Ohio (OH) Poll * November 14, 2007 * Giuliani Catches Clinton In Oh - Quinnipiac University

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November 14, 2007 - Giuliani Catches Clinton In Ohio, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Strickland On Ticket Won't Help Dems

Word format Former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani and New York Sen. Hillary Clinton remain virtually deadlocked with 44 percent for the Democrat and 43 percent for the Republican in the Ohio presidential race. Voters say 49 - 29 percent that Gov. Ted Strickland is not qualified to be vice president and his presence on the ticket would not help the Democratic nominee, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
Mayor Giuliani and Sen. Clinton each hold substantial leads in the race for their party nominations, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. While 55 percent of Ohio voters say they are less likely to vote against a candidate who favors issuing driver's licenses to illegal immigrants, only 3 percent are more likely to support that candidate.
Despite their wide leads for the nominations, both Clinton and Giuliani face sizable segments of the Ohio electorate (41 percent for her, 39 percent for him) who say they would never vote for them. Clinton's problems are worse among married voters - 46 percent of married women and 48 percent of married men say they would never vote for her.
While Democratic Gov. Strickland was overwhelmingly elected in November 2006, only 13 percent of Ohio voters, including 20 percent of Democrats, are more likely to vote for the Democratic ticket next year if Strickland is running as Vice President. Eleven percent of voters say they are less likely to vote for a Strickland ticket and 68 percent say it won't affect their vote.
"Even though Gov. Strickland is very popular among Ohioans, they do not see him as vice presidential material and do not give any indication he would be substantial help to the Democratic nominee in carrying Ohio's crucial electoral votes," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University poll.
"The Republicans face an unfriendly playing field for the 2008 election in Ohio when it comes to the economy and the war in Iraq, but immigration could give them an issue on which the voters are on their side," said Brown.
In other possible presidential matchups:
Giuliani trails former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards 46 - 40 percent and ties Illinois Sen. Barack Obama 41 - 41 percent; Clinton loses to Arizona Sen. John McCain 46 - 42 percent and defeats former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson 48 - 38 and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney 47 - 38 percent.
In the Democratic primary Clinton leads Obama 42 - 17 percent, compared to 47 - 19 percent October 10. Edwards gets 14 percent, compared to 11 percent October 10.
Giuliani leads the GOP race with 27 percent to 14 percent for McCain, 13 percent for Thompson and 11 percent for Romney.
Ohio voters split 44 - 44 percent in their favorable-unfavorable opinion of Clinton. Giuliani gets a 40 - 28 percent favorability. Bush Approval
Ohio voters disapprove 67 - 29 percent of the job President George W. Bush is doing, his lowest score ever in the state.
But voters disagree 61 - 33 percent with the assumption that no Republican can be elected President in 2008 because of Bush's low approval and the war in Iraq. Democrats agree 50 - 41 percent, while Republicans disagree 84 - 11 percent and independent voters disagree with the statement 62 - 33 percent.
From November 6 - 11, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,231 Ohio voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points. The survey includes 447 Republicans and 450 Democrats, each with a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x271.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama, and Bill Richardson for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED DEMOCRATS Tot Men Wom Biden 3% 2% 3% Clinton 42 35 47 Dodd - - - Edwards 14 15 14 Gravel - 1 - Kucinich 4 3 4 Obama 17 23 12 Richardson 1 1 - SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 DK/NA 17 17 17
TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama and Bill Richardson, for whom would you vote? na = not asked
REGISTERED DEMOCRATS.................................. Nov 14 Oct 10 Sep 6 Aug 8 Jul 12 Jun 27 May 16 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Biden 3 2 2 3 1 1 1 Clark na na na na na na - Clinton 42 47 44 41 35 40 38 Dodd - - - - - - - Edwards 14 11 11 11 13 12 11 Gore na na 8 8 12 12 10 Gravel - - - - - - - Kucinich 4 2 3 2 3 3 2 Obama 17 19 15 16 17 12 19 Richardson 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 1 3 3 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 1 1 1 - DK/NA 17 15 13 14 15 16 14
1a. (If express choice) How likely is it that you could change your mind - Very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, not likely at all?
REGISTERED DEMOCRATS Tot Men Wom Very likely 9% 11% 7% Smwht likely 38 32 41 Not too likely 21 23 20 Not likely at all 32 33 31 DK/NA - - -
2. (If registered Republican) If the 2008 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo and Fred Thompson for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED REPUBLICANS.......... WtBrnAgn Tot Men Wom Evnglcl Giuliani 27% 28% 26% 16% Huckabee 7 7 8 13 Hunter 1 2 - 2 McCain 14 13 15 13 Paul 2 2 2 3 Romney 11 13 10 9 Tancredo 1 1 - 1 Thompson 13 16 10 15 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 4 3 DK/NA 20 15 25 26
TREND: (If registered Republican) If the 2008 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo and Fred Thompson, for whom would you vote? na = not asked
REGISTERED REPUBLICANS................................ Nov 14 Oct 10 Sep 6 Aug 8 Jul 12 Jun 27 May 16 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Brownback na 1 1 - 1 - - Gilmore na na na - 1 - - Gingrich na na 9 8 5 6 6 Giuliani 27 29 21 29 24 25 23 Hagel na na na na na na - Huckabee 7 5 3 1 2 2 2 Hunter 1 1 1 1 - - - McCain 14 10 10 11 14 16 17 Pataki na na na na na na - Paul 2 1 2 1 1 - - Romney 11 8 8 8 8 7 11 Tancredo 1 1 1 - - - - Thompson, F. 13 17 15 11 18 17 15 Thompson, T. na na na 2 1 1 2 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 3 4 2 3 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 2 4 2 3 2 DK/NA 20 22 25 22 20 22 18
2a. (If express choice) How likely is it that you could change your mind - Very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, not likely at all?
