Ohio (OH) Poll * May 16, 2007 * Obama, Giuliani Neck And Neck - Quinnipiac University

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May 16, 2007 - Obama, Giuliani Neck And Neck In Ohio, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; But Clinton Still Tops Democratic Primary Pack

Word format Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani gets 43 percent to Illinois Sen. Barack Obama's 42 percent in the 2008 presidential race in Ohio, and leads other Democrats by wider margins, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
Giuliani tops New York Sen. Hillary Clinton 47 - 43 percent, and leads former Vice President Al Gore 48 - 40 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. In other general election matchups:
Arizona Sen. John McCain gets 45 percent to Clinton's 44 percent; Sen. Obama bests McCain 44 - 41 percent; McCain edges Gore 45 - 42 percent.
While Giuliani leads the Republican pack with 23 percent, followed by McCain at 17 percent, former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson has moved up to 15 percent, a 7-point jump since April 26. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has 11 percent and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has 6 percent.
Clinton leads among Democrats with 38 percent, followed by Obama at 19 percent, 2004 vice presidential candidate John Edwards at 11 percent and Gore at 10 percent.
"Ohio is the nation's premier swing state and Sen. Obama does best here of the Democrats, yet he needs to do something about Sen. Clinton's lead in the primary in order to have a chance to strut his stuff next November," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Former Senator and Law & Order actor Fred Thompson is making the Republican race interesting as he appears to be eating into Sen. McCain's strength."
"The 23 percent of the vote Giuliani is getting in a GOP primary remains the same as the April 26 Quinnipiac University poll, but it is sharply lower than March 7 when he was getting 35 percent of the Ohio vote," Brown added.
"Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who has been the first to buy national television ads, finally breaks into double digits among Ohio Republicans."
How Ohio voters feel about the various candidates could be a harbinger of good things for Obama and Thompson. The Illinois Senator gets a 42 - 22 percent favorability rating, with 34 percent who do not know enough about him to form an opinion. Thompson gets a 25 - 8 percent favorability, including 46 - 4 percent among Republicans, but 65 percent of all voters still don't know enough about him to form an opinion. Favorability ratings for other candidates are:
54 - 26 percent favorable for Giuliani; A split 46 - 45 percent favorable for Clinton; 45 - 28 percent favorable for McCain; 46 - 43 percent favorable for Gore; 44 - 29 percent favorable for Edwards; 67 percent don't know enough about Romney to form an opinion. Bush Approval
Ohio voters disapprove 61 - 35 percent of the job President George W. Bush is doing.
From May 8 - 13, Quinnipiac University surveyed 939 Ohio voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points. The survey includes 334 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 5.4 percentage points, and 353 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 5.2 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research.
For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x271.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were, Joe Biden, Wesley Clark, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Al Gore, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama and Bill Richardson for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED DEMOCRATS Tot Men Wom Biden 1% 2% 1% Clark - - - Clinton 38 32 42 Dodd - - - Edwards 11 13 9 Gore 10 9 11 Gravel - - - Kucinich 2 4 1 Obama 19 21 18 Richardson 2 4 - SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 - DK/NA 14 12 15
TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Wesley Clark, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Al Gore, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama and Bill Richardson, for whom would you vote? na = not asked
REGISTERED DEMOCRATS.................. May 16 Apr 26 Mar 22 Mar 7 Jan 30 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Biden 1 1 1 2 2 Clark - - - 1 1 Clinton 38 37 32 32 38 Dodd - - - - - Edwards 11 17 11 13 11 Gore 10 11 14 11 6 Gravel - - - na na Kucinich 2 3 3 2 2 Obama 19 14 22 19 13 Richardson 2 1 1 1 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 14 14 15 16 17
2. (If registered Republican) If the 2008 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Sam Brownback, Jim Gilmore, Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, Chuck Hagel, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, George Pataki, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, Fred Thompson and Tommy Thompson for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED REPUBLICANS.......... WtBrnAgn Tot Men Wom Evnglcl Brownback - 1% - 1% Gilmore - - 1 1 Gingrich 6 6 6 6 Giuliani 23 20 26 23 Hagel - - - 1 Huckabee 2 4 - 5 Hunter - - - - McCain 17 21 13 19 Pataki - - - - Paul - - 1 1 Romney 11 11 10 7 Tancredo - - - 1 Thompson, F. 15 18 11 9 Thompson, T. 2 4 1 4 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 4 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 - - DK/NA 18 12 26 21
