Pennsylvania (PA) Poll * May 28, 2009 * Specter Tops Toomey By 9 Pts. - Quinnipiac University

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May 28, 2009 - Specter Tops Toomey By 9 Pts. In Pennsylvania Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; New Democratic Senator Has Big Primary Lead

Word format Former U.S. Rep. Pat Toomey, the likely Republican challenger in the 2010 Pennsylvania Senate race, has gained some ground and now trails newly-converted Democratic Sen. Arlen Specter 46 - 37 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
This compares to a 53 - 33 percent Specter lead in a May 4 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll.
In this latest look at the Specter-Toomey matchup, Republicans back Toomey 73 - 16 percent. Specter leads 73 - 10 percent among Democrats and 43 - 33 percent among independent voters. The Democrat leads 47 - 39 percent among men and 45 - 35 percent among women.
In a Democratic primary, Specter tops U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak 50 - 21 percent.
Toomey tops U.S. Rep. Jim Gerlach 38 - 10 percent in a Republican primary, with 3 percent for anti-abortion activist Peg Luksik.
"Sen. Arlen Specter's numbers have slipped since the controversy that followed his switch to the Democratic Party, but he's still better off than he would have been if he stayed a Republican and faced a tough primary challenge from former Rep. Pat Toomey," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Running as a Democrat, the Senator leads Toomey by 9 points, down from 20 points right after his conversion. But now that he's got President Barack Obama and Gov. Ed Rendell on his side, Specter should be able to hold the edge over the conservative Republican. At this point none of the other names mentioned as candidates in either party is well enough known to make a challenge."
Pennsylvania voters approve 51 - 39 percent, including 74 - 16 percent among Democrats, of the job Specter is doing. This compares to a 56 - 36 percent approval, including 81 - 10 percent among Democrats, May 4.
By a 46 - 39 percent margin, voters have a favorable opinion of Specter. Toomey gets a 27 - 11 percent favorability, but 61 percent don't know enough about him to form an opinion. Sestak, Gerlach and Luksik are little known to voters, as 76 percent or more say they don't know enough about any of them to form an opinion.
Voters split 42 - 43 percent on whether Specter deserves to be reelected, down from 49 - 41 percent May 4. Voters also say 52 - 43 percent that he is not too old to serve another six- year U.S. Senate term, down from 60 - 37 percent.
Specter is "too liberal," 30 percent say, while 9 percent say he is "too conservative" and 45 percent say he is "about right."
Toomey is "too conservative," 15 percent say, while 4 percent say he is "too liberal" and 32 percent say he is "about right."
Obama, Rendell, Casey Approval
Pennsylvania voters approve 62 - 31 percent of the job President Barack Obama is doing and approve 54 - 37 percent of the job Gov. Ed Rendell is doing.
Sen. Bob Casey gets a 56 - 21 percent approval, his highest score ever.
From May 20 - 26, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,191 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points. The survey includes 517 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points and 561 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Arlen Specter and Joe Sestak, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED DEMOCRATS Tot Men Wom Specter 50% 51% 48% Sestak 21 20 21 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 1 DK/NA 27 26 28
2. (If registered Republican) If the 2010 Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Pat Toomey, Jim Gerlach and Peg Luksik, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED REPUBLICANS Tot Men Wom Toomey 38% 47% 30% Gerlach 10 10 10 Luksik 3 4 2 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 1 DK/NA 47 36 56
3. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Arlen Specter the Democrat and Pat Toomey the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Specter 46% 16% 73% 43% 47% 45% 58% Toomey 37 73 10 33 39 35 30 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 2 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 3 4 1 4 1 DK/NA 14 10 13 19 12 15 10 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Specter 41% 75% 45% 54% 46% 39% 31% Toomey 43 11 40 33 38 41 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - 3 - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 8 3 2 1 2 3 2 DK/NA 8 11 13 12 12 17 18
TREND: If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Arlen Specter the Democrat and Pat Toomey the Republican, for whom would you vote?
