Pennsylvania (PA) Poll * March 18, 2008 * Clinton Widens Lead Over Obama - Quinnipiac University

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March 18, 2008 - Clinton Widens Lead Over Obama In Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Momentum Shifts To Her, But Racial Split Grows

Word format The momentum in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary battle has shifted back to New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, who now leads Illinois Sen. Barack Obama 53 - 41 percent among likely primary voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
This compares to a 49 - 43 percent Sen. Clinton lead in a February 27 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University. In that survey, the momentum was with Sen. Obama who had narrowed a 52 - 36 percent gap from a February 14 poll.
In this latest survey, the split between black and white voters grows. Clinton has widened her lead among women likely Democratic primary voters and narrowed Obama's lead among men. Subgroup numbers are:
White voters go with Clinton 61 - 33 percent, compared to 56 - 37 percent February 27. Black voters back Obama 76 - 18 percent, compared to 69 - 23 percent February 27. Women back Clinton 59 - 35 percent. Men go 48 percent for Obama to 45 percent for Clinton, compared to February 27 when men backed him 50 - 43 percent. Obama gets 50 percent of Democrats with a college degree, to Clinton's 45 percent. Among voters with no college degree, Clinton leads 57 - 37 percent. Voters under 45 back Obama 57 - 39 percent while voters over 45 back Clinton 60 - 34 percent.
"The momentum is clearly Sen. Clinton's as she firms up her traditional coalition of women, white males, non-college, rural and older voters in Pennsylvania. Her endorsement by Philadelphia's black Mayor, Michael Nutter, is cutting slightly into Obama's overwhelming edge among black voters, but clearly the split among black and white voters is growing," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Sen. Clinton leads in the bellwether Philadelphia suburbs by almost the same margin she leads statewide," Richards added. "And don't forget powerhouse Gov. Ed Rendell is putting all the king's horses and all the king's men into the Clinton campaign. Anything can happen in this crazy, unpredictable Democratic race, but this week, Big Mo is on Clinton's side."
By a 71 - 23 percent margin, Pennsylvania likely Democratic primary voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton, compared to 61 - 19 percent for Obama, contributing to Clinton's lead in the primary.
Looking at the so-called "Dream Ticket," 32 percent of Democratic likely voters prefer a Clinton-Obama ticket, while 18 percent prefer an Obama-Clinton ticket and 43 percent don't want the two contenders to run together. Obama voters are less enthusiastic about the "Dream Ticket," with 52 percent opposed, compared to 38 percent of Clinton backers who are opposed.
The economy is the single most important issue in their Democratic primary vote, 48 percent of likely voters say, while 23 percent list the war in Iraq and 18 percent list health care. Voters who list the economy favor Clinton 55 - 40 percent, while voters who list the war are split, with 47 percent for Clinton and 46 percent for Obama.
Looking at the qualities they most want in a candidate, 37 percent of Democratic primary voters want a strong leader, while 23 percent want someone who is trustworthy; another 22 percent most want someone who shares their values and 11 percent want someone who can win in November. Those looking for a strong leader back Clinton 62 - 34 percent, while voters who want someone trustworthy support Clinton 49 - 43 percent. Voter Concerns
Pennsylvania Democrats have a number of concerns, including:
82 - 15 percent that the U.S economy is in a recession; 70 percent are "very worried" or "somewhat worried" about being able to afford health care; 67 percent are "very worried" or "somewhat worried" about a major terrorist attack.
From March 10 - 16, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,304 Pennsylvania likely Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research.
