Ohio (OH) Poll * September 19, 2006 * Democrat Has 21-Point Lead In - Quinnipiac University

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September 19, 2006 - Democrat Has 21-Point Lead In Ohio Governor's Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Disapprove Of Gov. Taft 5 - 1

In the Ohio Governor's race, Democratic U.S. Rep. Ted Strickland has a commanding 55 - 34 percent lead over Republican Secretary of State Ken Blackwell, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters released today. Only 10 percent are undecided.
Rep. Strickland leads 88 - 6 percent among Democratic likely voters, and 54 - 31 percent among independent voters, while Blackwell leads 71 - 18 percent among Republicans, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Men favor the Democrat 51 - 40 percent, while women back Strickland 60 - 28 percent.
Among Strickland supporters, 84 percent say their mind is made up, with 78 percent of Blackwell supporters saying they are locked in.
"Rep. Strickland's lead is solid and uniform. He is ahead among men and women and the critical independent voters. And his supporters are more likely to say they won't change their mind than are Secretary of State Blackwell's," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Given that the vast majority of voters say they have made up their minds, Blackwell has a steep hill to climb. More Ohioans view him unfavorably than favorably and changing a voters' mind is a difficult task for candidates once the voter has formed an opinion."
Ohio voters disapprove 78 - 14 percent of the job Gov. Robert Taft is doing and disapprove 55 - 40 percent of the job President George W. Bush is doing.
"Obviously, Gov. Taft's troubles and President Bush's poor ratings are rubbing off on their fellow Republican," Brown said.
By a 48 - 29 percent margin, Ohio voters think Strickland would do a better job ending corruption in state government. A total of 83 percent say the issue of political corruption is "extremely important" or "very important" in deciding their vote. Among Democrats, 85 percent say the corruption is "extremely important" or "very important," with 79 percent among Republicans.
Blackwell has a negative 27 - 32 percent favorability rating, with 24 percent mixed and 15 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.
"It is hard to win an election when more voters don't like you than do," said Brown.
By comparison, Strickland gets a 41 - 13 percent favorability, with 22 percent mixed and 22 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.
The Republican leads Strickland, a minister, 53 - 40 percent among self-described white evangelical Christians, normally an overwhelmingly Republican voting bloc. In 2004, for example, President Bush received 76 percent of the white evangelical vote in Ohio, according to the exit polls.
Most voters say political philosophy is the main reason they support their candidate, followed by experience and the candidate's personal qualities.
"In a campaign in which the words 'liberal' and 'conservative' are being freely tossed around, voters seem to have had no trouble deciding to which man and philosophy they are attracted," said Brown
From September 11 - 17, Quinnipiac University surveyed 876 Ohio likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points. The survey includes 260 self- described white evangelical Christians, with a margin of error of 6.1 percent.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For additional data-www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks
1. If the 2006 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were Ted Strickland the Democrat and Ken Blackwell the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Strickland or Blackwell? This table includes Leaners.
LIKELY VOTERS............................................ WhtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evang Strickland 55% 18% 88% 54% 51% 60% 40% Blackwell 34 71 6 31 40 28 53 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 10 11 6 15 9 11 7 RESPONSE TO Q12. HOW IMPORTANT IS THE ISSUE OF POLITICAL CORRUPTION TO YOUR VOTE FOR GOVERNOR? Extrmly Smwht &Very &Not Strickland 57% 50% Blackwell 33 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - DK/NA 11 8
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS......... TS KB Tot Voters Voters Made up 82% 84% 78% Might change 17 16 20 DK/NA 1 - 2
2. (If Strickland supporter) What is the main reason you support Strickland? Is it because of -- A) his experience, B) his personal qualities, or C) his political philosophy?
LIKELY VOTERS.................................... WhtBrnAgn Tot Dem Ind Men Wom Evang A) Experience 13% 14% 14% 12% 13% 18% B) Personal qualities 10 9 9 8 11 13 C) Political phil 54 59 48 50 57 48 OTHER(VOL) 20 15 24 24 16 17 DK/NA 4 4 5 5 3 5
3. (If Blackwell supporter) What is the main reason you support Blackwell? Is it because of -- A) his experience, B) his personal qualities, or C) his political philosophy?
LIKELY VOTERS.................................... WhtBrnAgn Tot Rep Ind Men Wom Evang A) Experience 17% 18% 10% 20% 13% 20% B) Personal qualities 10 9 14 11 9 12 C) Political phil 49 50 59 50 48 42 OTHER(VOL) 18 20 11 16 21 20 DK/NA 6 4 6 4 9 6
4. Is your opinion of Ted Strickland favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS............................................ WhtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evang Favorable 41% 17% 68% 35% 38% 44% 35% Unfavorable 13 24 1 16 18 8 20 Mixed 22 32 14 19 20 25 25 Hvn't hrd enough 22 25 16 26 22 21 19 REFUSED 1 1 1 3 1 1 1
5. Is your opinion of Ken Blackwell favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS............................................ WhtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evang Favorable 27% 53% 12% 21% 31% 24% 40% Unfavorable 32 12 49 31 32 32 18 Mixed 24 20 23 26 20 27 20 Hvn't hrd enough 15 14 15 18 14 16 22 REFUSED 2 1 2 3 3 1 1
11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Taft is handling his job as Governor?
LIKELY VOTERS............................................ WhtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evang Approve 14% 19% 14% 9% 14% 14% 15% Disapprove 78 71 81 81 80 76 74 DK/NA 8 10 5 10 6 10 10
12. How important is the issue of political corruption to your vote for Governor? Extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not that important?
LIKELY VOTERS............................................ WhtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evang Extremely important 49% 42% 50% 57% 45% 54% 47% Very imp 34 37 35 29 37 32 35 Smwht imp 12 13 12 11 12 12 11 Not that important 3 6 2 3 6 1 5 DK/NA 1 2 1 1 1 2 2
13. Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate for Governor do you think would do a better job ending corruption in state government?
LIKELY VOTERS........................................... WhtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evang Ted Strickland 48% 18% 76% 45% 45% 51% 37% Ken Blackwell 29 59 11 22 33 25 43 DK/NA 23 24 13 33 22 24 21
14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
LIKELY VOTERS............................................ WhtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evang Approve 40% 83% 10% 34% 48% 32% 61% Disapprove 55 15 85 58 47 63 33 DK/NA 5 3 5 8 5 5 6