Pennsylvania (PA) Poll * February 27, 2008 * Young Voters Help Obama Narrow - Quinnipiac University

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February 27, 2008 - Young Voters Help Obama Narrow Gap In Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; McCain Runs Neck And Neck Against Either Democrat

Word format Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, surging among younger voters, has cut Sen. Hillary Clinton's lead among Pennsylvania likely Democratic primary voters to 6 points, 49 - 43 percent, after trailing by 16 points just two weeks ago, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
This compares to a 52 - 36 percent lead for Sen. Clinton February 14.
In a general election matchup, Sen. Clinton has 44 percent to 42 percent of registered voters for Arizona Sen. John McCain, the Republican front-runner. Sen. Obama has 42 percent to Sen. McCain's 40 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.
Among likely Democratic primary voters, women back Clinton 53 - 39 percent, while men back Obama 50 - 43 percent; white voters go with Clinton 56 - 37 percent while black voters support Obama 69 - 23 percent. Democrats with a college degree favor Obama 53 - 41 percent, while voters without a degree back Clinton 52 - 39 percent.
This biggest movement is among younger voters who went from 52 - 41 percent for Clinton February 14 to 58 - 41 percent for Obama today, a shift of 28 points.
"Sen. Obama is closing in fast on Sen. Clinton in Pennsylvania, but it will probably be the voters in Ohio and Texas who decide what role the Keystone primary will play in the 2008 presidential election. If Sen. Clinton survives next week to fight another day, Pennsylvania could become the last battleground of the long Democratic contest. But an Obama win in Texas and Ohio would make it difficult for Clinton to halt her rival's momentum," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Sen. John McCain is within striking distance of either Democratic candidate at this time in Pennsylvania, an indication that the likely Republican nominee, particularly popular in a state with a large veteran population, will make the Keystone State a battleground in the November election," Richards added.
By a 50 - 27 percent margin, Pennsylvania voters have a favorable opinion of McCain. Clinton gets a split 46 - 44 percent favorability rating while Obama gets a 49 - 26 percent score. Bush Approval
Pennsylvania voters disapprove 65 - 30 percent of the job President George W. Bush is doing, one of his lowest scores ever in the state. Going to war in Iraq was the wrong thing to do, voters say 59 - 35 percent.
The U.S. economy is in a recession, voters say 60 - 35 percent, but 60 percent say their personal finances are "excellent" or "good," while 39 percent say their finances are "not so good" or "poor."
From February 21 - 25, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,872 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.3 percentage points. The survey includes 506 likely Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research.
For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x271.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, for whom would you vote?(If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Clinton or Obama? *This table includes "Leaners".
LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS................... Wht Wht Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Men Wom Clinton 49% 43% 53% 56% 23% 48% 61% Obama 43 50 39 37 69 45 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 - 1 - 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 7 4 9 7 8 6 8 Age Age No col College 18-44 45+ degree degree Clinton 41% 52% 52% 41% Obama 58 39 39 53 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - DK/NA 1 8 8 5
TREND: If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Clinton or Obama? *This table includes Leaners.
LIKELY DP VOTERS Feb 27 Feb 14 2008 2008 Clinton 49 52 Obama 43 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - DK/NA 7 11
1a.(If express choice) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?
LIKELY DP VOTERS..... Tot Clinton Obama Made up 75% 74% 76% Might change 24 25 24 DK/NA 1 1 1
2. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
LklyDP Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom voters Clinton 44% 6% 80% 40% 37% 50% 80% McCain 42 81 9 42 48 36 12 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 3 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 2 7 5 4 1 DK/NA 8 7 8 9 8 9 5 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Clinton 43% 74% 43% 46% 31% 46% 33% McCain 48 16 40 42 50 42 49 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 1 3 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 6 3 4 3 6 DK/NA 5 7 10 7 13 7 10
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Feb 27 Feb 14 Dec 5 Nov 8 Oct 10 Aug 23 Jun 27 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Clinton 44 46 43 45 48 47 46 McCain 42 40 43 43 41 41 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 3 1 2 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 3 4 4 3 3 DK/NA 8 9 8 7 5 7 6
3. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
LklyDP Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom voters Obama 42% 13% 69% 41% 39% 44% 72% McCain 40 75 15 36 45 36 15 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 4 5 4 4 3 DK/NA 12 8 10 17 10 14 8 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Obama 49% 70% 34% 47% 35% 36% 31% McCain 39 17 43 38 41 45 49 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 1 1 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 3 6 2 6 5 6 DK/NA 8 9 16 12 16 12 13
