Ohio (OH) Poll * October 17, 2006 * Democrat Opens 12-Point Lead I - Quinnipiac University

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October 17, 2006 - Democrat Opens 12-Point Lead In Ohio Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Independent Voters Shift To Democrat

Democratic U.S. Rep. Sherrod Brown has opened up a 53 - 41 percent lead over Republican incumbent Sen. Mike DeWine among likely voters in Ohio's U.S. Senate race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Seven percent of voters remain undecided and 14 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind before Election Day.
This compares to a statistical tie in a September 20 survey by the independent Quinnipiac University Poll when Rep. Brown had 45 percent to Sen. DeWine's 44 percent. In the last month Brown has solidified his support among Democrats: 88 - 7 percent compared to 75 - 17 percent in September. But his real progress has been among independents, where he now holds a 58 - 34 percent advantage, compared to a 43 - 40 percent deficit in September.
"Sherrod Brown had a good month. He may not be as popular as the Buckeyes, but his lead reflects gains in virtually all demographic categories. If he keeps the support he has assembled, he too will be number one," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Brown has gone from three points down among independent voters, the key to this race, to 24 points up. "It would be reasonable to assume that at least some of that change in voting intention by independents is tied to the national downturn in Republican fortunes in the past month and a heavy preference that the Democrats control Congress."
In the last month, DeWine increased his hold on the Republican vote only slightly, from 79 - 13 percent to 83 - 10 percent.
Brown's progress was most notable among men, moving to a 51 - 44 percent edge after trailing DeWine 49 - 41 percent among men in September. Brown's eight-point margin among women in September ballooned to 54 - 37 percent this month.
DeWine support also declined among white evangelical Christians, from a 63 - 27 percent advantage in September to 57 - 37 percent today.
"DeWine is running almost 20 points behind President Bush's showing among white evangelical voters two years ago. It is a sign of overall Republican weakness," said Brown.
Voters give DeWine a split 32 - 34 percent favorability rating, with 22 percent mixed and 10 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.
Brown gets a 40 - 18 percent favorability, with 22 percent mixed and 18 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.
President Bush's Approval
Ohio voters disapprove 57 - 39 percent of the job President George W. Bush is doing, compared to a 55 - 40 percent disapproval last month.
In addition, 52 percent of Ohio voters would prefer to see Democrats control both houses of Congress, compared to 32 percent who want the GOP to retain control. Six percent volunteered they would like each party to control one house.
Only 15 percent of Ohio voters say they are more likely to vote for a Republican in the state because of the record of President Bush and the Republican-controlled Congress, with 44 percent who are less likely and 38 percent who say this won't influence their vote.
From October 10 - 15, Quinnipiac University surveyed 901 Ohio likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points. The survey includes 272 self- described white evangelical Christians, with a margin of error of 5.9 percent.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For additional data-www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks
4. If the 2006 election for senator were being held today and the candidates were Sherrod Brown the Democrat and Mike DeWine the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided q4) As of today, do you lean more toward Brown or DeWine? This table includes Leaners.
LIKELY VOTERS........................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evangel Brown 53% 10% 88% 58% 51% 54% 37% DeWine 41 83 7 34 44 37 57 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 7 7 4 8 5 9 6
TREND: If the 2006 election for senator were being held today and the candidates were Sherrod Brown the Democrat and Mike DeWine the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Brown or DeWine? This table includes Leaners.
LIKELY VOTERS Oct 17 Sep 20 2006 2006 Brown 53 45 DeWine 41 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - DK/NA 7 11
4a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY CHOOSING CAND Q4.. CAND OF CHOICE Q4 Tot SB MD Made up 86% 90% 80% Might change 14 9 20 DK/NA - 1 -
TREND: (If candidate choice) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS Oct 17 Sep 20 2006 2006 Made up 86 77 Might change 14 22 DK/NA - 1
5. (If Brown supporter) What is the main reason you support Brown? Is it because of -- A) his experience, B) his personal qualities, C) his stand on the war in Iraq, D) his stand on issues, other than the war in Iraq, or E) because of his criticism of President Bush?
