Pennsylvania (PA) Poll * September 30, 2009 * Pennsylvania's Rendell Gets No - Quinnipiac University

Home> Institutes and Centers> Quinnipiac University Polling Institute> Pennsylvania (PA)> Release Detail

September 30, 2009 - Pennsylvania's Rendell Gets No Bounce From Budget, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Corbett Is Only 2010 Contender With Name Recognition

Word format Despite reaching agreement with the Legislature on a state budget, Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell's job approval rating remains decidedly negative, 42 - 51 percent, a slight improvement from his record low of 39 - 53 percent recorded July 21, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Only 26 percent of voters approve of his handling of the state budget, while 53 percent say he has been too inflexible and 30 percent call him courageous.
Only 31 percent of voters approve of the budget agreement, while 37 percent disapprove and 31 percent aren't sure, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Rendell is most responsible for the impasse, 27 percent say, as 21 percent blame legislative Republicans; 9 percent legislative Democrats and 30 percent say they are equally to blame.
In the 2010 race for Governor, State Attorney General Tom Corbett's edge in name recognition gives him wide leads in the race for the Republican nomination and over two of the leading Democratic contenders in trial heats.
"Gov. Ed Rendell remains at the low ebb of his governorship when it comes to public opinion, perhaps not surprising given the lengthy budget stalemate. He does better with women, who disapprove 49 - 44 percent, than with men, who disapprove 54 - 41 percent. The legislature's rating, where 27 percent approve and 64 percent disapprove, is even worse," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"But since the Governor is term-limited and voters tend to like their own representative or senator much better than the overall body, it's not clear if the budget hassle in Harrisburg will have a major impact on Pennsylvania politics, at least for the 2010 elections."
Pennsylvania voters split 43 - 44 percent on whether they wanted the budget to cut more spending or believing that further cuts would jeopardize vital state services. And 57 percent say that while it was not a perfect budget, they are relieved that the state finally has one. One-third, 33 percent, say lawmakers and the Governor should have kept working.
By an overwhelming 67 - 27 percent margin, voters back the idea of allowing the state's existing casinos to offer table games such as poker and blackjack as a way to increase the revenue that goes to the state.
Attorney General Corbett is the one candidate for Governor relatively well-known to Pennsylvanians. A total of 43 percent of voters - including 60 percent of Republicans - view him favorably. Only 7 percent overall and 2 percent of GOPers view him unfavorably.
That's why he leads U.S. Rep. Jim Gerlach, the other major candidate for the GOP nomination, by a 42 - 13 percent margin in a trial heat among registered Republicans.
With 46 percent of Democrats undecided, there is no clear leader in the race for the Democratic nomination to succeed Rendell. Three candidates - Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato at 14 percent, Montgomery County Commissioner Joe Hoeffel, the party's U.S. Senate nominee in 2004 with 12 percent, and State Auditor General Jack Wagner at11 percent - are bunched together, with Scranton Mayor Chris Doherty at 8 percent and businessman Tom Knox at 5 percent.
"The Democratic race for Governor is wide open," said Brown. "The candidates just aren't that visible to most voters and that race is still far, far away from even having a front- runner. The Republicans are another story. Corbett has a large lead and although it is certainly not insurmountable, Congressman Gerlach certainly has his work cut out for him."
In general election trial heats, Corbett would defeat Onorato 47 - 28 percent and Wagner 44 - 29 percent if the election were held today.
