Pennsylvania (PA) Poll * May 4, 2009 * Ridge Trails Pennsylvania's Sp - Quinnipiac University

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May 4, 2009 - Ridge Trails Pennsylvania's Specter By 3 Points, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; New Democratic Senator Tops Toomey By 20 Points

Word format Newly-minted Democratic Sen. Arlen Specter would whip old Republican rival Pat Toomey 53 - 33 percent if the 2010 Pennsylvania U.S. Senate race were held today, but if popular former Gov. Tom Ridge becomes the Republican candidate, he trails Specter by just 46 - 43 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
Independent voters, who back Sen. Specter over Toomey 45 - 36 percent, switch to Ridge 47 - 37 percent if he becomes a candidate. The former Republican Governor also gets 14 percent of the Democratic vote, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.
In the Specter-Toomey matchup, Republicans back Toomey 74 - 18 percent while Democrats go with their new convert 85 - 4 percent. Men back Specter 47 - 41 percent, as do women 59 - 26 percent. Union households go Democratic 62 - 27 percent.
In a Specter-Ridge face-off, Republicans go with Ridge 82 - 10 percent, while Specter takes Democrats 78 - 14 percent. Men shift to Ridge 50 - 41 percent, while women remain Democratic 51 - 37 percent. Union households back Specter 57 - 34 percent.
"A former Republican Senator running as a Democrat against a popular former Republican governor seeking to make a political comeback would be a battle royal in Pennsylvania," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Gov. Tom Ridge is probably the only political figure in Pennsylvania who could give Sen. Arlen Specter a run for his money. But even if he gets a strong challenge from a Republican, Specter is still better off for having changed parties because he seemed headed to certain defeat had he stayed a Republican and faced Toomey in a primary.
"Ridge is popular, but Specter is now lined up with the powerful Democratic machine run by Gov. Ed Rendell and can count on a popular President Barack Obama coming to campaign for him if needed. Significantly, Specter leads both Toomey and Ridge by more than 20 points among union households even though the Senator says he will vote against the most important labor legislation in Congress this year," Richards added.
Pennsylvania voters approve 56 - 36 percent, including 81 - 10 percent among Democrats, of the job Specter is doing. By a 52 - 34 percent margin, voters have a favorable opinion of Specter. Toomey gets a 20 - 13 percent favorability, but 67 percent don't know enough about him to form an opinion. Ridge gets a 55 - 19 percent favorability.
Voters say 49 - 41 percent that Specter deserves to be reelected and say 60 - 37 percent that he is not too old to serve another six-year U.S. Senate term. Even voters 18 to 34 years old say 67 - 31 percent that Specter is not too old.
Because Specter opposes the pro-union Employee Free Choice Act, 23 percent of voters are less likely to vote for him, while 14 percent are more likely and 60 percent say this will not affect their vote. There is little difference from the overall totals among union households.
Even though voters approve 66 - 29 percent of the job President Barack Obama is doing, they say 52 - 44 percent that the Democratic dominance in the Senate is "dangerous" because President Obama and the Democrats would be able to steamroll over Republicans.
Swine Flu
A total of 31 percent of Pennsylvania voters are "very worried" or "somewhat worried" that someone in their family will get swine flu, while 68 percent are "not too worried" or "not worried at all." Government's reaction to swine flu has been "justified," 66 percent say, while 29 percent say it has been "overblown." But 63 percent say the media's reaction has been "overblown," while 34 percent say it has been "justified."
