Pennsylvania (PA) Poll * March 25, 2009 * Little-Known GOP Challenger To - Quinnipiac University

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March 25, 2009 - Little-Known GOP Challenger Tops Specter In Primary, Quinnipiac University Pennsylvania Poll Finds; Support For Obama Plan Helps Among Democrats

Word format Apparently paying a political price for his support of President Barack Obama's Stimulus Plan, longtime Pennsylvania U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter trails former Congressman Pat Toomey 41 - 27 percent in a Republican primary for the 2010 Senate race, with 28 percent undecided, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
Overall Pennsylvania voters have a 45 - 31 percent favorable opinion of Sen. Specter, but he gets a 47 - 29 percent unfavorable score from Republicans. The Republican gets a 60 - 16 percent thumbs up from Democrats and a 41 - 35 percent positive from independent voters, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Even though Toomey lost the 2004 Republican primary to Specter by less than two points, 78 percent of all voters, including 73 percent of Republicans, don't know enough about him to form an opinion.
Voters approve 52 - 33 percent of the job Specter is doing, with a 71 - 16 percent positive score from Democrats and a 41 - 37 percent boost from independent voters, off-setting a 52 - 36 percent disapproval from Republicans. This is Specter's highest approval among Democrats and lowest approval among Republicans since Quinnipiac University began polling Pennsylvania in 2002.
Specter's support of President Barack Obama's Stimulus Package wins 87 - 6 percent support from Democrats and 56 - 38 percent support from independent voters, while Republican voters disapprove 70 - 25 percent.
"Pennsylvania Republicans are so unhappy with Sen. Specter's vote for President Barack Obama's Stimulus Package and so-called pork barrel spending that they are voting for a former Congressman they hardly know," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Toomey came close last time and has strong conservative backing, but his challenge could be fractured if more Republicans crowd into the primary and split the anti-Specter vote," Richards added.
"If Specter can get past the primary, the controversial veteran has a lot going for him in his bid for reelection, especially without a strong Democratic candidate on the horizon."
Pennsylvania voters say 41 - 38 percent that Specter does not deserve to be reelected. Again, Republicans and independent voters line up against him, while Democrats support him.
If the 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today, 31 percent of voters say they would vote for Specter while 33 percent say they would vote for an unnamed Democratic challenger, with 35 percent undecided. In this case, Republicans back Specter 47 - 17 percent, while he loses 48 - 24 percent among Democrats and 35 - 23 percent among independent voters.
By a 54 - 41 percent margin, voters say Specter is not too old to effectively serve another six-year term in the U.S. Senate. Support is consistent among all parties.
Pennsylvania voters say 50 - 37 percent that $161 million for Pennsylvania projects included in the Economic Stimulus plan is money critically needed for local projects rather than pork barrel spending that could be eliminated.
But voters say 52 - 35 percent that Specter's seniority in Washington is not a reason to reelect him in 2010.
Gov. Rendell's Approval
Pennsylvania voters approve 50 - 38 percent of the job Gov. Ed Rendell is doing, compared to 47 - 38 percent February 11. Voters split 44 - 43 percent in their approval of how Gov. Rendell is handling the economy.
Pennsylvania's junior Senator Robert Casey gets a 52 - 23 percent approval rating. The Democrat's 35 - 39 percent score among Republicans is better than Specter's negative score.
From March 19 - 23, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,056 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. The survey includes 423 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.8 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
1. (If registered Republican) If the 2010 Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Arlen Specter and Pat Toomey, for whom would you vote?