From September 22 - 28, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,100 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. The survey includes 465 Republicans and 479 Democrats, each with a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
2. (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for governor were being held today and the candidates were Dan Onorato, Jack Wagner, Tom Knox, Joe Hoeffel and Chris Doherty, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED DEMS.. Tot Men Wom Onorato 14% 13% 15% Wagner 11 14 9 Knox 5 3 6 Hoeffel 12 16 9 Doherty 8 12 5 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 5 2 DK/NA 46 37 53
3. (If registered Republican) If the 2010 Repubilcan primary for governor were being held today and the candidates were Jim Gerlach and Tom Corbett, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED REPS.. Tot Men Wom Gerlach 13% 18% 8% Corbett 42 48 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 - DK/NA 43 31 56
TREND: (If registered Republican) If the 2010 Republican primary for governor were being held today and the candidates were Jim Gerlach, Tom Corbett, and Pat Meehan, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED REPS Sep 30 Jul 21 2009 2009 Gerlach 13 15 Corbett 42 38 Meehan na 9 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - DK/NA 43 37
6. If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were Dan Onorato the Democrat and Tom Corbett the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Onorato 28% 4% 57% 18% 25% 30% 30% Corbett 47 77 19 46 55 39 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 - 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 1 1 1 DK/NA 24 18 22 33 19 29 20 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Onorato 42% 47% 20% 22% 28% 30% 18% Corbett 39 23 55 48 46 58 52 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 - - - 3 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - 1 1 3 DK/NA 16 30 25 30 26 8 27
7. If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were Jack Wagner the Democrat and Tom Corbett the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Wagner 29% 4% 59% 22% 28% 30% 33% Corbett 44 78 15 41 53 36 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 - 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 25 17 25 34 18 31 19 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Wagner 39% 51% 24% 23% 26% 28% 22% Corbett 37 21 49 49 47 52 49 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 - - - - 3 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - 2 - 1 2 2 DK/NA 21 28 25 28 26 15 27
11. Is your opinion of - Jim Gerlach favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 13% 22% 6% 14% 17% 9% 13% Unfavorable 6 5 8 4 5 6 4 Hvn't hrd enough 80 71 85 82 75 84 79 REFUSED 2 2 2 1 2 1 4 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 3% 15% 12% 30% 12% 4% 10% Unfavorable - 8 5 13 4 3 3 Hvn't hrd enough 93 77 82 57 84 90 84 REFUSED 4 - 1 - - 3 3
TREND: Is your opinion of - Jim Gerlach favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Sep 30 Jul 21 May 28 2009 2009 2009 Favorable 13 16 15 Unfavorable 6 6 5 Hvn't hrd enough 80 78 79 REFUSED 2 1 1
12. Is your opinion of - Dan Onorato favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 17% 10% 23% 15% 15% 19% 16% Unfavorable 11 17 5 12 13 9 19 Hvn't hrd enough 71 71 72 70 71 71 63 REFUSED 2 3 - 2 2 2 1 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 55% 12% 5% 9% 23% 30% 5% Unfavorable 27 5 4 4 16 29 4 Hvn't hrd enough 14 80 91 87 59 39 90 REFUSED 3 3 - - 2 3 2
TREND: Is your opinion of - Dan Onorato favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Sep 30 Jul 21 2009 2009 Favorable 17 16 Unfavorable 11 6 Hvn't hrd enough 71 78 REFUSED 2 1
13. Is your opinion of - Jack Wagner favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 22% 15% 31% 18% 25% 18% 27% Unfavorable 6 11 3 6 8 5 9 Hvn't hrd enough 71 73 65 74 66 76 64 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 - 1 - Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 47% 25% 13% 12% 25% 36% 13% Unfavorable 17 - 2 7 7 12 4 Hvn't hrd enough 36 72 85 81 68 52 82 REFUSED 1 3 - - - - 1
TREND: Is your opinion of - Jack Wagner favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Sep 30 Jul 21 2009 2009 Favorable 22 18 Unfavorable 6 4 Hvn't hrd enough 71 76 REFUSED 1 1
14. Is your opinion of - Tom Knox favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 10% 9% 10% 10% 12% 7% 15% Unfavorable 4 2 5 7 5 3 5 Hvn't hrd enough 85 87 85 83 82 88 79 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 - 1 1 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 7% 19% 8% 18% 5% 3% 5% Unfavorable 3 16 2 6 2 1 1 Hvn't hrd enough 89 64 90 75 92 96 92 REFUSED - 2 1 - - 1 1