From April 29 - May 3, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,120 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
1. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Arlen Specter the Democrat and Pat Toomey the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Specter 53% 18% 85% 45% 47% 59% 62% Toomey 33 74 4 36 41 26 27 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 2 3 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 2 - 1 1 - DK/NA 10 8 8 15 9 12 9 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Specter 66% 82% 48% 55% 40% 41% 45% Toomey 19 10 36 37 43 40 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 3 5 1 4 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 - 4 - 2 DK/NA 14 6 10 7 9 18 11
2. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Arlen Specter the Democrat and Tom Ridge the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Specter 46% 10% 78% 37% 41% 51% 57% Ridge 43 82 14 47 50 37 34 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 3 3 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 DK/NA 8 6 6 11 5 10 7 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Specter 59% 82% 42% 48% 27% 34% 37% Ridge 30 11 42 44 64 57 50 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 5 2 4 3 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 - - 3 DK/NA 10 6 9 5 5 6 10
3. Is your opinion of -- Arlen Specter favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 52% 20% 77% 51% 48% 56% 61% Unfavorable 34 70 8 35 41 27 24 Hvn't hrd enough 12 9 13 12 9 15 14 REFUSED 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 63% 75% 49% 56% 37% 36% 46% Unfavorable 26 9 41 33 42 47 37 Hvn't hrd enough 9 14 9 7 18 15 15 REFUSED 2 2 1 4 2 2 3
TREND: Is your opinion of - Arlen Specter favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
May 4 Mar 25 Nov 26 Aug 5 2009 2009 2008 2008 Favorable 52 45 56 55 Unfavorable 34 31 23 26 Hvn't hrd enough 12 21 19 16 REFUSED 2 3 3 3
4. Is your opinion of -- Pat Toomey favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 20% 40% 5% 19% 25% 14% 16% Unfavorable 13 3 19 15 15 10 16 Hvn't hrd enough 67 57 76 64 59 75 67 REFUSED 1 - - 2 1 - 1 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 13% 5% 28% 21% 18% 25% 22% Unfavorable 21 11 17 17 11 3 9 Hvn't hrd enough 65 85 55 61 71 72 68 REFUSED 1 - - 2 1 - 1
TREND: Is your opinion of - Pat Toomey favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
May 4 Mar 25 2009 2009 Favorable 20 14 Unfavorable 13 6 Hvn't hrd enough 67 78 REFUSED 1 2
5. Is your opinion of -- Tom Ridge favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 55% 78% 37% 62% 60% 51% 46% Unfavorable 19 5 31 17 22 17 31 Hvn't hrd enough 23 15 30 18 17 29 19 REFUSED 2 1 2 3 2 2 4 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 53% 34% 47% 55% 61% 59% 66% Unfavorable 23 30 15 24 13 13 17 Hvn't hrd enough 23 33 35 18 23 25 17 REFUSED 1 3 3 3 3 3 1
6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling his job as Governor?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 53% 26% 72% 57% 47% 58% 56% Disapprove 38 66 20 34 45 32 39 DK/NA 9 9 8 9 8 10 6 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 44% 76% 52% 69% 36% 47% 41% Disapprove 45 20 41 20 54 41 50 DK/NA 10 4 7 10 10 12 9
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling his job as Governor? (*Also 46% on 10/5/2005, 4/22/2004, 3/18/2004 and 12/16/2003)
APPROVE...... High Low May 4 Mar 25 Feb 11 Nov 26 Aug 5 Feb 7 Apr 5 2009 2009 2009 2008 2008 2007 2006* Approve 53 50 47 55 54 61 46 Disapprove 38 38 38 34 37 30 37 DK/NA 9 12 15 12 9 9 17
7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 42% 33% 50% 39% 39% 45% 47% Disapprove 40 55 30 41 47 34 41 DK/NA 17 12 20 20 14 21 12 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 33% 47% 46% 49% 45% 41% 37% Disapprove 45 29 45 30 44 42 47 DK/NA 21 24 9 22 10 17 16
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
APPROVE..... High Low May 4 Mar 25 Feb 11 Nov 26 Aug 5 Apr 10 Oct 5 2009 2009 2009 2008 2008 2003 2005 Approve 42 37 39 39 32 49 26 Disapprove 40 43 42 42 51 24 60 DK/NA 17 20 20 20 17 27 14
8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 56% 24% 81% 54% 52% 61% 67% Disapprove 36 71 10 37 43 29 29 DK/NA 8 5 9 8 5 11 3 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 68% 80% 58% 57% 42% 43% 49% Disapprove 26 11 36 38 50 42 42 DK/NA 6 9 6 5 8 15 9
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator?
