Ohio (OH) Poll * February 5, 2009 * Ohio Gov. Strickland On Top In - Quinnipiac University

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February 5, 2009 - Ohio Gov. Strickland On Top In Early Look At 2010 Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Back Most Of His Educational Program

Word format Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland has a 63 - 25 percent job approval rating and swamps the two leading potential Republican candidates against him in 2010, John Kasich and Mike DeWine by 30 percent and 22 percent respectively, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
Ohio voters support the overall education plan Gov. Strickland laid out in his State of the State address, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Voters support 51 - 42 percent increasing the school year from 180 days to 200 days. But they oppose 56 - 36 percent lengthening the school day.
By a 66 - 30 percent margin, voters want to keep the Ohio Graduation Test required for all schools in the state. Graduation requirements are "too strict," 9 percent say, while 38 percent say "not strict enough" and 45 percent say requirements are "about right."
And by a 69 - 22 percent margin, Ohioans think that despite the Governor's pledge not to raise taxes statewide, nor to force localities to do so, that they will wind up paying more taxes.
"Gov. Ted Strickland has a selling job to do on the graduation test, because voters indicate they like the current graduation requirements or want a tougher standard," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "And despite the Governor's promises, they don't believe that all these changes aren't going to hit them in the pocketbook."
Among the Republicans vying for the nomination to oppose Strickland in 2010, former U.S. Sen. Mike DeWine, who is by far better known than Kasich, holds a 37 - 22 percent lead over the former congressman and Fox TV news host Kasich. A third potential candidate, State Sen. Kevin Coughlin gets only 3 percent in a GOP primary and is virtually unknown statewide.
In trial matchups, Strickland beats Kasich 56 - 26 percent and DeWine 54 - 32 percent.
By a 60 - 19 percent margin, Ohio voters have a favorable opinion of Strickland, while 17 percent haven't heard enough to form an opinion.
DeWine gets a 45 - 23 percent favorability, with 30 percent who haven't heard enough, while Kasich gets a 21 - 6 percent favorability, with 71 percent who haven't heard enough.
"Anything is possible in politics, but Gov. Strickland is in an extremely strong position for re-election 21 months before the 2010 election," said Brown. "He leads among independents by a three-to-one margin against Kasich and two-to-one against DeWine."
"In politics, nothing is as valuable to a politician as a good first impression and two years into his term, it's pretty clear than Ted Strickland has made a very good first impression on the people of Ohio. Of course we have 21 months until Election Day, but only about one in six voters or fewer say they are undecided. Strickland could lose them all and still win comfortably."
The clout that Strickland carries with the people of Ohio is best seen through the prism of his education initiatives. Only 43 percent of voters say they have heard "a lot" or "some" about the Governor's new plan for educational change, but 42 percent say they think it would improve education in the state, 22 percent say it would not, and 36 percent do not have an opinion.
Ohio voters support 62 - 34 percent Strickland's proposal to make all-day kindergarten mandatory statewide. Voters with children in public school support the proposal 75 - 24 percent.
Voters also support 64 - 29 percent requiring teachers to work nine years before they are eligible for tenure, instead of the current three-year requirement. Even Democrats, who tend to be pro-teacher, support the nine-year tenure requirement 63 - 30 percent.
From January 29 - February 2, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,127 Ohio voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. The survey includes 374 Republicans, with a margin of error of +/-5.1 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research.
1. (If registered Republican) As you may know there will be an election for Governor in Ohio in 2010. Thinking about the Republican primary for Governor, if the 2010 Republican primary for governor were being held today and the candidates were John Kasich, Mike DeWine and Kevin Coughlin, for whom would you vote?
