Pennsylvania (PA) Poll * July 21, 2009 * Pennsylvania Gov's Approval Dr - Quinnipiac University

Home> Institutes and Centers> Quinnipiac University Polling Institute> Pennsylvania (PA)> Release Detail

July 21, 2009 - Pennsylvania Gov's Approval Drops To Lowest Ever, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Rendell Gets More Blame For Budget Stalemate

Word format Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell's job approval rating has shrunk to its lowest level ever, 39 - 53 percent negative, and voters see him as most responsible for the state's budget mess. Voters also reject 63 - 33 percent the Governor's call to raise the state income tax temporarily to balance the budget, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
A total of 90 percent of Pennsylvania voters think the inability of the Governor and State Legislature to come up with a budget by the June 30 deadline is a "very serious" or "somewhat serious" problem, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.
State Attorney General Tom Corbett has the best name recognition among Republican contenders in the 2010 Governor's race, while there is no clear leader in the Democratic field.
Rendell is most to blame for the budget stalemate, 30 percent of voters say, while 17 percent blame the Republicans in the Legislature; 11 percent blame the Democrats and 28 percent blame everyone equally. Pennsylvania voters disapprove 57 - 27 percent of the job the State Legislature is doing, close to the all time worst score of 60 - 26 percent October 5, 2005.
"The hassle in Harrisburg over the state budget certainly has caught the public's attention and voters are angry about it," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Up to now we've called Gov. Ed Rendell 'Teflon Ed,' but the budget crisis clearly has put some scratches on him and the state economic crisis is sticking to the Governor. Only 28 percent of voters approve of his handling of the state budget and only 33 percent approve of his handling of the economy."
"Voters clearly don't want their taxes raised to solve the budget mess," Brown added. "Given a choice between raising taxes to maintain the level of services, or cutting spending and leaving taxes the same, 55 percent favor spending cuts and 35 percent say raise taxes."
The 63 - 33 percent opposition to Rendell's proposal to hike the state income tax from 3.07 percent to 3.57 percent for three years gets a 47 - 48 percent split from Democrats, with 81 - 17 percent opposition from Republicans and 58 - 37 opposition from independent voters. If taxes must be raised, voters say 62 - 24 percent raise the sales tax, not the income levy.
Asked if they would be willing to pay more taxes to protect certain specific state spending, a majority said they would in order to protect healthcare and public schools from cuts, but not to stave off an up to $1, 280 jump in state college tuition, or to avoid layoff of state workers.
A total of 57 percent of Pennsylvania voters are "somewhat dissatisfied" or "very dissatisfied" with the way things are going in the state today, the highest dissatisfaction rate ever.
In the race to succeed Rendell, who is not able to seek a third term as Governor, Corbett leads the Republican field with 38 percent while U.S. Rep. Jim Gerlach gets 15 percent and former U.S. Attorney Pat Meehan gets 9 percent.
Republicans give Corbett a 47 - 3 percent favorability with 48 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion. For Gerlach, 74 percent of Republicans don't know enough about him to form an opinion. Meehan's "don't know enough" is at 82 percent.
"Corbett begins the race ahead and with a sizeable edge," said Brown.
The three Democratic candidates, Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato, State Auditor Jack Wagner and businessman Tom Knox, are statistically even among Democrats. Onorato and Wagner each get 16 percent, with Knox at 13 percent and 54 percent undecided. The "don't know enough" factor among Democrats ranges from 69 percent to 82 percent.
"At this point there is no leader in the Democratic race for Governor," said Brown.
