Ohio (OH) Poll * February 4, 2009 * Democrats On Top In Early Look - Quinnipiac University

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February 4, 2009 - Democrats On Top In Early Look At 2010 Ohio Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Few Voters Know Much About Any Candidates

Word format In an early look at the 2010 Republican primary for the Ohio U.S. Senate seat being vacated by George Voinovich, former U.S. Rep. Rob Portman holds a 33 - 11 percent lead over State Auditor Mary Taylor, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Both Republicans trail either of the two leading Democratic candidates, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher or Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, by almost identical double-digit margins.
In a possible Democratic primary, Fisher, Brunner and U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan each get from 14 to 18 percent of the vote and more than half of the Democratic electorate is undecided, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.
In trial heats between the leading Democratic and Republican Senate candidates, Fisher defeats Portman 42 - 27 percent, with 29 percent undecided. Fisher tops Taylor by almost an identical 41 - 27 percent margin. Brunner prevails by smaller margins, 38 - 28 percent over Portman and 38 - 26 percent over Taylor.
"Ohio remains pretty blue these days, given Gov. Ted Strickland's high approval ratings in past polls and the fact that President Barack Obama carried the state easily, and it shows in the early Senate numbers," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "But Republicans should not be disheartened by these numbers. We are still in the Obama honeymoon period and both Fisher and Brunner are known almost twice as well statewide as Portman and Taylor.
"Moreover, four in 10 independent voters - the folks who likely will decide the election - are undecided at this point," said Brown.
If Brunner decides not to seek the Senate seat and runs for reelection as Ohio's Secretary of State, she would defeat Republican Jon Husted in a mythical matchup 42 - 25 percent. Here too three in 10 voters are undecided.
Although he has been active in Ohio politics for almost 30 years, been elected state Attorney General and lost the 1998 governorship by the smallest margin in state history, Lt. Gov. Fisher is relatively unknown to the voting public. A third of voters view him favorably, 10 percent unfavorably and 55 percent say they don't know enough about him to make a decision.
"That large a number of people who can't rate Fisher is surprising and a potential problem for him if he chooses to run. He's been around so long, and just doesn't seem to have left that many footprints in the snow, in the minds of voters," said Brown. "By comparison, Brunner, elected statewide for the first time in 2006, has almost identical favorability and unfavorability numbers to Fisher."
Portman, whose name was mentioned last summer as a possible running mate for Republican presidential nominee John McCain, is a former U.S. trade representative, a cabinet level post, and also was director of the federal office of Management and Budget. But outside of his Cincinnati-area district he is not that well known, with 21 percent of Ohioans viewing him favorably, 6 percent unfavorably and 72 percent who haven't heard enough to form an impression of him. He is somewhat better known than State Auditor Taylor, who is viewed favorably by 17 percent, unfavorably by 5 percent with 78 percent who don't know enough to rate her.
Tim Ryan, the Congressman who runs even with Fisher and Brunner in a Democratic Senate primary, is the least known of any of the candidates, with 12 percent viewing him favorably, 3 percent unfavorably and 84 percent with no opinion.
From January 29 - February 2, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,127 Ohio voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. The survey includes 492 Democrats, with a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points, and 374 Republicans, with a margin of error of +/- 5.1 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research.
2. (If registered Republican) As you may know, Ohio Senator George Voinovich will not be running for reelection in 2010. Thinking about the 2010 Republican primary for United States Senator, if the 2010 Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Rob Portman and Mary Taylor, for whom would you vote?
Rep Portman 33% Taylor 11 DK/NA 56
3. (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Lee Fisher, Jennifer Brunner and Tim Ryan, for whom would you vote?
