Pennsylvania (PA) Poll * April 15, 2008 * Clinton Stalls Obama, Holds 6- - Quinnipiac University

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April 15, 2008 - Clinton Stalls Obama, Holds 6-Point Pennsylvania Lead, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Many Clinton Dems Would Back Mccain Over Obama

Word format New York Sen. Hillary Clinton has stalled Illinois Sen. Barack Obama's drive in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary and holds a 50 - 44 percent lead among likely primary voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today, unchanged from April 8 results.
There was no noticeable difference in the matchup in polling April 12 - 13, following widespread media reports on Sen. Obama's 'bitter' comments.
In this latest survey of 2,103 likely Democratic primary voters by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University, 26 percent of Clinton supporters would switch to Arizona Sen. John McCain, the Republican, in November if Obama were the Democratic nominee. Nineteen percent of Obama backers would switch to McCain if Clinton were the Democratic nominee. A look at other groups shows:
White voters for Clinton 57 - 37 percent, compared to 56 - 38 percent last week; Black voters back Obama 86 - 8 percent, compared to 75 - 17 percent; Women back Clinton 54 - 40 percent, unchanged from 54 - 41 percent last week; Men are for Obama 51 - 43 percent, compared to a 48 - 44 percent tie last week; Reagan Democrats back Clinton 55 - 40 percent; Voters under 45 go with Obama 55 - 39, while older voters back Clinton 55 - 40 percent.
"Sen. Hillary Clinton is fighting off Sen. Barack Obama's drive to make it a close race in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary, holding the six-point edge she had a week ago. She seems to have halted the erosion of whites and white women in particular from her campaign," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"She even gained back some ground in the Philadelphia suburbs - the area where elections are won and lost in the Keystone State. She now trails Obama by just two points in this critical area, while she was 11 points behind a week ago."
Obama will win the Democratic nomination, say 55 percent of Pennsylvania likely Democratic primary voters, including 32 percent of Clinton supporters.
"Two big questions are whether the Clinton forces can keep from getting discouraged by all the talk she can't win the nomination even if she wins Pennsylvania and whether enthusiasm for Obama will translate into a record turnout of blacks and young first-time voters that would deny Clinton the victory she needs to stay alive," Richards added.
"A bigger problem for Democrats looms in Pennsylvania. One out of four Clinton voters, including a third of men, say they will vote for Republican Sen. John McCain in November if Obama is the Democratic candidate.
By a 70 - 22 percent margin, Pennsylvania likely Democratic primary voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton, compared to 65 - 20 percent for Obama, virtually unchanged from last week.
The economy is the single most important issue in deciding their primary vote, 49 percent of Pennsylvania Democrats say, followed by 27 percent who list the war in Iraq and 16 percent who cite healthcare.
Voters who list the economy as their top issue give Clinton a small 50 - 44 percent margin over Obama, up from 49 - 45 percent. Voters who cite the war in Iraq back Obama 54 - 42 percent, up from 51 - 44 percent. Voters worried about health care go with Clinton 60 - 36 percent, compared to 62 - 32 percent last week.
Looking at the qualities they most want in a candidate, 36 percent of Pennsylvania Democrats are looking for a strong leader, with 29 percent looking for someone who is trustworthy and 17 percent seeking someone who shares their values.
Voters looking for a strong leader back Clinton 64 - 31 percent. Obama leads 52 - 40 percent with voters looking for a trustworthy candidate, down from 59 - 32 percent.
From April 9 - 13, Quinnipiac University surveyed 2,103 Pennsylvania likely Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.1 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research.
1. If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Clinton or Obama?(If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Clinton or Obama? This table includes "Leaners".
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS.............................. Reagan Union Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Dems HsHolds Clinton 50% 43% 54% 57% 8% 55% 51% Obama 44 51 40 37 86 40 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 1 1 - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 6 6 5 5 7 4 6 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Clinton 49% 33% 58% 46% 54% 66% 49% Obama 44 63 37 48 42 28 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 7 4 5 6 4 6 6 Age Age No col Col INCOME...... 18-44 45+ degree degree <50k 50k+ Clinton 39% 55% 54% 39% 50% 48% Obama 55 40 39 57 45 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 5 5 6 4 5 5 WHITE DEM LIKELY VOTERS............................ No col Col INCOME...... Men Wom degree degree Cath <50k 50k+ Clinton 51% 62% 63% 44% 63% 61% 53% Obama 44 32 31 51 30 33 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 - 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 5 5 6 4 6 5 4 IMP ISSUE TO VOTE Q4.../IMP QUALITY IN CANDIDATE Q5......... War Econ HlthCr /Trust ShrVals Leader CnWin Insprs Clinton 42% 50% 60% 40% 49% 64% 47% 17% Obama 54 44 36 52 47 31 46 78 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 4 6 4 7 4 5 7 6 Age........................ 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Clinton 35% 47% 49% 62% Obama 59 47 46 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - DK/NA 5 5 5 6
TREND: If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Clinton or Obama? *This table includes Leaners.
LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS.............. TOTAL......................................... Apr 15 Apr 8 Apr 2 Mar 18 Feb 27 Feb 14 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 Clinton 50 50 50 53 49 52 Obama 44 44 41 41 43 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 6 6 8 6 7 11 MEN........................................... Apr 15 Apr 8 Apr 2 Mar 18 Feb 27 Feb 14 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 Clinton 43 44 46 45 43 49 Obama 51 48 46 48 50 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 1 1 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 6 7 7 6 4 10 WOMEN......................................... Apr 15 Apr 8 Apr 2 Mar 18 Feb 27 Feb 14 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 Clinton 54 54 54 59 53 54 Obama 40 41 37 35 39 34 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 5 5 9 5 9 12 WHITE......................................... Apr 15 Apr 8 Apr 2 Mar 18 Feb 27 Feb 14 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 Clinton 57 56 59 61 56 58 Obama 37 38 34 33 37 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 5 6 7 6 7 9 BLACK......................................... Apr 15 Apr 8 Apr 2 Mar 18 Feb 27 Feb 14 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 Clinton 8 17 11 18 23 10 Obama 86 75 73 76 69 71 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 7 8 15 6 8 19 WHITE MEN..................................... Apr 15 Apr 8 Apr 2 Mar 18 Feb 27 Feb 14 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 Clinton 51 49 52 52 48 52 Obama 44 42 40 42 45 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 5 7 7 6 6 8 WHITE WOMEN................................... Apr 15 Apr 8 Apr 2 Mar 18 Feb 27 Feb 14 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 Clinton 62 62 63 68 61 62 Obama 32 34 29 26 31 28 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 5 4 7 5 8 10 AGE 18-44..................................... Apr 15 Apr 8 Apr 2 Mar 18 Feb 27 Feb 14 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 Clinton 39 40 42 39 41 52 Obama 55 55 51 57 58 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 5 4 7 3 1 7 AGE 45+....................................... Apr 15 Apr 8 Apr 2 Mar 18 Feb 27 Feb 14 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 Clinton 55 55 54 60 52 51 Obama 40 38 37 34 39 34 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 1 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 5 7 9 6 8 12 NO COLLEGE DEGREE............................. Apr 15 Apr 8 Apr 2 Mar 18 Feb 27 Feb 14 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 Clinton 54 54 55 57 52 57 Obama 39 38 36 37 39 28 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 6 7 9 6 8 13 COLLEGE DEGREE................................ Apr 15 Apr 8 Apr 2 Mar 18 Feb 27 Feb 14 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 Clinton 39 39 40 45 41 40 Obama 57 57 53 50 53 53 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 4 3 7 5 5 6 SOUTHEAST..................................... Apr 15 Apr 8 Apr 2 Mar 18 Feb 27 Feb 14 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 Clinton 46 42 44 52 41 42 Obama 48 53 49 44 53 54 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 6 5 8 4 6 4 INCOME <50K................................... Apr 15 Apr 8 Apr 2 Mar 18 Feb 27 Feb 14 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 Clinton 50 53 53 57 52 59 Obama 45 41 38 38 40 30 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 1 - 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 5 5 8 5 6 9 INCOME 50K+................................... Apr 15 Apr 8 Apr 2 Mar 18 Feb 27 Feb 14 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 Clinton 48 49 49 49 46 43 Obama 47 47 45 46 48 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 5 4 6 5 6 8
2. Is your opinion of -- Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS.............................. Reagan Union Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Dems HsHolds Favorable 70% 66% 73% 73% 58% 62% 71% Unfavorable 22 27 19 21 30 31 22 Hvn't hrd enough 5 4 5 4 6 4 5 REFUSED 3 3 2 2 6 2 2 Age Age No col Col INCOME...... 18-44 45+ degree degree <50k 50k+ Favorable 64% 73% 71% 67% 70% 71% Unfavorable 28 20 21 27 22 23 Hvn't hrd enough 5 5 6 2 5 4 REFUSED 3 2 2 3 3 2