Rep Kasich 22% DeWine 37 Coughlin 3 DK/NA 37
4. If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were Ted Strickland the Democrat and John Kasich the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Strickland 56% 17% 84% 58% 55% 58% 40% Kasich 26 66 6 18 28 24 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 DK/NA 16 15 9 22 15 17 15 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Strickland 62% 56% 52% 71% 52% 52% Kasich 32 23 24 19 31 25 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 1 3 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 2 - DK/NA 5 20 21 5 15 22
5. If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were Ted Strickland the Democrat and Mike DeWine the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Strickland 54% 16% 82% 55% 55% 54% 41% DeWine 32 76 9 26 32 33 50 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 2 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 DK/NA 11 7 8 15 10 12 7 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Strickland 63% 54% 49% 74% 54% 41% DeWine 30 32 36 17 32 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 1 4 - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 2 1 DK/NA 5 13 13 3 11 15
11. Is your opinion of -- Ted Strickland favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 60% 31% 78% 63% 61% 59% 50% Unfavorable 19 45 6 15 19 20 26 Hvn't hrd enough 17 20 15 18 17 18 19 REFUSED 3 4 - 4 2 3 5 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Favorable 68% 54% 66% 72% 57% 62% Unfavorable 15 22 20 16 22 17 Hvn't hrd enough 16 20 11 6 18 20 REFUSED 2 4 3 6 3 2
TREND: Is your opinion of -- Ted Strickland favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Feb 5 Dec 10 2009 2008 Favorable 60 47 Unfavorable 19 25 Hvn't hrd enough 17 26 REFUSED 3 2
12. Is your opinion of -- Mike DeWine favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 45% 58% 37% 44% 45% 45% 52% Unfavorable 23 13 29 26 27 20 16 Hvn't hrd enough 30 27 32 28 26 34 30 REFUSED 2 1 2 2 3 1 2 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Favorable 47% 45% 44% 39% 37% 52% Unfavorable 28 21 17 23 29 22 Hvn't hrd enough 23 32 34 36 32 26 REFUSED 1 2 5 2 2 1
TREND: Is your opinion of -- Mike DeWine favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Feb 5 Dec 10 2009 2008 Favorable 45 43 Unfavorable 23 24 Hvn't hrd enough 30 32 REFUSED 2 1
13. Is your opinion of -- John Kasich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 21% 37% 12% 20% 26% 17% 27% Unfavorable 6 1 8 10 9 4 3 Hvn't hrd enough 71 61 79 69 65 78 69 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Favorable 44% 17% 14% 23% 17% 13% Unfavorable 16 4 2 2 6 7 Hvn't hrd enough 38 79 84 74 76 80 REFUSED 3 1 - 1 1 -
TREND: Is your opinion of -- John Kasich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Feb 5 Dec 10 2009 2008 Favorable 21 18 Unfavorable 6 8 Hvn't hrd enough 71 73 REFUSED 1 1
14. Is your opinion of -- Kevin Coughlin favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 5% 6% 5% 4% 5% 4% 6% Unfavorable 3 2 3 3 3 3 4 Hvn't hrd enough 91 90 91 92 90 93 90 REFUSED 1 2 1 1 2 - 1 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Favorable 4% 7% 5% 3% 4% 2% Unfavorable 2 3 4 2 4 2 Hvn't hrd enough 93 89 90 95 90 96 REFUSED 1 1 1 - 2 1
21. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Strickland is handling his job as Governor?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 63% 33% 83% 65% 63% 62% 50% Disapprove 25 49 12 22 25 26 36 DK/NA 12 18 5 14 11 13 13 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Approve 70% 58% 64% 80% 57% 63% Disapprove 25 26 30 16 27 23 DK/NA 5 16 6 4 16 14
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Strickland is handling his job as Governor?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Feb 5 Dec 10 Aug 14 Jun 4 Feb 25 Feb 5 Feb 1 2009 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2007 Approve 63 54 60 55 56 63 45 Disapprove 25 25 25 23 19 25 12 DK/NA 12 22 15 23 25 12 43
27. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Ohio today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Very satisfied 2% 1% 4% 2% 2% 3% 3% Smwht satisfied 31 24 39 28 31 31 28 Smwht dissatisfied 37 43 34 35 39 36 35 Very dissatisfied 28 31 21 33 28 29 33 DK/NA 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Very satisfied 2% 2% 1% 11% 2% 2% Smwht satisfied 33 27 31 45 35 30 Smwht dissatisfied 38 39 36 25 40 33 Very dissatisfied 25 31 32 19 24 34 DK/NA 2 2 - 1 - 1
TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Ohio today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? (*also low of 33% on 12/11/08)
VERY+SMWHT.... High Low Feb 5 Dec 11 Aug 14 Jun 4 Sep 5 Mar 21 Feb 5 2009 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 2009 Very satisfied 2 3 3 4 3 5 2 Smwht satisfied 31 30 36 36 46 49 31 Smwht dissatisfied 37 35 37 33 31 28 37 Very dissatisfied 28 31 23 26 18 16 28 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
28. Do you think that Ted Strickland has kept his campaign promises so far or not?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Yes 46% 27% 62% 44% 48% 44% 40% No 27 42 18 25 27 27 31 DK/NA 27 31 20 31 25 29 29 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Yes 60% 42% 39% 61% 43% 40% No 18 26 37 21 32 32 DK/NA 22 31 24 17 25 28
TREND: Do you think that Ted Strickland has kept his campaign promises so far or not?
