Pennsylvania (PA) Poll * February 8, 2007 * Clinton, Giuliani Early Favori - Quinnipiac University

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February 8, 2007 - Clinton, Giuliani Early Favorites In Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Race Is Close In Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida

In an early look at the 2008 presidential race, Pennsylvania voters back former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani by a narrow 47 - 44 percent over New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Arizona Sen. John McCain gets 46 percent to Sen. Clinton's 45 percent, a tie.
Clinton is in a close race with either Giuliani or McCain in three swing states polled by Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University: She leads McCain 46 - 42 percent and Giuliani 46 - 43 percent in Ohio (January 30); February 7 Florida results show Giuliani over Clinton 47 - 44 percent and Clinton edging McCain 47 - 43 percent.
In a Pennsylvania primary, Clinton leads the Democratic pack with 37 percent, followed by 11 percent each for Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, 2004 vice presidential candidate John Edwards and former Vice President Al Gore. Delaware Sen. Joseph Biden gets 5 percent.
Giuliani leads the Republican field with 30 percent, with 20 percent for McCain, 14 percent for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and 4 percent for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.
"While Sen. Hillary Clinton polls more votes than Barack Obama, John Edwards and Al Gore combined in the Democratic race for president, Rudy Giuliani would give her a run for the money in the general election in Pennsylvania," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"The former First Lady has her work cut out for her in the Keystone state - a swing state that must be on her must-win list. Giuliani's 9/11 hero status probably will fade some in a campaign centered on other issues, but Clinton must work hard to bring up her numbers among independents and men to carry the state. And the Philadelphia suburbs already look like a key 2008 battleground in Pennsylvania," Richards added.
In other possible Pennsylvania presidential matchups:
Clinton 53 - 34 percent over Romney; McCain 46 - 39 percent over Obama; McCain 47 - 42 percent over Edwards.
Pennsylvania voters give Clinton a 53 - 39 percent favorability rating. Favorability ratings for other contenders are:
61 - 18 percent for Giuliani; 54 - 20 percent for McCain; 39 - 15 percent for Obama, with 45 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion; 43 - 27 percent for Edwards, with 29 percent who haven't heard enough; 27 - 30 percent for Biden, with 40 percent who haven't heard enough; 48 - 45 percent for Gore; 30 - 48 percent for Gingrich; For Romney, 76 percent haven't heard enough to form an opinion.
President Bush's Approval
Pennsylvania voters disapprove 62 - 33 percent of the job President George W. Bush is doing and say 66 - 28 percent that the nation is on the wrong track. The war in Iraq is the most important problem facing the country today, 46 percent of voters say.
Voters disapprove 66 - 29 percent of President Bush's handling of the war in Iraq and oppose 64 - 32 percent the President's plan to send 22,000 more troops to Iraq.
From February 1 - February 5, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,014 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points. The survey includes 438 Republicans and 442 Democrats, each with a margin of error of +/- 4.7 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data - www.quinnipiac.edu and click on Institutes and Centers, or call (203) 582-5201.
1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Al Gore, Tom Vilsack, Joe Biden, John Edwards, Bill Richardson, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Chris Dodd, Wesley Clark and Dennis Kucinich for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED DEMOCRATS Tot Men Wom Gore 11% 11% 11% Vilsack 1 1 - Biden 5 6 4 Edwards 11 12 10 Richardson 1 1 - Clinton 37 34 39 Obama 11 8 14 Dodd 1 1 - Clark - 1 - Kucinich 1 2 - SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 4 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 1 DK/NA 17 15 18
2. (If registered Republican) If the 2008 Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Duncan Hunter, Sam Brownback, Tommy Thompson, Jim Gilmore, Chuck Hagel, Mike Huckabee, George Pataki and Tom Tancredo for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED REPUBLICANS Tot Men Wom Giuliani 30% 28% 33% McCain 20 24 16 Romney 4 3 5 Gingrich 14 20 8 Hunter 1 2 - Brownback 2 2 1 Thompson - - - Gilmore - 1 - Hagel 1 1 - Huckabee 1 1 1 Pataki - - 1 Tancredo - 1 - SMONE ELSE(VOL) 4 3 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 5 DK/NA 20 15 24
3. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Clinton 44% 7% 77% 45% 39% 49% Giuliani 47 85 15 45 52 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 3 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 1 2 2 1 DK/NA 5 4 5 5 5 6 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Clinton 49% 69% 40% 44% 46% 46% 30% Giuliani 43 24 54 50 50 44 56 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 - 3 1 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 1 - - 3 3 DK/NA 5 4 6 3 2 5 9
4. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Clinton 53% 14% 84% 61% 48% 56% Romney 34 73 7 25 38 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 4 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 3 3 1 DK/NA 9 9 6 9 7 10 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Clinton 53% 81% 57% 53% 51% 48% 38% Romney 34 11 36 33 39 36 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 4 5 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 1 2 2 2 2 DK/NA 9 6 5 10 3 9 13
5. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Clinton 45% 7% 77% 47% 38% 51% McCain 46 84 16 44 52 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 3 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 1 1 2 1 DK/NA 6 5 5 6 6 7 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Clinton 51% 72% 49% 41% 40% 48% 30% McCain 43 22 42 48 55 44 58 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 1 1 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 1 2 - 2 1 DK/NA 5 4 8 8 2 4 9
6. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Obama 39% 7% 67% 42% 33% 44% McCain 46 81 20 40 51 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 4 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 1 2 2 DK/NA 11 9 9 14 11 11 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Obama 53% 65% 31% 34% 28% 45% 27% McCain 36 24 51 49 58 41 56 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 3 1 3 2 3 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 DK/NA 8 7 16 12 11 9 13
7. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were John Edwards the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Edwards 42% 10% 72% 39% 36% 47% McCain 47 81 18 48 54 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 3 2 0 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 3 2 2 DK/NA 8 6 8 8 6 10 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Edwards 49% 59% 41% 34% 40% 55% 31% McCain 40 27 48 54 48 39 57 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 - 1 - 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 1 2 1 3 1 DK/NA 7 8 9 8 10 2 10
8. Is your opinion of -- Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 53% 16% 82% 58% 48% 57% Unfavorable 39 77 10 33 43 35 Hvn't hrd enough 5 4 5 7 6 5 REFUSED 3 3 2 2 3 3
9. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 39% 22% 49% 51% 36% 42% Unfavorable 15 24 7 10 20 11 Hvn't hrd enough 45 52 43 38 43 46 REFUSED 1 2 - 1 1 1
10. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 54% 68% 42% 54% 60% 49% Unfavorable 20 14 25 23 22 19 Hvn't hrd enough 24 17 30 20 16 30 REFUSED 2 2 2 3 2 2
11. Is your opinion of -- Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 61% 78% 46% 63% 66% 58% Unfavorable 18 8 28 16 18 18 Hvn't hrd enough 19 13 24 20 15 22 REFUSED 1 1 2 2 1 2
12. Is your opinion of -- Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 12% 23% 3% 9% 15% 9% Unfavorable 11 6 13 15 15 8 Hvn't hrd enough 76 71 83 75 69 82 REFUSED 1 - - 1 - 1
13. Is your opinion of -- John Edwards favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 43% 26% 59% 43% 41% 45% Unfavorable 27 47 9 26 34 21 Hvn't hrd enough 29 25 29 28 24 33 REFUSED 2 2 2 2 2 2
14. Is your opinion of -- Al Gore favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 48% 17% 73% 48% 45% 51% Unfavorable 45 74 22 45 49 42 Hvn't hrd enough 4 6 3 3 4 4 REFUSED 2 2 3 3 2 3
15. Is your opinion of -- Bill Richardson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 14% 10% 19% 16% 20% 10% Unfavorable 10 14 8 9 15 6 Hvn't hrd enough 75 76 73 75 65 83 REFUSED 1 1 1 - 1 1
16. Is your opinion of -- Chris Dodd favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 8% 4% 12% 9% 10% 7% Unfavorable 12 18 7 12 18 8 Hvn't hrd enough 78 78 80 75 70 84 REFUSED 2 1 1 3 2 2
17. Is your opinion of -- Chuck Hagel favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 9% 8% 10% 12% 12% 7% Unfavorable 11 12 10 8 15 8 Hvn't hrd enough 79 78 79 80 73 85 REFUSED 1 1 - - - 1
18. Is your opinion of -- Duncan Hunter favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 3% 5% 2% 2% 3% 3% Unfavorable 6 6 6 6 9 4 Hvn't hrd enough 91 89 92 92 88 93 REFUSED - - - 1 - -
19. Is your opinion of -- Dennis Kucinich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 6% 3% 7% 8% 8% 4% Unfavorable 17 20 14 21 25 10 Hvn't hrd enough 76 76 78 71 66 85 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 -
