Ohio (OH) Poll * February 24, 2010 * Fisher Ahead In Ohio Dem Prima - Quinnipiac University

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February 24, 2010 - Fisher Ahead In Ohio Dem Primary, But Trails Portman, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Tea Party Scores Better Than Dems, GOP

Word format Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher has opened up a 29 - 20 percent lead over Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner in the race for the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate, up from 24 - 22 percent November 12, but both Democrats trail Republican Rob Portman by small margins, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
Less than one in five Ohioans think the federal government does the right thing almost all or most of the time, and less than a quarter of the state's voters feel that way about state government, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey finds. Ohio voters have a net positive image of the Tea Party movement, but net negative views of the Republican and Democratic parties.
In general election matchups:
Portman leads Fisher 40 - 37 percent, including 39 - 27 percent among independent voters; Portman tops Brunner 40 - 35 percent, including 40 - 28 percent among independents.
"Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher has put some distance between himself and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, but 48 percent of Democrats are undecided about who to support in the May 4 primary," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Fisher rates slightly higher than Ms. Brunner on a number of measures of support."
Among Democrats Fisher is viewed favorably 47 - 3 percent, with 50 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion. Ms. Brunner gets a 37 - 3 percent favorability among Democrats, with 60 percent who don't know enough.
Ohio Democrats are evenly divided in a closer look at the two U.S. Senate candidates:
Saying 34 - 31 percent that Fisher is more likely than Brunner to do in office what he promises in the campaign; Feeling 31 - 29 percent that he, rather than she, most shares their values; Gauging 28 - 26 percent that Fisher is more liberal.
Among all Ohio voters, the Democratic Party gets a 38 - 50 percent unfavorable rating, while the Republicans get a 37 - 46 percent unfavorable score.
But voters have a 32 - 23 percent favorable opinion of the Tea Party movement, with 43 percent who haven't heard enough about it to form an opinion. Democrats view the Tea Party unfavorably by 42 - 7 percent, while Republicans are favorable 53 - 8 percent and independent voters like it 36 - 20 percent. Men like the Tea Party 40 - 25 percent, while women like it 25 - 22 percent.
Going hand-in-hand with that finding is that only 1 percent of Ohioans say the federal government does the right thing "almost all the time," while 15 percent say it does the right thing "most of the time." Conversely 42 percent say it does the right thing "only some of the time" and 40 percent say it "hardly ever" does the right thing.
Voter faith in Columbus is slightly better as 2 percent say state government does the right thing "almost all the time" and 20 percent say "most of the time." But 57 percent say "some of the time" and only 20 percent say "hardly ever."
"It is clear that the voter anger is bipartisan. They are fed up with both parties. Whether the Tea Party movement becomes a significant political force will be seen in the May primary and the November election, but clearly it has the potential to be a big factor in elections this year," said Brown.
Ohio voters approve 51 - 32 percent of the job U.S. Sen. George Voinovich is doing and approve 43 - 30 percent of the job Sen. Sherrod Brown is doing.
From February 16 - 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,662 Ohio voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. The survey includes 604 Democrats, with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.
1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Lee Fisher and Jennifer Brunner, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED DEMS.. Tot Men Wom Fisher 29% 39% 21% Brunner 20 19 21 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 DK/NA 48 37 55
TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Lee Fisher and Jennifer Brunner, for whom would you vote? (*Someone Else & Wouldn't Vote volunteered options not in option list / na = not asked)
REGISTERED DEMOCRATS................................. Feb 24 Nov 12 Sep 16 Jul 7 May 6 Mar 18 Feb 4 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009* Fisher 29 24 26 24 20 18 18 Brunner 20 22 17 21 16 14 16 Yates na na na na 4 6 na Ryan na na na na na 12 14 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 2 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 3 1 2 - DK/NA 48 51 55 51 59 46 53
3. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Lee Fisher the Democrat and Rob Portman the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Fisher 37% 6% 79% 27% 35% 38% 27% Portman 40 77 6 39 45 35 52 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - - 5 3 2 1 DK/NA 21 17 14 28 17 25 20 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Fisher 35% 43% 38% 31% 26% 33% 45% Portman 44 34 30 28 62 38 38 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 3 9 1 1 3 DK/NA 19 22 28 32 10 27 13
