Pennsylvania (PA) Poll * July 22, 2009 * Toomey Ties Specter In Pennsyl - Quinnipiac University

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July 22, 2009 - Toomey Ties Specter In Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; More Say New Democrat Does Not Deserve Another Term

Word format Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter's 2010 reelection lead over Republican challenger Pat Toomey has shrunk to a tie with 45 percent for Specter and 44 percent for Toomey, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. And voters say 49 - 40 percent that Sen. Specter does not deserve reelection.
President Barack Obama gets a 56 - 37 percent job approval, compared to 62 - 31 percent in a May 28 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. By a bare 50 - 43 percent majority, voters approve of the President's handling of the economy.
Specter, first elected to the Senate as a Republican in 1980 but who switched to the Democratic Party earlier this year, holds a commanding 55 - 23 percent lead over U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak in the race for the Democratic nomination. On the Republican side Toomey buries Peg Luksik 47 - 6 percent.
On May 4, Specter led Toomey 53 - 33 percent in a trial heat; his favorable unfavorable ratio among Pennsylvania voters was 52 - 34 percent and voters said 49 - 41 percent he deserved reelection. In a May 28 Quinnipiac University poll, Specter led Toomey 46 - 37 percent.
"Sen. Arlen Specter's 20-point lead over former Congressman Pat Toomey less than three months ago has virtually vanished," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Voters see Sen. Specter much less favorably than they once did and are net negative about giving him a sixth term in the U.S. Senate. Independent voters have shifted narrowly to Toomey 46 - 42 percent and say 53 - 35 percent that Specter does not deserve reelection."
Pennsylvania voters split 47 - 46 percent in their job approval for Specter, his highest disapproval ever and his lowest approval since a 47 - 36 percent score in an April 22, 2004, Quinnipiac University poll, when Specter faced Toomey in a Republican primary battle.
Voters also split 45 - 44 percent, the tightest margin ever, on whether they have a favorable opinion of Specter.
In other trial matchups Specter would defeat Luksik 47 - 40 percent, while Toomey would edge Sestak 39 - 35 percent. Sestak would best Luksik 39 - 30 percent.
"The fact that Specter would defeat Luksik by a relatively small margin is much more a comment on his potential weaknesses than her potential strength, since 82 percent of voters don't know enough about her to have an opinion," Brown said.
"Even though Specter has been a Democrat for only a short time, his lead is built upon the traditional Democratic gender gap. He leads Toomey 50 - 37 percent among women, but trails 52 - 39 percent with men. Among traditional Democratic union-members, Toomey leads 43 - 40 percent. Toomey has an opportunity to define himself for Pennsylvania voters: while 9 percent don't have an opinion about Specter, 56 percent don't know enough about Toomey to rate him."
President Obama's job rating in Pennsylvania is the lowest of his presidency, but he still carries a healthy 52 - 40 percent approval rating among politically key independent voters.
"As has been the case for some time, Pennsylvanians' views about the President - first George W. Bush and now Obama - are much more closely aligned with their eastern neighbors in New Jersey than their western ones in Ohio," Brown said. "The latest Quinnipiac University poll in New Jersey last week showed the President with a 61 - 33 percent approval rating, while in Ohio, the July 7 Quinnipiac University poll found his approval rating had dropped 13 points in two months to 49 - 44 percent among registered voters."
Sen. Bob Casey has a 53 - 25 percent job approval rating.