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Feb 27 Feb 14 Oct 10 Aug 23 Jun 27 May 31 Apr 26 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Obama 42 42 45 43 44 41 43 McCain 40 41 41 40 39 42 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 3 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 4 5 4 5 2 DK/NA 12 11 8 11 11 11 13
4. Is your opinion of -- Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
LklyDP Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom voters Favorable 46% 15% 74% 45% 38% 53% 75% Unfavorable 44 77 15 44 52 36 18 Hvn't hrd enough 7 5 9 7 7 8 5 REFUSED 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 45% 68% 47% 46% 35% 49% 38% Unfavorable 47 23 44 45 51 39 49 Hvn't hrd enough 7 7 8 6 10 7 7 REFUSED 1 2 1 3 4 5 5
TREND: Is your opinion of -- Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
Feb 27 Dec 5 Nov 8 Oct 10 Aug 23 Aug 8 Jun 27 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Favorable 46 49 47 51 51 51 48 Unfavorable 44 43 43 42 41 40 42 Hvn't hrd enough 7 6 8 4 6 5 7 REFUSED 3 2 2 3 2 3 3
5. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LklyDP Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom voters Favorable 49% 31% 63% 53% 48% 50% 67% Unfavorable 26 44 16 19 31 23 15 Hvn't hrd enough 22 23 19 26 20 25 16 REFUSED 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 52% 73% 46% 54% 44% 33% 43% Unfavorable 24 10 27 26 28 34 30 Hvn't hrd enough 22 15 25 18 26 30 24 REFUSED 2 2 2 2 2 2 3
TREND: Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Feb 27 Dec 5 Oct 10 Aug 23 Aug 8 Jun 27 May 31 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Favorable 49 47 48 46 47 46 44 Unfavorable 26 23 22 23 23 20 19 Hvn't hrd enough 22 27 28 29 27 33 34 REFUSED 2 3 2 2 2 2 3
6. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LklyDP Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom voters Favorable 50% 70% 33% 53% 55% 45% 35% Unfavorable 27 17 37 23 27 26 44 Hvn't hrd enough 20 11 27 21 14 25 18 REFUSED 3 2 3 4 3 4 3 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 50% 34% 56% 54% 46% 50% 54% Unfavorable 27 34 25 26 28 30 22 Hvn't hrd enough 21 31 13 16 21 17 21 REFUSED 2 1 6 3 4 4 3
TREND: Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Feb 27 Dec 5 Oct 10 Aug 23 Aug 8 Jun 27 May 31 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Favorable 50 45 43 46 37 45 44 Unfavorable 27 27 26 30 34 28 28 Hvn't hrd enough 20 25 29 20 25 25 25 REFUSED 3 3 2 4 3 3 2
11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
LklyDP Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom voters Approve 30% 67% 6% 20% 33% 27% 5% Disapprove 65 27 91 76 63 67 93 DK/NA 5 6 3 4 3 6 2 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 36% 8% 29% 29% 37% 27% 37% Disapprove 59 90 67 66 56 69 57 DK/NA 4 2 4 5 6 4 6
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? * also 29% on 5/31/07
Highest Lowest Approve Approve Feb 27 Feb 14 Nov 8 Aug 23 May 31 Jun 5 Nov 8 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 2002 2007* Approve 30 30 29 30 29 73 29 Disapprove 65 64 66 67 67 21 66 DK/NA 5 6 5 3 4 6 5
18. Would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days as - Excellent, good, not so good, or poor?
LklyDP Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom voters Excellent 1% 3% - - 2% - - Good 19 34 9 15 25 14 7 Not so good 44 44 44 43 41 46 45 Poor 35 18 47 40 32 38 47 DK/NA 1 1 1 2 1 1 - Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Excellent 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% - 1% Good 21 7 21 23 20 21 19 Not so good 42 52 43 46 40 35 45 Poor 35 39 34 30 39 44 33 DK/NA - 1 2 1 1 - 2
TREND: Would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days as - Excellent, good, not so good, or poor?
Feb 27 Sep 28 Sep 16 Aug 18 Jul 14 2008 2004 2004 2004 2004 Excellent 1 2 3 2 3 Good 19 34 36 34 37 Not so good 44 39 39 44 41 Poor 35 23 22 20 18 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1
19. Would you describe your own personal financial situation as - Excellent, good, not so good, or poor?
LklyDP Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom voters Excellent 7% 10% 5% 7% 8% 6% 6% Good 53 62 48 49 56 50 50 Not so good 27 20 30 30 23 30 29 Poor 12 5 15 14 11 12 13 DK/NA 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Excellent 6% 5% 4% 9% 5% 8% 9% Good 55 40 55 59 57 50 52 Not so good 28 37 27 20 19 26 29 Poor 10 16 13 8 17 15 9 DK/NA 1 2 - 3 2 1 1
20. During the next 12 months, do you think your own personal financial situation will get better, get worse, or stay about the same?
LklyDP Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom voters Get better 29% 31% 27% 29% 33% 25% 24% Get worse 12 10 11 13 12 12 11 Stay the same 58 58 60 58 54 62 61 DK/NA 2 1 2 1 2 2 3 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Get better 30% 39% 25% 30% 28% 25% 26% Get worse 7 12 17 8 13 12 13 Stay the same 62 48 56 59 58 62 59 DK/NA 1 1 2 2 1 1 2
21. Do you think the United States economy is in a recession now?
LklyDP Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom voters Yes 60% 38% 76% 64% 56% 64% 76% No 35 57 18 32 41 29 18 DK/NA 5 5 6 4 3 7 6 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Yes 60% 73% 59% 61% 54% 65% 56% No 36 21 36 36 43 29 39 DK/NA 4 6 5 4 4 6 5
22. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
LklyDP Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom voters Right thing 35% 72% 10% 24% 40% 30% 10% Wrong thing 59 21 85 70 56 63 88 DK/NA 6 7 5 5 4 8 3 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Right thing 37% 12% 30% 31% 44% 37% 44% Wrong thing 57 86 64 63 50 60 47 DK/NA 6 2 6 6 6 3 9
TREND: Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
Feb 27 Aug 23 May 31 Mar 29 Feb 8 Aug 15 Jun 21 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 2006 2006 Right thing 35 34 34 38 37 36 38 Wrong thing 59 60 60 58 59 58 57 DK/NA 6 6 6 5 4 6 6