TREND: Is your opinion of -- Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS..... Apr 15 Apr 8 Apr 2 Mar 18 2008 2008 2008 2008 Favorable 70 71 71 71 Unfavorable 22 23 23 23 Hvn't hrd enough 5 4 4 4 REFUSED 3 2 2 2
3. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS.............................. Reagan Union Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Dems HsHolds Favorable 65% 67% 63% 59% 95% 55% 64% Unfavorable 20 19 20 22 1 29 22 Hvn't hrd enough 13 12 14 15 3 15 12 REFUSED 3 3 3 3 1 1 3 Age Age No col Col INCOME...... 18-44 45+ degree degree <50k 50k+ Favorable 72% 61% 59% 79% 62% 69% Unfavorable 14 22 23 12 21 18 Hvn't hrd enough 11 14 15 8 14 11 REFUSED 2 3 3 2 2 2
TREND: Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS..... Apr 15 Apr 8 Apr 2 Mar 18 2008 2008 2008 2008 Favorable 65 67 63 61 Unfavorable 20 19 21 19 Hvn't hrd enough 13 11 14 17 REFUSED 3 3 2 3
4. Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the Democratic primary for President this year? (Read options)
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS.............................. Reagan Union Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Dems HsHolds Terrorism 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 4% 2% The war in Iraq 27 25 28 27 23 24 25 The economy 49 51 48 49 55 49 55 Illegal immigration 2 3 2 2 1 6 2 Health care 16 14 17 16 16 13 12 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 4 2 2 DK/NA 3 3 2 2 - 2 2 Age Age No col Col INCOME...... 18-44 45+ degree degree <50k 50k+ Terrorism 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% The war in Iraq 25 27 25 30 25 27 The economy 54 47 49 49 48 54 Illegal immigration 2 2 3 1 3 2 Health care 12 17 17 13 18 12 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 3 2 2 2 2 2 DK/NA 3 2 3 2 3 1
TREND: Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the Democratic primary for President this year? (Read Options)
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Apr 15 Apr 8 Mar 18 2008 2008 2008 Terrorism 2 3 3 The war in Iraq 27 22 23 The economy 49 52 48 Illegal immigration 2 2 3 Health care 16 15 18 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 2 2 3 DK/NA 3 3 2
5. When you decide how to vote in the Democratic primary for president, which of the following is the single most important quality you look for in a candidate? (Read options)
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS.............................. Reagan Union Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Dems HsHolds Trustworthy 29% 30% 29% 28% 37% 33% 30% Shares your values 17 16 18 18 16 15 23 A strong leader 36 30 40 37 29 38 32 Can win in November 9 13 6 9 8 7 8 Inspiring 7 9 5 6 9 5 5 DK/NA 2 2 1 2 1 3 2 Age Age No col Col INCOME...... 18-44 45+ degree degree <50k 50k+ Trustworthy 26% 31% 32% 24% 32% 26% Shares your values 21 16 16 20 18 19 A strong leader 34 36 37 33 35 36 Can win in November 9 8 7 13 8 10 Inspiring 8 6 5 9 5 8 DK/NA 1 2 2 1 2 1 LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Apr 15 Apr 8 Mar 18 2008 2008 2008 Trustworthy 29 27 23 Shares your values 17 18 22 A strong leader 36 37 37 Can win in November 9 10 11 Inspiring 7 5 5 DK/NA 2 3 2
6. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think will win the Democratic party's nomination for President - Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama?
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS.............................. Reagan Union Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Dems HsHolds Clinton 30% 26% 32% 33% 13% 33% 32% Obama 55 62 50 53 70 54 53 DK/NA 15 11 18 14 17 13 15 Age Age No col Col INCOME...... 18-44 45+ degree degree <50k 50k+ Clinton 23% 33% 35% 19% 34% 25% Obama 66 51 49 69 51 63 DK/NA 12 16 16 12 15 12 Age........................ 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Clinton 21% 27% 27% 41% Obama 68 60 59 38 DK/NA 10 13 14 21 Clinton Obama Voters Voters Clinton 52% 7% Obama 32 84 DK/NA 16 9
7. (If Obama supporter Q1)If Barack Obama loses the Democratic nomination to Hillary Clinton, who would you vote for in the general election for president in November - Hillary Clinton the Democrat or John McCain the Republican?