Reg Reps Specter 27% Toomey 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 DK/NA 28
2. Is your opinion of - Arlen Specter favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 45% 29% 60% 41% 44% 46% Unfavorable 31 47 16 35 36 25 Hvn't hrd enough 21 23 20 19 16 25 REFUSED 3 1 4 5 3 4 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 47% 62% 42% 59% 36% 42% 32% Unfavorable 25 17 32 25 36 35 39 Hvn't hrd enough 24 17 21 14 27 20 25 REFUSED 4 4 5 1 2 2 5
TREND: Is your opinion of - Arlen Specter favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Mar 25 Nov 26 Aug 5 2009 2008 2008 Favorable 45% 56 55 Unfavorable 31 23 26 Hvn't hrd enough 21 19 16 REFUSED 3 3 3
3. Is your opinion of - Pat Toomey favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 14% 24% 4% 18% 20% 9% Unfavorable 6 2 9 4 8 4 Hvn't hrd enough 78 73 85 76 70 85 REFUSED 2 1 2 2 2 2 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 15% 4% 24% 13% 14% 14% 16% Unfavorable 4 6 9 6 3 9 4 Hvn't hrd enough 74 88 66 80 82 77 78 REFUSED 6 3 1 1 1 1 2
4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling his job as Governor?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 50% 28% 71% 46% 49% 51% Disapprove 38 59 21 41 41 36 DK/NA 12 13 9 13 11 13 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 46% 79% 48% 73% 27% 48% 30% Disapprove 45 7 43 21 50 43 55 DK/NA 9 15 8 6 24 9 14
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling his job as Governor? (*Also 46% on 10/5/2005, 4/22/2004, 3/18/2004 and 12/16/2003)
APPROVE...... High Low Mar 25 Feb 11 Nov 26 Aug 5 Feb 28 Feb 7 Apr 5 2009 2009 2008 2008 2008 2007 2006* Approve 50% 47 55 54 52 61 46 Disapprove 38 38 34 37 34 30 37 DK/NA 12 15 12 9 13 9 17
5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 37% 33% 44% 31% 38% 35% Disapprove 43 46 34 52 47 40 DK/NA 20 21 22 17 14 25 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 20% 39% 40% 47% 35% 46% 29% Disapprove 61 34 44 33 34 39 53 DK/NA 20 28 16 20 31 15 18
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
APPROVE..... High Low Mar 25 Feb 11 Nov 26 Aug 5 Feb 28 Apr 10 Oct 5 2009 2009 2008 2008 2008 2003 2005 Approve 37% 39 39 32 37 49 26 Disapprove 43 42 42 51 42 24 60 DK/NA 20 20 20 17 21 27 14
6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 52% 36% 71% 41% 50% 53% Disapprove 33 52 16 37 39 28 DK/NA 15 12 13 23 11 19 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 58% 69% 46% 63% 40% 57% 38% Disapprove 27 18 41 26 36 37 41 DK/NA 15 13 14 11 24 6 21
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator?
APPROVE....... High Low Mar 25 Feb 11 Nov 26 Aug 5 Feb 28 Nov 26 Apr 22 2009 2009 2008 2008 2008 2008 2004 Approve 52% 56 62 59 54 62 47 Disapprove 33 30 25 29 31 25 36 DK/NA 15 14 13 12 14 13 17
7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Casey Jr. is handling his job as United States Senator?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 52% 35% 68% 49% 51% 53% Disapprove 23 39 11 23 29 18 DK/NA 25 26 21 28 20 29 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 62% 57% 50% 54% 53% 56% 44% Disapprove 19 17 28 20 21 25 27 DK/NA 19 26 22 25 25 19 29
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Casey Jr. is handling his job as United States Senator?