For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
1. If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Clinton or Obama? This table includes "Leaners".
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS........................... Wht Wht Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Men Wom Clinton 53% 45% 59% 61% 18% 52% 68% Obama 41 48 35 33 76 42 26 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 6 6 5 6 6 6 5 Age Age No col Col WBrnAgn 18-44 45+ degree degree Evangel Clinton 39% 60% 57% 45% 66% Obama 57 34 37 50 29 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - DK/NA 3 6 6 5 5 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Clinton 54% 34% 61% 52% 61% 62% 56% Obama 42 59 30 44 31 28 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 1 1 1 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 4 6 8 4 7 7 5 IMPORTANT ISSUE TO VOTE/IMPORTANT QUALITY IN CANDIDATE.......... War Econ HlthCr Trust ShrVals Leader CanWin Inspires Clinton 47% 55% 56% 49% 53% 62% 55% 12% Obama 46 40 38 43 40 34 39 85 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 - 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 6 5 6 7 7 4 7 3
TREND: If the, for 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Clinton or Obama? *This table includes Leaners.
LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS................ TOTAL................. Mar 18 Feb 27 Feb 14 2008 2008 2008 Clinton 53 49 52 Obama 41 43 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 6 7 11 MEN................... WOMEN................. Mar 18 Feb 27 Feb 14 Mar 18 Feb 27 Feb 14 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 Clinton 45 43 49 59 53 54 Obama 48 50 39 35 39 34 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 3 - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 6 4 10 5 9 12 WHITE................. BLACK................. Mar 18 Feb 27 Feb 14 Mar 18 Feb 27 Feb 14 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 Clinton 61 56 58 18 23 10 Obama 33 37 31 76 69 71 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 6 7 9 6 8 19 WHITE MEN............. WHITE WOMEN........... Mar 18 Feb 27 Feb 14 Mar 18 Feb 27 Feb 14 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 Clinton 52 48 52 68 61 62 Obama 42 45 36 26 31 28 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 3 - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 6 6 8 5 8 10 AGE 18-44............. AGE 45+............... Mar 18 Feb 27 Feb 14 Mar 18 Feb 27 Feb 14 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 Clinton 39 41 52 60 52 51 Obama 57 58 41 34 39 34 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 3 1 7 6 8 12 NO COLLEGE DEGREE..... COLLEGE DEGREE........ Mar 18 Feb 27 Feb 14 Mar 18 Feb 27 Feb 14 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 Clinton 57 52 57 45 41 40 Obama 37 39 28 50 53 53 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 6 8 13 5 5 6
2. (If "Clinton" q1) At some point in the campaign, did you support Barack Obama? (*subgroup too small for accurate analysis).
CLINTON SUPPORTERS Q1.............................. LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... Wht Wht Tot Men Wom Wht Blk* Men Wom Yes 17% 16% 18% 17% -- 16% 17% No 81 82 80 81 -- 82 81 DK/NA 2 3 2 2 -- 2 2
3. (If "Obama" q1) At some point in the campaign, did you support Hillary Clinton?
OBAMA SUPPORTERS Q1................................ LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... Wht Wht Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Men Wom Yes 28% 27% 30% 25% 36% 23% 27% No 71 73 68 75 62 76 72 DK/NA 1 - 2 - 3 - -