TREND: If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Lee Fisher the Democrat and Rob Portman the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Feb 24 Nov 12 Sep 16 Jul 7 May 6 Mar 18 Feb 4 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Fisher 37 36 42 37 42 41 42 Portman 40 39 31 33 31 33 27 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 1 2 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 2 - 2 1 DK/NA 21 24 26 26 26 24 29
4. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Jennifer Brunner the Democrat and Rob Portman the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Brunner 35% 6% 74% 28% 32% 38% 22% Portman 40 75 7 40 48 33 52 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 3 2 1 2 DK/NA 23 18 18 29 18 27 24 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Brunner 35% 41% 33% 39% 25% 30% 43% Portman 42 33 39 29 63 38 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - - - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 4 1 1 2 1 DK/NA 22 24 23 31 11 29 19
TREND: If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Jennifer Brunner the Democrat and Rob Portman the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Feb 24 Nov 12 Sep 16 Jul 7 May 6 Mar 18 Feb 4 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Brunner 35 34 39 35 40 39 38 Portman 40 38 34 34 32 34 28 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 1 1 - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 1 - 2 1 DK/NA 23 27 25 29 27 25 31
7. Is your opinion of - Lee Fisher favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 26% 12% 47% 22% 26% 26% 22% Unfavorable 12 18 3 14 16 8 12 Hvn't hrd enough 61 67 50 64 57 64 65 REFUSED 1 3 1 1 1 2 1 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Favorable 25% 33% 17% 19% 16% 24% 33% Unfavorable 12 14 12 6 9 10 9 Hvn't hrd enough 61 51 70 75 74 62 58 REFUSED 2 1 1 - - 4 1
TREND: Is your opinion of - Lee Fisher favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
FAVORABLE..... High Low Feb 24 Nov 12 Sep 16 Jul 7 May 6 May 6 Dec 10 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 Favorable 26 25 33 29 37 37 23 Unfavorable 12 15 13 17 13 13 10 Hvn't hrd enough 61 58 54 53 48 48 66 REFUSED 1 2 1 1 1 1 1
8. Is your opinion of - Jennifer Brunner favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 21% 7% 37% 20% 21% 21% 14% Unfavorable 12 22 3 13 16 9 16 Hvn't hrd enough 66 69 60 67 62 70 69 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 - - Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Favorable 24% 22% 19% 20% 14% 23% 29% Unfavorable 17 10 10 8 13 16 10 Hvn't hrd enough 58 68 71 72 73 61 60 REFUSED 2 1 - - - - 1
TREND: Is your opinion of - Jennifer Brunner favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
FAVORABLE..... High Low Feb 24 Nov 12 Sep 16 Jul 7 May 6 Feb 4 Nov 12 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Favorable 21 20 27 27 31 34 20 Unfavorable 12 18 14 16 12 10 18 Hvn't hrd enough 66 61 58 56 55 55 61 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
9. Is your opinion of - Rob Portman favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 25% 39% 8% 29% 31% 20% 28% Unfavorable 7 3 14 7 10 5 4 Hvn't hrd enough 66 57 78 63 57 74 67 REFUSED 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Favorable 23% 18% 20% 18% 55% 24% 23% Unfavorable 8 7 2 11 14 3 12 Hvn't hrd enough 69 73 78 71 31 69 65 REFUSED 1 2 - - 1 4 1
TREND: Is your opinion of - Rob Portman favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? (*High also 25% Mar 2009)
FAVORABLE..... High Low Feb 24 Nov 12 Sep 16 Jul 7 May 6 Feb 24 Dec 10 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010* 2008 Favorable 25 22 20 21 22 25 12 Unfavorable 7 7 7 6 9 7 7 Hvn't hrd enough 66 70 72 72 68 66 80 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
10. Is your opinion of the Republican Party favorable, unfavorable, or haven't you heard enough about it?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 37% 80% 7% 30% 38% 37% 51% Unfavorable 46 12 77 48 47 46 35 Hvn't hrd enough 13 6 13 17 11 15 11 REFUSED 3 3 2 4 4 3 3 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Favorable 45% 36% 32% 29% 40% 32% 39% Unfavorable 40 48 51 59 44 46 52 Hvn't hrd enough 13 12 13 7 14 16 7 REFUSED 2 3 4 6 2 6 3
11. Is your opinion of the Democratic Party favorable, unfavorable, or haven't you heard enough about it?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 38% 6% 82% 26% 32% 43% 29% Unfavorable 50 84 9 56 59 41 63 Hvn't hrd enough 10 5 8 14 7 12 7 REFUSED 3 5 2 3 2 4 2 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Favorable 35% 42% 38% 39% 33% 30% 51% Unfavorable 52 48 47 43 53 53 39 Hvn't hrd enough 9 8 12 10 12 12 5 REFUSED 4 3 3 8 2 5 5
12. Is your opinion of the Tea Party movement favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about it?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Favorable 32% 53% 7% 36% 40% 25% 44% Unfavorable 23 8 42 20 25 22 14 Hvn't hrd enough 43 36 51 43 34 51 41 REFUSED 2 3 1 1 1 2 1 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Favorable 33% 29% 28% 46% 40% 32% 31% Unfavorable 25 25 20 16 20 20 29 Hvn't hrd enough 40 45 49 37 40 44 39 REFUSED 1 1 3 1 1 4 1
14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Sherrod Brown is handling his job as United States Senator?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 43% 27% 66% 40% 39% 47% 38% Disapprove 30 42 12 34 41 21 35 DK/NA 26 31 22 26 19 33 27 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Approve 40% 50% 38% 36% 34% 45% 48% Disapprove 31 30 37 33 28 26 28 DK/NA 28 20 25 31 38 28 24
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Sherrod Brown is handling his job as United States Senator?