May 28 May 4 2009 2009 Specter 46 53 Toomey 37 33 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 DK/NA 14 10
4. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Arlen Specter the Democrat and Jim Gerlach the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Specter 45% 12% 75% 43% 46% 45% 58% Gerlach 36 73 9 31 36 35 30 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 3 5 2 4 2 DK/NA 15 13 13 18 15 16 10 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Specter 43% 71% 48% 50% 48% 39% 31% Gerlach 39 14 34 36 38 34 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 2 - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 9 3 4 1 1 3 3 DK/NA 10 12 14 11 13 24 20
5. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Joe Sestak the Democrat and Pat Toomey the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Sestak 37% 5% 68% 32% 37% 38% 46% Toomey 35 72 8 34 40 32 25 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 3 4 2 3 3 DK/NA 23 20 20 28 20 26 25 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Sestak 32% 70% 32% 47% 36% 31% 22% Toomey 40 12 38 31 37 34 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 3 1 - 3 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 8 - 1 1 3 4 3 DK/NA 20 16 29 20 22 31 26
6. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Joe Sestak the Democrat and Jim Gerlach the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Sestak 36% 6% 65% 30% 36% 36% 41% Gerlach 30 61 8 25 31 29 25 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 3 6 3 4 2 DK/NA 30 30 23 38 29 31 32 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Sestak 28% 66% 30% 46% 34% 31% 22% Gerlach 30 10 30 35 31 25 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 1 - 3 1 0 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 8 4 4 1 1 4 3 DK/NA 33 19 34 18 30 38 38
7. Is your opinion of - Arlen Specter favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 46% 18% 70% 46% 47% 45% 53% Unfavorable 39 69 14 42 40 37 32 Hvn't hrd enough 14 11 14 12 11 16 14 REFUSED 2 2 2 1 1 2 1 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 36% 70% 49% 54% 45% 38% 34% Unfavorable 53 13 40 38 36 42 46 Hvn't hrd enough 9 17 11 7 18 18 17 REFUSED 2 - 1 1 1 2 3
TREND: Is your opinion of - Arlen Specter favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
May 28 May 4 Mar 25 Nov 26 Aug 5 2009 2009 2009 2008 2008 Favorable 46 52 45 56 55 Unfavorable 39 34 31 23 26 Hvn't hrd enough 14 12 21 19 16 REFUSED 2 2 3 3 3
8. Is your opinion of - Pat Toomey favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 27% 45% 14% 24% 32% 22% 21% Unfavorable 11 3 17 12 14 8 14 Hvn't hrd enough 61 51 68 63 53 68 65 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 - 2 - Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 29% 17% 33% 24% 18% 26% 33% Unfavorable 11 17 15 12 12 2 9 Hvn't hrd enough 60 66 50 64 69 70 57 REFUSED - - 1 1 1 2 2
TREND: Is your opinion of - Pat Toomey favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
May 28 May 4 Mar 25 2009 2009 2009 Favorable 27 20 14 Unfavorable 11 13 6 Hvn't hrd enough 61 67 78 REFUSED 1 1 2
9. Is your opinion of - Joe Sestak favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 18% 10% 27% 17% 20% 17% 22% Unfavorable 5 7 3 5 7 3 3 Hvn't hrd enough 76 82 70 78 72 80 74 REFUSED - 1 - - - 1 - Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 8% 36% 13% 38% 11% 5% 10% Unfavorable 3 3 6 11 6 - 3 Hvn't hrd enough 89 61 81 50 83 95 87 REFUSED - - - - 1 - 1
10. Is your opinion of - Jim Gerlach favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 15% 22% 11% 15% 19% 11% 15% Unfavorable 5 2 8 7 8 4 4 Hvn't hrd enough 79 76 81 78 73 84 81 REFUSED 1 - 1 - - 1 - Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 6% 10% 11% 28% 11% 5% 19% Unfavorable 6 9 6 9 2 3 2 Hvn't hrd enough 88 80 83 62 87 92 79 REFUSED - - - 1 1 1 1
11. Is your opinion of - Peg Luksik favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 6% 7% 5% 8% 6% 6% 4% Unfavorable 4 4 4 3 6 2 6 Hvn't hrd enough 89 89 89 89 87 91 89 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 - 1 1 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 10% 1% 1% 6% 1% 11% 9% Unfavorable 5 3 2 6 6 3 2 Hvn't hrd enough 85 96 96 87 92 84 88 REFUSED - - 1 2 1 2 -
12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling his job as Governor?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 54% 35% 73% 52% 54% 55% 61% Disapprove 37 57 19 39 40 34 33 DK/NA 9 8 8 9 6 11 6 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 49% 77% 55% 69% 56% 35% 41% Disapprove 43 11 38 24 40 57 47 DK/NA 7 12 7 8 4 8 11
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling his job as Governor? (*Also 46% on 10/5/2005, 4/22/2004, 3/18/2004 and 12/16/2003)
APPROVE...... High Low May 28 May 4 Mar 25 Feb 11 Nov 26 Feb 7 Apr 5 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 2007 2006* Approve 54 53 50 47 55 61 46 Disapprove 37 38 38 38 34 30 37 DK/NA 9 9 12 15 12 9 17
13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 42% 35% 47% 44% 38% 45% 43% Disapprove 40 47 34 42 46 35 40 DK/NA 18 18 19 14 16 20 17 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 38% 43% 46% 46% 46% 34% 39% Disapprove 50 35 38 29 37 48 46 DK/NA 13 22 16 25 17 18 15
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
APPROVE..... High Low May 28 May 4 Mar 25 Feb 11 Nov 26 Apr 10 Oct 5 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 2003 2005 Approve 42 42 37 39 39 49 26 Disapprove 40 40 43 42 42 24 60 DK/NA 18 17 20 20 20 27 14
14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 51% 23% 74% 49% 49% 53% 61% Disapprove 39 70 16 41 43 37 33 DK/NA 9 7 11 10 8 10 6 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 39% 77% 54% 53% 54% 44% 43% Disapprove 53 12 41 39 40 42 46 DK/NA 7 11 4 8 5 13 12
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator?