4. Is your opinion of -- Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... Wht Wht Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Men Wom Favorable 71% 65% 75% 74% 56% 69% 79% Unfavorable 23 28 19 21 30 26 16 Hvn't hrd enough 4 5 4 3 7 4 3 REFUSED 2 2 2 1 7 1 2 Age Age No col Col WBrnAgn 18-44 45+ degree degree Evangel Favorable 63% 74% 72% 68% 69% Unfavorable 33 19 21 27 24 Hvn't hrd enough 4 4 4 4 6 REFUSED - 3 3 2 1 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 70% 66% 77% 71% 74% 72% 70% Unfavorable 24 24 17 24 17 22 26 Hvn't hrd enough 5 5 2 3 7 5 2 REFUSED 1 5 4 2 2 1 2 IMPORTANT ISSUE TO VOTE/IMPORTANT QUALITY IN CANDIDATE.......... War Econ HlthCr Trust ShrVals Leader CanWin Inspires Favorable 70% 72% 72% 64% 71% 76% 84% 41% Unfavorable 22 22 19 27 24 18 12 50 Hvn't hrd enough 3 3 8 6 3 5 2 4 REFUSED 4 2 1 2 3 1 3 6
4. Is your opinion of -- Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... CAND OF CHOICE Q1 Clinton Obama Favorable 96% 40% Unfavorable 2 52 Hvn't hrd enough 3 5 REFUSED - 4
5. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... Wht Wht Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Men Wom Favorable 61% 63% 60% 57% 80% 60% 54% Unfavorable 19 17 20 22 5 19 24 Hvn't hrd enough 17 18 16 18 13 19 18 REFUSED 3 2 3 3 1 2 4 Age Age No col Col WBrnAgn 18-44 45+ degree degree Evangel Favorable 74% 56% 55% 76% 45 Unfavorable 13 21 22 12 25 Hvn't hrd enough 11 20 20 10 27 REFUSED 2 3 3 2 2 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 61% 72% 49% 71% 53% 51% 62% Unfavorable 23 13 22 11 21 27 22 Hvn't hrd enough 15 13 26 16 20 18 15 REFUSED 2 3 2 2 5 5 1 IMPORTANT ISSUE TO VOTE/IMPORTANT QUALITY IN CANDIDATE.......... War Econ HlthCr Trust ShrVals Leader CanWin Inspires Favorable 67% 62% 60% 57% 60% 58% 70% 92% Unfavorable 15 19 17 22 17 22 15 1 Hvn't hrd enough 15 17 21 19 19 18 11 7 REFUSED 3 3 2 2 4 2 3 - CAND OF CHOICE Q1 Clinton Obama Favorable 38% 93% Unfavorable 33 2 Hvn't hrd enough 25 5 REFUSED 3 -
6. Some people have suggested that Senator Obama and Senator Clinton should run together in the general election for President in November. It could be a Clinton-Obama ticket, with Clinton running for President and Obama for Vice-President, or it could be an Obama-Clinton ticket, with Obama running for President and Clinton for Vice-President. Which would you rather see; a Clinton-Obama ticket, or an Obama-Clinton ticket, or would you rather they not run together?
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... Wht Wht Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Men Wom Clinton-Obama ticket 32% 24% 38% 35% 17% 27% 42% Obama-Clinton ticket 18 20 17 12 44 15 10 Not run together 43 49 39 46 31 51 42 DK/NA 7 7 6 6 8 7 6 CAND OF CHOICE Q1 Clinton Obama Clinton-Obama ticket 57% 2% Obama-Clinton ticket 1 43 Not run together 38 52 DK/NA 5 3
7. Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the Democratic primary for President this year;
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... Wht Wht Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Men Wom Terrorism 3% 2% 4% 3% 3% 2% 4% The war in Iraq 23 23 23 22 28 22 22 The economy 48 52 45 50 41 54 47 Illegal immigration 3 2 3 3 - 3 3 Health care 18 16 20 17 24 14 19 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 3 3 2 3 2 4 2 DK/NA 2 1 3 2 2 2 3 Age Age No col Col WBrnAgn 18-44 45+ degree degree Evangel Terrorism 2% 3% 4% 2% 3% The war in Iraq 17 26 23 23 16 The economy 53 46 47 50 55 Illegal immigration 3 3 3 2 6 Health care 20 17 19 16 16 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 4 2 2 4 2 DK/NA 1 3 3 2 2 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Terrorism 3% 7% 4% 2% 2% 3% 1% The war in Iraq 23 28 20 20 19 20 26 The economy 42 37 51 53 56 48 51 Illegal immigration 4 - 4 - 4 3 5 Health care 23 23 19 19 16 20 10 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 3 3 1 3 1 3 4 DK/NA 4 2 1 3 1 2 2 IMPORTANT QUALITY IN CANDIDATE.......... Trust ShrVals Leader CanWin Inspires Terrorism 3% 3% 4% 1% 1% The war in Iraq 26 23 19 30 34 The economy 48 44 50 53 45 Illegal immigration 4 3 2 - 1 Health care 16 20 20 14 18 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 2 6 2 1 1 DK/NA 1 2 3 1 - CAND OF CHOICE Q1 Clinton Obama Terrorism 4% 2% The war in Iraq 20 26 The economy 50 47 Illegal immigration 3 3 Health care 19 17 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 2 4 DK/NA 2 2