From July 14 - 19, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,173 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. The survey includes 511 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points and 512 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
2. (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for governor were being held today and the candidates were Dan Onorato, Jack Wagner, and Tom Knox, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED DEMS.. Tot Men Wom Onorato 16% 17% 15% Wagner 16 24 11 Knox 13 10 14 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 DK/NA 54 47 59
4. (If registered Republican) If the 2010 Republican primary for governor were being held today and the candidates were Jim Gerlach, Tom Corbett, and Pat Meehan, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED REPS.. Tot Men Wom Gerlach 15% 16% 13% Corbett 38 44 31 Meehan 9 10 8 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 37 29 48
9. If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today would you vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Republican 38% 84% 5% 32% 47% 30% 35% Democrat 37 1 80 23 31 44 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 - - - 1 1 DK/NA 24 14 15 44 21 26 21 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Republican 33% 23% 43% 34% 39% 39% 47% Democrat 42 54 31 39 36 41 28 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - 2 - - - DK/NA 24 23 24 24 25 19 25
13. Is your opinion of - Jim Gerlach favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 16% 22% 11% 15% 18% 14% 13% Unfavorable 6 3 8 6 8 4 4 Hvn't hrd enough 78 74 81 78 73 82 83 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 1 - - Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 5% 9% 11% 33% 8% 6% 18% Unfavorable 1 9 5 10 6 5 4 Hvn't hrd enough 93 83 83 56 85 90 77 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 2 - 1
TREND: Is your opinion of - Jim Gerlach favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Jul 21 May 28 2009 2009 Favorable 16 15 Unfavorable 6 5 Hvn't hrd enough 78 79 REFUSED 1 1
15. Is your opinion of - Dan Onorato favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 16% 9% 22% 13% 15% 16% 23% Unfavorable 6 8 6 4 8 4 7 Hvn't hrd enough 78 82 71 82 76 80 70 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 53% 11% 2% 1% 13% 46% 7% Unfavorable 29 1 - - 6 13 2 Hvn't hrd enough 18 88 97 98 81 40 90 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 - 1 1
16. Is your opinion of - Jack Wagner favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 18% 12% 25% 17% 21% 16% 23% Unfavorable 4 4 5 4 5 4 4 Hvn't hrd enough 76 81 69 78 72 80 73 REFUSED 1 3 - 1 2 1 - Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 53% 5% 14% 5% 20% 32% 15% Unfavorable 9 6 2 2 2 7 4 Hvn't hrd enough 38 89 84 91 77 62 78 REFUSED - - - 2 1 - 3
17. Is your opinion of - Tom Knox favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 10% 8% 13% 9% 11% 9% 7% Unfavorable 4 3 5 4 5 4 1 Hvn't hrd enough 85 88 82 85 83 87 91 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 - Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 6% 26% 6% 12% 3% 10% 6% Unfavorable - 18 1 5 3 1 3 Hvn't hrd enough 94 56 93 81 94 88 90 REFUSED 1 - - 2 - 2 1
18. Is your opinion of - Tom Corbett favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 38% 47% 31% 36% 47% 29% 44% Unfavorable 6 3 10 6 6 7 4 Hvn't hrd enough 55 48 59 57 46 63 52 REFUSED 1 2 - - 1 1 1 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 52% 24% 34% 26% 43% 46% 44% Unfavorable 9 9 2 7 3 9 5 Hvn't hrd enough 39 67 63 66 52 45 49 REFUSED - - 1 - 2 - 3
19. Is your opinion of - Pat Meehan favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 12% 15% 9% 13% 15% 9% 10% Unfavorable 3 2 3 6 4 3 1 Hvn't hrd enough 84 82 87 81 80 88 89 REFUSED 1 2 - 1 1 1 - Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 4% 15% 7% 24% 11% 7% 7% Unfavorable 2 15 - 4 - 1 2 Hvn't hrd enough 93 69 93 71 89 92 89 REFUSED 1 - - 1 - - 3
20. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling his job as Governor?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 39% 20% 58% 37% 38% 40% 31% Disapprove 53 74 34 55 58 49 58 DK/NA 8 6 8 9 4 11 11 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 32% 62% 30% 59% 29% 23% 29% Disapprove 61 28 61 30 64 68 67 DK/NA 8 10 9 11 6 8 5
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling his job as Governor?