From July 14 - 19, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,173 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. The survey includes 511 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points and 512 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Arlen Specter and Joe Sestak, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED DEMS.. Tot Men Wom Specter 55% 54% 56% Sestak 23 26 21 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 2 DK/NA 19 18 20
TREND:(If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Arlen Specter and Joe Sestak, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED DEMS Jul 22 May 28 2009 2009 Specter 55 50 Sestak 23 21 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 DK/NA 19 27
3. (If registered Republican) If the 2010 Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Pat Toomey and Peg Luksik, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED REPS.. Tot Men Wom Toomey 47% 57% 34% Luksik 6 4 7 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 2 DK/NA 45 35 56
TREND:(If registered Republican) If the 2010 Republican primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Pat Toomey and Peg Luksik, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED REPS Jul 22 May 28 2009 2009 Toomey 47 38 Luksik 6 3 Gerlach na 10 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 DK/NA 45 47
5. If the 2010 election for United States Senator being held today and the candidates were Arlen Specter the Democrat and Pat Toomey the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Specter 45% 11% 79% 42% 39% 50% 40% Toomey 44 82 11 46 52 37 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - 1 - - - 1 DK/NA 10 7 9 12 7 13 15 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Specter 57% 58% 40% 50% 32% 43% 36% Toomey 37 31 49 41 57 43 49 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - - - - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - 1 - 2 0 DK/NA 4 10 10 7 11 12 14
TREND: If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Arlen Specter the Democrat and Pat Toomey the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Jul 22 May 28 May 4 2009 2009 2009 Specter 45 46 53 Toomey 44 37 33 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 3 1 DK/NA 10 14 10
6. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Joe Sestak the Democrat and Pat Toomey the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Sestak 35% 7% 67% 28% 32% 38% 38% Toomey 39 76 9 41 49 30 34 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 2 - 0 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 - 1 1 2 DK/NA 23 16 23 30 16 30 26 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Sestak 35% 52% 29% 48% 30% 39% 21% Toomey 39 28 47 34 40 36 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - - 1 - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 - - 1 2 2 DK/NA 24 18 24 18 28 23 28
TREND: If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Joe Sestak the Democrat and Pat Toomey the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Jul 22 May 28 2009 2009 Sestak 35 37 Toomey 39 35 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 3 DK/NA 23 23
7. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Arlen Specter the Democrat and Peg Luksik the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Specter 47% 12% 80% 43% 41% 52% 44% Luksik 40 75 10 42 48 33 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 - 1 1 2 DK/NA 12 11 9 15 10 14 14 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Specter 51% 63% 43% 52% 34% 43% 40% Luksik 36 29 44 35 53 43 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - - - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 1 2 - 2 1 DK/NA 10 8 13 10 14 12 16
8. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Joe Sestak the Democrat and Peg Luksik the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Sestak 39% 9% 72% 33% 38% 40% 38% Luksik 30 62 5 30 35 26 30 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 DK/NA 29 27 22 35 26 31 30 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Sestak 39% 57% 35% 51% 37% 39% 24% Luksik 30 25 31 26 28 30 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - - - 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 1 2 - 1 1 DK/NA 29 16 32 22 34 29 37
10. Is your opinion of - Arlen Specter favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 45% 17% 73% 41% 40% 48% 44% Unfavorable 44 75 16 46 53 36 44 Hvn't hrd enough 9 7 9 12 5 13 8 REFUSED 2 2 2 1 2 3 3 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 54% 56% 39% 49% 29% 43% 40% Unfavorable 40 29 46 43 54 53 46 Hvn't hrd enough 6 13 10 6 13 4 12 REFUSED - 2 5 3 4 - 2
TREND: Is your opinion of - Arlen Specter favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Jul 22 May 28 May 4 Mar 25 Nov 26 Aug 5 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 2008 Favorable 45 46 52 45 56 55 Unfavorable 44 39 34 31 23 26 Hvn't hrd enough 9 14 12 21 19 16 REFUSED 2 2 2 3 3 3
11. Is your opinion of - Pat Toomey favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 34% 60% 14% 31% 43% 26% 30% Unfavorable 10 2 18 9 11 10 10 Hvn't hrd enough 56 38 67 60 46 64 60 REFUSED 1 1 1 - - 1 - Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 39% 16% 51% 33% 35% 27% 35% Unfavorable 11 14 9 15 4 6 9 Hvn't hrd enough 51 69 40 52 58 67 56 REFUSED - 1 - - 3 - 1
TREND: Is your opinion of - Pat Toomey favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Jul 22 May 28 May 4 Mar 25 2009 2009 2009 2009 Favorable 34 27 20 14 Unfavorable 10 11 13 6 Hvn't hrd enough 56 61 67 78 REFUSED 1 1 1 2
12. Is your opinion of - Joe Sestak favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 23% 13% 30% 26% 25% 21% 23% Unfavorable 7 9 3 11 9 5 6 Hvn't hrd enough 69 76 67 62 65 73 71 REFUSED 1 2 - 1 1 1 - Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 10% 27% 18% 46% 14% 25% 11% Unfavorable 5 15 6 11 5 6 3 Hvn't hrd enough 83 58 75 42 79 69 86 REFUSED 2 - 2 1 2 - 1
TREND: Is your opinion of - Joe Sestak favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Jul 22 May 28 2009 2009 Favorable 23 18 Unfavorable 7 5 Hvn't hrd enough 69 76 REFUSED 1 -
14. Is your opinion of - Peg Luksik favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 13% 20% 5% 16% 15% 11% 12% Unfavorable 5 2 6 6 6 3 5 Hvn't hrd enough 82 77 88 77 77 85 83 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1 - - Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 17% 14% 13% 6% 16% 15% 14% Unfavorable 4 5 2 3 9 8 4 Hvn't hrd enough 78 81 84 88 74 76 81 REFUSED 1 - - 2 1 - -
TREND: Is your opinion of - Peg Luksik favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
Jul 22 May 28 2009 2009 Favorable 13 6 Unfavorable 5 4 Hvn't hrd enough 82 89 REFUSED 1 1
22. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 47% 18% 75% 46% 42% 52% 43% Disapprove 46 76 17 47 55 38 44 DK/NA 7 6 8 7 3 11 13 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 57% 65% 45% 47% 38% 41% 41% Disapprove 38 32 45 43 56 53 51 DK/NA 4 4 9 10 6 6 8
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as United States Senator?