Feb 5 Dec 11 Aug 14 Jun 4 2009 2008 2008 2008 Yes 46 44 47 46 No 27 26 31 30 DK/NA 27 30 22 24
29. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Strickland is handling the economy?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 44% 22% 63% 41% 46% 43% 36% Disapprove 37 58 22 37 37 37 46 DK/NA 19 20 15 22 17 20 18 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Approve 54% 41% 42% 59% 37% 43% Disapprove 33 36 40 28 45 38 DK/NA 13 23 17 14 18 19
41. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Strickland is handling the state budget?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 48% 29% 66% 42% 53% 44% 39% Disapprove 30 48 19 31 30 31 37 DK/NA 21 23 15 26 17 25 24 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Approve 63% 45% 45% 53% 41% 44% Disapprove 23 33 25 24 39 32 DK/NA 14 22 30 23 20 25
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Strickland is handling the state budget?
Feb 5 Dec 11 2009 2008 Approve 48 41 Disapprove 30 31 DK/NA 21 29
42. To balance the state budget next year, if you had to choose, which would you prefer - raising taxes to keep state services at their current level or cutting state services to keep taxes at their current level?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Raising taxes 30% 13% 45% 27% 31% 29% 20% Cutting services 59 77 43 62 61 56 67 DK/NA 12 10 12 11 7 15 13 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Raising taxes 34% 30% 23% 30% 30% 28% Cutting services 59 59 57 52 59 58 DK/NA 7 11 20 17 10 13
TREND: To balance the state budget next year, if you had to choose, which would you prefer - raising taxes to keep state services at their current level or cutting state services to keep taxes at their current level?
Feb 5 Dec 11 2009 2008 Raising taxes 30 24 Cutting services 59 62 DK/NA 12 13
43. Governor Strickland has ruled out raising state taxes to alleviate Ohio's budget situation. Do you agree with him that taxes should not be raised, or do you think that some tax increase should be considered?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl No tax increase 57% 69% 45% 64% 57% 57% 67% Consider increases 39 30 52 32 40 39 31 DK/NA 3 2 3 4 3 4 1 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt No tax increase 56% 61% 57% 61% 48% 55% Consider increases 42 36 36 37 48 38 DK/NA 2 2 7 2 4 6
TREND: Governor Strickland has ruled out raising state taxes to alleviate Ohio's budget situation. Do you agree with him that taxes should not be raised, or do you think that some tax increase should be considered?
Feb 5 Dec 11 2009 2008 No tax increases 57 64 Consider increases 39 33 DK/NA 3 3
44. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Strickland is handling education?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 48% 27% 63% 49% 51% 47% 41% Disapprove 27 40 18 26 28 26 30 DK/NA 24 33 19 24 21 27 29 HvChldIn Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt PubSch Approve 54% 45% 54% 53% 46% 48% 56% Disapprove 26 28 23 23 31 27 29 DK/NA 20 27 23 24 23 25 15
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Strickland is handling education? (*Governor Strickland)
Feb 5 Dec 11 May 15 2009 2008 2005* Approve 48 41 41 Disapprove 27 34 30 DK/NA 24 26 29
45. Governor Strickland has offered a new education plan for Ohio that would affect how schools are funded, how students are taught and how teachers are trained. How much have you heard or read about Strickland's new education plan? A lot, some, not much, or nothing at all?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl A lot 11% 8% 12% 11% 10% 12% 10% Some 32 30 34 31 33 32 25 Not much 31 30 30 33 33 29 32 Nothing 25 31 22 25 24 27 32 DK/NA 1 1 1 - - 1 1 HvChldIn Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt PubSch A lot 17% 10% 10% 7% 7% 12% 13% Some 37 33 27 40 27 31 30 Not much 26 29 42 18 33 38 30 Nothing 21 28 20 34 30 19 27 DK/NA - - 1 - 2 - -
46. Do you think Governor Strickland's plan will improve education in Ohio or not?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Yes 42% 26% 52% 44% 43% 40% 36% No 22 33 13 23 22 22 26 DK/NA 36 41 35 33 34 37 38 HvChldIn Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt PubSch Yes 53% 37% 38% 46% 43% 40% 50% No 17 25 20 29 20 23 18 DK/NA 30 38 42 25 37 37 32