BROWN SUPPORTERS................................ LIKELY VOTERS................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Dem Ind Men Wom Evangel A) Experience 9% 12% 6% 8% 9% 12% B) Personal qualities 8 8 8 9 7 14 C) Stand on Iraq 19 17 23 18 21 17 D) Stand/Other Issues 24 24 24 26 23 18 E) Criticism of Bush 18 20 16 21 15 16 OTHER(VOL) 17 14 20 16 18 17 DK/NA 4 5 2 2 6 6
TREND: (If Brown supporter) What is the main reason you support Brown? Is it because of -- A) his experience, B) his personal qualities, C) his stand on the war in Iraq, D) his stand on issues other than the war in Iraq, or E) because of his criticism of President Bush?
LIKELY VOTERS... Brown Supporters Oct 17 Sep 20 2006 2006 A) Experience 9 8 B) Personal qualities 8 10 C) Stand on Iraq 19 14 D) Stand/Other issues 24 24 E) Criticism of Bush 18 18 OTHER(VOL) 17 19 DK/NA 4 7
6. (If DeWine supporter) What is the main reason you support DeWine? Is it because of -- A) his experience, B) his personal qualities, C) his stand on the war in Iraq, D) his stand on issues, other than the war in Iraq, or E) because of his support for President Bush?
DEWINE SUPPORTERS............................... LIKELY VOTERS................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Ind Men Wom Evangel A) Experience 22% 21% 21% 18% 26% 19% B) Personal qualities 8 7 9 6 10 8 C) Stand on Iraq 11 10 11 13 8 16 D) Stand/Other issues 21 19 24 22 20 21 E) Support for Bush 19 23 16 23 14 21 OTHER(VOL) 16 15 16 16 15 12 DK/NA 4 5 3 2 7 3
TREND: (If DeWine supporter) What is the main reason you support DeWine? Is it because of -- A) his experience, B) his personal qualities, C) his stand on the war in Iraq, D) his stand on issues other than the war in Iraq, or E) because of his support for President Bush?
LIKELY VOTERS DeWine Supporters Oct 17 Sep 20 2006 2006 A) Experience 22 30 B) Personal qualities 8 7 C) Stand on Iraq 11 12 D) Stand/Other issues 21 14 E) Support for Bush 19 20 OTHER(VOL) 16 14 DK/NA 4 3
7. Is your opinion of Mike DeWine favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS........................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evangel Favorable 32% 63% 10% 24% 34% 30% 40% Unfavorable 34 10 53 39 37 32 28 Mixed 22 20 22 27 20 25 22 Hvn't hrd enough 10 6 13 9 8 11 8 REFUSED 2 2 1 1 2 2 1
TREND: Is your opinion of Mike DeWine favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS Oct 17 Sep 20 2006 2006 Favorable 32 35 Unfavorable 34 22 Mixed 22 29 Hvn't hrd enough 10 12 REFUSED 2 1
8. Is your opinion of Sherrod Brown favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS........................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evangel Favorable 40% 8% 68% 44% 40% 40% 28% Unfavorable 18 38 4 11 21 14 23 Mixed 22 25 15 27 21 22 20 Hvn't hrd enough 18 26 12 15 16 20 26 REFUSED 2 3 - 2 2 3 2
TREND: Is your opinion of Sherrod Brown favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS Oct 17 Sep 20 2006 2006 Favorable 40 31 Unfavorable 18 14 Mixed 22 23 Hvn't hrd enough 18 30 REFUSED 2 2
10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
LIKELY VOTERS........................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evangel Approve 39% 83% 9% 27% 42% 36% 57% Disapprove 57 13 89 69 55 59 40 DK/NA 4 4 2 4 3 5 3
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
LIKELY VOTERS Oct 17 Sep 19 2006 2006 Approve 39 40 Disapprove 57 55 DK/NA 4 5
11. What is your preference for the outcome of the November 2006 congressional elections -- A) a Congress controlled by Republicans, or B) a Congress controlled by Democrats?
LIKELY VOTERS........................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evangel Republicans 32% 77% 3% 19% 34% 29% 48% Democrats 52 10 89 56 50 53 36 DIVIDED CONTROL 6 5 5 7 6 5 6 DK/NA 11 8 3 18 10 12 10
12. Does the record of the Bush administration and the Republicans who control Congress make you more likely to vote for Republicans running for office in Ohio, less likely to vote for Republicans running for office in Ohio, or doesn't it make a difference?
LIKELY VOTERS........................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evangel More likely 15% 40% 1% 8% 13% 17% 25% Less likely 44 8 75 50 44 45 30 No difference 38 48 23 40 40 36 43 DK/NA 3 4 1 3 3 3 2