Dem Fisher 18% Brunner 16 Tim Ryan 14 DK/NA 53
6. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Lee Fisher the Democrat and Rob Portman the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Fisher 42% 3% 73% 37% 41% 42% 24% Portman 27 71 3 21 31 25 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 2 - 1 DK/NA 29 26 23 37 26 32 31 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Fisher 45% 47% 35% 33% 41% 30% Portman 29 20 33 31 43 27 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 1 1 - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 2 - 1 1 DK/NA 25 31 29 35 15 40
7. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Lee Fisher the Democrat and Mary Taylor the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Fisher 41% 8% 71% 34% 41% 41% 27% Taylor 27 65 5 22 28 26 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 2 1 2 DK/NA 30 25 23 41 28 32 30 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Fisher 42% 45% 36% 40% 44% 30% Taylor 30 25 32 19 28 28 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 1 2 - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 - 2 1 DK/NA 26 29 29 39 26 39
8. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Jennifer Brunner the Democrat and Rob Portman the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Brunner 38% 4% 68% 32% 39% 38% 22% Portman 28 70 4 24 30 26 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 2 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 3 2 1 1 DK/NA 31 26 26 39 27 35 32 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Brunner 45% 41% 34% 33% 37% 30% Portman 29 21 32 24 44 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 3 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 1 3 1 1 DK/NA 25 35 31 37 18 38
9. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Jennifer Brunner the Democrat and Mary Taylor the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Brunner 38% 5% 67% 32% 40% 37% 21% Taylor 26 66 3 22 25 27 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 1 3 3 1 2 DK/NA 33 28 28 41 31 35 34 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Brunner 40% 40% 33% 36% 43% 31% Taylor 31 22 35 22 27 27 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 2 3 2 - DK/NA 26 36 28 37 28 40
10. If the 2010 election for Secretary of State were being held today and the candidates were Jennifer Brunner the Democrat and Jon Husted the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Brunner 42% 6% 72% 36% 43% 40% 26% Husted 25 65 2 22 27 23 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 3 2 1 3 DK/NA 31 28 25 38 27 35 32 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Brunner 44% 46% 36% 40% 39% 33% Husted 28 22 25 17 28 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 1 2 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 2 3 3 2 1 DK/NA 28 30 34 38 30 35
15. Is your opinion of -- Lee Fisher favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 33% 15% 48% 31% 37% 29% 28% Unfavorable 10 18 5 11 13 8 12 Hvn't hrd enough 55 66 45 56 47 61 58 REFUSED 2 1 2 3 3 2 2 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Favorable 39% 39% 20% 32% 27% 26% Unfavorable 10 11 11 8 11 8 Hvn't hrd enough 48 48 69 60 60 65 REFUSED 3 3 1 1 2 1
TREND: Is your opinion of -- Lee Fisher favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Feb 4 Dec 10 2009 2008 Favorable 33 23 Unfavorable 10 10 Hvn't hrd enough 55 66 REFUSED 2 1
16. Is your opinion of -- Tim Ryan favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 12% 2% 22% 8% 12% 11% 10% Unfavorable 3 3 2 5 5 2 3 Hvn't hrd enough 84 94 75 85 82 86 87 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Favorable 7% 20% 1% 12% 5% 7% Unfavorable - 7 2 1 1 1 Hvn't hrd enough 92 72 97 87 92 91 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 2 1
17. Is your opinion of -- Jennifer Brunner favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 34% 15% 53% 29% 39% 30% 25% Unfavorable 10 19 2 11 10 9 13 Hvn't hrd enough 55 64 44 59 49 60 61 REFUSED 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Favorable 41% 36% 31% 29% 32% 28% Unfavorable 12 9 6 8 11 10 Hvn't hrd enough 45 54 61 63 56 62 REFUSED 2 1 1 1 1 -