TREND: (If registered Republican) If the 2008 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Sam Brownback, Jim Gilmore, Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, Chuck Hagel, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, George Pataki, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, Fred Thompson, and Tommy Thompson, for whom would you vote? na = not asked
REGISTERED REPUBLICANS................ May 16 Apr 26 Mar 22 Mar 7 Jan 30 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Brownback - 2 - - 1 Gilmore - - 1 1 - Gingrich 6 9 8 13 11 Giuliani 23 23 31 35 30 Hagel - - 1 1 1 Huckabee 2 - 1 - 1 Hunter - - - 1 - McCain 17 21 20 18 22 Pataki - - - - 1 Paul - - - - - Romney 11 6 6 3 4 Tancredo - 1 1 1 1 Thompson, F. 15 8 6 na na Thompson, T. 2 - 1 2 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 4 1 3 5 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 1 2 DK/NA 18 23 23 19 19
3. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Clinton 43% 5% 82% 39% 35% 50% 29% Giuliani 47 89 13 43 57 39 61 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 2 4 2 3 5 DK/NA 6 3 2 13 5 7 4
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
May 16 Apr 26 Mar 22 Mar 7 Jan 30 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Clinton 43 41 46 44 46 Giuliani 47 46 43 43 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 2 2 2 DK/NA 6 9 7 9 8
4. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Obama 42% 11% 73% 41% 39% 45% 25% Giuliani 43 79 14 40 50 37 59 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 - 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 4 3 4 3 4 DK/NA 10 7 8 14 7 13 11
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
May 16 Apr 26 Mar 22 Mar 7 2007 2007 2007 2007 Obama 42 37 42 36 Giuliani 43 45 42 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 4 4 DK/NA 10 13 11 12
5. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Al Gore the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Gore 40% 4% 75% 39% 35% 44% 23% Giuliani 48 89 13 43 55 41 65 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 2 5 3 3 4 5 DK/NA 7 4 5 13 6 9 6
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Al Gore the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
May 16 Apr 26 2007 2007 Gore 40 39 Giuliani 48 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 DK/NA 7 10
6. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Clinton 44% 5% 83% 43% 36% 51% 27% McCain 45 88 11 39 54 36 61 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 3 2 2 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 3 2 2 4 DK/NA 6 4 2 12 5 8 4
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
May 16 Apr 26 Mar 22 Mar 7 Jan 30 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Clinton 44 42 46 45 46 McCain 45 44 42 42 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 3 2 2 DK/NA 6 10 8 9 8
7. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Obama 44% 10% 74% 43% 41% 46% 27% McCain 41 79 15 34 46 36 58 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 3 3 2 3 3 DK/NA 11 9 8 18 9 13 11
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
May 16 Apr 26 Mar 22 Mar 7 Jan 30 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Obama 44 36 45 42 38 McCain 41 42 37 39 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 3 2 3 DK/NA 11 16 13 15 18
8. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Al Gore the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Gore 42% 6% 78% 40% 38% 45% 22% McCain 45 85 11 42 51 39 64 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 - 3 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 5 3 2 4 6 DK/NA 8 6 5 12 7 9 6
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Al Gore the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
May 16 Apr 26 2007 2007 Gore 42 39 McCain 45 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 DK/NA 8 10
9. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Fred Thompson the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Clinton 47% 7% 84% 46% 39% 54% 31% Thompson 39 82 9 30 47 32 52 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 5 2 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 2 5 4 3 4 DK/NA 8 6 4 15 7 9 8
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Fred Thompson the Republican, for whom would you vote?
May 16 Apr 26 2007 2007 Clinton 47 45 Thompson 39 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 DK/NA 8 14
10. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Fred Thompson the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Obama 45% 13% 75% 45% 40% 50% 28% Thompson 34 70 10 25 41 27 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 4 1 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 2 4 6 4 4 4 DK/NA 15 13 10 21 14 17 18
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Fred Thompson the Republican, for whom would you vote?
May 16 Apr 26 2007 2007 Obama 45 44 Thompson 34 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 DK/NA 15 20
11. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Al Gore the Democrat and Fred Thompson the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Gore 44% 7% 84% 40% 37% 51% 24% Thompson 39 79 6 34 47 31 55 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 - 6 2 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 2 5 5 4 5 5 DK/NA 10 11 5 15 10 11 13
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Al Gore the Democrat and Fred Thompson the Republican, for whom would you vote?
