Ohio (OH) Poll * October 18, 2006 * Democrat Has Almost 2-1 Lead I - Quinnipiac University

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October 18, 2006 - Democrat Has Almost 2-1 Lead In Ohio Governor's Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Disapprove Of Gov. Taft 7 - 1

Democratic U.S. Rep. Ted Strickland holds a 59 - 32 percent likely voter lead over Republican Secretary of State Ken Blackwell in the race for Ohio Governor with three weeks to go before election day, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Nine percent are undecided and 13 percent say they might change their mind before Election Day.
This compares to a 55 - 34 percent Strickland lead in a September 19 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.
In this latest survey, Rep. Strickland gets 22 percent of Republican voters, compared to 68 percent for Rep. Blackwell. Strickland leads 90 - 5 percent among Democrats; 63 - 27 percent among independent voters; 56 - 35 percent among men and 62 - 28 percent among women.
Even white evangelical Christians, normally a solid Republican bloc, split with 47 percent for Blackwell and 44 percent for Strickland. In 2004, for instance, this group favored President George W. Bush by a 3 - 1 margin.
"Rep. Ted Strickland's lead is large; it is broad and it is deep. He may not be ready to order the drapes for his Capitol office, but he might want to begin perusing the catalogue," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
By a 42 - 14 percent margin, Ohio voters have a favorable opinion of Strickland, with 24 percent mixed and 17 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.
Blackwell gets a negative 25 - 39 percent favorability, with 20 percent mixed and 14 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion. This compares to a negative 27 - 32 percent favorability September 19.
"A candidate can't win an election if more voters view him unfavorably than favorably. Ken Blackwell's problem isn't that voters don't think they know enough about him. His problem is they think they do, and don't like him," said Brown.
"To win the election, Blackwell would need to convince voters that their initial judgment of him was wrong . That is a very difficult task, especially when less than 10 percent of Strickland supporters say they might change their minds." Governor Taft's Approval
By an overwhelming 80 - 11 percent margin, Ohio voters disapprove of the job Gov. Robert Taft is doing, compared to a 78 - 14 percent disapproval last month.
"Certainly the unpopularity of a Republican Governor and a Republican President could be rubbing off on Blackwell, but he is too far behind for that to be a determining factor," said Brown.
From October 10 - 15, Quinnipiac University surveyed 901 Ohio likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points. The survey includes 272 self- described white evangelical Christians, with a margin of error of 5.9 percent.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For additional data-www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks
1. If the 2006 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were Ted Strickland the Democrat and Ken Blackwell the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Strickland or Blackwell? This table includes Leaners.
LIKELY VOTERS........................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evangel Strickland 59% 22% 90% 63% 56% 62% 44% Blackwell 32 68 5 27 35 28 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 9 10 5 9 9 9 8
TREND: If the 2006 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were Ted Strickland the Democrat and Ken Blackwell the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Strickland or Blackwell? This table includes Leaners.
LIKELY VOTERS Oct 18 Sep 19 2006 2006 Strickland 59 55 Blackwell 32 34 SMONE ELSE - - WLDN'T VOTE - - DK/NA 9 10
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY CHOOSING CAND Q1.. CAND OF CHOICE Q1 Tot TS KB Made up 87% 90% 82% Might change 13 10 18 DK/NA - - -
TREND: Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS Oct 18 Sep 19 2006 2006 Made up 87 82 Might change 13 17 DK/NA - 1
2. Is your opinion of Ted Strickland favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS........................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evangel Favorable 42% 14% 71% 41% 40% 44% 29% Unfavorable 14 34 2 9 16 12 23 Mixed 24 25 14 33 24 23 25 Hvn't hrd enough 17 24 13 15 17 18 21 REFUSED 3 4 1 3 3 3 2
TREND: Is your opinion of Ted Strickland favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS Oct 18 Sep 19 2006 2006 Favorable 42 41 Unfavorable 14 13 Mixed 24 22 Hvn't hrd enough 17 22 REFUSED 3 1
3. Is your opinion of Ken Blackwell favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS........................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evangel Favorable 25% 51% 9% 18% 28% 22% 40% Unfavorable 39 14 58 44 39 39 25 Mixed 20 18 15 25 17 22 19 Hvn't hrd enough 14 14 16 11 14 14 15 REFUSED 3 2 1 2 2 3 2
TREND: Is your opinion of Ken Blackwell favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS Oct 18 Sep 19 2006 2006 Favorable 25 27 Unfavorable 39 32 Mixed 20 24 Hvn't hrd enough 14 15 REFUSED 3 2
9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Taft is handling his job as Governor?
LIKELY VOTERS........................................... WtBrnAgn Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evangel Approve 11% 17% 11% 7% 9% 14% 16% Disapprove 80 72 84 86 85 76 74 DK/NA 8 10 6 7 6 11 10
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Taft is handling his job as Governor?
LIKELY VOTERS Oct 18 Sep 19 2006 2006 Approve 11 14 Disapprove 80 78 DK/NA 8 8