REGISTERED REPUBLICANS.......... WtBrnAgn Tot Men Wom Evnglcl Very likely 17% 17% 16% 16% Smwht likely 48 46 50 56 Not too likely 16 16 16 12 Not likely at all 18 20 15 13 DK/NA 2 - 3 3
3. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Clinton 44% 8% 80% 42% 41% 47% 32% Giuliani 43 86 10 40 43 43 55 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 2 3 3 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 1 2 7 5 3 4 DK/NA 7 3 6 9 7 6 7
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Nov 14 Oct 10 Sep 6 Aug 8 Jul 12 Jun 27 May 16 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Clinton 44 46 47 43 44 43 43 Giuliani 43 40 40 43 42 43 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 1 2 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 DK/NA 7 7 8 8 7 8 6
4. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Obama 41% 9% 72% 38% 39% 43% 30% Giuliani 41 84 11 38 43 40 49 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 3 4 4 3 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 1 4 7 5 4 6 DK/NA 10 4 9 13 10 10 12
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Nov 14 Oct 10 Sep 6 Aug 8 Jul 12 Jun 27 May 16 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Obama 41 44 42 39 41 40 42 Giuliani 41 38 41 42 42 42 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 3 2 3 3 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 DK/NA 10 9 10 12 10 12 10
5. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were John Edwards the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Edwards 46% 12% 76% 44% 45% 47% 37% Giuliani 40 80 13 36 40 40 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 - 3 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 2 6 3 3 4 DK/NA 9 5 8 12 10 8 11
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were John Edwards the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Nov 14 Oct 10 Sep 6 Mar 22 Mar 7 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Edwards 46 46 47 43 40 Giuliani 40 36 38 42 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 2 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 4 3 3 DK/NA 9 10 8 10 10
6. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Clinton 42% 5% 79% 38% 39% 45% 31% McCain 46 89 13 45 49 44 57 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 3 3 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 1 5 4 2 3 DK/NA 7 3 6 10 6 7 7
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Nov 14 Oct 10 Sep 6 Jul 12 Jun 27 May 16 Apr 26 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Clinton 42 48 46 45 44 44 42 McCain 46 38 41 41 42 45 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 3 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 3 4 4 2 3 DK/NA 7 8 8 7 9 6 10
7. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Fred Thompson the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Clinton 48% 9% 83% 47% 46% 51% 36% Thompson 38 83 6 36 40 37 53 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 2 3 2 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 2 4 5 3 3 DK/NA 8 5 6 10 8 8 8
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Fred Thompson the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Nov 14 Oct 10 Sep 6 Aug 8 Jul 12 Jun 27 May 16 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Clinton 48 50 49 47 47 47 47 Thompson 38 36 37 36 38 38 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 4 4 4 3 3 DK/NA 8 9 9 9 9 9 8
8. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Clinton 47% 9% 83% 44% 44% 50% 35% Romney 38 82 7 35 41 36 49 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 1 3 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 2 5 5 3 4 DK/NA 8 6 7 12 8 9 10
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Nov 14 Oct 10 Sep 6 Mar 22 Mar 7 Jan 30 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Clinton 47 51 50 51 51 52 Romney 38 34 37 32 31 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 4 3 4 3 DK/NA 8 9 8 11 13 12
9. Is your opinion of -- Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 44% 11% 74% 41% 40% 47% 34% Unfavorable 44 82 13 44 46 42 54 Hvn't hrd enough 9 6 11 10 10 9 9 REFUSED 3 2 2 4 4 2 3
TREND: Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
Nov 14 Oct 10 Sep 6 Aug 8 Jul 12 Jun 27 May 16 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Favorable 44 49 51 49 49 47 46 Unfavorable 44 42 43 41 42 44 45 Hvn't hrd enough 9 6 5 8 6 7 7 REFUSED 3 2 1 3 3 2 2
10. Is your opinion of -- Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 40% 65% 25% 37% 41% 39% 41% Unfavorable 28 11 45 28 33 24 22 Hvn't hrd enough 28 21 26 30 22 33 32 REFUSED 4 3 4 5 4 4 4
TREND: Is your opinion of Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Nov 14 Oct 10 Sep 6 Aug 8 Jul 12 Jun 27 May 16 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Favorable 40 42 48 48 50 50 54 Unfavorable 28 33 30 29 27 23 26 Hvn't hrd enough 28 23 19 20 20 24 17 REFUSED 4 2 2 3 2 3 3