APPROVE....... DIS... High Low High Jul 21 May 28 May 4 Mar 25 Feb 7 Jul 21 Jul 21 2009 2009 2009 2009 2007 2009 2009 Approve 39 54 53 50 61 39 39 Disapprove 53 37 38 38 30 53 53 DK/NA 8 9 9 12 9 8 8
21. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 27% 26% 30% 27% 23% 30% 28% Disapprove 57 62 55 55 63 52 57 DK/NA 15 13 15 18 13 17 15 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 22% 30% 24% 37% 36% 19% 22% Disapprove 64 53 63 44 53 68 62 DK/NA 15 17 13 19 11 13 16
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
APPROVE..... High Low Jul 21 May 28 May 4 Mar 25 Feb 11 Apr 10 Oct 5 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2003 2005 Approve 27 42 42 37 39 49 26 Disapprove 57 40 40 43 42 24 60 DK/NA 15 18 17 20 20 27 14
24. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Tom Corbett is handling his job as State Attorney General?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 55% 61% 50% 56% 65% 46% 56% Disapprove 8 5 10 8 7 9 9 DK/NA 37 35 39 36 27 45 35 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 65% 37% 58% 45% 60% 60% 62% Disapprove 7 10 7 10 9 12 5 DK/NA 28 53 36 45 31 28 33
27. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Pennsylvania today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Very satisfied 3% 2% 5% 2% 2% 4% 3% Smwht satisfied 38 27 48 39 38 38 32 Smwht dissatisfied 35 39 33 35 35 36 39 Very dissatisfied 22 32 13 23 24 21 26 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 - 2 - Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Very satisfied 8% - 1% 5% 1% 4% 2% Smwht satisfied 32 51 41 48 29 28 34 Smwht dissatisfied 36 37 33 34 36 36 36 Very dissatisfied 24 9 25 11 34 31 27 DK/NA 1 2 - 2 - 1 1
TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Pennsylvania today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
VERY+SMWHT.... High Low Jul 21 May 28 May 4 Mar 25 Feb 11 Jun 5 Jul 21 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2002 2009 Very satisfied 3 6 6 4 3 8 3 Smwht satisfied 38 50 53 47 46 60 38 Smwht dissatisfied 35 29 27 31 33 22 35 Very dissatisfied 22 13 13 18 17 8 22 DK/NA 1 2 2 2 1 3 1
31. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling the economy?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 33% 15% 49% 32% 31% 35% 29% Disapprove 60 78 43 62 65 55 66 DK/NA 7 7 7 6 4 9 5 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 29% 65% 28% 48% 21% 16% 22% Disapprove 66 30 67 40 74 80 71 DK/NA 5 5 5 12 6 4 7
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling the economy?
Jul 21 Mar 25 Feb 12 2009 2009 2009 Approve 33 44 42 Disapprove 60 43 47 DK/NA 7 14 11
33. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling the state budget?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 28% 14% 41% 27% 28% 29% 23% Disapprove 64 79 51 63 68 61 69 DK/NA 8 7 7 10 5 11 8 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 22% 59% 19% 43% 23% 14% 17% Disapprove 74 36 78 40 73 82 75 DK/NA 4 5 3 17 3 4 8
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling the state budget?
