Ohio (OH) Poll * September 16, 2009 * Obama Back Over 50% In Ohio, Q - Quinnipiac University

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September 16, 2009 - Obama Back Over 50% In Ohio, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; All Dems Doing Better, But Voters Split On Health Care

Word format President Barack Obama's job approval among Ohio voters is 53 - 42 percent, up slightly from 49 - 44 percent July 7, but voters split 44 - 44 percent in their support of his health care plan, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
The independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey also finds a general uptick for Democrats in the Buckeye State over the summer, evidencing itself in higher approval ratings and slightly stronger showings for the party's candidates for the U.S. Senate.
In the face-off for the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher has opened a 26 - 17 percent lead over Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, with 55 percent undecided, while in the GOP intraparty fight former U.S. Rep. Rob Portman leads Cleveland area car dealer Tom Ganley 27 - 9 percent, with 61 percent undecided.
In general election matchups:
Fisher tops Portman 42 - 31 percent and Ganley 41 - 29 percent; Brunner tops Portman 39 - 34 percent and Ganley 39 - 31 percent.
"Perhaps it's because the poll was taken immediately after the President's nationally-televised prime-time speech to Congress, but Democratic fortunes in Ohio have improved slightly across-the- board," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Not only have the President's numbers improved, but so have those of Gov. Ted Strickland and the party's two U.S. Senate candidates."
"Getting back above 50 percent in Ohio, a critical swing state, could be important for Obama, but this is a far cry from his 62 - 31 percent grade in a May 6 Quinnipiac University poll," Brown added.
"Ohioans seem to like Obama more than his policies," said Brown. "Their rating of his job handling the economy flipped from 46 - 48 percent negative in July to 48 - 46 percent positive in September, while on health care they are split down the middle.
"The pattern is similar: strong Democratic support and Republican opposition, with independent voters tipping negative.
"But the good news for the President is that by a 49 - 28 percent margin voters say they trust him more than congressional Republicans to handle health care. And voters say 50 - 33 percent that congressional Republicans are more interested in seeing Obama fail than in playing a constructive role in health care reform. "
Ohio voters support 57 - 35 percent the idea of giving American consumers the option of buying health insurance from a government-run plan. But by a much larger 68 - 24 percent margin, voters don't believe the President will be able to keep his promise to pass a health care overhaul that does not add to the federal budget deficit.
"President Obama's televised speech seems to make a positive impression," said Brown.
One in four voters - 24 percent - say the speech makes them more likely to support the health care plan while 16 percent say it makes them less likely. Forty-three percent of Democrats say it makes them more likely, with 7 percent less likely. Among Republicans it is 28 - 11 percent less likely, while independents split 15 - 16 percent less likely.
From September 10 - 13, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,074 Ohio voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. The survey includes 375 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 5 percentage points and 421 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.8 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data and RSS feed - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
1. (If registered Republican) If the 2010 Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Rob Portman and Tom Ganley, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED REPS.. Tot Men Wom Portman 27% 32% 22% Ganley 9 10 9 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 2 DK/NA 61 55 66
TREND: (If registered Republican) If the 2010 Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Rob Portman and Tom Ganley, for whom would you vote? (*Someone Else & Wouldn't Vote volunteered options not in option list)
REGISTERED REPUBLICANS............... Sep 16 Jul 7 May 6 Mar 18 Feb 4 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009* Portman 27 33 29 31 33 Ganley 9 10 8 na na Taylor na na 8 14 11 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 1 - DK/NA 61 55 54 52 56
2. (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Lee Fisher and Jennifer Brunner, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED DEMS.. Tot Men Wom Fisher 26% 32% 21% Brunner 17 13 20 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 4 - DK/NA 55 50 58
TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Lee Fisher and Jennifer Brunner, for whom would you vote? (*Someone Else & Wouldn't Vote volunteered options not in option list / na = not asked)
REGISTERED DEMOCRATS................. Sep 16 Jul 7 May 6 Mar 18 Feb 4 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009* Fisher 26 24 20 18 18 Brunner 17 21 16 14 16 Yates na na 4 6 na Ryan na na na 12 14 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 1 2 - DK/NA 55 51 59 46 53
4. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Lee Fisher the Democrat and Rob Portman the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Fisher 42% 13% 74% 32% 40% 44% 32% Portman 31 68 4 30 37 26 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 26 19 20 36 21 29 21 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Fisher 38% 50% 38% 45% 38% 32% Portman 30 26 26 15 47 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 1 - 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - 2 5 - - DK/NA 32 24 34 36 13 25
TREND: If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Lee Fisher the Democrat and Rob Portman the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Sep 16 Jul 7 May 6 Mar 18 Feb 4 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Fisher 42 37 42 41 42 Portman 31 33 31 33 27 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 - 2 1 DK/NA 26 26 26 24 29
5. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Lee Fisher the Democrat and Tom Ganley the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Fisher 41% 10% 77% 30% 41% 42% 29% Ganley 29 64 2 30 33 26 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 3 1 1 1 DK/NA 27 24 20 35 23 30 25 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Fisher 38% 47% 40% 53% 38% 30% Ganley 32 27 24 15 31 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 - 4 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 2 2 5 - 1 DK/NA 29 24 33 28 27 28
TREND: If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Lee Fisher the Democrat and Tom Ganley the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Sep 16 Jul 7 2009 2009 Fisher 41 36 Ganley 29 30 SMONE ELSE(VOL 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 DK/NA 27 31
6. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Jennifer Brunner the Democrat and Tom Ganley the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Brunner 39% 6% 70% 35% 37% 41% 26% Ganley 31 71 5 25 36 27 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 3 3 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 3 2 1 2 DK/NA 27 22 23 34 22 31 25 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Brunner 41% 43% 38% 43% 36% 31% Ganley 27 30 31 18 38 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 - 2 5 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 2 7 - 1 DK/NA 30 25 28 33 24 24
TREND: If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Jennifer Brunner the Democrat and Tom Ganley the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Sep 16 Jul 7 2009 2009 Brunner 39 35 Ganley 31 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 DK/NA 27 31
7. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Jennifer Brunner the Democrat and Rob Portman the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Brunner 39% 8% 69% 36% 37% 42% 26% Portman 34 74 5 30 40 28 50 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 - 1 DK/NA 25 18 24 32 20 29 22 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Brunner 39% 45% 40% 39% 33% 32% Portman 33 28 29 23 50 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 - - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 - 5 - - DK/NA 27 26 30 33 17 24
TREND: If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Jennifer Brunner the Democrat and Rob Portman the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Sep 16 Jul 7 May 6 Mar 18 Feb 4 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Brunner 39 35 40 39 38 Portman 34 34 32 34 28 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 1 DK/NA 25 29 27 25 31
10. Is your opinion of - Lee Fisher favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 33% 15% 56% 22% 35% 31% 22% Unfavorable 13 23 4 14 18 9 19 Hvn't hrd enough 54 61 40 62 46 60 58 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1 1 2 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Favorable 32% 39% 27% 30% 28% 24% Unfavorable 14 14 11 6 12 12 Hvn't hrd enough 54 46 61 64 58 62 REFUSED 1 1 1 - 1 1
TREND: Is your opinion of - Lee Fisher favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Sep 16 Jul 7 May 6 Mar 18 Feb 4 Dec 10 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 Favorable 33 29 37 32 33 23 Unfavorable 13 17 13 13 10 10 Hvn't hrd enough 54 53 48 54 55 66 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 2 1