APPROVE....... High Low May 4 Mar 25 Feb 11 Nov 26 Aug 5 Nov 26 Apr 22 2009 2009 2009 2008 2008 2008 2004 Approve 56 52 56 62 59 62 47 Disapprove 36 33 30 25 29 25 36 DK/NA 8 15 14 13 12 13 17
9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Casey Jr. is handling his job as United States Senator?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 55% 40% 66% 56% 51% 58% 60% Disapprove 21 39 9 20 28 15 18 DK/NA 24 21 24 24 21 27 23 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 63% 48% 51% 47% 49% 62% 60% Disapprove 16 9 30 23 32 19 22 DK/NA 21 43 19 30 19 19 19
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Casey Jr. is handling his job as United States Senator? (*also high 55% on Nov 26, 2008)
APPROVE....... High Low May 4 Mar 25 Feb 11 Nov 26 Aug 5 May 4 Mar 28 2009 2009 2009 2008 2008 2009* 2007 Approve 55 52 54 55 47 55 46 Disapprove 21 23 23 20 25 21 18 DK/NA 24 25 23 26 28 24 35
10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 66% 32% 93% 62% 57% 74% 76% Disapprove 29 61 5 31 38 20 21 DK/NA 5 7 2 7 4 6 2 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 74% 89% 61% 65% 55% 64% 59% Disapprove 22 7 35 30 37 31 35 DK/NA 4 4 4 6 9 4 5
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
May 4 Mar 25 Feb 12 2009 2009 2009 Approve 66 61 63 Disapprove 29 30 22 DK/NA 5 9 15
11. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Pennsylvania today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Very satisfied 6% 3% 10% 1% 5% 6% 5% Smwht satisfied 53 39 62 53 48 57 57 Smwht dissatisfied 27 40 19 27 29 26 23 Very dissatisfied 13 19 7 15 15 11 12 DK/NA 2 1 2 4 3 1 3 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Very satisfied 11% 11% 3% 7% 3% 1% 4% Smwht satisfied 45 55 58 62 44 48 51 Smwht dissatisfied 31 19 21 24 38 39 26 Very dissatisfied 12 8 16 7 15 12 18 DK/NA 1 7 2 1 - 1 1
TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Pennsylvania today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? (*also combined low=46% 10/05/2005)
VERY+SMWHT.... High Low May 4 Mar 25 Feb 11 Nov 26 Aug 5 Jun 5 Nov 26 2009 2009 2009 2008 2008 2002 2008* Very satisfied 6 4 3 3 4 8 3 Smwht satisfied 53 47 46 43 44 60 43 Smwht dissatisfied 27 31 33 34 32 22 34 Very dissatisifed 13 18 17 18 19 8 18 DK/NA 2 2 1 2 1 3 2
12. Looking ahead to the 2010 election for United States Senator, do you feel that Arlen Specter deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Yes/Deserves 49% 16% 75% 44% 44% 53% 61% No/Does Not 41 76 15 44 49 33 32 DK/NA 10 8 9 12 7 13 8 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Yes/Deserves 62% 76% 44% 51% 34% 32% 44% No/Does Not 29 16 42 44 55 50 45 DK/NA 9 9 14 5 11 17 11
TREND: Looking ahead to the 2010 election for United States Senator, do you feelthat Arlen Specter deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
May 4 Mar 25 Feb 11 2009 2009 2009 Yes/Deserves 49 38 40 No/Does not 41 41 43 DK/NA 10 20 17
13. At age 79, do you think Arlen Specter is too old to effectively serve another 6-year term as United States Senator, or not?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Yes 37% 46% 29% 36% 36% 37% 32% No 60 50 69 59 61 59 65 DK/NA 4 4 2 5 4 4 3 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Yes 35% 33% 35% 36% 31% 41% 40% No 59 67 58 62 65 56 55 DK/NA 6 - 8 1 4 2 5 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. NoColl College 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Degree Degree Yes 31% 34% 41% 40% 30% 31% 40% 28% No 67 62 55 56 65 65 57 66 DK/NA 2 4 4 3 4 4 3 6
TREND: At age 79, do you think Arlen Specter is too old to effectively serve another 6-year term as United States Senator, or not?