APPROVE....... High Low Jul 21 Feb 11 Aug 5 Aug 22 Apr 5 Jul 13 Jul 21 2009 2009 2008 2007 2006 2004 2009 Approve 28 42 40 43 35 45 28 Disapprove 64 43 47 44 45 38 64 DK/NA 8 15 13 12 19 17 8
34. Pennsylvania has not had a budget since July first, the start of the fiscal year. Do you think that the state's failure to pass a budget is a very serious problem, a somewhat serious problem, a not too serious problem or not a problem at all?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Very serious 62% 62% 61% 67% 62% 63% 73% Smwht serious 28 28 32 23 26 30 24 Not too serious 5 6 4 7 9 3 4 Not a problem at all 2 3 2 1 3 2 - DK/NA 2 1 2 2 1 2 - Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Very serious 66% 61% 66% 43% 64% 75% 70% Smwht serious 24 31 26 44 21 23 22 Not too serious 5 5 3 7 12 2 4 Not a problem at all 4 - 3 3 2 - 2 DK/NA 1 3 2 3 - - 1
35. Who do you think is most to blame for the state's failure to pass a budget - Governor Rendell, Republicans in the legislature or Democrats in the legislature?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Rendell 30% 39% 24% 28% 36% 26% 36% Reps in legislature 17 4 34 12 16 19 14 Dems in legislature 11 21 6 8 13 10 11 EQUAL BLAME(VOL) 28 26 24 37 27 29 24 DK/NA 13 11 12 15 8 17 15 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Rendell 39% 13% 32% 21% 34% 40% 36% Reps in legislature 22 33 14 20 11 10 13 Dems in legislature 13 12 13 11 6 9 12 EQUAL BLAME(VOL) 19 23 30 28 40 31 28 DK/NA 7 19 11 19 9 11 11
36. To balance the state budget next year, if you had to choose, which would you prefer - raising taxes to keep state services at their current level or cutting state services to keep taxes at their current level?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Raising taxes 35% 16% 53% 34% 30% 38% 41% Cutting services 55 75 38 54 62 49 49 DK/NA 10 9 9 13 8 12 10 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Raising taxes 38% 49% 35% 35% 32% 29% 29% Cutting services 55 46 58 53 61 58 57 DK/NA 7 5 7 12 7 13 14
37. To balance the state budget, if you had to choose, would you prefer raising - the state sales tax or the state income tax?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Sales tax 62% 64% 62% 60% 60% 64% 72% Income tax 24 19 30 23 25 24 18 DK/NA 13 17 8 16 15 12 10 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Sales tax 56% 72% 71% 61% 57% 57% 63% Income tax 23 24 18 24 29 26 26 DK/NA 21 5 12 15 14 17 12
38. Governor Rendell has proposed temporarily raising the state income tax from 3.07 to 3.57 percent. Do you support or oppose this proposal?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Support 33% 17% 47% 37% 32% 34% 35% Oppose 63 81 48 58 64 61 62 DK/NA 4 2 5 5 3 5 3 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Support 35% 51% 26% 42% 24% 29% 25% Oppose 63 46 73 50 70 68 71 DK/NA 2 3 1 8 6 4 4
39. Would you be willing or unwilling to pay more in state taxes to avoid state employees from losing their jobs?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Willing 44% 28% 59% 44% 40% 46% 55% Unwilling 51 66 36 50 56 46 41 DK/NA 6 6 5 6 4 7 4 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Willing 42% 53% 41% 43% 33% 49% 43% Unwilling 55 46 53 49 64 45 50 DK/NA 4 1 6 8 3 6 8
40. Would you be willing or unwilling to pay more in state taxes to avoid cuts in state spending on such things as healthcare and public schools?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Willing 53% 34% 73% 54% 47% 59% 59% Unwilling 43 60 25 43 49 37 37 DK/NA 4 5 3 3 4 4 4 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Willing 57% 69% 42% 55% 43% 53% 52% Unwilling 37 31 53 41 54 42 44 DK/NA 5 - 5 4 3 6 4
41. Would you be willing or unwilling to pay more in state taxes to avoid raising tuition at state public colleges by up to $1,280 a year?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Willing 28% 15% 38% 30% 27% 30% 25% Unwilling 65 78 57 62 69 63 71 DK/NA 6 7 5 8 5 8 4 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Willing 28% 45% 21% 30% 25% 22% 27% Unwilling 67 55 72 60 69 68 69 DK/NA 5 - 7 9 6 10 5