APPROVE....... High Low Jul 22 May 28 May 4 Mar 25 Feb 11 Nov 26 Jul 22 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 2009 Approve 47 51 56 52 56 62 47 Disapprove 46 39 36 33 30 25 46 DK/NA 7 9 8 15 14 13 7
23. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Casey Jr. is handling his job as United States Senator?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 53% 33% 74% 52% 49% 57% 55% Disapprove 25 41 10 26 32 20 27 DK/NA 21 27 16 22 19 24 19 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 55% 58% 46% 49% 55% 60% 53% Disapprove 28 22 36 25 24 19 24 DK/NA 16 20 17 26 22 21 23
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Casey Jr. is handling his job as United States Senator?
APPROVE....... High Low Jul 22 May 28 May 4 Mar 25 Feb 11 May 28 Mar 28 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2007 Approve 53 56 55 52 54 56 46 Disapprove 25 21 21 23 23 21 18 DK/NA 21 23 24 25 23 23 35
25. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 56% 23% 89% 52% 51% 62% 59% Disapprove 37 70 8 40 43 31 32 DK/NA 7 8 4 8 6 7 9 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 59% 82% 47% 64% 46% 46% 50% Disapprove 36 11 48 32 47 39 44 DK/NA 4 7 5 4 7 14 6
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
Jul 22 May 28 May 4 Mar 25 Feb 12 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Approve 56 62 66 61 63 Disapprove 37 31 29 30 22 DK/NA 7 7 5 9 15
26. Would you say that Barack Obama is doing a better job as president than you expected, a worse job, or about what you expected?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Better 16% 7% 27% 12% 13% 19% 12% Worse 19 32 5 23 23 15 19 About expected 61 57 65 62 61 62 63 DK/NA 4 4 3 3 3 4 6 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Better 12% 25% 12% 16% 12% 17% 17% Worse 19 8 26 16 23 21 21 About expected 66 64 57 64 63 56 59 DK/NA 2 3 4 4 2 5 3
28. Looking ahead to the 2010 election for United States Senator, do you feel that Arlen Specter deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Yes/Deserves 40% 15% 66% 35% 36% 44% 38% No/Does Not 49 78 23 53 58 42 50 DK/NA 11 7 11 12 6 14 12 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Yes/Deserves 54% 53% 41% 38% 25% 36% 38% No/Does Not 40 35 50 48 63 56 53 DK/NA 6 12 9 14 12 8 9
TREND: Looking ahead to the 2010 election for United States Senator, do you feel that Arlen Specter deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
Jul 22 May 28 May 4 Mar 25 Feb 11 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Yes/Deserves 40 42 49 38 40 No/Does not 49 43 41 41 43 DK/NA 11 15 10 20 17
29. Do you think Arlen Specter is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Too liberal 31% 60% 7% 31% 41% 22% 29% Too conservative 8 4 14 6 8 8 9 About right 46 22 70 42 39 52 42 DK/NA 16 15 10 21 12 18 20 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Too liberal 31% 16% 34% 28% 38% 37% 32% Too conservative 4 18 7 10 6 9 5 About right 52 53 44 51 36 42 42 DK/NA 13 12 16 12 19 12 21
TREND: Do you think Arlen Specter is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
Jul 22 May 28 Jun 24 2009 2009 2004 Too liberal 31 30 22 Too conservative 8 9 17 About right 46 45 45 DK/NA 16 17 16
30. Do you think Pat Toomey is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Too liberal 4% 4% 3% 6% 6% 2% 3% Too conservative 10 5 15 9 11 9 8 About right 38 56 25 36 44 32 38 DK/NA 48 36 57 50 39 56 50 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Too liberal 6% 8% 2% 0% 3% 3% 5% Too conservative 12 16 8 13 4 7 8 About right 39 31 48 33 46 37 38 DK/NA 42 45 42 54 47 54 49
TREND: Do you think Pat Toomey is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
Jul 22 May 28 2009 2009 Too liberal 4 4 Too conservative 10 15 About right 38 32 DK/NA 48 49
32. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the economy?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 50% 15% 81% 46% 42% 56% 51% Disapprove 43 78 13 48 51 37 42 DK/NA 7 7 5 7 7 7 7 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 53% 74% 44% 56% 36% 43% 42% Disapprove 37 22 50 39 54 51 50 DK/NA 10 5 6 5 9 6 8
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the economy?
Jul 22 Mar 25 Feb 12 2009 2009 2009 Approve 50 56 59 Disapprove 43 36 26 DK/NA 7 8 16