11. Is your opinion of - Jennifer Brunner favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 27% 10% 47% 23% 29% 26% 19% Unfavorable 14 27 3 16 18 10 19 Hvn't hrd enough 58 63 49 61 52 63 62 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Favorable 29% 32% 25% 32% 19% 22% Unfavorable 19 12 10 7 18 12 Hvn't hrd enough 51 55 63 61 63 65 REFUSED - 1 3 - 1 1
TREND: Is your opinion of - Jennifer Brunner favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
Sep 16 Jul 7 May 6 Mar 18 Feb 4 Dec 10 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 Favorable 27 27 31 31 34 26 Unfavorable 14 16 12 14 10 24 Hvn't hrd enough 58 56 55 55 55 49 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1
12. Is your opinion of - Rob Portman favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 20% 39% 9% 18% 27% 14% 22% Unfavorable 7 3 14 4 9 6 8 Hvn't hrd enough 72 57 77 77 63 79 69 REFUSED 1 - - 1 1 1 1 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Favorable 15% 14% 9% 10% 51% 21% Unfavorable 8 5 7 3 16 6 Hvn't hrd enough 76 80 82 87 33 72 REFUSED - - 2 - - 1
TREND: Is your opinion of - Rob Portman favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Sep 16 Jul 7 May 6 Mar 18 Feb 4 Dec 10 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 Favorable 20 21 22 25 21 12 Unfavorable 7 6 9 7 6 7 Hvn't hrd enough 72 72 68 67 72 80 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1
13. Is your opinion of - Tom Ganley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 15% 28% 11% 8% 21% 10% 12% Unfavorable 5 3 9 1 6 4 5 Hvn't hrd enough 80 69 80 90 73 86 83 REFUSED - - - 1 1 - - Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Favorable 8% 20% 12% 7% 20% 12% Unfavorable 8 3 5 2 6 5 Hvn't hrd enough 84 77 81 91 73 82 REFUSED - - 1 - 1 1
TREND: Is your opinion of - Tom Ganley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Sep 16 Jul 3 May 6 2009 2009 2009 Favorable 15 12 6 Unfavorable 5 4 4 Hvn't hrd enough 80 83 89 REFUSED - 1 1
18. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Lee Fisher is handling his job as Ohio's lieutenant governor?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 44% 27% 62% 39% 44% 43% 35% Disapprove 21 37 9 21 24 18 29 DK/NA 35 36 29 40 31 39 36 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Approve 44% 50% 36% 38% 35% 40% Disapprove 22 21 17 10 25 21 DK/NA 34 29 47 52 40 38
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Lee Fisher is handling his job as Ohio's lieutenant governor?
Sep 16 Jul 7 May 6 2009 2009 2009 Approve 44 39 49 Disapprove 21 24 17 DK/NA 35 38 33
19. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jennifer Brunner is handling her job as Ohio's Secretary of State?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 41% 21% 60% 40% 39% 43% 28% Disapprove 23 40 8 24 28 18 35 DK/NA 36 40 32 36 32 40 37 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Approve 41% 46% 39% 42% 37% 34% Disapprove 29 21 17 28 19 23 DK/NA 30 33 44 30 44 43
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jennifer Brunner is handling her job as Ohio's Secretary of State? (*Low also 38% Aug 2008 & Jun 2008)
APPROVE...... High Low Sep 16 Jul 7 May 6 Mar 18 Feb 4 May 6 Jul 7 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009* Approve 41 38 45 41 44 45 38 Disapprove 23 25 20 19 16 20 25 DK/NA 36 37 34 39 41 34 37
20. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 53% 17% 88% 46% 48% 57% 31% Disapprove 42 79 8 47 46 39 64 DK/NA 5 4 3 7 5 4 5 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Approve 52% 59% 55% 44% 53% 40% Disapprove 44 36 41 48 42 54 DK/NA 4 5 4 8 4 6 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. NoColl Coll 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Degree Degree Approve 61% 50% 52% 58% 49% 44% 54% 50% Disapprove 35 45 43 36 48 53 40 47 DK/NA 3 4 6 6 3 2 5 3
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
Sep 16 Jul 7 May 6 Mar 18 Feb 6 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Approve 53 49 62 57 67 Disapprove 42 44 31 33 16 DK/NA 5 8 7 11 17
24. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the economy?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 48% 14% 83% 40% 47% 50% 29% Disapprove 46 83 11 51 48 44 66 DK/NA 6 3 6 9 5 7 5 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Approve 49% 53% 49% 39% 48% 38% Disapprove 45 42 47 56 45 54 DK/NA 6 5 4 5 7 8 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. NoColl Coll 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Degree Degree Approve 55% 45% 48% 52% 43% 42% 49% 45% Disapprove 41 48 46 41 52 54 44 50 DK/NA 4 7 7 7 5 4 6 5
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the economy?