TREND: Is your opinion of - Tom Knox favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Sep 30 Jul 21 2009 2009 Favorable 10 10 Unfavorable 4 4 Hvn't hrd enough 85 85 REFUSED 1 1
15. Is your opinion of - Tom Corbett favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 43% 60% 28% 44% 53% 34% 47% Unfavorable 7 2 10 7 7 6 12 Hvn't hrd enough 49 37 61 48 40 57 40 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 50% 25% 48% 40% 43% 55% 45% Unfavorable 4 12 7 6 6 5 6 Hvn't hrd enough 45 62 41 53 50 39 49 REFUSED 1 2 4 1 1 1 1
TREND: Is your opinion of - Tom Corbett favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Sep 30 Jul 21 2009 2009 Favorable 43 38 Unfavorable 7 6 Hvn't hrd enough 49 55 REFUSED 1 1
16. Is your opinion of - Chris Doherty favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 10% 6% 15% 8% 11% 8% 4% Unfavorable 4 4 3 4 4 3 5 Hvn't hrd enough 86 88 82 87 83 88 90 REFUSED 1 2 - 1 1 1 2 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 3% 19% 29% 4% 3% 5% 9% Unfavorable 3 4 8 3 2 4 3 Hvn't hrd enough 93 75 63 93 95 90 87 REFUSED 1 3 - - - 1 1
17. Is your opinion of - Joe Hoeffel favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 13% 7% 22% 9% 15% 11% 8% Unfavorable 7 10 3 7 7 6 11 Hvn't hrd enough 80 82 74 83 76 83 78 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 1 1 2 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 3% 26% 15% 30% 4% 6% 3% Unfavorable 5 9 2 17 4 4 2 Hvn't hrd enough 92 64 82 53 92 88 94 REFUSED - 1 1 - - 1 1
18. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling his job as governor?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 42% 22% 62% 46% 41% 44% 41% Disapprove 51 72 30 50 54 49 57 DK/NA 6 6 8 4 6 7 2 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 38% 74% 37% 64% 29% 21% 29% Disapprove 49 25 59 32 62 67 65 DK/NA 13 1 5 4 9 12 6
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling his job as governor?
APPROVE....... DIS... High Low High Sep 30 Jul 21 May 28 May 4 Feb 7 Jul 21 Jul 21 2009 2009 2009 2009 2007 2009 2009 Approve 42 39 54 53 61 39 39 Disapprove 51 53 37 38 30 53 53 DK/NA 6 8 9 9 9 8 8
19. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 27% 26% 31% 25% 24% 30% 31% Disapprove 64 65 60 69 71 58 65 DK/NA 9 10 9 6 6 12 5 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 19% 38% 24% 38% 23% 24% 20% Disapprove 73 55 67 51 70 72 69 DK/NA 8 7 9 12 6 4 11
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
APPROVE..... High Low Sep 30 Jul 21 May 28 May 4 Mar 25 Apr 10 Oct 5 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2003 2005 Approve 27 27 42 42 37 49 26 Disapprove 64 57 40 40 43 24 60 DK/NA 9 15 18 17 20 27 14
23. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Pennsylvania today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Very satisfied 2% 2% 3% 2% 3% 2% 3% Smwht satisfied 37 31 46 35 34 40 34 Smwht dissatisfied 36 36 39 32 38 34 36 Very dissatisfied 23 30 11 29 24 22 27 DK/NA 1 1 1 2 1 2 - Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Very satisfied 6% 4% 1% 3% - 2% 2% Smwht satisfied 36 35 37 59 33 25 29 Smwht dissatisfied 30 51 38 24 34 41 38 Very dissatisfied 29 6 24 12 33 32 31 DK/NA - 4 - 2 - - 1
TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Pennsylvania today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
VERY+SMWHT.... High Low Sep 30 Jul 21 May 28 May 4 Mar 25 Jun 5 Sep 30 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2002 2009 Very satisfied 2 3 6 6 4 8 2 Smwht satisfied 37 38 50 53 47 60 37 Smwht dissatisfied 36 35 29 27 31 22 36 Very dissatisfied 23 22 13 13 18 8 23 DK/NA 1 1 2 2 2 3 1
26. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling the economy?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 34% 24% 48% 31% 34% 33% 34% Disapprove 60 73 43 62 60 59 63 DK/NA 7 3 9 7 6 7 3 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 26% 46% 32% 56% 24% 19% 24% Disapprove 70 47 57 39 68 73 69 DK/NA 4 7 11 5 8 8 6
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling the economy?
Sep 30 Jul 21 Mar 25 Feb 12 2009 2009 2009 2009 Approve 34 33 44 42 Disapprove 60 60 43 47 DK/NA 7 7 14 11
28. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling the state budget?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 26% 10% 39% 29% 25% 26% 24% Disapprove 68 85 54 63 71 65 73 DK/NA 7 5 7 7 4 9 3 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 15% 47% 19% 46% 19% 9% 17% Disapprove 76 48 74 49 77 85 74 DK/NA 8 4 8 5 4 6 9
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling the state budget?
