% 6% Unfavorable 9 9 11 7 13 5 7 Hvn't hrd enough 83 87 76 86 73 91 88 REFUSED 1 1 1 3 2 1 0
17. Is your opinion of Chuck Hagel favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 5% 7% 6% 4% 7% 4% 3% Unfavorable 10 13 9 8 13 8 11 Hvn't hrd enough 84 79 85 87 80 87 84 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 - 1 1
18. Is your opinion of Duncan Hunter favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 3% 6% 2% 1% 3% 3% 4% Unfavorable 6 4 10 4 9 4 8 Hvn't hrd enough 90 89 88 94 87 93 88 REFUSED 1 - - 1 - 1 -
19. Is your opinion of Dennis Kucinich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 18% 9% 26% 19% 23% 14% 13% Unfavorable 37 47 31 35 42 33 36 Hvn't hrd enough 44 43 42 44 34 53 50 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 1 1 2
20. Is your opinion of George Pataki favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 15% 20% 11% 13% 18% 12% 13% Unfavorable 14 10 16 13 16 11 13 Hvn't hrd enough 71 68 71 72 64 76 73 REFUSED 1 2 1 2 1 1 1
21. Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 19% 10% 27% 16% 25% 13% 12% Unfavorable 19 31 14 14 24 14 18 Hvn't hrd enough 61 57 58 67 50 71 69 REFUSED 1 1 1 3 1 2 1
22. Is your opinion of Jim Gilmore favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 4% 4% 6% 3% 5% 4% 6% Unfavorable 5 5 6 5 5 5 7 Hvn't hrd enough 89 90 88 90 89 89 85 REFUSED 1 1 - 2 1 1 2
23. Is your opinion of John Kerry favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 35% 7% 62% 30% 33% 36% 30% Unfavorable 51 83 28 49 52 50 55 Hvn't hrd enough 12 10 8 18 11 13 14 REFUSED 2 1 3 2 4 1 1
24. Is your opinion of Mike Huckabee favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 3% 6% 2% 2% 3% 3% 4% Unfavorable 7 4 10 6 9 5 8 Hvn't hrd enough 89 89 88 90 87 91 86 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 1 1 1
25. Is your opinion of Newt Gingrich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 24% 49% 9% 16% 28% 21% 28% Unfavorable 50 32 68 52 54 48 45 Hvn't hrd enough 24 18 23 28 17 30 24 REFUSED 2 2 1 4 2 2 2
26. Is your opinion of Sam Brownback favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 4% 7% 3% 1% 3% 4% 3% Unfavorable 8 5 14 4 10 7 6 Hvn't hrd enough 88 88 82 94 87 89 91 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 1 1 1
27. Is your opinion of Tom Vilsack favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 3% 2% 4% 2% 4% 1% 2% Unfavorable 7 2 15 2 9 6 4 Hvn't hrd enough 89 95 81 94 87 92 93 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 - 1 1
28. Is your opinion of Tom Tancredo favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 2% 4% 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% Unfavorable 6 6 10 3 7 5 6 Hvn't hrd enough 91 90 88 95 91 91 91 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 - 1 1
29. Is your opinion of Tommy Thompson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 8% 13% 8% 3% 12% 5% 10% Unfavorable 10 5 13 12 13 8 10 Hvn't hrd enough 81 81 78 84 74 86 80 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
30. Is your opinion of Wesley Clark favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 15% 9% 21% 13% 20% 10% 11% Unfavorable 14 19 13 11 18 10 14 Hvn't hrd enough 70 73 65 73 61 78 73 REFUSED 1 - 1 3 1 1 1
35. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 34% 74% 5% 31% 37% 33% 50% Disapprove 62 22 94 63 60 63 48 DK/NA 4 4 1 6 3 4 2 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Approve 36% 29% 41% 29% 39% 44% Disapprove 61 68 54 68 55 53 DK/NA 3 3 4 4 6 3
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
Jan 30 Dec 13 2007 2006 Approve 34 34 Disapprove 62 62 DK/NA 4 4
36. Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Right direction 27% 57% 8% 20% 32% 23% 35% Wrong track 68 36 89 74 63 71 58 DK/NA 5 7 2 6 5 6 7 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Right direction 27% 22% 29% 20% 35% 34% Wrong track 68 74 61 77 57 61 DK/NA 5 4 10 3 8 6
37. What do you think is the most important problem facing the country today?
Tot War (Iraq) 44% Economy Total 11% Economy general 3 Unemployment/jobs 6 Cost of living 1 Business leaving/ Outsourcing 1 Terrorism Total 6% Terrorism general 4 Security/Safety 2 Healthcare/Costs/ Ins/HMO's 6% Ethics/Values/ Morality Total 4% Lack of ethics/ Morality 2 Family breakdown/ Family values 1 Lack of religion 1 Politicians Total 4% Politicians/ Campaigns general 1 Political corruption 1 Bush administration 2 Education Total 3% Education general 2 Funding education 1 Immigration 3% Foreign Affairs Total 2% Foreign affairs/ policy general 1 Priorities s/b at home, not abroad 1 Abortion 1 Budget deficits 1 Drugs 1 Energy Total 1 Environment/Pollution 1 Poverty/Homeless 1 Taxes general 1 Other 4 DK/NA 3
38. Which political party do you think can do a better job of handling that problem the Republican Party or the Democratic Party?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Republican 26% 68% 2% 16% 28% 24% 35% Democratic 49 9 88 41 48 49 39 NO DIFFERENCE(VOL) 13 12 4 22 13 12 15 DK/NA 13 10 7 21 11 14 11 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Republican 25% 22% 31% 20% 27% 35% Democratic 43 54 43 58 47 43 NO DIFFERENCE(VOL) 13 13 12 13 14 10 DK/NA 19 11 14 9 13 11 MOST IMPORTANT PROB Q37 Iraq Econ Republican 22% 17% Democratic 58 57 NO DIFFERENCE(VOL) 9 10 DK/NA 11 16
39. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 31% 65% 6% 28% 34% 28% 44% Disapprove 65 29 92 66 63 66 51 DK/NA 5 6 2 5 3 6 5 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Approve 35% 25% 32% 23% 39% 36% Disapprove 62 71 61 73 55 58 DK/NA 4 4 8 4 6 5
40. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Right thing 37% 72% 12% 35% 40% 35% 51% Wrong thing 56 22 83 58 55 57 42 DK/NA 6 6 5 7 4 8 7 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Right thing 39% 33% 47% 39% 36% 45% Wrong thing 55 62 47 58 57 47 DK/NA 7 6 5 3 7 8
41. Do you support or oppose Bush's plan to send approximately 22,000 additional U.S. military forces to Iraq?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Support 34% 68% 8% 33% 42% 27% 44% Oppose 60 24 88 59 53 66 49 DK/NA 6 7 3 8 5 7 7 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Support 37% 27% 43% 27% 39% 42% Oppose 55 67 54 72 54 51 DK/NA 8 6 4 1 8 6