APPROVE....... DIS.... High Low High Feb 24 Nov 11 Sep 15 Jul 7 May 6 Jul 7 Sep 15 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Approve 43 46 48 41 52 41 48 Disapprove 30 31 33 29 24 29 33 DK/NA 26 23 20 30 24 30 20
15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Voinovich is handling his job as United States Senator?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 51% 55% 53% 49% 47% 54% 48% Disapprove 32 26 30 36 39 26 31 DK/NA 17 18 17 15 14 20 21 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Approve 52% 55% 50% 39% 43% 50% 49% Disapprove 31 32 31 39 31 33 37 DK/NA 16 13 19 22 26 18 15
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Voinovich is handling his job as United States Senator? (*High also 55% Feb 2009)
APPROVE....... DIS.... High Low High Feb 24 Nov 11 Sep 15 Jul 7 May 6 Dec 13 Nov 11 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009* 2006 2009 Approve 51 47 52 52 55 41 47 Disapprove 32 36 34 29 30 33 36 DK/NA 17 17 14 19 15 26 17
17. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Lee Fisher is handling his job as Ohio's Lieutenant Governor?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 39% 24% 59% 37% 38% 41% 38% Disapprove 22 32 10 22 26 18 24 DK/NA 39 44 30 41 36 41 39 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Approve 40% 42% 37% 35% 38% 34% 47% Disapprove 23 22 22 31 18 24 18 DK/NA 38 36 41 34 45 42 35
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Lee Fisher is handling his job as Ohio's Lieutenant Governor?
Feb 24 Nov 12 Sep 16 Jul 7 May 6 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 Approve 39 39 44 39 49 Disapprove 22 23 21 24 17 DK/NA 39 37 35 38 33
18. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jennifer Brunner is handling her job as Ohio's Secretary of State?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Approve 36% 17% 56% 37% 33% 39% 28% Disapprove 25 43 9 24 31 19 28 DK/NA 39 40 35 39 36 42 44 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Approve 39% 36% 43% 30% 31% 34% 42% Disapprove 26 21 22 30 26 32 24 DK/NA 35 43 34 39 42 33 34
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jennifer Brunner is handling her job as Ohio's Secretary of State?
APPROVE...... High Low Feb 24 Nov 12 Sep 16 Jul 7 May 6 May 6 Feb 24 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 Approve 36 38 41 38 45 45 36 Disapprove 25 25 23 25 20 20 25 DK/NA 39 37 36 37 34 34 39
30. (If registered Democrat) Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you - trust more to do in office what they say they will do during the campaign Lee Fisher or Jennifer Brunner?
REGISTERED DEMS.. Tot Men Wom Fisher 34% 40% 30% Brunner 31 29 33 NO DIFF(VOL) 4 4 3 DK/NA 31 27 34
31. (If registered Democrat) Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you - believe most shares your values Lee Fisher or Jennifer Brunner?
REGISTERED DEMS.. Tot Men Wom Fisher 31% 36% 28% Brunner 29 25 32 NO DIFF(VOL) 2 2 1 DK/NA 38 37 39
32. (If registered Democrat) Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you - see as more consistently liberal Lee Fisher or Jennifer Brunner?
REGISTERED DEMS.. Tot Men Wom Fisher 28% 32% 25% Brunner 26 27 25 NO DIFF(VOL) 3 3 3 DK/NA 43 38 47
33. (If registered Democrat) Does the fact that Jennifer Brunner is a woman make it more likely you will vote for her in the primary, less likely, or doesn't it make a difference?
REGISTERED DEMS.. Tot Men Wom More likely 11% 2% 16% Less likely 3 4 2 Doesn't make diff 85 93 80 DK/NA 1 1 1
34. How much of the time do you think you can trust the government in Washington to do what is right - almost all of the time, most of the time, only some of the time, or hardly ever?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Almost all the time 1% 1% 3% 1% 1% 1% 1% Most of the time 15 8 24 11 13 16 13 Some of the time 42 39 53 40 36 48 40 Hardly ever 40 51 20 47 48 33 45 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Almost all the time 3% 1% 1% 1% 3% 1% 1% Most of the time 13 16 15 10 10 19 15 Some of the time 42 46 37 35 40 41 44 Hardly ever 41 36 42 52 46 39 38 DK/NA 1 1 4 3 1 - 1
35. How much of the time do you think you can trust the state government in Columbus to do what is right - almost all of the time, most of the time, only some of the time, or hardly ever?
WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl Almost all the time 2% 1% 4% 2% 1% 3% 1% Most of the time 20 17 27 16 20 19 20 Some of the time 57 58 55 59 53 60 61 Hardly ever 20 22 13 21 24 16 16 DK/NA 2 2 1 1 1 2 - Union Cntrl NrthE NrthW SthE SthW WstCnt HsHld Almost all the time 1% 2% 3% 1% 4% 2% - Most of the time 26 18 14 17 18 21 19 Some of the time 56 59 61 47 53 56 56 Hardly ever 16 18 18 34 24 20 23 DK/NA - 2 4 1 1 1 1