May 16 Apr 26 2007 2007 Gore 44 44 Thompson 39 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 DK/NA 10 15
TREND: Is your opinion of -- favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him/her? Score = Favorable (Haven't Heard Enough)
May 16 Apr 26 Mar 22 Mar 7 Jan 30 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Clinton, Hillary 46( 7) 47( 8) 48( 9) 49( 9) 49(10) Edwards, John 44(25) 47(27) 48(27) 47(26) 46(28) Giuliani, Rudy 54(17) 54(22) 52(25) 53(23) 53(27) Gore, Al 46( 9) 44(12) na na 41(8) McCain, John 45(25) 47(28) 46(29) 44(30) 47(29) Obama, Barack 42(34) 41(36) 43(39) 40(41) 35(52) Romney, Mitt 17(67) 15(73) 17(70) 14(70) 9(80) Thompson, Fred 25(65) 21(69) na na na
12. Is your opinion of -- Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 46% 11% 81% 42% 40% 51% 30% Unfavorable 45 83 13 44 53 38 61 Hvn't hrd enough 7 6 5 11 6 9 8 REFUSED 2 - 1 4 2 2 1
TREND: Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
May 16 Apr 26 Mar 22 Mar 7 Jan 30 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Favorable 46 47 48 49 49 Unfavorable 45 43 41 41 38 Hvn't hrd enough 7 8 9 9 10 REFUSED 2 2 2 2 3
13. Is your opinion of -- John Edwards favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 44% 23% 63% 44% 43% 44% 33% Unfavorable 29 55 12 24 36 23 36 Hvn't hrd enough 25 21 24 28 20 30 29 REFUSED 2 2 1 4 1 3 2
TREND: Is your opinion of John Edwards favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
May 16 Apr 26 Mar 22 Mar 7 Jan 30 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Favorable 44 47 48 47 46 Unfavorable 29 24 24 24 24 Hvn't hrd enough 25 27 27 26 28 REFUSED 2 1 1 2 2
14. Is your opinion of -- Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 54% 74% 35% 53% 57% 51% 60% Unfavorable 26 11 40 27 27 25 18 Hvn't hrd enough 17 13 21 17 13 21 20 REFUSED 3 2 4 3 2 4 2
TREND: Is your opinion of Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
May 16 Apr 26 Mar 22 Mar 7 Jan 30 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Favorable 54 54 52 53 53 Unfavorable 26 22 22 22 19 Hvn't hrd enough 17 22 25 23 27 REFUSED 3 2 1 2 1
15. Is your opinion of -- Al Gore favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 46% 14% 81% 42% 45% 47% 29% Unfavorable 43 78 10 44 51 36 64 Hvn't hrd enough 9 6 9 10 3 14 5 REFUSED 2 1 1 4 2 2 1
TREND: Is your opinion of Al Gore favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
May 16 Apr 26 Jan 30 2007 2007 2007 Favorable 46 44 41 Unfavorable 43 41 50 Hvn't hrd enough 9 12 8 REFUSED 2 3 2
16. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 45% 67% 26% 47% 53% 38% 50% Unfavorable 28 13 42 23 29 26 19 Hvn't hrd enough 25 19 31 26 16 34 29 REFUSED 2 2 1 5 2 2 2
TREND: Is your opinion of John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
May 16 Apr 26 Mar 22 Mar 7 Jan 30 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Favorable 45 47 46 44 47 Unfavorable 28 22 23 24 21 Hvn't hrd enough 25 28 29 30 29 REFUSED 2 3 2 2 2
17. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 42% 25% 58% 40% 45% 40% 31% Unfavorable 22 40 12 19 26 19 29 Hvn't hrd enough 34 34 29 40 28 39 38 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 1 2 2
TREND: Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
May 16 Apr 26 Mar 22 Mar 7 Jan 30 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Favorable 42 41 43 40 35 Unfavorable 22 21 17 17 12 Hvn't hrd enough 34 36 39 41 52 REFUSED 1 2 1 2 1
18. Is your opinion of -- Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 17% 35% 5% 12% 23% 12% 19% Unfavorable 15 10 22 13 19 12 11 Hvn't hrd enough 67 54 72 73 57 75 70 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1 1 -
TREND: Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
May 16 Apr 26 Mar 22 Mar 7 Jan 30 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Favorable 17 15 17 14 9 Unfavorable 15 11 11 15 10 Hvn't hrd enough 67 73 70 70 80 REFUSED 1 1 2 2 1
19. Is your opinion of -- Fred Thompson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 25% 46% 10% 21% 33% 18% 31% Unfavorable 8 4 13 8 11 7 5 Hvn't hrd enough 65 50 76 70 55 75 64 REFUSED 1 - 1 2 2 1 0
TREND: Is your opinion of Fred Thompson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her/him?
May 16 Apr 26 2007 2007 Favorable 25 21 Unfavorable 8 10 Hvn't hrd enough 65 69 REFUSED 1 1
24. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 35% 76% 6% 26% 39% 32% 51% Disapprove 61 19 92 69 58 63 43 DK/NA 4 5 2 6 3 5 5
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve May 16 Mar 22 Jan 30 Dec 13 May 16 Mar 22 2007 2007 2007 2006 2007 2007 Approve 35 30 34 34 35 30 Disapprove 61 66 62 62 61 66 DK/NA 4 4 4 4 4 4