47. Governor Strickland has said that he will raise the amount of money that the state gives local school districts, but he will not raise state taxes to pay for it. Local districts would be allowed to raise taxes, but they would not have to. If the Governor's plan goes into effect, Do you think you will pay more taxes to support education than you are paying now or not?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Yes/Will 69% 74% 69% 64% 72% 66% 69% No/Will not 22 13 24 28 20 24 21 DK/NA 9 12 7 9 8 10 10 HvChldIn Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt PubSch Yes/Will 69% 66% 74% 70% 72% 71% 71% No/Will not 24 25 17 20 18 21 23 DK/NA 7 9 9 10 10 8 6
48. Would you be willing to pay more in taxes to increase the amount of money that goes to schools in Ohio or not?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Yes 51% 34% 66% 48% 52% 50% 41% No 45 59 31 49 44 45 53 DK/NA 5 7 3 2 4 5 6 HvChldIn Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt PubSch Yes 54% 47% 52% 56% 49% 56% 71% No 44 47 46 37 48 39 25 DK/NA 2 6 2 6 3 5 4
49. Governor Strickland wants to increase the school year in Ohio from its current 180 days to 200 days. The increase would take effect over a 10-year period. Do you support or oppose increasing the school year to 200 days?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Support 51% 42% 56% 55% 52% 50% 45% Oppose 42 48 38 38 42 42 46 DK/NA 7 11 6 7 7 8 9 HvChldIn Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt PubSch Support 60% 46% 43% 51% 45% 62% 51% Oppose 35 45 47 46 46 33 45 DK/NA 5 9 10 4 9 5 5
50. Governor Strickland wants to increase the length of the school day in Ohio. Do you support or oppose increasing the length of the school day?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Support 36% 28% 41% 37% 39% 33% 28% Oppose 56 61 51 57 53 58 64 DK/NA 8 11 7 6 8 8 8 HvChldIn Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt PubSch Support 43% 30% 36% 33% 38% 41% 43% Oppose 50 58 59 61 57 53 51 DK/NA 7 12 5 6 5 6 6
51. Governor Strickland wants to make all-day kindergarten mandatory statewide. Do you support or oppose all-day kindergarten?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Support 62% 50% 72% 64% 59% 65% 55% Oppose 34 43 24 34 37 30 40 DK/NA 4 7 3 2 4 5 4 HvChldIn Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt PubSch Support 65% 63% 73% 70% 56% 53% 75% Oppose 32 32 24 27 41 41 24 DK/NA 3 5 3 3 3 6 1
52. In general, do you think the requirements for graduation from Ohio's public high schools are too strict, not strict enough, or about right?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Too strict 9% 8% 12% 6% 8% 10% 9% Not strict enough 38 46 31 39 41 35 36 About right 45 39 51 42 43 47 47 DK/NA 8 8 6 12 8 9 9 HvChldIn Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt PubSch Too strict 14% 9% 4% 8% 6% 9% 11% Not strict enough 33 39 26 31 47 43 28 About right 43 44 61 50 42 41 57 DK/NA 11 8 8 12 5 7 4
53. Currently, students must pass the same statewide exam, the Ohio Graduation Test, to graduate from high school. Do you think that Ohio should require all students to pass the same statewide test to graduate or don't you think so?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Yes 66% 66% 66% 64% 69% 63% 62% No 30 29 30 31 28 31 34 DK/NA 5 5 4 5 3 6 5 HvChldIn Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt PubSch Yes 54% 64% 72% 62% 77% 72% 64% No 39 31 26 32 19 25 33 DK/NA 8 5 2 5 4 3 3
54. Generally Ohio public school teachers are eligible for tenure after three years of teaching. Governor Strickland wants to require nine years of teaching to be eligible for tenure. Do you support or oppose requiring nine years of teaching for Ohio public school teachers to be eligible for tenure?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Support 64% 70% 63% 60% 67% 61% 67% Oppose 29 21 30 34 29 29 25 DK/NA 8 9 6 7 4 11 8 HvChldIn Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt PubSch Support 63% 65% 65% 66% 62% 61% 71% Oppose 30 28 28 23 33 30 26 DK/NA 7 8 7 11 5 9 3