APPROVE....... High Low May 28 May 4 Mar 25 Feb 11 Nov 26 Nov 26 Apr 22 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 2008 2004 Approve 51 56 52 56 62 62 47 Disapprove 39 36 33 30 25 25 36 DK/NA 9 8 15 14 13 13 17
15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Casey Jr. is handling his job as United States Senator?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 56% 41% 68% 59% 56% 57% 66% Disapprove 21 34 12 20 23 19 17 DK/NA 23 25 20 20 22 24 17 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 58% 55% 56% 58% 57% 53% 55% Disapprove 25 15 29 18 18 24 20 DK/NA 17 30 15 23 25 23 24
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Casey Jr. is handling his job as United States Senator?
APPROVE....... High Low May 28 May 4 Mar 25 Feb 11 Nov 26 May 28 Mar 28 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 2009 2007 Approve 56 55 52 54 55 56 46 Disapprove 21 21 23 23 20 21 18 DK/NA 23 24 25 23 26 23 35
16. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 62% 27% 91% 63% 60% 64% 66% Disapprove 31 62 6 29 33 29 30 DK/NA 7 11 3 8 7 6 4 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 53% 94% 55% 67% 67% 51% 54% Disapprove 38 4 35 25 29 45 38 DK/NA 9 2 10 7 3 5 8
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
May 28 May 4 Mar 25 Feb 12 2009 2009 2009 2009 Approve 62 66 61 63 Disapprove 31 29 30 22 DK/NA 7 5 9 15
17. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Pennsylvania today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Very satisfied 6% 3% 9% 5% 7% 5% 8% Smwht satisfied 50 36 61 50 46 53 50 Smwht dissatisfied 29 42 20 28 31 28 21 Very dissatisfied 13 18 8 16 15 12 19 DK/NA 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Very satisfied 8% 10% 5% 7% 8% 5% 2% Smwht satisfied 45 56 44 61 44 37 50 Smwht dissatisfied 31 20 26 27 31 40 33 Very dissatisfied 16 10 24 4 16 17 14 DK/NA - 4 2 2 1 1 1
TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Pennsylvania today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? (*also combined low=46% 10/05/2005)
VERY+SMWHT.... High Low May 28 May 4 Mar 25 Feb 11 Nov 26 Jun 5 Nov 26 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 2002 2008* Very satisfied 6 6 4 3 3 8 3 Smwht satisfied 50 53 47 46 43 60 43 Smwht dissatisfied 29 27 31 33 34 22 34 Very dissatisfied 13 13 18 17 18 8 18 DK/NA 2 2 2 1 2 3 2
18. Looking ahead to the 2010 election for United States Senator, do you feel that Arlen Specter deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Yes/Deserves 42% 18% 64% 38% 42% 42% 54% No/Does not 43 73 18 46 45 41 36 DK/NA 15 10 18 16 12 18 10 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Yes/Deserves 38% 70% 41% 43% 40% 33% 33% No/Does not 51 14 45 42 43 45 52 DK/NA 11 16 14 15 16 22 14
TREND: Looking ahead to the 2010 election for United States Senator, do you feel that Arlen Specter deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
May 28 May 4 Mar 25 Feb 11 2009 2009 2009 2009 Yes/Deserves 42 49 38 40 No/Does not 43 41 41 43 DK/NA 15 10 20 17
19. At age 79, do you think Arlen Specter is too old to effectively serve another 6-year term as United States Senator, or not?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Yes 43% 51% 36% 46% 43% 43% 46% No 52 45 59 48 53 50 49 DK/NA 5 4 5 6 4 7 4 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Yes 41% 32% 42% 42% 46% 43% 49% No 57 60 52 53 49 47 47 DK/NA 2 8 7 5 6 10 3
TREND: At age 79, do you think Arlen Specter is too old to effectively serve another 6-year term as United States Senator, or not?
May 28 May 4 Mar 25 2009 2009 2009 Yes 43 37 41 No 52 60 54 DK/NA 5 4 5
20. Do you think Arlen Specter is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Too liberal 30% 59% 8% 25% 33% 27% 24% Too conservative 9 5 12 9 6 11 10 About right 45 19 66 45 46 44 53 DK/NA 17 16 14 20 15 19 14 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Too liberal 34% 6% 32% 28% 29% 38% 36% Too conservative 9 12 8 10 7 5 8 About right 42 66 45 49 40 34 37 DK/NA 15 16 14 13 24 23 18
TREND: Do you think Arlen Specter is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
May 28 Jun 24 2009 2004 Too liberal 30 22 Too conservative 9 17 About right 45 45 DK/NA 17 16
21. Do you think Pat Toomey is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Too liberal 4% 4% 5% 3% 5% 3% 5% Too conservative 15 5 22 16 20 10 18 About right 32 53 19 27 35 30 24 DK/NA 49 38 54 54 40 57 52 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Too liberal 3% 7% 5% 4% 4% 2% 3% Too conservative 15 18 14 21 19 6 11 About right 32 21 37 31 27 31 40 DK/NA 51 54 45 44 50 62 47