Ohio (OH) Poll * November 11, 2009 * Republican Challenger Catches - Quinnipiac University

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November 11, 2009 - Republican Challenger Catches Ohio's Strickland, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Sagging Economy Pushes Governor To New Low

Word format Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland's lead over John Kasich in the 2010 race for reelection has dropped into a 40 - 40 percent tie, with Ohio voters seeing the possible Republican challenger as better able to handle rebuilding the state economy and handling the budget, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
This compares to a 46 - 36 percent Gov. Strickland lead in a September 15 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, up from 43 - 38 percent July 3.
Ohio voters approve 45 - 43 percent of the job Strickland is doing, down from 48 - 42 percent September 15 and his lowest overall score ever. And by a 43 - 32 percent margin, voters say the Governor has not kept his campaign promises.
"When Quinnipiac University first began asking about a Strickland-Kasich race for Governor in February, the incumbent held a 56 - 26 percent lead over his challenger. Now they are dead even. Obviously a lot has changed: the Governor's own ratings have gone down more than the challenger's have come up," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Moreover, when voters are asked who could do a better job handling the state budget and rebuilding the state economy they say Kasich. We still have a year to go, but Kasich is in much better shape than one could have imaged earlier this year."
Ohio voters give Strickland a split 38 - 37 percent favorability, his worst ratio ever. Kasich, a former Congressman and Fox News show host is a virtual unknown by comparison, with 23 percent seeing him favorably, 7 percent unfavorably and 69 percent saying they don't know enough about him to have an opinion.
"This race is about Ted Strickland. Because so few voters have a firm fix on Kasich, the campaign is likely to be a race to define him in the eyes of most voters," Brown added. "That will mean the Strickland campaign will be trying to convince those seven in 10 voters who don't know enough about Kasich that he isn't their kind of guy," said Brown. "In plain language that means we're likely to see a strongly negative campaign from both sides, as Kasich will almost certainly dwell on the alleged shortcomings of the Governor's record."
In the matchup, Kasich does better among Republicans, 76 - 9 percent, and independent voters, 39 - 34 percent, while the Governor is keeping Democrats 76 - 10 percent. There is almost no gender gap, generally a bad sign for Democrats. Women tip 40 - 38 percent for Strickland, while men lean to Kasich 43 - 41 percent.
Strickland gets a very low score for handling the economy, as voters disapprove 52 - 33 percent. When asked who could do a better job rebuilding the economy, 41 percent say Kasich; 33 percent Strickland. And voters say 42 - 34 percent that Kasich would do a better job handling the state budget.
"These numbers, even though they favor the challenger, say a lot more about Ted Strickland than they do about John Kasich because so few Ohioans know that much about him," said Brown.
The Ohio legislature, in which Democrats control the House and Republicans the Senate, gets a thumbs down from 47 percent of voters and is viewed positively by 33 percent. But when asked whether they would prefer having one party control both chambers, 52 percent say they prefer split control, while 22 percent would prefer Republicans running both houses and 19 percent want Democrats to be in charge of both.
U.S. Sen. George Voinovich gets a 47 - 36 percent job approval rating and Sen. Sherrod Brown gets a 46 - 31 percent score.
From November 5 - 9, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,123 Ohio voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582- 5201, or follow us on Twitter.
