Ohio (OH) Poll * September 20, 2006 * Ohio Senate Race Is Dead Heat, - Quinnipiac University

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September 20, 2006 - Ohio Senate Race Is Dead Heat, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Feelings On President Bush Have Little Impact

In the hotly contested Ohio Senate race, U.S. Rep. Sherrod Brown, the Democratic challenger, is on the up side of a 45 - 44 percent matchup with Republican incumbent Sen. Mike DeWine among likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Another 11 percent of voters are undecided.
Women back Rep. Brown 48 - 40 percent, while men back Sen. DeWine 49 - 41 percent. DeWine gets 43 percent of independent voters to Brown's 40 percent, a statistical tie. Among these independents voters, 17 percent are undecided, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.
Relatively few voters say their choice stems from the candidates' opposing positions on the war in Iraq. More voters cite other issues as the reason why they support a candidate. About one in five voters base their preference on Sen. DeWine's support for, and Rep. Brown's criticism of, President George W. Bush.
"This race is very close and Sen. DeWine has a substantial opportunity to open up a lead, since 30 percent of voters don't have a firm view of Rep. Brown while only 12 percent don't know much about the incumbent," said Peter Brown assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "But the challenger has an edge because his voters say they are less likely to change their minds than are DeWine's supporters."
"It would be a reasonable assumption that both campaigns will do all they can to fill in that picture for those voters who say they haven't heard enough about Brown to form an opinion. Brace yourself for lots of television ads," Brown added.
Ohio voters give Brown a 31 - 14 percent favorability rating, with 23 percent mixed and 30 percent who haven't heard enough about him to form an opinion.
DeWine gets a 35 - 22 percent favorability, with 29 percent mixed and 12 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.
Among independent voters, 62 percent say their view of Brown is either mixed or they don't know enough about him to form an opinion, while 45 percent of independents feel that way about DeWine.
"How well each candidate does with independent voters will likely decide the election," said Brown.
The poor job approval ratings that Ohio gives President Bush, a negative 40 - 55 percent, and Gov. Robert Taft's negative 14 - 78 percent approval seem to be having much less effect on DeWine's candidacy, which is retaining more typical Republican constituencies than GOP gubernatorial nominee Ken Blackwell.
For instance, among white evangelical Christians, who make up 29 percent of the likely electorate, DeWine holds a 63 - 27 percent lead, three times bigger than Blackwell's lead among this group in the Governor's race.
From September 11 - 17, Quinnipiac University surveyed 876 Ohio likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points. The survey includes 260 self- described white evangelical Christians, with a margin of error of 6.1 percent.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For additional data-www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks
6. If the 2006 election for senator were being held today and the candidates were Sherrod Brown the Democrat and Mike DeWine the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided q6) As of today, do you lean more toward Brown or DeWine? This table includes Leaners.
LIKELY VOTERS............................................ WhtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom EvanglChr Brown 45% 13% 75% 40% 41% 48% 27% DeWine 44 79 17 43 49 40 63 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - - 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 11 8 7 17 9 12 9
6a. (If candidate choice q6) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS......... SB MD Tot Voters Voters Made up 77% 82% 73% Might change 22 18 26 DK/NA 1 - 1
7. (If Brown supporter) What is the main reason you support Brown? Is it because of -- A) his experience, B) his personal qualities, C) his stand on the war in Iraq, D) his stand on issues other than the war in Iraq, or E) because of his criticism of President Bush?
LIKELY VOTERS (Supporting Brown)................. WhtBrnAgn Tot Rep Ind Men Wom EvanglChr A) Experience 8% 12% 5% 8% 8% 10% B) Personal qualities 10 6 7 9 11 4 C) Stand on Iraq 14 10 13 15 14 12 D) Stand/Other issues 24 30 33 24 23 26 E) Criticism of Bush 18 6 20 16 20 17 OTHER(VOL) 19 37 14 19 19 27 DK/NA 7 - 8 10 5 5
8. (If DeWine supporter) What is the main reason you support DeWine? Is it because of -- A) his experience, B) his personal qualities, C) his stand on the war in Iraq, D) his stand on issues other than the war in Iraq, or E) because of his support for President Bush?
LIKELY VOTERS (Supporting DeWine)................ WhtBrnAgn Tot Dem Ind Men Wom EvanglChr A) Experience 30% 46% 27% 32% 27% 25% B) Personal qualities 7 10 10 8 7 7 C) Stand on Iraq 12 17 11 11 12 17 D) Stand/Other issues 14 12 19 13 16 14 E) Support for Bush 20 5 10 23 16 21 OTHER(VOL) 14 7 19 10 18 14 DK/NA 3 4 4 2 4 1
9. Is your opinion of Mike DeWine favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS............................................ WhtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom EvanglChr Favorable 35% 58% 19% 33% 37% 33% 49% Unfavorable 22 6 36 20 24 21 12 Mixed 29 27 28 32 28 30 26 Hvn't hrd enough 12 7 16 13 9 15 12 REFUSED 1 2 1 2 2 1 2
10. Is your opinion of Sherrod Brown favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS............................................ WhtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom EvanglChr Favorable 31% 11% 57% 23% 33% 30% 20% Unfavorable 14 28 4 14 20 9 22 Mixed 23 24 16 26 20 26 22 Hvn't hrd enough 30 34 23 36 25 34 34 REFUSED 2 2 1 2 2 1 1
15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?
LIKELY VOTERS............................................ WhtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom EvanglChr Approve 39% 76% 10% 35% 49% 29% 58% Disapprove 55 16 83 60 45 64 33 DK/NA 7 8 7 5 7 7 9
16. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
LIKELY VOTERS............................................ WhtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom EvanglChr Right thing 44% 77% 20% 38% 53% 34% 64% Wrong thing 50 15 75 57 42 59 29 DK/NA 6 8 6 5 5 7 7