Pennsylvania (PA) Poll * December 17, 2009 * Corbett Has Early Lead In Penn - Quinnipiac University

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December 17, 2009 - Corbett Has Early Lead In Pennsylvania Governor's Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Strong Support For Medical Marijuana

Word format Pennsylvania Attorney General Tom Corbett has a 38 - 12 percent lead over Jim Gerlach for the Republican nomination for governor and holds double-digit leads over three of the top candidates in the wide-open race for the Democratic nomination, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
Pennsylvania voters say 59 - 35 percent that allowing marijuana to be used for medical purposes is a good idea, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.
Term-limited Gov. Ed Rendell, who cannot seek a third term, gets a negative 43 - 49 percent job approval rating, a trend that began in July when the state lived through a three-month budget stalemate that turned off voters of both parties.
The State Legislature, with which Gov. Rendell feuded during the budget standoff, gets a much lower 25 - 64 percent negative job approval, its worst score ever.
"Fifty percent of Pennsylvania voters don't know enough about Attorney General Tom Corbett to form an opinion. For all the other candidates, the 'don't know enough' number ranges from 72 to 88 percent," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "That edge in name recognition is an obvious plus for Corbett. But what is interesting is that the other candidates have not been making much progress, either in trial heats against Corbett, or in greatly improving their name recognition."
In the five-way race for the Democratic nomination for Governor, Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato leads the field with 14 percent of the vote while none of the others crack double-digits. Most voters, 59 percent, are undecided.
"All of the candidates are so unknown to most Democrats that it is anyone's guess what will happen," said Brown. "One thing is for sure; with five months until the May 18, 2010 primary, none of the candidates is even close to separating themselves from the pack."
Trailing Onorato in the Democratic race are 2004 U.S. Senate nominee Joe Hoeffel with 8 percent, State Auditor General Jack Wagner with 7 percent, Scranton Mayor Chris Doherty with 6 percent and Philadelphia businessman Tom Knox with 5 percent.
In general election matchups, Corbett leads Onorato 45 - 30 percent, Wagner 43 - 33 percent and Hoeffel 46 - 30 percent.
Medical Marijuana
Support for legalizing medical marijuana is 67 - 26 percent among Democrats and 61 - 33 percent among independent voters, while Republicans split with 49 percent in favor and 47 percent opposed. Medical marijuana wins support from all age groups, ranging from 62 - 35 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old to 56 - 38 percent among voters over 55.
Gov. Rendell's poor job approval rating seems tied to his handling of the economy, on which voters give him a negative 38 - 54 percent approval. That's a 16-point negative, compared to a six-point negative on his overall job approval.
"Although the Governor remains popular with Democrats who give him a 63 percent approval on his overall job performance, among independents, he gets approval from only 44 percent, and not surprisingly, just 21 percent of Republicans feel that way," said Brown. "His support among union households - a bedrock of the Democratic Party - is just 37 percent. But these numbers shouldn't be all that surprising since his counterpart to the east, New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine, was booted from office last month and in Ohio, Gov. Ted Strickland faces a strong challenge for reelection."
From December 8 - 14, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,381 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. The survey includes 588 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points and 619 Democrats, each with a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.
1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Dan Onorato, Jack Wagner, Tom Knox, Joe Hoeffel and Chris Doherty, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED DEMS.. Tot Men Wom Onorato 14% 11% 16% Wagner 7 7 7 Knox 5 5 5 Hoeffel 8 12 5 Doherty 6 5 6 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 DK/NA 59 57 59
TREND:(If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Dan Onorato, Jack Wagner, Tom Knox, Joe Hoeffel, and Chris Doherty, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED DEMS Dec 17 Sep 30 2009 2009 Onorato 14 14 Wagner 7 11 Knox 5 5 Hoeffel 8 12 Doherty 6 8 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 3 DK/NA 59 46
3. (If registered Republican) If the 2010 Republican primary for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Jim Gerlach and Tom Corbett, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED REPS.. Tot Men Wom Gerlach 12% 14% 9% Corbett 38 38 38 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 3 DK/NA 47 45 49
TREND: (If registered Republican) If the 2010 Republican primary for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Jim Gerlach, Tom Corbett, and Pat Meehan, for whom would you vote?