3. If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were Ted Strickland the Democrat and John Kasich the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Strickland 40% 9% 76% 34% 41% 40% 36% Kasich 40 76 10 39 43 38 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 2 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 - 1 1 DK/NA 18 14 13 25 14 21 15 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Strickland 34% 43% 47% 62% 31% 40% Kasich 52 36 23 30 44 50 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - - 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 1 1 - 1 DK/NA 13 19 29 6 23 10
TREND: If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were Ted Strickland the Democrat and John Kasich the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Nov 11 Sep 15 Jul 3 May 6 Mar 17 Feb 5 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Strickland 40 46 43 51 51 56 Kasich 40 36 38 32 31 26 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 2 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 2 1 DK/NA 18 15 16 16 15 16
8. Is your opinion of - Ted Strickland favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 38% 14% 62% 34% 38% 38% 29% Unfavorable 37 62 18 36 40 34 40 Hvn't hrd enough 23 22 17 28 20 26 28 REFUSED 2 2 3 2 2 3 2 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Favorable 37% 39% 25% 70% 32% 37% Unfavorable 43 35 34 25 33 44 Hvn't hrd enough 17 22 39 4 34 18 REFUSED 2 3 2 1 1 2
TREND: Is your opinion of - Ted Strickland favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Nov 11 Sep 15 Jul 3 May 6 Mar 17 Feb 5 Dec 10 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 Favorable 38 43 42 53 54 60 47 Unfavorable 37 34 37 25 26 19 25 Hvn't hrd enough 23 20 18 18 17 17 26 REFUSED 2 3 3 3 3 3 2
9. Is your opinion of - John Kasich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 23% 41% 9% 22% 29% 18% 27% Unfavorable 7 5 11 5 8 6 3 Hvn't hrd enough 69 54 79 72 62 75 68 REFUSED 1 - 1 - 1 1 1 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Favorable 47% 18% 9% 25% 22% 20% Unfavorable 12 6 3 11 4 6 Hvn't hrd enough 41 76 87 64 73 73 REFUSED - 1 1 1 1 1
TREND: Is your opinion of - John Kasich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Nov 11 Sep 15 Jul 3 May 6 Mar 17 Feb 5 Dec 10 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 Favorable 23 22 26 22 21 21 18 Unfavorable 7 10 7 7 6 6 8 Hvn't hrd enough 69 68 66 70 71 71 73 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1 1 1
14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Strickland is handling his job as governor?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 45% 20% 65% 47% 44% 45% 37% Disapprove 43 66 23 42 46 40 49 DK/NA 12 14 12 11 9 15 15 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Approve 42% 47% 33% 63% 51% 33% Disapprove 50 39 47 30 37 56 DK/NA 8 14 20 7 11 11
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Strickland is handling his job as governor? (*Low app also 45% Feb 2007)
APPROVE....... DIS... High Low High Nov 11 Sep 15 Jul 3 May 6 Feb 5 Nov 11 Nov 11 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009* 2009 Approve 45 48 46 57 63 45 45 Disapprove 43 42 42 29 25 43 43 DK/NA 12 10 12 13 12 12 12
15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Voinovich is handling his job as United States Senator?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 47% 53% 45% 49% 45% 48% 38% Disapprove 36 32 36 36 43 30 39 DK/NA 17 15 20 15 12 22 22 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Approve 49% 49% 33% 50% 44% 47% Disapprove 38 34 31 48 34 40 DK/NA 13 16 36 3 22 13
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Voinovich is handling his job as United States Senator? (*High also 55% Feb 2009)
APPROVE....... DIS.... High Low High Nov 11 Sep 15 Jul 7 May 6 May 6 Dec 13 Nov 11 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009* 2006 2009 Approve 47 52 52 55 55 41 47 Disapprove 36 34 29 30 30 33 36 DK/NA 17 14 19 15 15 26 17
16. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Sherrod Brown is handling his job as United States Senator?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 46% 26% 67% 43% 43% 48% 33% Disapprove 31 49 9 35 39 23 37 DK/NA 23 24 24 22 18 28 31 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Approve 38% 53% 39% 52% 37% 49% Disapprove 45 25 22 24 31 36 DK/NA 17 22 39 23 32 14
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Sherrod Brown is handling his job as United States Senator?