APPROVE....... High Low Mar 25 Feb 11 Nov 26 Aug 5 Feb 28 Nov 26 Mar 28 2009 2009 2008 2008 2008 2008 2007 Approve 52% 54 55 47 50 55 46 Disapprove 23 23 20 25 20 20 18 DK/NA 25 23 26 28 30 26 35
8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 61% 27% 90% 58% 58% 64% Disapprove 30 63 3 32 33 27 DK/NA 9 10 8 10 10 8 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 70% 78% 56% 69% 51% 55% 51% Disapprove 20 14 31 27 40 32 38 DK/NA 10 8 12 4 9 13 10
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
Mar 25 Feb 12 2009 2009 Approve 61% 63 Disapprove 30 22 DK/NA 9 15
9. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Pennsylvania today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Very satisfied 4% 1% 7% 2% 3% 4% Smwht satisfied 47 37 54 45 45 48 Smwht dissatisfied 31 41 22 33 33 28 Very dissatisfied 18 20 13 18 18 18 DK/NA 2 - 3 1 1 3 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Very satisfied 3% 5% 4% 6% 2% 3% 2% Smwht satisfied 42 54 51 60 41 45 35 Smwht dissatisfied 32 23 29 20 42 36 37 Very dissatisfied 20 11 15 14 14 15 25 DK/NA 2 8 - - 1 1 1
TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Pennsylvania today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? (*also combined low=46% 10/05/2005)
VERY+SMWHT.... High Low Mar 25 Feb 11 Nov 26 Aug 5 Aug 22 Jun 5 Nov 26 2009 2009 2008 2008 2007 2002 2008* Very satisfied 4% 3 3 4 4 8 3 Smwht satisfied 47 46 43 44 51 60 43 Smwht dissatisfied 31 33 34 32 31 22 34 Very dissatisifed 18 17 18 19 13 8 18 DK/NA 2 1 2 1 1 3 2
10. Looking ahead to the 2010 election for United States Senator, do you feel that Arlen Specter deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes/Deserves 38% 30% 51% 32% 38% 39% No/Does not 41 53 28 49 49 35 DK/NA 20 17 21 19 13 26 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Yes/Deserves 38% 49% 36% 48% 28% 47% 28% No/Does not 36 28 48 29 48 48 51 DK/NA 26 23 17 22 24 5 21
TREND: Looking ahead to the 2010 election for United States Senator, do you feel that Arlen Specter deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
Mar 25 Feb 11 2009 2009 Yes/Deserves 38% 40 No/Does not 41 43 DK/NA 20 17
11. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today, do you think you would vote for Arlen Specter, the Republican candidate, or for the Democratic candidate?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Specter 31% 47% 24% 23% 32% 31% Democrat 33 17 48 35 36 31 DK/NA 35 36 27 42 32 38 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Specter 20% 39% 25% 37% 31% 35% 29% Democrat 41 31 38 25 38 40 32 DK/NA 38 30 36 38 32 25 39
12. At age 79, do you think Arlen Specter is too old to effectively serve another 6-year term as United States Senator, or not?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 41% 41% 44% 38% 39% 43% No 54 54 51 59 56 52 DK/NA 5 5 5 3 5 5 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Yes 46% 35% 52% 33% 36% 45% 43% No 49 60 46 61 59 51 51 DK/NA 5 5 2 6 5 4 6
13. In less than four years Senator Arlen Specter will be the highest ranking Republican on the Senate Appropriations Committee. Do you think he should be reelected in 2010 to maintain this seniority in Congress for Pennsylvania?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes 35% 33% 41% 28% 34% 36% No 52 57 45 61 57 48 DK/NA 13 11 14 11 10 16 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Yes 32% 41% 33% 45% 33% 37% 27% No 44 41 61 44 56 59 60 DK/NA 24 18 7 11 12 4 14
14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling the economy?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 44% 24% 59% 44% 44% 43% Disapprove 43 66 26 42 44 41 DK/NA 14 10 15 14 12 16 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 35% 73% 43% 61% 22% 41% 28% Disapprove 51 15 43 25 59 49 57 DK/NA 15 12 14 13 18 10 14 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. NoColl College 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Degree Degree Approve 41% 43% 47% 46% 45% 48% 41% 50% Disapprove 43 43 41 42 44 37 45 37 DK/NA 16 14 12 12 11 14 14 13
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling the economy?