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS.............................. OBAMA SUPPORTER Q1..................................... Reagan Union Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Dems HsHolds Clinton 70% 67% 72% 63% 88% 37% 74% McCain 19 22 16 25 5 51 15 DK/NA 11 11 12 12 7 12 11 Age Age No col Col INCOME...... 18-44 45+ degree degree <50k 50k+ Clinton 73% 68% 70% 70% 71% 71% McCain 18 19 19 19 20 17 DK/NA 9 13 12 11 9 11
8. (If Clinton supporter q1)If Hillary Clinton loses the Democratic nomination to Barack Obama, who would you vote for in the general election for president in November - Barack Obama the Democrat or John McCain the Republican? (Black subgroup too small for accurate analysis)
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS.............................. CLINTON SUPPORTER Q1................................... Reagan Union Tot Men Wom Wht Blk* Dems HsHolds Obama 50% 45% 54% 50% 36% 49% McCain 26 34 22 27 42 34 DK/NA 23 21 24 23 21 17 Age Age No col Col INCOME...... 18-44 45+ degree degree <50k 50k+ Obama 54% 49% 47% 62% 50% 52% McCain 24 27 27 25 22 31 DK/NA 22 23 26 13 28 18
9. Would you say that Hillary Clinton is honest and trustworthy or not?
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS.............................. Reagan Union Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Dems HsHolds Yes 66% 62% 70% 69% 54% 56% 69% No 26 30 23 24 33 37 22 DK/NA 8 8 8 7 12 6 9 Age Age No col Col INCOME...... 18-44 45+ degree degree <50k 50k+ Yes 62% 68% 68% 62% 66% 66% No 31 24 23 31 27 25 DK/NA 8 8 8 7 8 8
10. Would you say that Barack Obama is honest and trustworthy or not?
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS.............................. Reagan Union Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Dems HsHolds Yes 74% 75% 72% 70% 94% 67% 70% No 14 16 13 17 1 21 19 DK/NA 12 9 15 13 4 12 11 Age Age No col Col INCOME...... 18-44 45+ degree degree <50k 50k+ Yes 81% 71% 68% 86% 72% 77% No 12 15 17 9 14 15 DK/NA 7 14 15 6 14 8
11. Would you say that Hillary Clinton has strong leadership qualities or not?
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS.............................. Reagan Union Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Dems HsHolds Yes 84% 79% 88% 87% 69% 77% 82% No 13 18 10 12 23 22 15 DK/NA 3 3 2 1 8 1 2 Age Age No col Col INCOME...... 18-44 45+ degree degree <50k 50k+ Yes 81% 85% 84% 85% 83% 85% No 16 12 13 13 14 14 DK/NA 3 3 3 1 4 1
12. Would you say that Barack Obama has strong leadership qualities or not?
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS.............................. Reagan Union Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Dems HsHolds Yes 70% 71% 69% 65% 90% 61% 67% No 19 18 19 22 2 27 24 DK/NA 12 11 12 13 8 11 9 Age Age No col Col INCOME...... 18-44 45+ degree degree <50k 50k+ Yes 79% 65% 64% 82% 67% 74% No 13 22 21 11 20 18 DK/NA 8 13 14 6 13 9
13. Which best describes your family's financial situation - Getting ahead, falling behind or holding steady?
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS.............................. Reagan Union Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Dems HsHolds Getting ahead 13% 15% 11% 13% 12% 14% 12% Falling behind 20 18 21 21 17 19 22 Holding steady 66 66 66 65 69 67 66 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Getting ahead 14% 16% 11% 15% 13% 7% 13% Falling behind 20 16 22 16 28 22 19 Holding steady 65 68 65 68 59 71 66 DK/NA 1 - 2 1 - - 3
TREND: Which best describes your family's financial situation - getting ahead, falling behind, or holding steady?
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS..... Apr 15 Apr 8 Apr 2 Mar 18 2008 2008 2008 2008 Getting ahead 13 13 14 19 Falling behind 20 21 19 19 Holding steady 66 65 67 62 DK/NA 1 1 - 1
14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS.............................. Reagan Union Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Dems HsHolds Approve 6% 8% 5% 7% 4% 15% 6% Disapprove 91 90 93 91 94 81 92 DK/NA 2 2 2 2 2 4 3
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Apr 15 Apr 8 Apr 2 2008 2008 2008 Approve 6 6 6 Disapprove 91 91 92 DK/NA 2 3 2
15. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS.............................. Reagan Union Tot Men Wom Wht Blk Dems HsHolds Right thing 12% 12% 12% 13% 5% 23% 12% Wrong thing 84 84 84 83 88 71 84 DK/NA 4 4 4 3 8 5 4
TREND: Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS Apr 15 Apr 8 Apr 2 2008 2008 2008 Right thing 12 11 12 Wrong thing 84 84 84 DK/NA 4 5 3