APPROVE....... DIS.... High Low High Nov 11 Sep 15 Jul 7 May 6 May 6 Jul 7 Sep 15 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Approve 46 48 41 52 52 41 48 Disapprove 31 33 29 24 24 29 33 DK/NA 23 20 30 24 24 30 20
17. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 33% 25% 40% 30% 36% 31% 28% Disapprove 47 62 34 49 50 44 48 DK/NA 20 13 25 20 14 26 24 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Approve 35% 34% 33% 48% 27% 28% Disapprove 51 44 47 43 48 50 DK/NA 14 22 20 9 25 23
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
APPROVE....... High Low Nov 11 Sep 15 Jul 3 May 6 Dec 10 Dec 10 Dec 12 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 2008 2006 Approve 33 33 31 36 46 46 25 Disapprove 47 48 49 40 35 35 55 DK/NA 20 19 20 24 19 19 20
21. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Ohio today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Very satisfied 3% 1% 5% 3% 5% 2% 2% Smwht satisfied 32 20 51 28 28 36 26 Smwht dissatisfied 37 45 27 39 35 39 38 Very dissatisfied 27 33 16 30 31 23 33 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 - Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Very satisfied 4% 3% - 13% 3% - Smwht satisfied 33 33 37 31 34 25 Smwht dissatisfied 39 40 39 20 31 38 Very dissatisfied 22 24 24 36 32 36 DK/NA 3 1 - - - -
TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Ohio today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
VERY+SMWHT.... High Low Nov 11 Sep 15 Jul 7 May 6 Mar 17 Mar 21 Mar 17 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2007 2009 Very satisfied 3 2 2 4 2 5 2 Smwht satisfied 32 37 31 39 30 49 30 Smwht dissatisfied 37 35 36 32 39 28 39 Very dissatisfied 27 25 30 24 28 16 28 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
22. Do you think that Ted Strickland has kept his campaign promises so far or not?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Yes 32% 17% 48% 32% 32% 32% 25% No 43 60 28 45 48 39 45 DK/NA 25 22 24 23 19 29 30 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Yes 33% 34% 25% 44% 30% 27% No 51 40 40 43 38 53 DK/NA 17 26 35 14 32 20
TREND: Do you think that Ted Strickland has kept his campaign promises so far or not?
YES.......... High Low Nov 11 Sep 15 Jul 3 May 6 Mar 17 Aug 14 Nov 11 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 2009 Yes 32 37 34 44 46 47 32 No 43 40 40 32 30 31 43 DK/NA 25 23 25 24 24 22 25
23. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Strickland is handling the economy?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 33% 14% 56% 32% 32% 34% 25% Disapprove 52 72 29 54 57 48 58 DK/NA 15 14 15 15 11 18 18 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Approve 32% 37% 26% 49% 27% 29% Disapprove 63 48 52 45 49 56 DK/NA 5 14 22 6 24 15
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Strickland is handling the economy?
Nov 11 Sep 15 Jul 3 May 6 Mar 17 Feb 5 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Approve 33 33 33 43 39 44 Disapprove 52 54 53 43 45 37 DK/NA 15 12 13 15 16 19
25. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job rebuilding Ohio's economy - Ted Strickland or John Kasich?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Strickland 33% 8% 60% 30% 35% 30% 26% Kasich 41 69 14 41 44 38 48 DK/NA 27 24 26 29 20 32 26 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Strickland 30% 38% 16% 51% 29% 29% Kasich 55 32 25 33 47 56 DK/NA 15 30 59 17 24 15
26. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job handling Ohio's state budget - Ted Strickland or John Kasich?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Strickland 34% 9% 59% 32% 36% 31% 27% Kasich 42 70 16 42 46 38 48 DK/NA 25 21 26 26 17 31 25 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Strickland 30% 39% 19% 56% 30% 27% Kasich 56 33 26 30 47 58 DK/NA 13 28 56 14 22 15
27. Currently, Democrats control the Ohio House and Republicans control the Ohio Senate. After the 2010 election would you prefer that the Democrats control both houses of the legislature, the Republicans control both houses of the legislature, or would you prefer that control is split as it is today?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Dems control both 19% 2% 48% 10% 19% 20% 12% Reps control both 22 60 1 14 25 20 30 Split 52 35 49 64 51 53 53 DK/NA 6 3 3 12 5 7 5 Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt Dems control both 12% 23% 23% 28% 17% 16% Reps control both 28 20 18 17 25 25 Split 56 52 55 45 45 56 DK/NA 4 6 4 9 13 3