Mar 25 Feb 12 Feb 11 2009 2009 2009 Approve 44% 42 42 Disapprove 43 47 47 DK/NA 14 11 11
15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the economy?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 56% 26% 85% 51% 54% 59% Disapprove 36 67 7 42 40 32 DK/NA 8 7 9 7 7 10 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 67% 76% 49% 60% 49% 52% 47% Disapprove 25 13 43 31 41 42 46 DK/NA 8 12 7 9 10 6 7 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. NoColl College 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Degree Degree Approve 56% 57% 58% 61% 55% 54% 55% 58% Disapprove 41 33 35 32 38 39 35 36 DK/NA 3 10 7 7 6 7 9 6
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the economy?
Mar 25 Feb 12 2009 2009 Approve 56% 59 Disapprove 36 26 DK/NA 8 16
16. Would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days as excellent, good, not so good, or poor?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Excellent - 1% - - - 1% Good 4 4 4 2 4 4 Not so good 39 39 43 38 42 37 Poor 56 56 51 59 53 58 DK/NA 1 - 1 1 1 1 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Excellent - - - 2% - - 1% Good 3 7 5 2 7 3 3 Not so good 49 42 36 41 43 33 36 Poor 48 49 60 54 51 64 59 DK/NA - 3 - 1 - - 2 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. NoColl College 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Degree Degree Excellent 2% - - 1% - - 1% - Good - 5 4 5 3 4 4 3 Not so good 52 35 38 37 47 42 38 43 Poor 44 58 58 56 50 54 56 53 DK/NA 2 1 - 1 - - 1 1
TREND: Would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days as excellent, good, not so good, or poor?
Mar 25 Feb 12 Feb 27 Sep 28 Sep 16 Aug 18 Jul 14 2009 2009 2008 2004 2004 2004 2004 Excellent - - 1 2 3 2 3 Good 4 4 19 34 36 34 37 Not so good 39 30 44 39 39 44 41 Poor 56 66 35 23 22 20 18 DK/NA 1 - 1 1 1 1 1
17. Do you think the nation's economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Better 19% 11% 25% 19% 23% 16% Worse 36 49 27 37 34 38 The same 42 38 45 41 41 42 DK/NA 3 2 3 2 1 3 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Better 19% 32% 19% 22% 14% 15% 15% Worse 30 23 42 32 40 44 41 The same 48 40 39 42 43 39 42 DK/NA 3 4 1 4 2 2 2 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. NoColl College 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Degree Degree Better 26% 15% 20% 21% 20% 22% 18% 23% Worse 30 38 38 38 36 34 39 30 The same 43 45 40 39 43 44 41 45 DK/NA - 3 3 2 1 1 3 2
18. Would you describe the state of Pennsylvania's economy these days as excellent, good, not so good, or poor?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Excellent - 1% - - - 1% Good 17 14 18 19 17 16 Not so good 55 58 53 53 60 50 Poor 26 26 26 27 23 29 DK/NA 2 1 3 1 1 3 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Excellent - - - 2% - - 1% Good 24 20 9 19 19 12 15 Not so good 55 52 65 55 47 57 53 Poor 21 22 25 21 34 31 30 DK/NA - 6 1 3 - 1 2 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. NoColl College 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Degree Degree Excellent 2% - - 1% - - 1% - Good 26 13 15 17 22 11 16 17 Not so good 55 54 56 55 55 56 56 53 Poor 18 31 26 24 23 33 25 28 DK/NA - 1 3 2 1 - 2 1
TREND: Would you describe the state of Pennsylvania's economy these days as excellent, good, not so good, or poor?