Sep 16 Jul 7 May 6 Mar 18 Feb 6 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Approve 48 46 57 53 58 Disapprove 46 48 36 36 21 DK/NA 6 6 7 11 21
37. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling - health care?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 44% 18% 71% 39% 42% 46% 23% Disapprove 45 77 17 48 50 41 67 DK/NA 10 6 12 13 8 12 11 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. NoColl Coll 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Degree Degree Approve 54% 41% 42% 49% 37% 34% 46% 39% Disapprove 38 49 46 38 56 60 43 51 DK/NA 9 10 11 13 7 6 11 9
38. Do you support or oppose President Obama's health care reform plan?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Support 44% 15% 74% 37% 42% 45% 21% Oppose 44 79 14 46 48 41 65 DK/NA 12 6 12 17 10 14 13 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. NoColl Coll 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Degree Degree Support 47% 42% 44% 48% 39% 35% 46% 38% Oppose 40 46 44 37 54 57 41 53 DK/NA 13 11 12 15 7 8 13 9
39. Who do you trust to do a better job handling health care - President Obama or the Republicans in Congress?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl President Obama 49% 13% 82% 43% 45% 52% 28% Reps in Congress 28 64 6 21 31 26 44 DK/NA 23 23 11 36 25 22 28 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. NoColl Coll 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Degree Degree President Obama 57% 47% 47% 55% 40% 42% 51% 42% Reps in Congress 29 28 28 24 34 35 26 36 DK/NA 14 25 26 21 26 23 23 21
40. Do you support or oppose giving people the option of being covered by a government health insurance plan that would compete with private plans?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Support 57% 28% 79% 57% 56% 57% 39% Oppose 35 63 10 38 38 32 47 DK/NA 9 8 12 5 6 11 14 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. NoColl Coll 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Degree Degree Support 58% 61% 54% 64% 50% 53% 58% 52% Oppose 36 34 34 26 42 44 32 43 DK/NA 6 5 12 10 8 4 10 5
41. President Obama has pledged that health insurance reform will not add to our federal budget deficit over the next decade. Do you think that President Obama will be able to keep his promise or do you think any health care plan that Congress passes and President Obama signs will add to the federal budget deficit?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Will keep promise 24% 4% 44% 22% 20% 27% 12% Will add to deficit 68 91 45 72 74 62 82 DK/NA 8 6 11 6 6 11 6 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. NoColl Coll 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Degree Degree Will keep promise 33% 19% 24% 28% 17% 20% 27% 15% Will add to deficit 61 76 65 62 77 76 64 78 DK/NA 6 6 11 10 7 4 9 7
42. Did President Obama's speech to Congress on health care make you more likely to support his plan, less likely to support his plan, did it make no difference in your support, or haven't you heard anything about his speech?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl More likely 24% 11% 43% 15% 22% 26% 14% Less likely 16 28 7 16 18 15 26 Made no difference 41 47 30 48 46 37 41 Haven't heard 17 12 17 19 14 19 18 DK/NA 2 1 3 2 1 3 1 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. NoColl Coll 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Degree Degree More likely 16% 28% 27% 29% 20% 19% 25% 22% Less likely 8 18 18 15 18 17 16 16 Made no difference 51 38 37 31 48 58 38 49 Haven't heard 24 14 15 22 12 5 18 12 DK/NA - 3 3 3 2 - 3 1
43. Do you think Republicans in Congress are playing a constructive role in improving a health care reform bill or do you think they just want President Obama to fail?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Playing const role 33% 61% 11% 33% 33% 33% 40% Want Obama to fail 50 19 77 47 52 49 35 DK/NA 17 20 11 19 15 18 25 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. NoColl Coll 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Degree Degree Playing const role 36% 33% 31% 28% 36% 37% 30% 41% Want Obama to fail 57 50 48 54 48 50 51 47 DK/NA 7 17 21 17 16 14 18 12