8. When you decide how to vote in the democratic primary for president, which of the following is the single most important quality you look for in a candidate;
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... Wht Wht Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Men Wom Trustworthy 23% 24% 22% 23% 21% 24% 23% Shares your values 22 20 24 22 26 20 23 A strong leader 37 32 41 37 39 33 40 Can win in November 11 13 9 11 8 14 9 Inspiring 5 7 3 5 5 7 3 DK/NA 2 3 2 2 - 2 2 Age Age No col Col WBrnAgn 18-44 45+ degree degree Evangel Trustworthy 18% 24% 27% 14% 31% Shares your values 26 20 21 24 21 A strong leader 35 39 37 37 36 Can win in November 11 11 9 14 7 Inspiring 6 5 3 8 4 DK/NA 4 2 3 2 - Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Trustworthy 27% 18% 20% 16% 30% 28% 26% Shares your values 20 19 24 24 17 25 23 A strong leader 31 43 46 36 40 35 32 Can win in November 15 10 4 14 7 8 11 Inspiring 5 7 2 6 5 3 5 DK/NA 1 2 3 5 1 1 3 IMPORTANT ISSUE TO VOTE............... Ter War Econ Immig HlthCr Trustworthy 23% 26% 23% 35% 20% Shares your values 18 22 20 27 23 A strong leader 48 30 39 28 41 Can win in November 4 14 12 1 8 Inspiring 2 7 5 3 5 DK/NA 6 - 2 6 3 CAND OF CHOICE Q1 Clinton Obama Trustworthy 21% 24% Shares your values 22 21 A strong leader 43 31 Can win in November 11 10 Inspiring 1 10 DK/NA 2 3
9. Which best describes your family's financial situation - getting ahead, falling behind, or holding steady?
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... Wht Wht Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Men Wom Getting ahead 19% 18% 19% 16% 29% 15% 16% Falling behind 19 20 17 20 14 22 17 Holding steady 62 61 63 64 56 62 66 DK/NA 1 1 - 1 1 - 1
10. How worried are you about being able to afford the cost of your health care over the next few years? Very worried, somewhat worried, not too worried, or not at all worried?
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... Wht Wht Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Men Wom Very worried 36% 35% 37% 34% 45% 34% 35% Smwht worried 34 34 34 36 26 37 35 Not too worried 19 19 19 19 15 19 20 Not at all worried 10 11 10 10 13 10 10 DK/NA - - - - 2 - -
11. Do you think the United States economy is in a recession now?
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... Wht Wht Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Men Wom Yes 82% 82% 81% 82% 79% 81% 82% No 15 14 15 15 18 16 14 DK/NA 4 3 4 4 3 3 4
12. What do you think should happen to most illegal immigrants working in the United States - A) Should they be offered a chance to apply for citizenship, OR B) Should they be allowed to stay as temporary workers, OR C) Should they be deported to the country they came from?
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... Wht Wht Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Men Wom A) Citizenship 49% 47% 51% 47% 57% 45% 49% B) Temporary workers 20 19 20 19 22 18 20 C) Deported 27 30 25 29 19 32 26 DK/NA 4 4 4 5 1 4 5
13. What should the United States do in Iraq? A) Withdraw all troops as soon as possible, OR B) Set a timetable to withdraw troops gradually OR C) Keep troops in Iraq as long as needed?
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... Wht Wht Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Men Wom A) Withdraw all troops 32% 27% 35% 28% 46% 27% 30% B) Set a timetable 53 53 53 56 42 54 57 C) As long as needed 13 17 9 13 10 16 11 DK/NA 3 3 2 3 2 3 3
14. How worried are you that there will be another major terrorist attack in the United States? Very worried, somewhat worried, not too worried, or not at all worried?
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS.......................... Wht Wht Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Men Wom Very worried 19% 14% 22% 17% 25% 13% 20% Smwht worried 48 47 49 50 41 46 53 Not too worried 24 28 22 25 23 29 21 Not at all worried 8 10 6 8 10 10 6 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1