Exclnt+Good... High Low Mar 25 Feb 12 Feb 11 Jul 14 Jul 13 Jun 24 Feb 12 2009 2009 2009 2005 2004 2004 2009 Excellent - - - 1 1 1 - Good 17 11 11 41 41 42 11 Not so good 55 50 50 43 43 42 50 Poor 26 38 38 13 12 13 38 DK/NA 2 1 1 2 3 2 1
19. Do you think Pennsylvania's economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Better 5% 5% 6% 4% 4% 7% Worse 35 41 30 34 30 41 The same 56 52 59 59 65 48 DK/NA 3 2 4 2 1 5 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Better 8% 5% 5% 7% 6% 4% 4% Worse 26 30 36 30 40 37 43 The same 64 53 57 61 54 57 52 DK/NA 2 12 2 3 - 3 2 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. NoColl College 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Degree Degree Better 9% 3% 6% 5% 4% 9% 4% 8% Worse 31 38 34 35 37 34 37 31 The same 60 57 56 58 58 58 55 59 DK/NA - 2 5 2 1 - 4 1
20. Would you describe the state of your own personal finances these days as - excellent, good, not so good, or poor?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Excellent 6% 11% 4% 6% 8% 5% Good 44 40 45 45 44 44 Not so good 35 37 34 35 36 34 Poor 12 9 14 12 11 13 DK/NA 3 2 3 2 2 3 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Excellent 2% 6% 7% 4% 9% 7% 8% Good 49 28 40 52 49 36 47 Not so good 28 45 42 30 27 44 32 Poor 15 14 10 11 14 11 10 DK/NA 6 7 1 2 1 1 2 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. NoColl College 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Degree Degree Excellent 14% 6% 4% 4% 9% 12% 5% 9% Good 55 48 35 32 57 69 37 61 Not so good 25 30 45 46 25 14 41 20 Poor 5 14 12 17 8 4 14 8 DK/NA 1 2 3 1 2 - 3 2
TREND: Would you describe the state of your own personal finances these days as - excellent, good, not so good, or poor?
Mar 25 Feb 12 Nov 26 2009 2009 2008 Excellent 6% 5 5 Good 44 45 47 Not so good 35 32 32 Poor 12 16 15 DK/NA 3 1 1
21. Do you think your personal finances are getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Better 11% 8% 11% 12% 13% 8% Worse 29 30 24 35 30 28 The same 59 61 63 52 56 62 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Better 18% 8% 6% 17% 13% 8% 8% Worse 24 26 29 33 29 35 27 The same 55 63 65 50 57 57 65 DK/NA 2 3 1 - 2 1 - AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. NoColl College 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Degree Degree Better 25% 10% 5% 6% 16% 19% 8% 19% Worse 15 31 33 29 29 24 30 27 The same 60 58 61 65 55 56 61 54 DK/NA - 1 1 1 - - 1 1
22. Senator Arlen Specter was one of only three Republican Senators to vote for President Obama's stimulus package. Do you approve or disapprove of Arlen Specter voting for President Obama's stimulus package?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Approve 59% 25% 87% 56% 60% 58% Disapprove 36 70 6 38 38 33 DK/NA 6 5 7 6 2 9 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 66% 75% 57% 63% 47% 58% 50% Disapprove 23 19 38 32 46 37 46 DK/NA 11 6 4 6 7 5 4 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. NoColl College 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Degree Degree Approve 58% 62% 57% 62% 62% 56% 58% 62% Disapprove 36 34 36 32 35 41 35 36 DK/NA 5 4 7 6 3 3 7 2
23. The 410 billion dollar spending bill recently signed into law by President Obama contains 161 million dollars in projects for Pennsylvania, secured mainly through Senator Arlen Specter's high ranking seniority on the appropriations committee. Which comes closer to your point of view - the 161 million dollars is money critically needed by Pennsylvania for local projects or the 161 million dollars represents costly earmarks, pork barrel spending that should be eliminated in the current economic crisis?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Money critically needed 50% 29% 69% 48% 48% 52% Spending that should be eliminated 37 60 19 38 40 34 DK/NA 13 12 12 14 12 14 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Money critically needed 50% 68% 50% 51% 46% 52% 41% Spending that should be eliminated 35 15 37 35 43 39 47 DK/NA 14 17 14 14 12 9 13 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. NoColl College 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Degree Degree Money critically needed 48% 51% 51% 54% 51% 44% 50% 49% Spending that should be eliminated 43 34 38 35 39 40 37 38 DK/NA 9 14 12 12 10 16 13 14