11. Do you think Hillary Clinton has the Democratic nomination for President locked up?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Yes 36% 34% 40% 33% 37% 34% 35% No 57 57 54 61 55 59 57 DK/NA 8 9 7 6 8 7 8
12. Do you think Rudy Giuliani has the Republican nomination for President locked up?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Yes 13% 13% 16% 12% 12% 15% 12% No 73 78 64 78 76 71 73 DK/NA 13 9 20 10 12 14 15
13. If Hillary Clinton were the Democratic candidate for President, would you say you would vote for her, you might vote for her, or you would not vote for her under any circumstances?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Would vote for her 33% 4% 70% 24% 30% 36% 24% Might vote for her 23 11 19 38 24 22 21 W'NOT vote for her 41 84 10 35 43 39 52 DK/NA 3 1 1 4 3 3 3 Married Unmarr Married Unmarr Married Unmarr Women Women Men Men Would vote for her 27% 41% 30% 43% 24% 39% Might vote for her 24 25 23 25 25 25 W'NOT vote for her 47 30 46 28 48 32 DK/NA 3 4 2 4 4 4
14. If Rudy Giuliani were the Republican candidate for President, would you say you would vote for him, you might vote for him, or you would not vote for him under any circumstances?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Would vote for him 25% 61% 3% 19% 28% 22% 30% Might vote for him 32 29 21 40 29 34 35 W'NOT vote for him 39 7 70 34 39 38 29 DK/NA 5 3 5 7 4 6 7 Married Unmarr Married Unmarr Married Unmarr Women Women Men Men Would vote for him 30% 20% 27% 19% 33% 20% Might vote for him 31 30 36 27 27 34 W'NOT vote for him 35 43 34 46 36 39 DK/NA 4 7 4 8 4 7
17. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Sherrod Brown is handling his job as United States Senator?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 47% 32% 60% 47% 43% 50% 46% Disapprove 21 32 12 22 26 16 19 DK/NA 33 35 28 31 31 34 34
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Sherrod Brown is handling his job as United States Senator? (* also 47% on 3/21/07) (** also 42% on 2/1/07)
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Nov 14 Sep 5 Jul 11 May 15 Mar 21 Nov 14 May 15 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007* 2007** Approve 47 46 44 42 47 47 42 Disapprove 21 21 19 21 18 21 21 DK/NA 33 33 36 36 35 33 36
18. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Voinovich is handling his job as United States Senator?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 50% 53% 48% 52% 47% 52% 54% Disapprove 29 26 33 29 35 24 25 DK/NA 21 21 19 19 18 24 21
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Voinovich is handling his job as United States Senator?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Nov 14 Sep 5 Jul 11 May 15 Mar 21 Mar 21 Dec 13 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2006 Approve 50 47 45 47 51 51 41 Disapprove 29 33 34 34 28 28 33 DK/NA 21 21 22 19 21 21 26
19. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 29% 72% 4% 19% 27% 31% 44% Disapprove 67 23 93 77 69 65 52 DK/NA 4 5 3 4 4 4 5
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? (* also 29% on 7/12/07)
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Nov 14 Sep 6 Jul 12 May 16 Mar 22 May 16 Nov 14 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007* Approve 29 32 29 35 30 35 29 Disapprove 67 64 66 61 66 61 67 DK/NA 4 5 5 4 4 4 4
20. Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: It doesn't make any difference who the Republicans nominate for President because the Democrats are going to win because of President Bush and the war in Iraq.
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Agree 33% 11% 50% 33% 32% 33% 26% Disagree 61 84 41 62 62 60 66 DK/NA 6 5 8 5 6 6 8
21. Do you think Governor Ted Strickland is qualified to be Vice President of the United States or don't you think so?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Yes 29% 20% 38% 30% 29% 29% 30% No 49 58 40 49 51 47 46 DK/NA 23 22 22 21 20 25 24
22. Would you like Ted Strickland to run as the Democratic candidate for Vice President in 2008 or not?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Yes 25% 16% 33% 25% 24% 26% 27% No 53 62 47 52 55 51 49 DK/NA 22 22 20 23 20 23 24
23. If Ted Strickland is the Democratic Vice-Presidential candidate in 2008, would that make you more likely to vote for the Democratic ticket, less likely, or wouldn't it make a difference?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl More likely 13% 4% 20% 16% 14% 13% 12% Less likely 11 23 4 9 13 9 13 Would't make diff 68 68 69 66 66 70 67 DK/NA 7 5 8 9 7 8 7
32. If a Presidential candidate favors providing driver's licenses to illegal immigrants are you more likely to vote for that candidate, less likely to vote for that candidate, or doesn't it make a difference?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl More likely 3% 2% 4% 5% 3% 4% 3% Less likely 55 73 42 53 58 53 64 Doesn't make diff 37 23 49 38 34 40 30 DK/NA 4 2 5 5 4 4 3