TREND: Is your opinion of -- Jennifer Brunner favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
Feb 4 Dec 10 2009 2008 Favorable 34 26% Unfavorable 10 24 Hvn't hrd enough 55 49 REFUSED 1 1
18. Is your opinion of -- Rob Portman favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 21% 38% 12% 19% 27% 17% 27% Unfavorable 6 1 10 6 8 4 2 Hvn't hrd enough 72 61 78 73 64 79 70 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 2 - 1 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Favorable 23% 12% 11% 23% 51% 22% Unfavorable 6 2 4 1 16 8 Hvn't hrd enough 69 85 85 76 32 69 REFUSED 2 1 - 1 - -
TREND: Is your opinion of -- Rob Portman favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Feb 4 Dec 10 2009 2008 Favorable 21 12 Unfavorable 6 7 Hvn't hrd enough 72 80 REFUSED 1 1
19. Is your opinion of -- Mary Taylor favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 17% 26% 12% 15% 19% 14% 17% Unfavorable 5 3 4 7 7 2 5 Hvn't hrd enough 78 71 83 76 72 83 76 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Favorable 22% 15% 19% 18% 17% 12% Unfavorable 5 5 - 2 6 6 Hvn't hrd enough 71 78 79 79 77 83 REFUSED 1 2 1 1 1 -
20. Is your opinion of -- Jon Husted favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 12% 18% 7% 13% 13% 12% 14% Unfavorable 5 3 6 6 7 3 3 Hvn't hrd enough 81 79 85 79 79 84 82 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Favorable 16% 8% 7% 15% 7% 26% Unfavorable 7 5 1 1 6 7 Hvn't hrd enough 75 86 92 83 86 66 REFUSED 2 2 - 1 1 1
22. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Sherrod Brown is handling his job as United States Senator?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 51% 32% 67% 52% 52% 51% 44% Disapprove 22 37 11 21 27 17 29 DK/NA 27 31 22 26 22 32 28 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Approve 55% 52% 54% 54% 45% 49% Disapprove 19 26 21 14 19 19 DK/NA 26 22 25 32 36 32
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Sherrod Brown is handling his job as United States Senator? (high also 51% on 08/14/08, *low also 42% on 2/1/07)
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Feb 4 Dec 10 Aug 14 Jun 4 Feb 25 Feb 4 May 15 2009 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009* 2007** Approve 51 48 51 44 44 51 42 Disapprove 22 26 23 23 15 22 21 DK/NA 27 26 26 33 41 27 36
23. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Voinovich is handling his job as United States Senator?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 55% 54% 56% 55% 54% 55% 53% Disapprove 29 32 29 26 35 24 31 DK/NA 16 14 15 19 11 21 16 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Approve 63% 55% 55% 53% 47% 52% Disapprove 26 30 28 26 30 31 DK/NA 12 15 16 20 23 17
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Voinovich is handling his job as United States Senator?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Feb 4 Dec 10 Aug 14 Jun 4 Feb 25 Feb 4 Dec 13 2009 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2006 Approve 55 51 51 45 46 55 41 Disapprove 29 31 32 31 27 29 33 DK/NA 16 17 17 23 27 16 26
24. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jennifer Brunner is handling her job as Ohio's Secretary of State?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 44% 26% 62% 38% 48% 40% 33% Disapprove 16 31 6 13 17 14 23 DK/NA 41 43 32 49 35 46 44 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Approve 50% 45% 47% 38% 35% 39% Disapprove 15 16 9 11 22 16 DK/NA 35 39 44 51 43 45
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jennifer Brunner is handling her job as Ohio's Secretary of State?
Feb 4 Dec 10 Aug 14 Jun 4 2009 2008 2008 2008 Approve 44 39 38 38 Disapprove 16 28 12 13 DK/NA 41 33 50 48
25. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mary Taylor is handling her job as Ohio's state auditor?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 37% 34% 44% 31% 41% 34% 38% Disapprove 8 8 7 9 9 7 11 DK/NA 55 58 49 60 50 59 51 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Approve 40% 35% 44% 40% 36% 32% Disapprove 8 6 8 8 9 13 DK/NA 52 59 48 52 54 55
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mary Taylor is handling her job as Ohio's state auditor?
Feb 4 Aug 14 Jun 4 2009 2008 2008 Approve 37 39 39 Disapprove 8 10 12 DK/NA 55 52 49