May 4 Mar 25 2009 2009 Yes 37 41 No 60 54 DK/NA 4 5
14. Were you surprised that Senator Specter switched from the Republican Party to the Democratic Party?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Yes 48% 46% 53% 44% 47% 49% 49% No 49 53 45 53 52 47 51 DK/NA 3 1 2 3 - 4 - Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Yes 45% 49% 48% 47% 57% 51% 46% No 50 44 48 53 42 48 53 DK/NA 5 7 4 - 1 1 1
15. Does Arlen Specter switching from the Republican Party to the Democratic Party make you more likely to vote for him for United States Senator, less likely, or doesn't it make a difference?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds More likely 25% 2% 50% 11% 21% 28% 35% Less likely 28 58 7 29 33 23 20 Doesn't make diff 46 39 43 59 45 47 43 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl More likely 27% 44% 18% 27% 24% 19% 19% Less likely 20 11 29 29 28 34 36 Doesn't make diff 52 43 53 44 47 45 43 DK/NA 1 2 - - 1 2 2
16. Some people say that by switching to the Democratic party Senator Specter is being disloyal to the Republican Party. Do you agree or disagree?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Agree 39% 69% 21% 33% 46% 32% 35% Disagree 57 28 77 58 50 63 61 DK/NA 4 3 2 9 4 5 3 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Agree 28% 15% 47% 41% 42% 52% 42% Disagree 69 80 49 53 54 41 54 DK/NA 3 5 5 6 4 6 3
17. With Arlen Specter switching to the Democratic Party, the Democrats could have enough votes in the Senate to block any filibusters by the Republicans. Do you think that is a good thing or a bad thing?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Good thing 41% 8% 73% 31% 37% 45% 51% Bad thing 49 84 18 56 58 40 36 DK/NA 11 8 9 13 5 15 13 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Good thing 44% 65% 30% 44% 38% 35% 34% Bad thing 41 24 50 49 55 58 56 DK/NA 15 11 19 7 7 7 10
18. Some people say that losing a Republican in the Senate is dangerous because President Obama and the Democrats will now be able to steamroll over the Republicans. Do you agree or disagree?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Agree 52% 80% 35% 49% 59% 46% 47% Disagree 44 17 62 47 38 50 49 DK/NA 4 3 3 4 3 5 4 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Agree 49% 40% 54% 52% 52% 66% 52% Disagree 49 55 42 44 45 29 44 DK/NA 2 5 4 4 2 5 4
19. Despite switching parties, Senator Specter says he will still vote against the Employee Free Choice Act which is legislation that would make it easier for labor organizations to sign up new members. This legislation is favored by labor unions and most Democratic leaders. Does this make you more likely to vote for Arlen Specter for United States Senator, less likely, or doesn't it make a difference?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds More likely 14% 13% 13% 18% 16% 12% 14% Less likely 23 26 22 20 23 23 27 Doesn't make diff 60 59 61 58 58 62 57 DK/NA 3 2 3 5 2 4 2 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl More likely 8% 20% 7% 18% 13% 11% 16% Less likely 26 19 20 22 21 27 24 Doesn't make diff 57 58 71 56 64 61 59 DK/NA 9 3 2 4 2 1 2
20. More than forty years ago Arlen Specter changed from a Democrat to a Republican to run for district attorney of Philadelphia. Do you think that Senator Specter has been a Republican in name only?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Yes 52% 71% 41% 49% 56% 48% 41% No 34 21 43 36 33 35 40 DK/NA 14 9 16 14 11 17 19 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Yes 53% 41% 46% 52% 58% 57% 54% No 32 52 33 37 33 25 29 DK/NA 16 7 21 11 9 18 16
21. How worried are you that you or someone in your family will get swine flu - very worried, somewhat worried, not too worried, or not worried at all?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Very worried 7% 6% 10% 3% 4% 10% 8% Smwht worried 24 23 28 19 17 30 25 Not too worried 37 38 34 44 38 37 38 Not worried at all 31 32 28 35 41 23 29 DK/NA - 1 - - - 1 - Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Very worried 6% 10% 12% 5% 7% 7% 6% Smwht worried 16 16 24 24 32 32 24 Not too worried 44 36 43 38 32 36 33 Not worried at all 33 38 20 32 29 24 37 DK/NA - - - 1 - 1 - AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. NoColl College 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Degree Degree Very worried 7% 6% 9% 11% 2% 5% 8% 5% Smwht worried 19 22 28 27 23 16 26 19 Not too worried 36 41 35 34 41 46 35 41 Not worried at all 39 30 28 28 35 33 30 35 DK/NA - 1 1 - - - - -
22. Do you think the media's reaction to the swine flu has been justified or overblown?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Justified 34% 30% 38% 29% 24% 43% 34% Overblown 63 69 59 65 73 53 63 DK/NA 3 2 3 6 3 4 3 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Justified 36% 31% 38% 30% 42% 35% 32% Overblown 57 65 60 66 58 64 64 DK/NA 6 4 2 5 1 1 3 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. NoColl College 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Degree Degree Justified 21% 35% 41% 39% 29% 24% 36% 28% Overblown 78 63 55 57 68 75 60 69 DK/NA 1 2 4 4 3 1 3 3
23. Do you think the government's reaction to the swine flu has been justified or overblown?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Justified 66% 61% 73% 60% 59% 72% 77% Overblown 29 36 22 31 36 23 16 DK/NA 5 3 6 9 5 6 6 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Justified 67% 66% 68% 66% 68% 67% 61% Overblown 24 31 27 27 27 30 34 DK/NA 9 3 5 7 5 3 5 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. NoColl College 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Degree Degree Justified 63% 66% 66% 66% 70% 67% 64% 69% Overblown 33 29 27 28 26 30 30 25 DK/NA 4 4 7 6 4 3 6 5