APPROVE....... High Low Sep 30 Jul 21 Feb 11 Aug 5 Aug 22 Jul 13 Sep 30 2009 2009 2009 2008 2007 2004 2009 Approve 26 28 42 40 43 45 26 Disapprove 68 64 43 47 44 38 68 DK/NA 7 8 15 13 12 17 7
31. Who do you think is most to blame for the state's failure to pass a budget on time - Governor Rendell, Republicans in the legislature or Democrats in the legislature?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Governor Rendell 27% 40% 16% 29% 31% 24% 36% Reps in leg 21 5 45 10 18 23 23 Dems in leg 9 19 3 7 11 8 4 EQUAL BLAME(VOL) 30 26 27 39 30 30 29 DK/NA 13 10 10 15 10 15 8 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Governor Rendell 34% 20% 28% 12% 31% 37% 33% Reps in leg 14 40 24 25 14 12 15 Dems in leg 7 9 3 16 9 9 8 EQUAL BLAME(VOL) 31 21 36 27 35 34 30 DK/NA 15 10 8 19 11 7 14
TREND: Who do you think is most to blame for the state's failure to pass a budget - Governor Rendell, Republicans in the legislature, or Democrats in the legislature? (*failure to pass a budget on time)
Sep 30 Jul 21 2009 2009 Rendell 27 30 Reps in legislature 21 17 Dems in legislature 9 11 EQUAL BLAME(VOL) 30 28 DK/NA 13 13
32. How much have you heard or read about the budget agreement reached by Governor Rendell, the Democrats in the state legislature, and state senate Republicans? A lot, some, not much, or nothing at all?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds A lot 15% 15% 15% 15% 17% 13% 19% Some 45 50 41 46 44 46 43 Not much 31 27 31 34 29 32 32 Nothing at all 8 7 11 5 9 8 6 DK/NA 1 - 1 1 - 1 - Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl A lot 17% 16% 14% 11% 12% 18% 17% Some 35 40 50 50 50 47 43 Not much 26 34 26 34 35 30 31 Nothing at all 19 11 9 5 3 4 8 DK/NA 2 - 2 - - 1 1
33. Do you approve or disapprove of this budget agreement?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 31% 20% 42% 32% 35% 27% 35% Disapprove 37 51 23 39 41 34 41 DK/NA 31 29 34 29 24 39 24 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 16% 56% 27% 44% 32% 26% 19% Disapprove 46 24 41 29 45 38 42 DK/NA 38 20 32 27 23 36 38
34. Which comes closer to your point of view - the state budget should have cut more spending or any additional cuts in spending would have jeopardized vital state services?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Cut more spending 43% 58% 27% 47% 53% 33% 39% Jeopardized services 44 29 59 42 38 50 55 DK/NA 13 13 14 11 9 17 5 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Cut more spending 49% 23% 52% 44% 48% 46% 42% Jeopardized services 31 71 37 51 37 34 41 DK/NA 20 6 11 5 15 20 16
35. Do you believe Governor Rendell showed courage in the budget battle or do you think he was too inflexible?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Showed courage 30% 18% 46% 27% 28% 32% 28% Too inflexible 53 68 38 54 58 48 60 DK/NA 17 14 16 18 14 19 12 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Showed courage 18% 42% 33% 49% 19% 15% 25% Too inflexible 57 45 50 35 63 72 59 DK/NA 25 13 17 15 18 14 17
36. Which comes closer to your point of view - this isn't a perfect budget, but I'm relieved the state finally has one or this budget has big problems and the state should have kept working on it no matter how long it took?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Relieved 57% 45% 69% 59% 54% 60% 58% Shd hv kept working 33 43 22 32 37 28 33 DK/NA 10 12 9 9 9 12 9 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Relieved 39% 68% 49% 69% 50% 55% 58% Shd hv kept working 47 29 42 26 31 37 27 DK/NA 14 3 10 5 18 8 15
37. To help balance the state budget, would you support or oppose allowing existing casinos to offer blackjack and poker with the state taking a share of the profits?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Support 67% 60% 74% 71% 76% 59% 77% Oppose 27 34 19 26 21 33 19 DK/NA 6 6 7 3 4 8 4 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Support 72% 69% 73% 68% 65% 74% 58% Oppose 19 27 24 27 29 20 35 DK/NA 9 4 3 5 7 6 7