REGISTERED REPS....... Dec 17 Sep 30 Jul 21 2009 2009 2009 Gerlach 12 13 15 Corbett 38 42 38 Meehan na na 9 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 - DK/NA 47 43 37
6. If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Dan Onorato the Democrat and Tom Corbett the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Onorato 30% 4% 63% 20% 26% 34% 31% Corbett 45 78 14 48 52 39 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 2 1 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 DK/NA 22 16 21 30 20 24 25 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Onorato 45% 44% 26% 22% 31% 41% 20% Corbett 41 25 47 45 52 38 56 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 6 1 - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 1 2 1 1 1 DK/NA 10 25 26 31 15 20 22
TREND: If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were Dan Onorato the Democrat and Tom Corbett the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Dec 17 Sep 30 2009 2009 Onorato 30 28 Corbett 45 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 DK/NA 22 24
7. If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Jack Wagner the Democrat and Tom Corbett the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Wagner 33% 6% 65% 25% 28% 37% 37% Corbett 43 77 14 40 49 37 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 1 1 - DK/NA 23 15 21 33 22 24 26 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Wagner 43% 54% 30% 21% 30% 44% 23% Corbett 37 23 42 44 48 36 55 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 1 - - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 3 4 - - DK/NA 17 22 27 32 18 19 20
TREND: If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were Jack Wagner the Democrat and Tom Corbett the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Dec 17 Sep 30 2009 2009 Wagner 33 29 Corbett 43 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 DK/NA 23 25
8. If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Joe Hoeffel the Democrat and Tom Corbett the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Hoeffel 30% 5% 62% 19% 26% 33% 36% Corbett 46 79 16 46 51 41 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 - - 2 - DK/NA 23 16 20 33 22 23 24 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Hoeffel 31% 62% 29% 27% 21% 28% 21% Corbett 48 19 43 43 56 48 57 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - - 1 - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - 1 2 1 3 - DK/NA 19 20 28 27 22 20 21
12. Is your opinion of - Jim Gerlach favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 10% 12% 7% 11% 13% 7% 8% Unfavorable 5 3 5 5 6 5 5 Hvn't hrd enough 83 84 86 82 80 87 87 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 2% 13% 8% 20% 4% 7% 10% Unfavorable 3 4 2 15 1 2 4 Hvn't hrd enough 94 81 88 65 94 90 85 REFUSED 1 1 2 1 - - 1
TREND: Is your opinion of - Jim Gerlach favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Dec 17 Sep 30 Jul 21 May 28 2009 2009 2009 2009 Favorable 10 13 16 15 Unfavorable 5 6 6 5 Hvn't hrd enough 83 80 78 79 REFUSED 1 2 1 1
13. Is your opinion of - Dan Onorato favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 18% 9% 26% 17% 16% 19% 16% Unfavorable 9 11 6 12 10 8 7 Hvn't hrd enough 72 80 66 70 72 73 77 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 - Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 49% 5% 8% 8% 22% 44% 8% Unfavorable 33 5 2 1 9 19 4 Hvn't hrd enough 14 90 90 91 67 36 87 REFUSED 3 - 1 - 1 2 1
TREND: Is your opinion of - Dan Onorato favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Dec 17 Sep 30 Jul 21 2009 2009 2009 Favorable 18 17 16 Unfavorable 9 11 6 Hvn't hrd enough 72 71 78 REFUSED 1 2 1
14. Is your opinion of - Jack Wagner favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 22% 15% 27% 24% 23% 20% 22% Unfavorable 5 7 3 5 5 4 3 Hvn't hrd enough 72 77 69 70 70 75 73 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 41% 16% 20% 10% 26% 34% 17% Unfavorable 12 1 5 3 5 5 4 Hvn't hrd enough 45 82 74 86 67 60 78 REFUSED 2 1 1 1 2 2 1
TREND: Is your opinion of - Jack Wagner favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Dec 17 Sep 30 Jul 21 2009 2009 2009 Favorable 22 22 18 Unfavorable 5 6 4 Hvn't hrd enough 72 71 76 REFUSED 1 1 1
15. Is your opinion of - Tom Knox favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 9% 9% 11% 7% 9% 9% 8% Unfavorable 4 3 4 4 5 3 2 Hvn't hrd enough 87 87 85 88 86 87 89 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 1 1 - Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 4% 26% 5% 11% 2% 2% 9% Unfavorable 1 9 1 6 - - 4 Hvn't hrd enough 94 63 93 83 96 97 86 REFUSED - 2 1 - 1 - 1
TREND: Is your opinion of - Tom Knox favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Dec 17 Sep 30 Jul 21 2009 2009 2009 Favorable 9 10 10 Unfavorable 4 4 4 Hvn't hrd enough 87 85 85 REFUSED 1 1 1