20. Is your opinion of -- George Pataki favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 22% 28% 17% 16% 23% 21% Unfavorable 20 15 21 25 27 14 Hvn't hrd enough 56 52 61 55 47 63 REFUSED 2 4 1 3 3 2
21. Is your opinion of -- Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 27% 18% 35% 28% 32% 24% Unfavorable 30 44 22 27 39 24 Hvn't hrd enough 40 36 41 41 28 49 REFUSED 2 2 1 4 2 2
22. Is your opinion of -- Jim Gilmore favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 3% 3% 3% 2% 4% 2% Unfavorable 7 4 9 10 11 4 Hvn't hrd enough 89 92 88 88 85 93 REFUSED 1 2 1 - 1 1
23. Is your opinion of -- Mike Huckabee favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 5% 9% 4% 4% 6% 5% Unfavorable 8 8 10 8 12 6 Hvn't hrd enough 86 83 87 88 82 89 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 - 1
24. Is your opinion of -- Newt Gingrich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 30% 50% 14% 25% 37% 24% Unfavorable 48 27 62 54 45 50 Hvn't hrd enough 21 20 22 20 16 25 REFUSED 2 3 2 1 3 1
25. Is your opinion of -- Sam Brownback favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 6% 9% 2% 9% 6% 6% Unfavorable 9 7 11 13 15 5 Hvn't hrd enough 83 83 86 75 77 88 REFUSED 1 1 1 3 2 1
26. Is your opinion of -- Tom Vilsack favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 6% 7% 7% 3% 9% 4% Unfavorable 7 3 10 8 7 7 Hvn't hrd enough 86 89 82 88 84 89 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 1 1
27. Is your opinion of -- Tom Tancredo favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 5% 8% 3% 6% 7% 3% Unfavorable 8 5 10 8 10 6 Hvn't hrd enough 86 86 87 85 81 91 REFUSED 1 1 - 2 1 1
28. Is your opinion of -- Tommy Thompson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 8% 12% 6% 5% 8% 7% Unfavorable 11 10 13 9 14 8 Hvn't hrd enough 80 77 81 84 76 84 REFUSED 1 1 - 2 1 1
29. Is your opinion of -- Wesley Clark favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 14% 8% 20% 17% 16% 13% Unfavorable 19 30 10 14 30 9 Hvn't hrd enough 66 60 70 68 53 77 REFUSED 1 2 - 1 1 1
34. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 33% 71% 7% 23% 36% 31% Disapprove 62 24 91 72 59 65 DK/NA 4 6 2 5 6 3 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 23% 12% 36% 38% 33% 30% 46% Disapprove 73 86 62 59 54 68 48 DK/NA 4 2 2 4 13 3 5
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Feb 8 Aug 15 Jun 21 May 11 Apr 6 Jun 5 May 11 2007 2006 2006 2006 2006 2002 2006 Approve 33 33 34 30 35 73 30 Disapprove 62 64 62 66 60 21 66 DK/NA 4 3 4 3 4 6 3
35. Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Right direction 28% 57% 8% 20% 35% 24% Wrong track 66 35 88 76 61 71 DK/NA 5 7 4 4 5 6 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Right direction 24% 11% 24% 38% 30% 29% 32% Wrong track 72 84 71 57 63 68 61 DK/NA 4 5 5 5 7 3 7
36. What do you think is the most important problem facing the country today?
Tot War (Iraq) 46% Healthcare/Costs/ Ins/HMO's 6% Economy Total 5% Economy general 2 Unemployment/jobs 2 Business leaving/ Outsourcing 1 Politicians Total 5% Politicians/ Campaigns general 1 Political corruption 1 Bush administration 3 Terrorism Total 5% Terrorism general 3 Security/Safety 2 Ethics/Values/ Morality Total 4% Family breakdown/ Family values 2 Lack of ethics/Morality 1 Lack of religion 1 Foreign Affairs Total 4% Foreign affairs/ policy general 1 Priorities s/b at home, not abroad 2 Middle East 1 Immigration 4% Education general 2% Budget general 1 Crime/Violence general 1 Energy costs general 1 Environment/Pollution 1 Poverty/Homeless 1 Social security 1 Taxes general 1 Welfare 1 Other 5 DK/NA 2
37. Which political party do you think can do a better job of handling that problem the Republican Party or the Democratic Party?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Republican 29% 68% 5% 13% 34% 24% Democratic 50 10 86 50 44 56 NO DIFFERENCE(VOL) 13 11 5 25 15 10 DK/NA 8 11 4 12 7 10
38. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 29% 65% 4% 19% 33% 26% Disapprove 66 27 93 78 63 68 DK/NA 5 8 3 3 4 6
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?
Feb 8 Aug 15 Jun 21 May 11 Apr 6 Feb 13 2007 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 Approve 29 31 35 29 35 37 Disapprove 66 64 62 67 62 60 DK/NA 5 5 3 4 3 3
38. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Right thing 37% 73% 11% 29% 42% 33% Wrong thing 59 22 86 68 55 62 DK/NA 4 5 3 3 3 5
TREND: Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
Feb 8 Aug 15 Jun 21 May 11 Apr 6 Feb 13 Dec 13 2007 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2005 Right thing 37 36 38 38 39 40 40 Wrong thing 59 58 57 57 55 55 55 DK/NA 4 6 6 5 6 4 5
40. Do you support or oppose Bush's plan to send approximately 22,000 additional U.S. military forces to Iraq?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Support 32% 64% 7% 26% 40% 25% Oppose 64 29 90 71 58 69 DK/NA 4 7 2 3 3 6