16. Is your opinion of - Tom Corbett favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 43% 63% 24% 45% 50% 37% 37% Unfavorable 6 4 8 7 7 6 8 Hvn't hrd enough 50 32 68 47 43 56 54 REFUSED 1 1 - 2 1 1 1 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 49% 27% 39% 37% 50% 44% 51% Unfavorable 10 6 9 4 5 9 5 Hvn't hrd enough 39 67 51 58 44 47 43 REFUSED 2 - 2 - 1 - 2
TREND: Is your opinion of - Tom Corbett favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Dec 17 Sep 30 Jul 21 2009 2009 2009 Favorable 43 43 38 Unfavorable 6 7 6 Hvn't hrd enough 50 49 55 REFUSED 1 1 1
17. Is your opinion of - Chris Doherty favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 8% 5% 12% 5% 6% 9% 7% Unfavorable 4 3 4 3 4 3 3 Hvn't hrd enough 88 92 83 91 89 87 90 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 1% 7% 21% 5% 6% 6% 8% Unfavorable 1 3 13 2 3 1 3 Hvn't hrd enough 97 89 64 92 91 91 88 REFUSED - - 1 1 - 2 1
TREND: Is your opinion of - Chris Doherty favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Dec 17 Sep 30 2009 2009 Favorable 8 10 Unfavorable 4 4 Hvn't hrd enough 88 86 REFUSED 1 1
18. Is your opinion of - Joe Hoeffel favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Favorable 13% 8% 20% 9% 13% 13% 13% Unfavorable 7 10 1 10 8 6 6 Hvn't hrd enough 79 81 78 81 78 80 80 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 1 1 2 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Favorable 11% 30% 10% 23% 3% 7% 5% Unfavorable 4 7 3 20 - - 7 Hvn't hrd enough 84 63 86 56 96 92 87 REFUSED - - 2 1 - 1 1
TREND: Is your opinion of - Joe Hoeffel favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Dec 17 Sep 30 2009 2009 Favorable 13 13 Unfavorable 7 7 Hvn't hrd enough 79 80 REFUSED 1 1
19. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling his job as Governor?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 43% 21% 63% 44% 43% 43% 37% Disapprove 49 72 29 50 50 49 53 DK/NA 7 7 8 6 7 8 10 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 30% 73% 45% 62% 29% 34% 29% Disapprove 65 26 46 29 59 60 62 DK/NA 5 1 9 9 11 6 9
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling his job as governor?
APPROVE....... DIS... High Low High Dec 17 Sep 30 Jul 21 May 28 Feb 7 Jul 21 Jul 21 2009 2009 2009 2009 2007 2009 2009 Approve 43 42 39 54 61 39 39 Disapprove 49 51 53 37 30 53 53 DK/NA 7 6 8 9 9 8 8
20. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 25% 19% 35% 21% 22% 27% 22% Disapprove 64 71 54 68 70 59 70 DK/NA 11 10 11 11 7 14 8 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 12% 40% 26% 26% 29% 25% 20% Disapprove 85 47 60 57 52 68 73 DK/NA 3 13 14 16 18 7 7
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
APPROVE..... High Low Dec 17 Sep 30 Jul 21 May 28 May 4 Apr 10 Dec 17 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2003 2009 Approve 25 27 27 42 42 49 25 Disapprove 64 64 57 40 40 24 64 DK/NA 11 9 15 18 17 27 11
24. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Pennsylvania today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Very satisfied 4% 1% 8% 1% 4% 3% 2% Smwht satisfied 38 30 47 38 37 38 40 Smwht dissatisfied 38 46 30 37 37 38 35 Very dissatisfied 19 23 13 22 20 19 20 DK/NA 2 - 2 3 1 2 3 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Very satisfied 2% 5% 4% 6% - 5% 2% Smwht satisfied 34 50 42 44 40 30 30 Smwht dissatisfied 44 34 33 36 38 34 42 Very dissatisfied 19 11 17 11 20 30 25 DK/NA - 1 4 3 1 - 1
TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Pennsylvania today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
VERY+SMWHT.... High Low Dec 17 Sep 30 Jul 21 May 28 May 4 Jun 5 Sep 30 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2002 2009 Very satisfied 4 2 3 6 6 8 2 Smwht satisfied 38 37 38 50 53 60 37 Smwht dissatisfied 38 36 35 29 27 22 36 Very dissatisfied 19 23 22 13 13 8 23 DK/NA 2 1 1 2 2 3 1
27. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling the economy?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Approve 38% 22% 54% 38% 41% 35% 37% Disapprove 54 74 37 54 53 54 53 DK/NA 8 5 9 9 5 10 10 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 25% 64% 40% 56% 21% 30% 28% Disapprove 68 29 52 34 71 65 65 DK/NA 7 7 7 11 8 5 8
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ed Rendell is handling the economy?
Dec 17 Sep 30 Jul 21 Mar 25 Feb 12 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Approve 38 34 33 44 42 Disapprove 54 60 60 43 47 DK/NA 8 7 7 14 11
31. There is a proposal in the state legislature that would allow adults to legally use marijuana for medical purposes if their doctor prescribes it. Do you think this is a good idea or a bad idea?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Good idea 59% 49% 67% 61% 61% 57% 62% Bad idea 35 47 26 33 34 36 32 DK/NA 6 4 7 6 4 7 6 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Good idea 66% 60% 72% 65% 47% 53% 51% Bad idea 23 31 21 31 45 43 45 DK/NA 11 9 6 4 7 4 4 AGE IN YRS....... INCOME............. NoColl College 18-34 35-54 55+ <50 50-100 >100K Degree Degree Good idea 62% 61% 56% 57% 61% 65% 59% 61% Bad idea 35 33 38 36 35 32 35 34 DK/NA 3 6 7 8 3 4 6 5